Decision-alignment evaluates uncertainty quantification for decision-relevant UQ
problem Evaluation of uncertainty quantification metrics
method Introduce decision-alignment
result Proper scoring rules align with decision utility
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169,181 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “uncertainty alignment”
Bayesian framework quantifies uncertainty in portfolio temperature alignment.
problem Uncertainty in portfolio temperature alignment models.
method X-Degree Compatibility (XDC) approach with FaIR climate model, adaptive MCMC, deep learning emulator.
result Robust parametric uncertainty quantification for FaIR model.
Aligns uncertainty predictions for domain adaptation using pre-trained deep networks.
problem Domain adaptation with unlabelled target data.
method Adversarial learning to align uncertainty predictions between source and target domains.
result Class prediction uncertainty on target domain matches source domain.
Spatially-aware metrics improve uncertainty evaluation in segmentation.
problem Uncertainty evaluation metrics treat voxels independently, ignoring spatial context.
method Proposed three spatially aware metrics incorporating structural and boundary information.
result Improved alignment with clinically important factors and better discrimination between uncertainty patterns.
ALIEN improves uncertainty estimation of language models by refining entropy-based methods.
problem Overconfidence in uncertainty estimation for language models, especially for difficult inputs.
method ALIEN refines entropy-based uncertainty by aligning it with prediction reliability, using a lightweight uncertainty head.
result ALIEN consistently outperforms strong baselines in detecting incorrect predictions and achieving the lowest calibration error.
Framework controls uncertainty in LLMs without labels or probabilities.
problem Managing uncertainty in black-box LLMs without token-level probability or true labels.
method Integrates generative models, UCP, and conformal alignment to control uncertainty.
result Achieves close-to-nominal coverage and tighter thresholds than split UCP.
On the Need to Align Intent and Implementation in Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learningcs.LG
Clarifies challenges in machine learning uncertainty quantification.
problem Inconsistent terminology and diverse technical requirements for trustworthy uncertainties.
method Examines estimation targets, uncertainty constructs, and problematic mappings.
result Advocates for alignment between intent and implementation in UQ.
CARDS improves decoding efficiency and alignment quality for LLMs.
problem Efficiency bottlenecks in decoding-time alignment for LLMs.
method Cascade Reward Sampling (CARDS) with segment-level rejection sampling and uncertainty-based segmentation.
result Significant improvement in decoding efficiency and alignment quality.
Paper proposes a probabilistic alignment method for domain adaptation.
problem Latent distribution mismatch and miscalibrated uncertainty in adapting large-scale models.
method Bayesian latent transport framework with PAC-Bayesian regularization.
result Reduction in latent manifold discrepancy and improved uncertainty calibration.
Paper addresses online alignment of large language models under uncertain preference feedback.
problem Online alignment of large language models with misspecified preference feedback.
method Formulates an oracle-robust objective as a worst-case optimization problem for log-linear policies, and develops projected stochastic composite updates.
result Shows that the robust objective admits an exact closed-form decomposition and achieves oracle complexity.
Method tackles uncertainty in reward models for LLMs from heterogeneous human feedback.
problem Uncertainty in reward models for LLMs from heterogeneous human feedback.
method Heterogeneous preference framework and alternating gradient descent algorithm.
result Established theoretical guarantees for estimator convergence and asymptotic distribution.
HawkesLLM models text generation with temporal influence, improving semantic alignment under limited memory.
problem Path-dependent uncertainty in agentic text-simulation systems.
method HawkesLLM framework separates temporal influence modeling from text generation, using a multivariate Hawkes process and a language model.
result HawkesLLM improves late-stage semantic alignment under a compact prompt-memory budget.
BIGMACS aligns multiple ocean sediment cores using Bayesian inference and Gaussian process regression.
problem Aligning and synchronizing ages from different ocean sediment cores using multiple proxies.
method BIGMACS uses Bayesian inference and Gaussian process regression to align and integrate age proxies.
result Constructs a new Deep Northeastern Atlantic stack and age models for additional cores.
A Bayesian framework models adversarial uncertainty for robust machine learning.
problem Vulnerability of machine learning models to adversarial attacks.
method Formal Bayesian framework that models adversarial uncertainty through a stochastic channel, articulating probabilistic assumptions.
result Explicitly modeling adversarial uncertainty leads to improved robustification strategies.
FedGTEA learns new tasks in federated learning with task embeddings and alignment.
problem Federated class-incremental learning with task-specific knowledge and model uncertainty.
method Cardinality-Agnostic Task Encoder (CATE) for Gaussian task embeddings, 2-Wasserstein distance for inter-task alignment.
result FedGTEA achieves superior classification performance and mitigates forgetting.
Survey of alignment techniques for large language models.
problem Ensuring large language models align with human values.
method Analysis of diverse alignment methods and training paradigms.
result Preference-based methods offer more flexibility for nuanced alignment.
NE-GMM uses ES and GMM to improve uncertainty quantification.
problem Challenges in estimating mean and variance of complex distributions.
method Integrates Gaussian Mixture Model with Energy Score.
result NE-GMM outperforms in predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
Aligns attention distributions for improved accuracy and robustness.
problem Improving the accuracy and robustness of neural networks using attention mechanisms.
method Alignment attention that encourages key and query distributions to match within each head.
result Alignment attention leads to better accuracy, uncertainty estimation, and robustness across various tasks.
Unified model improves multi-task learning by accounting for temporal misalignment.
problem Poor predictive performance and uncertainty quantification due to temporal misalignment in multi-task learning.
method Uses Gaussian processes to model correlations and includes a monotonic warp of the input data to account for temporal misalignment.
result Improves predictive performance and uncertainty quantification in multi-task learning.
SPECTRA improves probabilistic energy forecasting by separating trends and uncertainties.
problem Interacting uncertainties from renewable intermittency, demand flexibility, market volatility, and weather impact probabilistic forecasts.
method Adaptive state-space exogenous context and temporal-frequency resolution architecture.
result Achieved best CRPS in 14 out of 18 settings, reducing CRPS by 5.74% and upper-tail quantile risk by 7.27%.
New method selects equivariant models using uncertainty metrics.
problem Selecting equivariant models among pretrained ones with varying symmetry biases.
method Uncertainty-aware model selection using frequentist, Bayesian, and calibration-based measures.
result Bayesian model evidence often misaligns with predictive performance.
A new method reduces complexity and uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in complex neural networks.
method Condensed Stein Variational Gradient Descent (cSVGD) method.
result Condensed SVGD provides uncertainty quantification on parameters.
Paper proposes Adversarial CCA for multi-view alignment and generation.
problem Aligning multiple views in cross-view data analysis problems.
method Bayesian perspective, adversarial training for consistent latent encodings.
result ACCA model achieves superior performance in multi-view alignment and generation.
New algorithm improves graph-based active learning by identifying unexplored regions.
problem Improving graph-based active learning by identifying unexplored regions.
method Poisson Reweighted Laplacian Uncertainty Sampling (PWLL) with a diagonal perturbation.
result PWLL effectively identifies unexplored regions in graph-based data.
EBRM improves robustness and generalization of language model rewards.
problem Challenges in capturing complex human preferences and generalizing to unseen data in reward models.
method Energy-Based Reward Model (EBRM) that models reward distribution explicitly, using conflict-aware data filtering, label-noise-aware contrastive training, and hybrid initialization.
result Significant improvements in robustness and generalization, up to 5.97% improvement in safety-critical alignment tasks.
The paper proposes a framework for information-theoretic predictive uncertainty measures.
problem The need for reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty in machine learning.
method Revisiting core concepts, categorizing predictive uncertainty measures based on model and approximation of true distribution.
result Identification of conditions under which certain predictive uncertainty measures excel.
Improved DPO framework penalizes preference uncertainty to avoid overoptimization.
problem Aligning LLMs to human preferences is challenging due to varied, context-dependent, and ambiguous preferences.
method Developed a pessimistic framework for DPO by introducing preference uncertainty penalization schemes.
result Improved overall performance and better completions on high-uncertainty responses compared to vanilla DPO.
Proposes a method for NNs to estimate uncertainty without sampling or OOD data.
problem Calibrated uncertainty measures for safety-critical NNs.
method Evidential priors over Gaussian likelihood for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
result Well-calibrated uncertainty measures on various benchmarks, including complex computer vision tasks.
UDJ-FL framework achieves multiple distributive justice-based fairness metrics in federated learning.
problem Ensuring fairness in federated learning across different client data distributions.
method UDJ-FL framework uses aleatoric uncertainty-based client weighing and fair resource allocation techniques.
result UDJ-FL achieves egalitarian, utilitarian, Rawls' difference principle, and desert-based fairness metrics.
Proposes a Bayesian nonparametric model for monotonic functions.
problem Imposing monotonicity constraints in Bayesian nonparametric models.
method Numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations for nonparametric model of monotonic functions.
result Demonstrates competitive results on benchmark functions and utility in temporal alignment of time-series data.
Paper refines royalty determination using Bayesian methods.
problem Determining a reasonable royalty with risk and uncertainty.
method Bayesian Cost approach to refine Nash Bargaining Solution.
result Nash Bargaining Solution emerges as more reliable.
OOM-RL uses financial market losses to align AI agents in autonomous systems.
problem Constrained alignment of autonomous software agents in live financial markets.
method Deploying agents in live financial markets to enforce strict test-driven workflows.
result Final OOM-RL-aligned system achieved a stable equilibrium with an annualized Sharpe ratio of 2.06.
AI can learn true probabilities if data and assumptions align.
problem Understanding when AI models can accurately represent true objective probabilities.
method Proved conditions under which AI can learn true probabilities.
result Conditions for learning true probabilities are identified.
New robust control method for uncertain systems using bootstrapped noise.
problem Designing controllers robust to model uncertainties in finite data.
method Least-squares model estimator, bootstrap resampling, multiplicative noise LQR.
result Significantly outperforms certainty equivalent controllers in numerical tests.
New algorithm learns uncertainty for edge devices.
problem Uncertainty handling for edge devices in critical applications.
method e-prop 1 algorithm with Broadcast Alignment and local information.
result Algorithm can learn uncertainty locally, improving decision-making.
Paper introduces conformal prediction for reliable uncertainty quantification in landmark localization.
problem Systematic underestimation of total predictive uncertainty in landmark localization.
method Conformal prediction framework for multi-output regression, generating flexible prediction regions.
result Methods outperform existing approaches in validity and efficiency across 2D and 3D datasets.
New approach uses autoregressive models to explore and quantify uncertainty in decision-making.
problem Quantifying and exploring uncertainty in online decision-making.
method Reformulates uncertainty as missing future outcomes, training autoregressive models for next-outcome prediction.
result Establishes a reduction from online learning to offline next-outcome prediction, controlling Bayesian regret by sequence prediction loss.
New algorithm improves inference-time alignment without reward hacking.
problem Improving quality of responses from language models with limited compute.
method Inference-time alignment, focusing on algorithm.
result Optimal performance and scaling-monotonicity of .
BODE enhances deep neural network predictions and uncertainty quantification in safety modeling.
problem Uncertainty in deep neural network predictions for safety-critical applications.
method Bayesian optimization combined with deep ensembles (BODE).
result BODE reduces total uncertainty by over 30% compared to a manually tuned baseline ensemble.
Regularization helps resolve ambiguity in mean-variance models, improving predictive uncertainty quantification.
problem Signal-to-noise ambiguity in overparameterized mean-variance models.
method Statistical field theory framework to explain phase transition.
result Regularization reduces variability and improves predictive uncertainty quantification.
Study shows COVID-19 cases increase stock market volatility in Pakistan.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on stock market volatility in Pakistan.
method Used vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze data from February 25, 2020 to December 7, 2020.
result A shock to total daily coronavirus cases in Pakistan leads to a significant increase in stock market volatility.
Adaptive PI by reweighting nonconformity scores improves model uncertainty reflection.
problem CP methods using a constant correction for all test points ignore individual uncertainties.
method QRF learns distribution of nonconformity scores and assigns weights to samples.
result PI lengths more aligned with model uncertainty and improved adaptiveness.
DINOSAUR improves retrieval by accounting for embedding uncertainty in recommender systems.
problem Retrieval bias towards popular items due to noisy embeddings.
method Samples multiple embeddings per item and queries with sampled embeddings to account for uncertainty.
result Improves coverage of long-tail niche content without sacrificing recall.
This work proposes a way to align statistical modeling with decision making. We provide a method that propagates the uncertainty in predictive modeling to the uncertainty in operational cost, where operational cost is the amount spent by the practitioner in solving the problem. The method allows us to explore the range…
GeoConformal predicts spatial uncertainty without relying on specific models.
problem Measuring uncertainty in spatial predictions to enhance model credibility.
method GeoConformal Prediction integrates geographical weighting into conformal prediction.
result GeoConformal achieves higher coverage rates in uncertainty assessment compared to Bootstrap methods.
Develops a statistical framework to measure uncertainty in model rankings based on human preferences.
problem Uncertainty in model rankings based on human preferences due to mismatch between human and model preferences.
method Statistical framework using pairwise comparisons by humans and models to provide rank-sets for each model.
result Rank-sets constructed using only pairwise comparisons by strong models often do not cover the true ranking of human preferences.
Goal-driven Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design for Robust Decision-Making Under Model Uncertaintycs.LG
GoBOED optimizes experiments for specific decision-making objectives, improving downstream outcomes.
problem Reducing parameter uncertainty does not always improve decision-making in critical settings.
method Combines variational posterior surrogate and differentiable convex decision layer for gradient-based design optimization.
result GoBOED identifies designs that better align with specific decision objectives and reveals wider optimal design windows.
RRPI improves offline RL by optimizing policies against worst-case dynamics.
problem Offline RL's performance degrades under distribution shift and transition uncertainty.
method Formulates offline RL as robust policy optimization, treating transition kernel as decision variable.
result RRPI achieves strong average performance on D4RL benchmarks, outperforming recent baselines.