A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Learning with label proportions (LLP), which is a learning task that only provides unlabeled data in bags and each bag's label proportion, has widespread successful applications in practice. However, most of the existing LLP methods don't consider the knowledge transfer for uncertain data. This paper presents a transfe…
Incremental learning suffers from two challenging problems; forgetting of old knowledge and intransigence on learning new knowledge. Prediction by the model incrementally learned with a subset of the dataset are thus uncertain and the uncertainty accumulates through the tasks by knowledge transfer. To prevent overfitti…
The paper tackles mean-variance analysis in Bayesian optimization under uncertainty.
problem Optimizing decisions in uncertain environments considering trade-offs between average and variance of risk.
method Developed bounds for mean and variance risk measures in Gaussian Process models and proposed AL algorithms for multi-task, multi-objective, and constrained optimization scenarios.
result Proposed AL algorithms effectively address the mean-variance trade-off in uncertain optimization scenarios.
In this paper, within the framework of uncertainty theory, the valuation of equity warrants is investigated. Different from the methods of probability theory, the equity warrants pricing problem is solved by using the method of uncertain calculus. Based on the assumption that the firm price follows an uncertain differe…
The target of this paper is to consider model the risky asset price on the financial market under the Knightian uncertainty, and pricing the ask and bid prices of the uncertain risk. We use the nonlinear analysis tool, i.e., G-frame work [26], to construct the model of the risky asset price and bid-ask pricing for the …
Matching the performance of conditional Generative Adversarial Networks with little supervision is an important task, especially in venturing into new domains. We design a new training algorithm, which is robust to missing or ambiguous labels. The main idea is to intentionally corrupt the labels of generated examples t…
The paper addresses portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices, finding a logarithmic risk dependence.
problem Portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices.
method Calculates the expected value of CARA utility function over a distribution of covariance matrices, considering uncertainty in future returns and covariances.
result Marginalization introduces a logarithmic dependence on risk, leading to lower allocation levels for higher uncertainties.
The uncertainty measurement of classifiers' predictions is especially important in applications such as medical diagnoses that need to ensure limited human resources can focus on the most uncertain predictions returned by machine learning models. However, few existing uncertainty models attempt to improve overall predi…
In this work clustering schemes for uncertain and structured data are considered relying on the notion of Wasserstein barycenters, accompanied by appropriate clustering indices based on the intrinsic geometry of the Wasserstein space where the clustering task is performed. Such type of clustering approaches are highly …
Deep learning provides a powerful tool for machine perception when the observations resemble the training data. However, real-world robotic systems must react intelligently to their observations even in unexpected circumstances. This requires a system to reason about its own uncertainty given unfamiliar, out-of-distrib…
The accuracy of deep neural networks is significantly affected by how well mini-batches are constructed during the training step. In this paper, we propose a novel adaptive batch selection algorithm called Recency Bias that exploits the uncertain samples predicted inconsistently in recent iterations. The historical lab…
This paper first describes a class of uncertain stochastic control systems with Markovian switching, and derives an Itô-Liu formula for Markov-modulated processes. And we characterize an optimal control law, which satisfies the generalized Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation with Markovian switching. Then, by using …
In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead of using two deterministic bounds, the uncertain volatility fluctuates between …
Novel pricing method for equity-indexed annuities under uncertain volatility and stochastic interest rate.
problem Pricing equity-indexed annuities with early surrender risk under uncertain market conditions.
method Advanced financial modeling techniques, including uncertain volatility framework and Hull-White model for interest rate dynamics. Numerical algorithm using tree-based framework with local volatility optimization.
result High effectiveness of the proposed numerical algorithm compared to machine learning-based methods.
We consider apprenticeship learning, i.e., having an agent learn a task by observing an expert demonstrating the task in a partially observable environment when the model of the environment is uncertain. This setting is useful in applications where the explicit modeling of the environment is difficult, such as a dialog…