A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We use online convex optimization (OCO) for setpoint tracking with uncertain, flexible loads. We consider full feedback from the loads, bandit feedback, and two intermediate types of feedback: partial bandit where a subset of the loads are individually observed and the rest are observed in aggregate, and Bernoulli feed…
Optimization is becoming increasingly common in scientific and engineering domains. Oftentimes, these problems involve various levels of stochasticity or uncertainty in generating proposed solutions. Therefore, optimization in these scenarios must consider this stochasticity to properly guide the design of future exper…
This work proposes a new method for simultaneous probabilistic identification and control of an observable, fully-actuated mechanical system. Identification is achieved by conditioning stochastic process priors on observations of configurations and noisy estimates of configuration derivatives. In contrast to previous w…
AGFN improves causal discovery by integrating expert feedback and handling latent confounding.
problem Inaccurate causal discovery due to unreliable expert knowledge and latent confounding.
method Ancestral GFlowNet (AGFN) is a reinforcement learning algorithm that iteratively refines a policy based on noisy expert feedback to infer ancestral graphs.
result AGFN converges to the true ancestral graph given accurate expert responses and outperforms baselines in structural Hamming distance and Bayesian Information Criterion.
Paper addresses online alignment of large language models under uncertain preference feedback.
problem Online alignment of large language models with misspecified preference feedback.
method Formulates an oracle-robust objective as a worst-case optimization problem for log-linear policies, and develops projected stochastic composite updates.
result Shows that the robust objective admits an exact closed-form decomposition and achieves O(ε−2) oracle complexity.
We propose a probabilistic numerical algorithm to solve Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs) with nonnegative jumps, a class of BSDEs introduced in [9] for representing fully nonlinear HJB equations. In particular, this allows us to numerically solve stochastic control problems with controlled volatility,…
Finding optimal feedback controllers for nonlinear dynamic systems from data is hard. Recently, Bayesian optimization (BO) has been proposed as a powerful framework for direct controller tuning from experimental trials. For selecting the next query point and finding the global optimum, BO relies on a probabilistic desc…
Uncertainty propagation in nonlinear dynamic systems remains an outstanding problem in scientific computing and control. Numerous approaches have been developed, but are limited in their capability to tackle problems with more than a few uncertain variables or require large amounts of simulation data. In this paper, we…
In this paper, within the framework of uncertainty theory, the valuation of equity warrants is investigated. Different from the methods of probability theory, the equity warrants pricing problem is solved by using the method of uncertain calculus. Based on the assumption that the firm price follows an uncertain differe…
Greenhouse environment is the key to influence crops production. However, it is difficult for classical control methods to give precise environment setpoints, such as temperature, humidity, light intensity and carbon dioxide concentration for greenhouse because it is uncertain nonlinear system. Therefore, an intelligen…
The target of this paper is to consider model the risky asset price on the financial market under the Knightian uncertainty, and pricing the ask and bid prices of the uncertain risk. We use the nonlinear analysis tool, i.e., G-frame work [26], to construct the model of the risky asset price and bid-ask pricing for the …
The paper addresses portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices, finding a logarithmic risk dependence.
problem Portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices.
method Calculates the expected value of CARA utility function over a distribution of covariance matrices, considering uncertainty in future returns and covariances.
result Marginalization introduces a logarithmic dependence on risk, leading to lower allocation levels for higher uncertainties.
This paper first describes a class of uncertain stochastic control systems with Markovian switching, and derives an Itô-Liu formula for Markov-modulated processes. And we characterize an optimal control law, which satisfies the generalized Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation with Markovian switching. Then, by using …
In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead of using two deterministic bounds, the uncertain volatility fluctuates between …
Novel pricing method for equity-indexed annuities under uncertain volatility and stochastic interest rate.
problem Pricing equity-indexed annuities with early surrender risk under uncertain market conditions.
method Advanced financial modeling techniques, including uncertain volatility framework and Hull-White model for interest rate dynamics. Numerical algorithm using tree-based framework with local volatility optimization.
result High effectiveness of the proposed numerical algorithm compared to machine learning-based methods.