Spatially-aware metrics improve uncertainty evaluation in segmentation.
problem Uncertainty evaluation metrics treat voxels independently, ignoring spatial context.
method Proposed three spatially aware metrics incorporating structural and boundary information.
result Improved alignment with clinically important factors and better discrimination between uncertainty patterns.
Decision-alignment evaluates uncertainty quantification for decision-relevant UQ
problem Evaluation of uncertainty quantification metrics
method Introduce decision-alignment
result Proper scoring rules align with decision utility
Proposes a new framework for uncertainty evaluation in ML classification models.
problem Uncertainty evaluation for ML classification models not addressed by existing metrological guidelines.
method Develops a metrological framework based on probability mass functions and summary statistics.
result Extends the GUM to uncertainty for nominal properties, applicable to ML classification models.
Bayesian approach quantifies uncertainty in LLM evaluations.
problem Statistical uncertainty in evaluating LLM behavior.
method Bayesian evaluation of LLM behavior using probabilistic text generation strategies.
result Bayesian approach provides useful uncertainty quantification about LLM behavior.
New method accounts for uncertainty in medical AI evaluations.
problem Uncertainty in ground truth affects AI model performance estimates.
method Statistical aggregation approach to infer probabilities of medical conditions.
result Performance estimates are significantly lower when uncertainty is accounted for.
As deep learning applications are becoming more and more pervasive in robotics, the question of evaluating the reliability of inferences becomes a central question in the robotics community. This domain, known as predictive uncertainty, has come under the scrutiny of research groups developing Bayesian approaches adapt…
The paper evaluates joint life insurance risk under dependence uncertainty using copulas and convex risk measures.
problem Evaluating risk of joint life insurance products under uncertainty in dependence structure.
method Monotonicity of risk evaluation with concordance order, linear programming for bounds, and numerical analysis.
result Bounds for mean, Value-at-Risk, and Expected Shortfall computed using linear programs.
The paper evaluates and improves uncertainty estimates in neural networks for safety-critical applications.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks for safety-critical systems.
method Proposes a statistical test for evaluating uncertainty realism in neural networks and transfers a classification architecture to image-to-image tasks.
result The variational U-Net architecture significantly improves uncertainty realism in image-to-image tasks compared to a plain model.
Proposes an alternative method for quantifying uncertainty in complex models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in complex models and evaluations.
method Infinitesimally regularizes the training loss to assess downstream uncertainty.
result Provides reliable quantification of uncertainty and calibrated confidence intervals.
Study finds uncertainty estimators weakly correlate with LLM hallucinations.
problem Characterizing the relationship between uncertainty estimators and LLM hallucinations.
method Systematic empirical study of diverse uncertainty estimators across hallucination types and benchmarks.
result Uncertainty estimators weakly correlate with LLM hallucinations, depending on hallucination type and LLM.
Extends insurance-finance arbitrage concept to include model uncertainty.
problem Evaluating hybrid insurance products in uncertain financial markets.
method Introduces robust asymptotic insurance-finance arbitrage and QP-evaluations. result No robust asymptotic insurance-finance arbitrage exists under certain conditions.
Improves reliability of medical diagnosis uncertainty estimates.
problem Label uncertainty in medical diagnosis.
method Post-hoc alpha-calibration method for neural network classifiers. result Significantly enhances reliability of uncertainty estimates.
New research shows calibration error is flawed when dealing with model uncertainty.
problem Current model evaluation techniques conflate model uncertainty with aleatoric uncertainty.
method Posterior predictive checks to evaluate deep learning models.
result Calibration error and variants are incorrect when model uncertainty is present.
We propose orthogonality as a necessary condition for disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
problem Jointly estimating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty is problematic and non-trivial.
method We propose orthogonality as a necessary condition for disentanglement and construct UDE to measure orthogonality and consistency.
result Orthogonality and consistency are necessary and sufficient criteria for disentanglement.
Deep RL evaluation underestimates uncertainty, leading to misleading conclusions.
problem Statistical uncertainty in deep RL performance evaluations is underestimated, leading to misleading conclusions.
method Advocates for reporting interval estimates of aggregate performance and proposes performance profiles to account for variability.
result Substantial discrepancies in prior performance comparisons are revealed, highlighting the need for more rigorous evaluation methods.
Estimates uncertainty in bounding box regression for object detection.
problem Reliable deployment of deep object detectors in safety-critical tasks.
method Training variance networks with energy score as a proper scoring rule.
result Energy score leads to better calibrated and lower entropy predictive distributions.
Safety evaluation of self-driving technologies has been extensively studied. One recent approach uses Monte Carlo based evaluation to estimate the occurrence probabilities of safety-critical events as safety measures. These Monte Carlo samples are generated from stochastic input models constructed based on real-world d…
A rise in popularity of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), attributed to more powerful GPUs and widely available datasets, has seen them being increasingly used within safety-critical domains. One such domain, self-driving, has benefited from significant performance improvements, with millions of miles having been driven wit…
The CLT fails for LLM evaluations with small data, leading to underestimation of uncertainty.
problem Inaccurate uncertainty estimates in LLM evaluations with small datasets.
method Alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods for uncertainty quantification.
result CLT-based methods underestimate uncertainty in small data settings.
New method reduces uncertainty in AI-driven Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Epistemic uncertainty in AI surrogate models affects Monte Carlo sampling outcomes.
method Penalty Ensemble Method (PEM) modifies Metropolis acceptance rule to increase rejection probability in uncertain regions.
result PEM enhances reliability of Monte Carlo simulations by reducing uncertainty propagation.
While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial, for example in automotive applications. In Bayesian deep learning, predictive unc…
Study evaluates quality of uncertainty estimates for neural networks.
problem Lack of principled assessment methods for evaluating uncertainty quality in deep learning.
method Statistical methods of frequentist interval coverage, interval width, and expected calibration error.
result Different UQ methods produce markedly different quality uncertainty estimates.
LiveTradeBench evaluates LLMs in live trading environments.
problem Static benchmarks fail to assess real-world trading ability.
method Live data streaming, portfolio management abstraction, multi-market evaluation.
result LLMs show distinct portfolio styles and adapt to live signals.
New methods needed to evaluate uncertainty estimates in neural networks.
problem Evaluating uncertainty estimates in neural networks is flawed and inconsistent.
method Proposes a simulation-based testing approach to address flaws in current methods.
result Current methods for evaluating uncertainty estimates have significant flaws and cannot accurately compare different methods.
Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing d…
This work evaluates uncertainty in deep Gaussian processes.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep Gaussian processes.
method Hierarchical deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) and Deep Sigma Point Processes (DSPPs) evaluated on regression and classification tasks.
result DSPPs provide strong in-distribution calibration but are less robust under distribution shift compared to ensembles.
Hierarchical framework for model evaluation on leaderboards
problem Uncertainty and variability in model performance across tasks
method Hierarchical framework with task-level and leaderboard-level rank prediction intervals
result Statistically valid and informative model rank intervals
URL benchmark evaluates uncertainty quantification in pretrained models.
problem Need for reliable uncertainty estimates in transferable pretrained models.
method Proposes URL benchmark to measure transferability of representations and uncertainty estimates.
result Transferable uncertainty quantification remains challenging but not contradictory to traditional goals.
New method uses generative models to estimate aleatoric uncertainty without strict data restrictions.
problem Estimating aleatoric uncertainty with limited data distribution or dimensionality.
method Conditional generative models and two metrics for measuring distributional discrepancies.
result Metrics accurately measure conditional distributional discrepancies and train competitive models.
MCU-Net combines U-Net and Monte Carlo Dropout for uncertainty in medical image segmentation.
problem Lack of uncertainty representation in deep learning methods for patient-centered healthcare decisions.
method MCU-Net framework using U-Net and Monte Carlo Dropout with four uncertainty metrics.
result MCU-Net maximizes automated performance and refers truly uncertain cases.
Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs, which learn a distribution over weights, are currently the state-of-the-art for …
New methods improve robust decision-making under uncertainty in off-policy evaluation.
problem Statistical uncertainty and causal considerations in off-policy evaluation.
method Marginal Ratio (MR) estimator, Conformal Off-Policy Prediction (COPP), causal bounds.
result Improved robustness and uncertainty quantification in off-policy decision-making.
A new method improves policy evaluation in RL by tracking value uncertainties.
problem Limitations in existing policy evaluation methods for deep RL tasks.
method KOVA (Kalman Optimization for Value Approximation) based on extended Kalman filter.
result KOVA minimizes a regularized objective function that considers parameter and noisy return uncertainties.
NOMU improves neural network uncertainty estimation.
problem Estimating model uncertainty for neural networks with limited data.
method Introduces NOMU, a two-sub-NN architecture with a designed loss function.
result NOMU outperforms state-of-the-art methods in regression and Bayesian optimization.
Study evaluates machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in complex systems.
problem Accurately quantify epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in complex dynamical systems.
method Examined Gaussian processes, UQ-augmented neural networks (ENN, BNN, D-NN, G-NN) on two model data sets.
result Concluded on model architecture and hyperparameter tuning for improved UQ accuracy.
Benchmark assesses fairness in algorithmic uncertainty, revealing consistent and calibrated estimates improve fairness.
problem Challenges in managing uncertainty in fairness evaluations for predictive algorithms.
method Introduces FairlyUncertain, an axiomatic benchmark for evaluating uncertainty in fairness.
result Consistent and calibrated uncertainty estimates improve fairness without explicit fairness interventions.
Dual representations for robust risk measures and uncertainty sets.
problem Characterizing continuity of robust risk measures and their uncertainty sets.
method Develop dual representations for robust risk measures and uncertainty sets based on distinct geometric assumptions.
result Two dual frameworks for consolidated uncertainty sets are complementary, not interchangeable.
Develops methods to estimate and quantify uncertainty in off-policy evaluation.
problem Uncertainty quantification in off-policy evaluation for new policy deployment.
method Designs a pseudo policy to generate subsamples and applies conformal prediction.
result Valid interval estimators for target policy's return with uncertainty quantification.
The paper extends calibration to sets of probabilistic classifiers, finding many ensembles are poorly calibrated.
problem Evaluating the validity of epistemic uncertainty in sets of probabilistic classifiers.
method Proposed a novel nonparametric calibration test for sets of probabilistic classifiers.
result Ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.
Unified framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in RL.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-stakes reinforcement learning.
method Unified conformal prediction framework integrating distributional RL and conformal calibration.
result Significantly improved coverage and reliability over standard methods.
Bayesian framework evaluates predictors of subjective visual tasks.
problem Evaluating uncertainty in machine learning predictors for tasks with subjective annotations.
method Bayesian framework to estimate epistemic uncertainty from human labels.
result Framework successfully applied to four image classification tasks.
Paper proposes a new method to evaluate joint risk under uncertainty.
problem Evaluating joint risk of multiple insurance risks under dependence uncertainty.
method Axiomatic approach to scalar and vector-valued distortion joint risk measures.
result Established a new scalar distortion joint risk measure with positive homogeneity.
VLM judges rank well but score poorly; task difficulty and annotation quality affect interval width.
problem VLMs as judges lack reliability indicators in multimodal evaluations.
method Conformal prediction using score-token log-probabilities.
result Evaluation uncertainty is task-dependent, affecting interval width and reliability.
This study introduces axioms to assess regression uncertainty measures.
problem Limited formal justification and evaluations of uncertainty measures in regression settings.
method Introduces axioms and analyzes entropy- and variance-based measures in a predictive exponential family context.
result Provides a principled foundation for reliable uncertainty assessment in regression.
Bayesian approach for modeling counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
problem Modeling the counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
method Bayesian conditional mean embeddings and novel Bayesian methods for estimating ultimate treatment effect.
result Quantifying epistemic uncertainty in the counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
USeMOC framework reduces expensive simulations for MO optimization with constraints.
problem Efficiently optimizing multi-objective problems with constraints using expensive function evaluations.
method USeMOC framework uses surrogate models to identify promising candidates and selects the best based on uncertainty.
result USeMOC achieves more than 90% reduction in function evaluations for circuit optimization.
Paper decomposes risk into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties and generates predictive uncertainty measures.
problem Unclear relationships between various predictive uncertainty measures in literature.
method Bayesian estimation to decompose risk into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, generating different predictive uncertainty measures.
result Experimental validation confirms usefulness of derived predictive uncertainty measures for detecting out-of-distribution and misclassified instances.
New method reduces over-pessimism in Bayesian control under parameter uncertainty.
problem Over-pessimism in Bayesian control due to misspecified priors.
method Distributionally robust Bayesian control (DRBC) with strong duality and optimization.
result Validated algorithm on synthetic and real data, reducing over-pessimism.