Proposes UICR to improve novelty in recommendation systems without sacrificing relevance.
problem Balancing relevance and novelty in recommendation systems is challenging, especially for long-tail items.
method Introduces uncertainty modeling in the matching stage and multi-task modeling of model and index uncertainty.
result Improves novelty without sacrificing relevance, as shown by experimental results and online A/B tests.
A new method for estimating uncertainties in neural ODEs without numerical integration.
problem Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainties in neural ODEs.
method Distributional Gradient Matching (DGM) algorithm that jointly trains a smoother and a dynamics model.
result Significantly more accurate predictions compared to traditional methods.
This paper develops a learning framework for optimal strategies in multi-stage decentralized matching markets.
problem Optimal strategies in multi-stage decentralized matching markets with uncertain preferences.
method Nonparametric statistical approach and variational analysis.
result Participants can be better off with multi-stage matching compared to single-stage matching.
Algorithm identifies optimal stable matching in uncertain two-sided markets.
problem Sequential learning in two-sided markets with unknown preferences.
method Pure exploration approach with elimination-based algorithms exploiting partial preference information.
result Identification of pervasive stable matching for optimal stable matching identification.
Domain adaptation is an important technique to alleviate performance degradation caused by domain shift, e.g., when training and test data come from different domains. Most existing deep adaptation methods focus on reducing domain shift by matching marginal feature distributions through deep transformations on the inpu…
Bayesian framework learns prior from data to quantify uncertainty in MRI reconstruction.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in deep learning solutions for inverse problems.
method Adopting denoising score matching to learn prior from data, using it in an annealed Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo scheme.
result The approach yields high-quality reconstructions and assesses uncertainty on specific features.
Generative network integrates into ROM for PDEs, matching measurements and estimating uncertainties.
problem Predicting and quantifying uncertainties in numerical simulations of PDEs.
method Generative network (GN) integrated into a reduced-order model (ROM) framework for inverse problems.
result GN-based ROM efficiently quantifies uncertainty and matches measurements with high accuracy.
SMURF-THP improves Transformer Hawkes process models by providing uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification for Transformer Hawkes process predictions.
method Score matching for learning the score function of event arrival times.
result SMURF-THP outperforms likelihood-based methods in confidence calibration.
UM-GNN improves GNN robustness against poisoning attacks.
problem Vulnerability of GNNs to poisoning attacks.
method UM-GNN uses epistemic uncertainties from message passing to build a surrogate predictor.
result UM-GNN achieves significantly improved robustness against poisoning attacks.
The paper addresses statistical inference in matching markets with dependent missingness.
problem Statistical inference for two-sided matching markets with matching-induced dependence.
method Non-convex algorithm based on Grassmannian gradient descent, debiasing and projection framework.
result Near-optimal entrywise convergence rates for various matching mechanisms.
Mix-n-Match improves uncertainty calibration in deep learning.
problem Post-hoc calibration of machine learning classifiers.
method Ensemble and composition strategies to improve accuracy, efficiency, and expressive power.
result Mix-n-Match strategies achieve better data-efficiency and expressive power while maintaining classification accuracy.
Develops a deterministic method to approximate NSDEs for better uncertainty quantification.
problem Computational infeasibility of obtaining well-calibrated uncertainty from NSDEs.
method Bidimensional moment matching algorithm for approximating NSDE transition kernel.
result Deterministic approximation improves uncertainty calibration and prediction accuracy.
Trains neural nets for gamma hedging with model uncertainty.
problem Gamma hedging with model mismatch.
method Trains neural networks using loss functions that reward model uncertainty.
result Networks can learn optimal gamma hedging even with model mismatch.
Uncertainty quantification has been a core of the statistical machine learning, but its computational bottleneck has been a serious challenge for both Bayesians and frequentists. We propose a model-based framework in quantifying uncertainty, called predictive-matching Generative Parameter Sampler (GPS). This procedure …
The study evaluates different probability models for uncertainty visualization using entropy calculations.
problem Choosing the right probability model affects memory use, run time, and accuracy in uncertainty visualization.
method Entropy calculation on ensemble data to compare various probability models (uniform, Gaussian, histogram, quantile).
result Models matching the ensemble data distribution have the lowest entropy, indicating better accuracy.
Deep learning calibrates CO2 storage formations from seismic and well data.
problem Uncertainty in CO2 storage formation properties.
method Two deep learning models for well and seismic data, integrated into MCMC history matching.
result Significant uncertainty reduction in key parameters and accurate CO2 plume predictions.
GAPA method provides efficient uncertainty quantification for pretrained networks.
problem Reliable uncertainty estimates for pretrained models are challenging.
method Post-hoc Gaussian Process Activations (GAPA) method that shifts Bayesian modeling from weights to activations.
result GAPA method provides efficient uncertainty quantification without altering the backbone's predictions.
New algorithms learn stable matchings from uncertain user preferences.
problem Learning stable matchings from uncertain user preferences.
method Stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, incentive-aware learning objective, primal-dual formulation.
result Near-optimal regret bounds for learning stable matchings.
Study examines time-varying betas and their volatility in bank interest income and expense margins.
problem Understanding the variability of bank betas and their impact on net interest margins.
method Used state-space methods to estimate time-varying betas and conditional volatility.
result Substantial variation in interest income and expense betas, leading to varying net interest margin coefficients.
Single deep model detects out-of-distribution data with single forward pass.
problem Detecting out-of-distribution data points in neural networks.
method Deterministic uncertainty quantification (DUQ) using gradient penalty for reliable detection.
result Single model outperforms or matches ensemble methods in out-of-distribution detection.
With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account for the stochasticity of models is challenging, it is common to augment prediction…
Instance embeddings are an efficient and versatile image representation that facilitates applications like recognition, verification, retrieval, and clustering. Many metric learning methods represent the input as a single point in the embedding space. Often the distance between points is used as a proxy for match confi…
IVON optimizes large neural networks, matching or outperforming Adam.
problem The inefficacy of variational learning in large neural networks.
method Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) optimizer.
result IVON consistently matches or outperforms Adam for large networks.
New method combines ODE filters and numerical quadrature to propagate model uncertainty.
problem Propagation of model uncertainty in ODE solutions with uncertain parameters.
method Combining ODE filters with numerical quadrature.
result Effective propagation of both numerical and parametric uncertainty.
Bayesian Dark Knowledge is a method for compressing the posterior predictive distribution of a neural network model into a more compact form. Specifically, the method attempts to compress a Monte Carlo approximation to the parameter posterior into a single network representing the posterior predictive distribution. Fur…
Proposes measures for uncertainty quantification using proper scoring rules.
problem Uncertainty quantification for prediction tasks.
method Decomposes proper scoring rules into divergence and entropy components, tailoring uncertainty quantification to specific tasks.
result Flexibility in uncertainty quantification improves performance in selective prediction and active learning.
Framework disentangles deep feature uncertainty for efficient inference.
problem Inference-time uncertainty estimation for reliable decision-making.
method Uncertainty-Guided Inference-Time Selection framework.
result Significantly tighter prediction intervals and 60% compute reduction.
We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving closed-form access to predictive uncertainty. We employ it to model aleatoric un…
This paper reviews methods for constructing confidence intervals for error rates in 1:1 matching tasks.
problem Challenges in assessing uncertainty of error rates in matching algorithms, especially when data are dependent and error rates are low.
method Derives and examines statistical properties of methods for constructing confidence intervals for error rates in 1:1 matching tasks.
result Coverage and interval width vary with sample size, error rates, and data dependence.
A method to estimate high order derivatives of data distributions from samples.
problem Estimating high order derivatives of data distributions efficiently and accurately.
method Generalizing denoising score matching via Tweedie's formula to estimate higher order derivatives.
result Models trained with the proposed method can approximate second order derivatives more efficiently and accurately than via automatic differentiation.
We study how information perturbations can destabilize two-sided matching markets. In our model, agents arrive on the market over two periods, while agents in the first period do not know the types of those arriving later. Agents already present in the market may match early or wait for the small group of new entrants.…
Single neural networks can match deep ensembles' benefits without the complexity.
problem The effectiveness and necessity of deep ensembles in neural network models.
method Demonstrated limitations of ensemble diversity and OOD performance in deep ensembles compared to a single larger model.
result A single neural network can replicate deep ensembles' benefits in uncertainty quantification and robustness.
Bayesian classification improves with explicit aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Lack of aleatoric uncertainty representation in Bayesian classification.
method Explicitly account for aleatoric uncertainty using a Dirichlet observation model.
result Explicit aleatoric uncertainty improves performance of Bayesian neural networks.
SVGP KAN integrates uncertainty quantification into Kolmogorov-Arnold networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in scientific machine learning models.
method Sparse variational Gaussian process inference with Kolmogorov-Arnold topology.
result Demonstrated ability to distinguish aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in various scientific applications.
Proposes integrating global and local entropy for more reliable LLMs.
problem Uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) leads to unreliable predictions.
method Measures global uncertainty from hidden-state matrices and local uncertainty from tokens, combining them via a multiplicative gate.
result Global-Local Uncertainty (GLU) outperforms unsupervised baselines across multiple models and benchmarks.
The paper argues that uncertainty quantification in ML is application-specific and proposes a flexible family of measures.
problem The need for proper uncertainty quantification in machine learning for safety-critical applications.
method A flexible family of uncertainty measures tailored to specific applications, using proper scoring rules to control characteristics.
result Different uncertainty measures are more suitable for different tasks (e.g., selective prediction, out-of-distribution detection, active learning).
Efficiently matches subgraphs in noisy data without node labels.
problem Subgraph isomorphism in noisy, real-valued graphs.
method Two-step approach: extract topology, then expand matches.
result Realistically sub-linear computational efficiency, robustness to noise.
New method designs fairer transport plans with uncertainty.
problem Designing fair and balanced mass transport plans.
method Hierarchical fully probabilistic design (HFPD) for transport plans.
result Optimal hyperprior for transport plans with uncertain marginals.
Estimates of predictive uncertainty are important for accurate model-based planning and reinforcement learning. However, predictive uncertainties---especially ones derived from modern deep learning systems---can be inaccurate and impose a bottleneck on performance. This paper explores which uncertainties are needed for…
NeuralSurv models survival analysis with Bayesian uncertainty.
problem Capturing time-varying risk relationships in survival analysis.
method Two-stage data-augmentation scheme, mean-field variational algorithm, coordinate-ascent updates, locally linearized Bayesian neural network.
result Delivers superior calibration compared to state-of-the-art models.
PCENet reduces uncertainty in high-dimensional data efficiently.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional data is computationally expensive.
method Two-stage learning process: variational autoencoder for low-dimensional representation, polynomial chaos expansion for mapping.
result Model captures system dynamics, learns under uncertainty, estimates high-dimensional data uncertainty, matches output distribution moments.
MARS meta-learns function scores for improved predictive accuracy and uncertainty.
problem Difficulty in specifying expressive priors for Bayesian meta-learning.
method Meta-learning the score function of data-generating process marginals in the function space.
result State-of-the-art predictive accuracy and improved uncertainty estimates.
Method provides formal guarantees for decomposing model uncertainty.
problem Decomposing model uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components.
method Higher-order calibration using k-snapshots.
result Formal guarantees for aleatoric uncertainty matching real-world distribution.
VGE provides a practical approach to uncertainty estimation in ensemble models.
problem Uncertainty estimation in ensemble models using additive decomposition breaks down.
method Variance-Gated Ensembles (VGE) introduces a differentiable framework with a signal-to-noise gate.
result VGE provides a Variance-Gated Margin Uncertainty (VGMU) score and Variance-Gated Normalization (VGN) layer.
This paper proposes a probabilistic imputation method with uncertainty quantification.
problem Missing value imputation with uncertainty estimation for large datasets.
method Low Rank Gaussian Copula framework that augments PPCA with column-specific transformations.
result The method yields state-of-the-art imputation accuracy and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates.
A novel Laplace-approximated Bayesian Tensor Network Kernel Machine (LA-TNKM) provides principled uncertainty estimates.
problem How to provide principled uncertainty estimates for tensor network kernel machines.
method Employing a linearized Laplace approximation for Bayesian inference.
result Consistently matches or surpasses Gaussian Processes and BNNs across diverse UCI regression benchmarks.
A new framework for PPLS combines noise estimation, optimization, and calibration.
problem Probabilistic PLS models need interpretable latent factors and calibrated uncertainty.
method End-to-end pipeline combining noise estimation, constrained optimization, and prediction calibration.
result Achieves near-nominal coverage and native calibrated uncertainty across benchmarks.
ELUQuant quantifies uncertainties in DIS events using BNNs and MNFs.
problem Uncertainty quantification in Deep Inelastic Scattering (DIS) events.
method Physics-informed Bayesian Neural Network with flow approximated posteriors.
result Effective extraction of kinematic variables x, Q2, and y with detailed event-level uncertainty.