New method for unbiased regression reduces excess risk.
problem Least squares regression with optimal solution and Hessian matrix.
method Averaged stochastic gradient descent with time-average estimator.
result Unbiased estimator with O(1/k) expected excess risk.
Paper develops an unbiased risk estimator for learning with augmented classes.
problem Learning with augmented classes where unseen classes might appear in testing.
method Uses unlabeled training data to approximate potential distribution of augmented classes.
result Establishes an unbiased risk estimator for the testing distribution under mild assumptions.
This paper presents a novel scaling method for unbiased risk estimation.
problem Challenges in risk assessment due to limited data, non-stationarity, and heavy tails.
method Develops a statistical framework for efficient risk scaling, extending beyond the square-root-of-time rule.
result Ensures robust and conservative risk estimation, applicable to small sample settings.
Paper proposes an unbiased risk estimator for PLLAC, handling unseen classes.
problem Handling unseen classes in PLLAC where some classes are not present in the training set.
method Proposes an unbiased risk estimator that estimates the distribution of augmented classes by differentiating known classes from unlabeled data.
result The estimator provides theoretical guarantees and converges to true risk minimizer as data increases.
The estimation of risk measures recently gained a lot of attention, partly because of the backtesting issues of expected shortfall related to elicitability. In this work we shed a new and fundamental light on optimal estimation procedures of risk measures in terms of bias. We show that once the parameters of a model ne…
Deep learning tackles X-ray noise without clean data.
problem Lack of clean X-ray images for deep learning denoising.
method Uses Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) to train a deep neural network.
result SURE-based approach effectively denoises X-ray images.
Develops new methods to estimate treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.
problem Estimating treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.
method Censoring Unbiased Transformations (CUTs) for survival outcomes with and without competing risks.
result Consistent estimates of heterogeneous cumulative incidence effects and total effects using HTE learners.
This work improves texture segmentation by automatically tuning hyperparameters for Total-Variation.
problem The challenge is to automatically select hyperparameters for Total-Variation texture segmentation.
method The approach involves extending Stein's unbiased gradient estimator to handle correlated Gaussian noise, leading to an automatic tuning method.
result The method provides an automatic way to select hyperparameters for Total-Variation texture segmentation.
From only positive (P) and unlabeled (U) data, a binary classifier could be trained with PU learning, in which the state of the art is unbiased PU learning. However, if its model is very flexible, empirical risks on training data will go negative, and we will suffer from serious overfitting. In this paper, we propose a…
Proposes a new framework for learning from labeled and unlabeled data.
problem Learning from unlabeled and multi-label samples with arbitrary loss functions.
method Multi-complementary and unlabeled learning framework.
result Effective estimation of classification risk with optimal convergence rate.
UREs lead to overfitting in complex models, especially in complementary label learning.
problem Overfitting in weakly supervised learning with complementary labels.
method Proposed a surrogate complementary loss (SCL) framework to reduce gradient variance.
result SCL mitigates overfitting and improves URE-based methods.
A method for classification using pairwise similarities and unlabeled data.
problem Handling pairwise similarities and unlabeled data for classification.
method Empirical risk minimization approach to create an unbiased risk estimator.
result Derives an unbiased risk estimator for handling both similarities and unlabeled data.
New method learns from noisy data without knowing noise level.
problem Learning from noisy data without knowing noise level.
method Uses Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate (SURE) without noise level knowledge.
result Outperforms other self-supervised methods on imaging problems.
Paper tackles weakly supervised learning from similarity-confidence data.
problem Learning binary classifier from unlabeled data pairs with confidence of similarity.
method Proposes an unbiased estimator of classification risk from Sconf data and risk correction scheme.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of proposed methods through experiments.
Randomized trials, also known as A/B tests, are used to select between two policies: a control and a treatment. Given a corresponding set of features, we can ideally learn an optimized policy P that maps the A/B test data features to action space and optimizes reward. However, although A/B testing provides an unbiased …
In this analytical study we derive the optimal unbiased value estimator (MVU) and compare its statistical risk to three well known value estimators: Temporal Difference learning (TD), Monte Carlo estimation (MC) and Least-Squares Temporal Difference Learning (LSTD). We demonstrate that LSTD is equivalent to the MVU if …
Using integration by parts on Gaussian space we construct a Stein Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the drift of Gaussian processes using their local and occupation times. By almost-sure minimization of the SURE risk of shrinkage estimators we derive an estimation and de-noising procedure for an input signal perturbed…
This paper analyzes the generalization risk of unrolled neural networks using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator.
problem Analyzing the generalization risk of unrolled neural networks and its relationship to network design and train sample size.
method Using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE), the paper analyzes the generalization risk with bias and variance components for recurrent unrolled networks, focusing on the degrees-of-freedom (DOF) component and the trace of the end-to-end network Jacobian.
result DOF is well-approximated by the weighted path sparsity of the network under incoherence conditions on the trained weights, and DOF increases with train sample size and converges to the generalization risk for both recurrent and non-recurrent schemes.
Paper proposes unbiased learning for recommendation causal effects.
problem Estimating the causal effect of recommendation when the ground truth is unobservable.
method Inverse propensity scoring technique to construct unbiased estimators, followed by empirical risk minimization with propensity capping.
result The proposed method outperforms other biased learning methods in various settings.
This paper introduces a new learning method for classification without true labels.
problem Learning with only complementary labels, not true class labels.
method Derives a novel framework for arbitrary losses and models, using unbiased risk estimation.
result Demonstrates improved risk estimator through non-negative correction and gradient ascent.
Estimates conversion probabilities from click sequences with privacy constraints.
problem Training models in advertising with limited direct click-conversion links.
method Formalizes learning from attribution sets, constructs unbiased estimator, applies Empirical Risk Minimization.
result Empirical Risk Minimization achieves generalization guarantees and robustness against prior errors.
Develops new instance-optimality concepts in differential privacy.
problem Improving privacy guarantees in statistical estimation.
method Introduces local minimax risk and unbiased mechanisms, and develops inverse sensitivity mechanisms.
result Inverse sensitivity mechanisms are nearly instance optimal for a wide range of functions.
Paper proposes an unbiased classifier from triplet comparison data.
problem Learning a classifier from triplet comparison data.
method Empirical risk minimization framework with an unbiased estimator.
result The proposed method achieves better performance than baseline methods.
In this paper we address the problem of pool based active learning, and provide an algorithm, called UPAL, that works by minimizing the unbiased estimator of the risk of a hypothesis in a given hypothesis space. For the space of linear classifiers and the squared loss we show that UPAL is equivalent to an exponentially…
Investment strategy without fixed horizon in ambiguous market conditions.
problem Dynamic portfolio choice in an ambiguous market.
method Formulated as a robust forward performance process reflecting dynamic investor preference.
result Market risk premium and utility risk premium determine trading direction and worst-case scenarios.
A new framework for bilevel optimization tackles stochastic and global variance reduction.
problem Bilevel optimization challenges in large-scale empirical risk minimization.
method Introducing a novel framework where inner and main variables evolve simultaneously, leading to unbiased estimates and global variance reduction algorithms.
result SABA algorithm achieves $O( rac{1}{T})$ convergence rate and linear convergence under Polyak-Lojasciewicz assumption.
In this paper, we obtain a property of the expectation of the inverse of compound Wishart matrices which results from their orthogonal invariance. Using this property as well as results from random matrix theory (RMT), we derive the asymptotic effect of the noise induced by estimating the covariance matrix on computing…
Bayesian method improves extreme quantile estimation with zero coverage error.
problem Estimating extreme quantiles with zero coverage error in small samples.
method Bayesian quantile estimation using Jeffreys prior.
result Bayesian method results in zero coverage error, unlike maximum likelihood.
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD), which dates back to the 1950s, is one of the most popular and effective approaches for performing stochastic optimization. Research on SGD resurged recently in machine learning for optimizing convex loss functions and training nonconvex deep neural networks. The theory assumes that on…
The paper analyzes the risk of CV-tuned regularized estimators and connects it to SURE.
problem Understanding the risk of CV-tuned regularized estimators.
method Derives asymptotic risk function of CV-tuned estimators and connects it to SURE.
result The risk function provides a more detailed picture of predictive performance than uniform bounds.
A framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in reinforcement learning.
problem Estimating risk and uncertainty in deep reinforcement learning.
method Proposed a framework for disentangling and estimating epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties on learned Q-values, derived unbiased estimators, and introduced an uncertainty-aware DQN algorithm.
result The uncertainty-aware DQN algorithm exhibits safe learning behavior and outperforms other DQN variants on the MinAtar testbed.
New algorithm for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with natural policy gradients.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with downside risk constraints.
method Introduce a new Bellman equation to estimate the lower partial moment of returns, use natural policy gradients, and extend Reward Constrained Policy Optimization.
result Sample-efficient estimation of partial moments and effective risk-sensitive control.
New method finds unbiased subnetworks in biased models for better OOD performance.
problem How to improve out-of-distribution generalization in deep models.
method Functional modular probing method and Modular Risk Minimization.
result Even in biased models, there are unbiased subnetworks that can achieve better OOD performance.
Active learning improves RS-IRL by querying expert demonstrations to uncover risk boundaries.
problem Efficient learning from expert demonstrations in risk-sensitive IRL.
method Probabilistic disturbance sampling scheme for active learning.
result Our approach accelerates RS-IRL convergence with lower variance and unbiased results.
SVR analyzed within RQ framework for risk management.
problem Risk management in stochastic optimization.
method Risk Quadrangle (RQ) theory applied to SVR.
result SVR formulations as minimization of Vapnik error and CVaR norm.
The paper explores effective data selection methods for weakly supervised learning.
problem Efficiently selecting a subset of unlabeled data for weakly supervised learning.
method Using a surrogate model to predict labels and selecting a subset of samples for training.
result Data selection can significantly improve model performance over training on the full dataset.
Empirical risk minimization is the main tool for prediction problems, but its extension to relational data remains unsolved. We solve this problem using recent ideas from graph sampling theory to (i) define an empirical risk for relational data and (ii) obtain stochastic gradients for this empirical risk that are autom…
ENSURE framework trains deep image recon algorithms without clean data.
problem Lack of clean, fully sampled ground-truth data for deep learning image reconstruction.
method Introduces ENSURE framework, a generalization of SURE and GSURE to random sampling patterns.
result ENSURE loss function is an unbiased estimate for true mean-square error.
Synthetic construction of 3D complex bases.
problem Creating a complete set of unbiased bases in 3D complex space.
method Synthetic construction using complex projective trigonometry.
result Synthetic construction of mutually unbiased bases in C^3.
GARCH-UGH improves VaR estimation for financial risk management.
problem Dynamic estimation of extreme VaR in financial time series.
method AR-GARCH filtering followed by a bias-reduced extreme value estimator.
result GARCH-UGH estimates are more accurate than conventional methods.
Unbiased wealth exchanges always lead to inequality.
problem Understanding wealth distribution in unbiased binary exchange systems.
method Analytical demonstration of unbiased binary exchanges leading to perfect inequality.
result Any system driven by unbiased binary exchanges will reach perfect inequality and zero mobility.
New method uses SURE to denoise signals, outperforming NPMLE.
problem Learning to optimally denoise signals corrupted by Gaussian noise.
method Hyvärinen's score matching (SM) is shown equivalent to SURE minimization.
result SURE achieves nearly parametric rates of convergence in empirical Bayes settings.
The dependency structure of credit risk parameters is a key driver for capital consumption and receives regulatory and scientific attention. The impact of parameter imperfections on the quality of expected loss (EL) in the sense of a fair, unbiased estimate of risk expenses however is barely covered. So far there are n…
New unbiased methods for generating stochastic bridges with given extrema.
problem Generating unbiased stochastic bridges with a specified extremum.
method Comparison and generalization of two algorithms for Brownian bridges to other diffusions, and application to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and unconstrained processes.
result Generalization of unbiased generation methods to other diffusions and application to various processes.
MUSE provides unbiased stopping estimates for optimal problems.
problem Estimating the utility of optimal stopping problems.
method Backward recursive construction of the Multilevel Unbiased Stopping Estimator (MUSE).
result MUSE achieves ε-accuracy with O(1/ε^2) computational cost.
PPAT uses predictions to improve risk estimation in active testing.
problem Exploiting informative predictions from black-box models for efficient risk estimation.
method Combines LURE estimator with prediction-powered control variate.
result PPAT outperforms existing methods in risk estimation and uncertainty quantification.
Generalized R2R handles non-Gaussian noise for deep network training.
problem Training deep networks from noisy data alone.
method Extending R2R to handle various noise distributions.
result GR2R loss is an unbiased estimator of supervised loss.
The paper shows how to audit fairness in decisions with hidden risk factors.
problem Estimating fairness in decisions influenced by hidden, unobservable risk factors.
method Derives unbiased estimates of risk using historical data and audits existing decision-making systems.
result One can compute meaningful bounds on treatment rates for high-risk individuals, even with hidden confounders.