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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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18375573 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for uncertain feedback

We use online convex optimization (OCO) for setpoint tracking with uncertain, flexible loads. We consider full feedback from the loads, bandit feedback, and two intermediate types of feedback: partial bandit where a subset of the loads are individually observed and the rest are observed in aggregate, and Bernoulli feed…

2017-09-12abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper tackles combinatorial optimization under uncertainty with limited feedback.

problem Tackling combinatorial optimization problems with uncertain or unknown parameters.
method Review of techniques for combinatorial pure exploration with limited bandit feedback.
result Introduction of methods for combinatorial optimization under uncertainty with limited observation.

Paper studies CLO with partial feedback, improving decision-making in uncertain contexts.

problem Improving decision-making in contexts with uncertain cost coefficients using partial feedback.
method Unified class of offline learning algorithms for CLO with different types of feedback, using IERM framework.
result Fast-rate regret bound for IERM with partial feedback and misspecified model classes.

New method for identifying best designs in vector optimization with uncertain feedback.

problem Optimizing vector-valued outcomes with uncertain preferences.
method Stochastic bandit feedback, polyhedral ordering cone, (ε,δε,δ)-PAC Pareto set identification.
result Sample complexity characterized and matched by the naïve elimination algorithm.

AGFN improves causal discovery by integrating expert feedback and handling latent confounding.

problem Inaccurate causal discovery due to unreliable expert knowledge and latent confounding.
method Ancestral GFlowNet (AGFN) is a reinforcement learning algorithm that iteratively refines a policy based on noisy expert feedback to infer ancestral graphs.
result AGFN converges to the true ancestral graph given accurate expert responses and outperforms baselines in structural Hamming distance and Bayesian Information Criterion.

Optimal investment strategy with expert opinions in uncertain conditions.

problem Optimizing wealth in a model with unobservable drift and costly expert opinions.
method Embedding into a full information problem, using viscosity solutions and stochastic Perron's method.
result Constructing optimal trading and expert opinion strategies under sufficient regularity conditions.

Paper addresses online alignment of large language models under uncertain preference feedback.

problem Online alignment of large language models with misspecified preference feedback.
method Formulates an oracle-robust objective as a worst-case optimization problem for log-linear policies, and develops projected stochastic composite updates.
result Shows that the robust objective admits an exact closed-form decomposition and achieves O~(ε2)\widetilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-2}) oracle complexity.

Improved DPO framework penalizes preference uncertainty to avoid overoptimization.

problem Aligning LLMs to human preferences is challenging due to varied, context-dependent, and ambiguous preferences.
method Developed a pessimistic framework for DPO by introducing preference uncertainty penalization schemes.
result Improved overall performance and better completions on high-uncertainty responses compared to vanilla DPO.

New algorithms control loss and constraints in uncertain, changing environments.

problem Adapting to adversarial constraints in uncertain, changing environments.
method Developed algorithms for constrained MAB problems with optimal rates of regret and positive constraint violation.
result Achieved optimal rates of regret and positive constraint violation under varying degrees of adversariality.

Finding optimal feedback controllers for nonlinear dynamic systems from data is hard. Recently, Bayesian optimization (BO) has been proposed as a powerful framework for direct controller tuning from experimental trials. For selecting the next query point and finding the global optimum, BO relies on a probabilistic desc…

2017-09-20abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper explores how to handle uncertain evidence in probabilistic models.

problem Handling uncertain evidence in probabilistic models and stochastic simulators.
method The paper considers distributional evidence, Jeffrey's rule, and virtual evidence as methods for interpreting uncertain evidence.
result The paper provides guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and highlights the importance of careful consideration.

Uncertainty propagation in nonlinear dynamic systems remains an outstanding problem in scientific computing and control. Numerous approaches have been developed, but are limited in their capability to tackle problems with more than a few uncertain variables or require large amounts of simulation data. In this paper, we…

2019-11-21abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper, within the framework of uncertainty theory, the valuation of equity warrants is investigated. Different from the methods of probability theory, the equity warrants pricing problem is solved by using the method of uncertain calculus. Based on the assumption that the firm price follows an uncertain differe…

2017-11-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Greenhouse environment is the key to influence crops production. However, it is difficult for classical control methods to give precise environment setpoints, such as temperature, humidity, light intensity and carbon dioxide concentration for greenhouse because it is uncertain nonlinear system. Therefore, an intelligen…

2019-12-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Quantum methods model uncertain volatility in financial markets.

problem Modeling financial asset prices with uncertain volatility.
method Quantum stochastic calculus with unitary and non-unitary time evolution.
result Different volatility levels encoded in quantum states, leading to varied market price evolutions.

New model predicts dynamic volatility in uncertain financial markets.

problem Predicting dynamic volatility in financial markets with uncertainty.
method Generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN-S) model considering delay and fuzziness.
result Effective prediction of dynamic volatility with improved performance.

New algorithm for reinforcement learning in uncertain environments with unknown thresholds.

problem Safety in reinforcement learning in unknown and uncertain environments.
method Growing-Window estimator sampling and Stochastic Pessimistic-Optimistic Thresholding (SPOT) algorithm.
result Achieves sublinear regret and constraint violation of ildeO(T) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}).

A method for accurate pricing of multidimensional derivatives under uncertain volatility.

problem High-dimensional stochastic control problem in uncertain volatility model.
method Backward actor-critic stochastic policy gradient scheme combining DP, PPO, and neural networks.
result Accurate and efficient pricing of multidimensional derivatives compared to benchmarks.

The paper addresses portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices, finding a logarithmic risk dependence.

problem Portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices.
method Calculates the expected value of CARA utility function over a distribution of covariance matrices, considering uncertainty in future returns and covariances.
result Marginalization introduces a logarithmic dependence on risk, leading to lower allocation levels for higher uncertainties.

Bayesian Gaussian process models handle uncertain data locations in PDE approximations.

problem Handling uncertainties in data locations for PDE approximations.
method Bayesian inference of uncertain inputs integrated into Gaussian process predictions.
result Substantial reduction in predictive uncertainties achieved through Bayesian inference.

Framework for games with uncertain parameters, ensuring no player can improve by changing strategy.

problem Non-cooperative games with globally uncertain parameters and no common prior.
method Mixed strategies and subjective priors, Extended Equilibrium defined by fixed-point argument.
result Existence of Extended Equilibrium under certain conditions.

IDT learns human preferences from uncertain decisions, even when humans are suboptimal.

problem Learning human preferences from uncertain and suboptimal decisions.
method Inverse decision theory (IDT) framework, statistical analysis of IDT, characterizing sample complexity.
result Learning preferences is easier when decisions are more uncertain, even if humans are suboptimal.

The paper tackles robust control with uncertain dependence using data-driven methods.

problem Nonparametric robust control under dependence uncertainty in multi-period stochastic systems.
method Nonparametric adaptive robust control framework using stochastic gradient descent ascent algorithm.
result The controller benefits from knowing more about the uncertain model.

Unified control theory and machine learning for safety in uncertain systems.

problem Safety guarantees for systems with measurement model uncertainty.
method Measurement-Robust Control Barrier Functions (MR-CBFs) for control synthesis.
result MR-CBFs ensure safety in perception systems with measurement model uncertainty.

Paper proposes online optimization for uncertain systems using machine learning and DRO.

problem Optimization of uncertain dynamical systems with distributional uncertainty.
method Combines machine learning with Distributional Robust Optimization (DRO) to handle uncertainty.
result Online solutions with probabilistic regret bounds for uncertain systems.

This paper tackles JSSP with uncertain task durations using DRL.

problem Job Shop Scheduling Problem with uncertain task durations.
method Integrates Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to generate robust schedules.
result Advances DRL applications to JSSPs, enhancing generalization and scalability.

This paper improves learning uncertain Bayesian networks from incomplete data.

problem Learning conditional probabilities in Bayesian networks with limited data.
method Develops methods to estimate and quantify uncertainty in conditional probabilities with incomplete data.
result Improves state-of-the-art approaches for handling uncertain Bayesian networks with incomplete data.

In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead of using two deterministic bounds, the uncertain volatility fluctuates between …

2017-02-16abs ↗pdf ↗

UnKGCP generates prediction intervals for uncertain knowledge graphs with statistical guarantees.

problem Lack of quantified predictive uncertainty in existing UnKGE methods.
method Proposes extsc{UnKGCP} framework using conformal prediction with a novel nonconformity measure.
result Sharp prediction intervals effectively capture predictive uncertainty in diverse UnKGE methods.

Novel pricing method for equity-indexed annuities under uncertain volatility and stochastic interest rate.

problem Pricing equity-indexed annuities with early surrender risk under uncertain market conditions.
method Advanced financial modeling techniques, including uncertain volatility framework and Hull-White model for interest rate dynamics. Numerical algorithm using tree-based framework with local volatility optimization.
result High effectiveness of the proposed numerical algorithm compared to machine learning-based methods.

GPMI method interpolates uncertain atrial conduction velocity on non-Euclidean manifolds.

problem Uncertainty in atrial conduction velocity calculations.
method Gaussian Process Manifold Interpolation (GPMI) on human atrial manifolds.
result GPMI accounts for atrial topology and calculates CV uncertainty.

A machine learning approach to compute Black-Scholes prices with uncertain volatility.

problem Approximating financial markets with continuous-time models like Black-Scholes when data is discrete.
method Generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) method combined with a machine learning technique called Bi-Fidelity.
result Efficient numerical method to quantify uncertainty in derivative pricing.

Algorithm identifies optimal stable matching in uncertain two-sided markets.

problem Sequential learning in two-sided markets with unknown preferences.
method Pure exploration approach with elimination-based algorithms exploiting partial preference information.
result Identification of pervasive stable matching for optimal stable matching identification.