Proposes a two-stage method for testing variable interactions with FDR control.
problem Testing pairwise interactions in high-dimensional data with dependence.
method Two-stage testing procedure with FDR control using Cramér type moderate deviation technique.
result The proposed method controls FDR and has comparable or improved statistical power.
Fast nonparametric conditional independence testing via two-stage regression
problem Fast nonparametric conditional independence testing
method BLITZ (Broad-to-Local Independence Testing via residualiZation)
result Better null calibration than fast kernel, random-feature, and regression-based competitors
Power supply from renewable resources is on a global rise where it is forecasted that renewable generation will surpass other types of generation in a foreseeable future. Increased generation from renewable resources, mainly solar and wind, exposes the power grid to more vulnerabilities, conceivably due to their variab…
We consider a multi-objective risk-averse two-stage stochastic programming problem with a multivariate convex risk measure. We suggest a convex vector optimization formulation with set-valued constraints and propose an extended version of Benson's algorithm to solve this problem. Using Lagrangian duality, we develop sc…
Paper tackles moment estimation under covariate shift with a two-stage algorithm.
problem Estimating moments under covariate shift when source and target distributions differ.
method Proposes a two-stage algorithm: first, an optimal estimator for the source distribution; second, likelihood ratio reweighting for calibration.
result Achieves minimax optimal bound for moment estimation.
Two-stage risk control for ranked retrieval systems.
problem Assessing prediction uncertainty and risk control in sequential machine learning systems.
method Developed two-stage risk control methods based on LTT and CRC frameworks, leveraging sequential nature of retrieval and ranking phases.
result The proposed methods provide theoretical guarantees and reduce computational burden compared to prior work.
New model explains volatility after extreme stock market events.
problem Understanding volatility dynamics after extreme stock market events.
method Proposed a new dynamical model using high frequency minute data.
result Volatility after extreme events follows a stretched exponential decay initially and a power law decay later.
Proposes a two-stage method for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using gradient boosting trees.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in randomized clinical trials with high-dimensional predictive markers.
method Two-stage statistical learning procedure using gradient boosting trees (XGBoost) to estimate main effects and HTE.
result Improves efficiency in estimating heterogeneous treatment effects through nonparametric function estimation.
Joint training improves model accuracy by selectively using privileged information.
problem Two-stage training can lead to model failure with noisy privileged information.
method Joint training of two models to use privileged information selectively.
result Joint training outperforms two-stage baselines on synthetic and real-world tasks.
With the increasing complexity of modern power systems, conventional dynamic load modeling with ZIP and induction motors (ZIP + IM) is no longer adequate to address the current load characteristic transitions. In recent years, the WECC composite load model (WECC CLM) has shown to effectively capture the dynamic load re…
The paper develops an asymptotic theory of self-supervised pre-training.
problem Sharpness of current rates in self-supervised pre-training and their accuracy.
method Two-stage M-estimation and tools from Riemannian geometry.
result Characterization of the limiting distribution of the downstream test risk.
Proposes a two-stage sector rotation method using machine learning and deep learning.
problem Identifying sectors with high investment attractiveness based on market conditions.
method Two-stage methodology: 1) Predict ETF prices using market indicators and feature selection, 2) Rank sectors based on predicted returns and select top sectors.
result The proposed methodology outperforms equally weighted portfolios and Echo State Networks show outstanding performance.
FMCIT accelerates CI tests for causal discovery, maintaining power and efficiency.
problem High computational complexity in CI tests limits practical applicability of causal discovery methods.
method Flow Matching-based Conditional Independence Test (FMCIT) that leverages flow matching for fast CI tests.
result FMCIT effectively controls type-I error and maintains high testing power under the alternative hypothesis.
Improved forecasting of investment dynamics across heterogeneous panels using a two-stage model.
problem Forecasting investment dynamics in heterogeneous panels with varying dynamics.
method Two-stage architecture: global pooled AR(1) for shared persistence, local models for residual dynamics.
result Significant improvement in out-of-sample R2 from 0.630 to 0.677, with a gain of 0.047. This paper presents the asymptotic behavior of a linear instrumental variables (IV) estimator that uses a ridge regression penalty. The regularization tuning parameter is selected empirically by splitting the observed data into training and test samples. Conditional on the tuning parameter, the training sample creates …
The paper analyzes how generated data improves adversarial training in high-dimensional regression.
problem Improving adversarial training in high-dimensional regression.
method Theoretical analysis of a two-stage training approach with generated data and pseudo-labels.
result Two-stage adversarial training achieves better performance than ridgeless training in high-dimensional linear regression.
New adaptive test for NPIV models controls size and has superior power.
problem Testing inequality and equality restrictions in nonparametric IV models.
method Adaptive hypothesis test based on modified leave-one-out sample quadratic distance.
result Adaptive test attains the adaptive minimax rate of testing in L2. We present generalization bounds for the TS-MKL framework for two stage multiple kernel learning. We also present bounds for sparse kernel learning formulations within the TS-MKL framework.
SARD improves adversarial robustness in two-stage L2D systems.
problem Adversarial attacks can manipulate query allocation in two-stage L2D systems.
method Introduces SARD, a convex learning algorithm with provable guarantees.
result SARD significantly improves robustness under adversarial attacks while maintaining strong clean performance.
Two-stage recommender systems show better performance when components interact rather than operate independently.
problem Two-stage recommender systems are often treated as sums of their parts, ignoring interactions between components.
method Used synthetic and real-world data to demonstrate interactions between ranker and nominators. Derived a generalization lower bound and proposed a Mixture-of-Experts approach to learn optimal item pools.
result Independent nominator training can lead to performance on par with random recommendations, highlighting the importance of interactions.
SGD improves DR by solving two-stage sampling problems.
problem Improving the learning properties of SGD for distribution regression.
method Applying SGD to two-stage sampling problems in distribution regression.
result Theoretical guarantees for SGD's performance in DR, with optimal bounds.
A new framework integrates classification and regression tasks in multi-task learning.
problem Jointly solving classification and regression tasks in multi-task scenarios.
method Two-Stage Learning-to-Defer (L2D) framework with a unified deferral mechanism.
result Unified deferral mechanism ensures convergence to the Bayes-optimal rejector.
Generates music with coherent rhythm, chords, and melody using LSTM models.
problem Lack of direction and coherence in generated music by neural networks.
method Two-stage LSTM model: first generates harmonic and rhythmic templates, then melodies conditioned on these.
result Subjective test shows improved musical coherence and coherence compared to baselines.
CASP selects reliable policies for two-stage recommender systems by considering both value and support.
problem The selection of a generator in two-stage recommender systems affects both the policy value and the data support used to estimate it.
method CASP combines doubly robust value estimation with a support-burden penalty.
result CASP selects lower-burden policies when estimated value and support credibility are in tension.
New framework minimizes interference and selection bias in network A/B testing.
problem Interference and selection bias in network A/B testing.
method Proposes a principled framework that jointly minimizes interference and selection bias using edge spillover probability and cluster matching.
result Significantly lower error in causal effect estimation compared to existing solutions.
Improved learning theory for kernel distribution regression with two-stage sampling.
problem Distribution regression problem and two-stage sampling setting.
method Kernel methods, near-unbiased condition, new error bounds, convergence rates.
result Strictly improved convergence rates for three important classes of kernels.
To integrate strategic, tactical and operational decisions, the two-stage optimization has been widely used to guide dynamic decision making. In this paper, we study the two-stage stochastic programming for complex systems with unknown response estimated by simulation. We introduce the global-local metamodel assisted t…
Adaptive SAA solves large-scale stochastic linear programs efficiently.
problem Solving large-scale two-stage stochastic linear programs.
method Iterative algorithm with adaptive sample size and warm starts.
result The algorithm converges to the true solution set with a probabilistic guarantee.
Bayesian optimization tackles non-convex, two-stage stochastic problems efficiently.
problem Solving non-convex, two-stage stochastic optimization problems with expensive, black-box evaluations.
method Knowledge-gradient-based acquisition function for joint optimization of first- and second-stage variables.
result Comparable and superior empirical results compared to alternatives.
Proposes FARM model combining latent factor and sparse regression.
problem Testing adequacy of latent factor and sparse regression models.
method Factor Augmented sparse linear Regression Model (FARM) with FabTest and ANOVA type tests.
result Model robustness and effectiveness validated through experiments.
This paper explores the following question: what kind of statistical guarantees can be given when doing variable selection in high-dimensional models? In particular, we look at the error rates and power of some multi-stage regression methods. In the first stage we fit a set of candidate models. In the second stage we s…
Two-stage recommender systems struggle with exploration, leading to linear regret.
problem Linear regret in two-stage recommender systems due to exploration issues.
method Proposed a method to synchronize exploration strategies between the ranker and nominators using LinUCB.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm experimentally.
Two-stage mechanism designs reduce regret in recommender systems with stochastic covariates.
problem Designing effective recommender systems with user covariates sampled online.
method Two-stage algorithm integrating incentivized exploration with offline learning methods.
result Achieves sublinear regret while maintaining incentive compatibility.
Two-stage model improves credit scoring predictions.
problem Distribution shift in finance datasets.
method Two-stage model with out-of-distribution detection and domain knowledge.
result Highly reliable predictions for most datasets.
D2KLab's approach predicts tweet engagement using two stages.
problem Predicting user engagement with tweets.
method Two-stage approach: feature learning and ensemble XGBoost.
result Ranked 22 in the 2020 RecSys Challenge leaderboard.
A new conformal prediction framework for two-stage models identifies stage-wise uncertainty.
problem Limited coverage guarantees and lack of modular structure understanding in existing conformal prediction methods.
method Decomposes prediction residuals into stage-specific components, calibrates parameters using FWER control, and adapts to non-stationary settings.
result Improves coverage and identifies stage-wise error contributions compared to standard conformal methods.
Proposes ML methods for robust price-sensitivity estimation in dynamic pricing.
problem Estimating price elasticities robustly in the presence of feature-dependent sensitivity.
method Poisson semi-parametric model with two-stage estimation: first-stage ML for observed purchases, second-stage Bayesian GLM for price-sensitivity.
result Reduces estimation error in price-sensitivity parameters from 25% to 4%.
New algorithm protects privacy in IVaR regression while maintaining accuracy.
problem Privacy leakage in classical IVaR methods.
method Noisy two-stage gradient descent with differential privacy guarantees.
result Achieves statistical efficiency and privacy in IVaR regression.
The paper provides a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of the Two-Stage approach for parameter estimation.
problem Theoretical justification for the Two-Stage approach in situations where likelihood is difficult to evaluate.
method Statistical decision-theoretical derivation leading to Bayesian and Minimax estimators.
result The Two-Stage approach is justified theoretically and applied to independent and identically distributed samples.
Besides accuracy, the model size of convolutional neural networks (CNN) models is another important factor considering limited hardware resources in practical applications. For example, employing deep neural networks on mobile systems requires the design of accurate yet fast CNN for low latency in classification and ob…
Two-stage architecture helps learners collaborate on data with privacy and transmission constraints.
problem Collaboration between learners with distinct datasets and privacy/transmission constraints.
method Privacy-aware hypothesis testing screening and synergistic iterative model training.
result Achieves oracle performance with limited transmissions of summary statistics.
Sparse representation based classification (SRC) methods have achieved remarkable results. SRC, however, still suffer from requiring enough training samples, insufficient use of test samples and instability of representation. In this paper, a stable inverse projection representation based classification (IPRC) is prese…
Differentially private method for estimating individualized treatment rules.
problem Estimating individualized treatment rules while preserving privacy.
method Differentially private two-stage empirical risk minimization (DP-2ERM).
result Improved privacy-utility trade-off demonstrated through simulations and applications.
TSCI estimates treatment effects using machine learning and data-adaptive methods for invalid instruments.
problem Estimating treatment effects with invalid instruments.
method Two-stage algorithm: first stage uses machine learning for nonlinearities, second stage selects and projects out instrument violations.
result Effective treatment effect estimation even with invalid instruments.
STOOD-X detects out-of-distribution samples without distributional assumptions and provides explainable visualizations.
problem Challenges in OOD detection, including restrictive assumptions, scalability issues, and lack of interpretability.
method Two-stage methodology combining statistical nonparametric test and explainability enhancements.
result Achieves competitive performance in high-dimensional and complex settings, with explainability framework enabling human oversight.
Develops a two-stage approach for robust tensor completion of visual data.
problem Estimating missing values in high-order data with outliers.
method Coarse-to-fine framework and M-estimator-based robust tensor ring recovery.
result Superior performance compared to state-of-the-art robust algorithms.
We present in this paper a model for forecasting short-term power loads based on deep residual networks. The proposed model is able to integrate domain knowledge and researchers' understanding of the task by virtue of different neural network building blocks. Specifically, a modified deep residual network is formulated…
A TTA framework improves forecasting accuracy in non-stationary time series.
problem Improving forecasting accuracy in non-stationary time series.
method Normalization-based test-time adaptation for causal timeseries forecasting and direction classification.
result Normalization-based TTA improves forecasting error in synthetic gradual drift and can even hurt in aggressive norm-only adaptation in financial markets.