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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,694 papers · 148 categories

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157314471628 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for uncertain tasks

This paper tackles JSSP with uncertain task durations using DRL.

problem Job Shop Scheduling Problem with uncertain task durations.
method Integrates Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to generate robust schedules.
result Advances DRL applications to JSSPs, enhancing generalization and scalability.

New method optimizes resource allocation for uncertain tasks.

problem Optimal resource allocation for uncertain tasks with limited capacity.
method Formulated as an assignment problem, optimized using learning to rank with net discounted cumulative gain.
result Achieves higher expected profit and precision compared to classification methods.

The paper tackles mean-variance analysis in Bayesian optimization under uncertainty.

problem Optimizing decisions in uncertain environments considering trade-offs between average and variance of risk.
method Developed bounds for mean and variance risk measures in Gaussian Process models and proposed AL algorithms for multi-task, multi-objective, and constrained optimization scenarios.
result Proposed AL algorithms effectively address the mean-variance trade-off in uncertain optimization scenarios.

The paper explores how to handle uncertain evidence in probabilistic models.

problem Handling uncertain evidence in probabilistic models and stochastic simulators.
method The paper considers distributional evidence, Jeffrey's rule, and virtual evidence as methods for interpreting uncertain evidence.
result The paper provides guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and highlights the importance of careful consideration.

In this paper, within the framework of uncertainty theory, the valuation of equity warrants is investigated. Different from the methods of probability theory, the equity warrants pricing problem is solved by using the method of uncertain calculus. Based on the assumption that the firm price follows an uncertain differe…

2017-11-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Quantum methods model uncertain volatility in financial markets.

problem Modeling financial asset prices with uncertain volatility.
method Quantum stochastic calculus with unitary and non-unitary time evolution.
result Different volatility levels encoded in quantum states, leading to varied market price evolutions.

New model predicts dynamic volatility in uncertain financial markets.

problem Predicting dynamic volatility in financial markets with uncertainty.
method Generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN-S) model considering delay and fuzziness.
result Effective prediction of dynamic volatility with improved performance.

A new method for decision-focused learning reduces computational cost.

problem Efficiently solving combinatorial problems with uncertain parameters.
method Reframed as cost-sensitive multi-output regression, with novel loss components.
result Comparable downstream task quality with reduced computational cost.

New algorithm for reinforcement learning in uncertain environments with unknown thresholds.

problem Safety in reinforcement learning in unknown and uncertain environments.
method Growing-Window estimator sampling and Stochastic Pessimistic-Optimistic Thresholding (SPOT) algorithm.
result Achieves sublinear regret and constraint violation of ildeO(T) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}).

Improved drug-protein interaction prediction using FTL method.

problem Predicting drug-protein interactions from noisy data with uncertain labels.
method Filtered Transfer Learning (FTL) method that fine-tunes a deep neural network across multiple tiers of data confidence.
result FTL method outperforms deep neural networks trained on single confidence ranges.

A new method sorts projects using Quicksort and Bradley-Terry model for uncertain long-term benefits.

problem Selecting projects with uncertain long-term benefits.
method Combining Quicksort and Bradley-Terry model for ranking projects based on uncertain long-term benefits.
result Proposed methods outperform existing aggregation methods and can be combined with sampling techniques.

Matching the performance of conditional Generative Adversarial Networks with little supervision is an important task, especially in venturing into new domains. We design a new training algorithm, which is robust to missing or ambiguous labels. The main idea is to intentionally corrupt the labels of generated examples t…

2019-06-09abs ↗pdf ↗

A method for accurate pricing of multidimensional derivatives under uncertain volatility.

problem High-dimensional stochastic control problem in uncertain volatility model.
method Backward actor-critic stochastic policy gradient scheme combining DP, PPO, and neural networks.
result Accurate and efficient pricing of multidimensional derivatives compared to benchmarks.

The paper addresses portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices, finding a logarithmic risk dependence.

problem Portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices.
method Calculates the expected value of CARA utility function over a distribution of covariance matrices, considering uncertainty in future returns and covariances.
result Marginalization introduces a logarithmic dependence on risk, leading to lower allocation levels for higher uncertainties.

The uncertainty measurement of classifiers' predictions is especially important in applications such as medical diagnoses that need to ensure limited human resources can focus on the most uncertain predictions returned by machine learning models. However, few existing uncertainty models attempt to improve overall predi…

2019-07-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian Gaussian process models handle uncertain data locations in PDE approximations.

problem Handling uncertainties in data locations for PDE approximations.
method Bayesian inference of uncertain inputs integrated into Gaussian process predictions.
result Substantial reduction in predictive uncertainties achieved through Bayesian inference.

Framework for games with uncertain parameters, ensuring no player can improve by changing strategy.

problem Non-cooperative games with globally uncertain parameters and no common prior.
method Mixed strategies and subjective priors, Extended Equilibrium defined by fixed-point argument.
result Existence of Extended Equilibrium under certain conditions.

IDT learns human preferences from uncertain decisions, even when humans are suboptimal.

problem Learning human preferences from uncertain and suboptimal decisions.
method Inverse decision theory (IDT) framework, statistical analysis of IDT, characterizing sample complexity.
result Learning preferences is easier when decisions are more uncertain, even if humans are suboptimal.

The Surprise index assesses autonomous systems' competency in uncertain environments.

problem Evaluating competency of autonomous systems in dynamic, uncertain environments.
method Surprise index, a measure that quantifies system performance based on available data.
result The Surprise index can be computed for dynamic systems with Gaussian marginal distributions.

The paper tackles robust control with uncertain dependence using data-driven methods.

problem Nonparametric robust control under dependence uncertainty in multi-period stochastic systems.
method Nonparametric adaptive robust control framework using stochastic gradient descent ascent algorithm.
result The controller benefits from knowing more about the uncertain model.

Paper proposes online optimization for uncertain systems using machine learning and DRO.

problem Optimization of uncertain dynamical systems with distributional uncertainty.
method Combines machine learning with Distributional Robust Optimization (DRO) to handle uncertainty.
result Online solutions with probabilistic regret bounds for uncertain systems.

A new method for estimating uncertainties in neural ODEs without numerical integration.

problem Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainties in neural ODEs.
method Distributional Gradient Matching (DGM) algorithm that jointly trains a smoother and a dynamics model.
result Significantly more accurate predictions compared to traditional methods.

This paper improves learning uncertain Bayesian networks from incomplete data.

problem Learning conditional probabilities in Bayesian networks with limited data.
method Develops methods to estimate and quantify uncertainty in conditional probabilities with incomplete data.
result Improves state-of-the-art approaches for handling uncertain Bayesian networks with incomplete data.

GP-MRO discovers robust mixed strategies for unknown objectives.

problem Optimizing unknown objectives against worst-case uncertain parameters.
method Sequential learning from noisy point evaluations, combining online learning and Gaussian processes.
result GP-MRO finds robust mixed strategies that significantly improve performance over deterministic strategies.

In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead of using two deterministic bounds, the uncertain volatility fluctuates between …

2017-02-16abs ↗pdf ↗

UnKGCP generates prediction intervals for uncertain knowledge graphs with statistical guarantees.

problem Lack of quantified predictive uncertainty in existing UnKGE methods.
method Proposes extsc{UnKGCP} framework using conformal prediction with a novel nonconformity measure.
result Sharp prediction intervals effectively capture predictive uncertainty in diverse UnKGE methods.

Novel pricing method for equity-indexed annuities under uncertain volatility and stochastic interest rate.

problem Pricing equity-indexed annuities with early surrender risk under uncertain market conditions.
method Advanced financial modeling techniques, including uncertain volatility framework and Hull-White model for interest rate dynamics. Numerical algorithm using tree-based framework with local volatility optimization.
result High effectiveness of the proposed numerical algorithm compared to machine learning-based methods.

GPMI method interpolates uncertain atrial conduction velocity on non-Euclidean manifolds.

problem Uncertainty in atrial conduction velocity calculations.
method Gaussian Process Manifold Interpolation (GPMI) on human atrial manifolds.
result GPMI accounts for atrial topology and calculates CV uncertainty.

A machine learning approach to compute Black-Scholes prices with uncertain volatility.

problem Approximating financial markets with continuous-time models like Black-Scholes when data is discrete.
method Generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) method combined with a machine learning technique called Bi-Fidelity.
result Efficient numerical method to quantify uncertainty in derivative pricing.

UA-LQE improves value function learning by selectively erasing uncertain entries in Q-matrix.

problem Improving value function learning in complex reinforcement learning tasks.
method Uncertainty-aware low-rank Q-matrix estimation (UA-LQE) algorithm.
result UA-LQE selectively erases uncertain entries in Q-matrix to improve value function approximation.