A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper develops a two-population model to assess longevity basis risk.
In clinical and neuroscientific studies, systematic differences between two populations of brain networks are investigated in order to characterize mental diseases or processes. Those networks are usually represented as graphs built from neuroimaging data and studied by means of graph analysis methods. The typical mach…
We introduce a system of kinetic equations describing an exchange market consisting of two populations of agents (dealers and speculators) expressing the same preferences for two goods, but applying different strategies in their exchanges. We describe the trading of the goods by means of some fundamental rules in price…
New decompositions misattribute differences between populations, even when outcomes are identical.
Study controlled contagion with state-dependent killing, proving a comparison principle.
We study the top- ranking problem where the goal is to recover the set of top- ranked items out of a large collection of items based on partially revealed preferences. We consider an adversarial crowdsourced setting where there are two population sets, and pairwise comparison samples drawn from one of the populat…
Study on testing two populations with confounders.
We present a new approach for mitigating unfairness in learned classifiers. In particular, we focus on binary classification tasks over individuals from two populations, where, as our criterion for fairness, we wish to achieve similar false positive rates in both populations, and similar false negative rates in both po…
In this work, we consider hypothesis testing and anomaly detection on datasets where each observation is a weighted network. Examples of such data include brain connectivity networks from fMRI flow data, or word co-occurrence counts for populations of individuals. Current approaches to hypothesis testing for weighted n…
After birth, extremely preterm infants often require specialized respiratory management in the form of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Protracted IMV is associated with detrimental outcomes and morbidities. Premature extubation, on the other hand, would necessitate reintubation which is risky, technically challe…
We address the problem of correcting group discriminations within a score function, while minimizing the individual error. Each group is described by a probability density function on the set of profiles. We first solve the problem analytically in the case of two populations, with a uniform bonus-malus on the zones whe…
Develops an equilibrium model for securities pricing in a mixed cooperative and non-cooperative market.
Meta learning of optimal classifier error rates allows an experimenter to empirically estimate the intrinsic ability of any estimator to discriminate between two populations, circumventing the difficult problem of estimating the optimal Bayes classifier. To this end we propose a weighted nearest neighbor (WNN) graph es…
DRF improves confidence and uncertainty assessment for multivariate conditional distributions.
Study measures inequality in social-economic systems using Fokker-Planck equations and Lotka-Volterra dynamics.
Functional connections in the brain are frequently represented by weighted networks, with nodes representing locations in the brain, and edges representing the strength of connectivity between these locations. One challenge in analyzing such data is that inference at the individual edge level is not particularly biolog…
Paper proposes robust method to detect risk heterogeneity across ethnic groups.
The paper proposes a method to improve forecast combination accuracy using portfolio theory.
The th-nearest neighbor rule is arguably the simplest and most intuitively appealing nonparametric classification procedure. However, application of this method is inhibited by lack of knowledge about its properties, in particular, about the manner in which it is influenced by the value of ; and by the absence of…
Shape-constrained symbolic regression improves model extrapolation with prior knowledge.
Generalizing empirical findings to new environments, settings, or populations is essential in most scientific explorations. This article treats a particular problem of generalizability, called "transportability", defined as a license to transfer information learned in experimental studies to a different population, on …
We propose Turing Learning, a novel system identification method for inferring the behavior of natural or artificial systems. Turing Learning simultaneously optimizes two populations of computer programs, one representing models of the behavior of the system under investigation, and the other representing classifiers. …
Functional brain networks are well described and estimated from data with Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs), e.g. using sparse inverse covariance estimators. Comparing functional connectivity of subjects in two populations calls for comparing these estimated GGMs. Our goal is to identify differences in GGMs known to hav…
Given a mixture between two populations of coins, "positive" coins that each have -- unknown and potentially different -- bias and "negative" coins with bias , we consider the task of estimating the fraction of positive coins to within additive error . We achieve an upper a…
We present a simple agent-based model to study the development of a bubble and the consequential crash and investigate how their proximate triggering factor might relate to their fundamental mechanism, and vice versa. Our agents invest according to their opinion on future price movements, which is based on three source…
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful interpolation technique due to its flexibility in capturing non-linearity. In this paper, we provide a general framework for understanding the frequentist coverage of point-wise and simultaneous Bayesian credible sets in GP regression. As an intermediate result, we develop…
Debate over the existence of branches in the stellar activity-rotation diagrams continues. Application of modern time series analysis tools to study the mean cycle periods in chromospheric activity index is lacking. We develop such models, based on Gaussian processes, for one-dimensional time series and apply it to the…
The study of networks leads to a wide range of high dimensional inference problems. In many practical applications, one needs to draw inference from one or few large sparse networks. The present paper studies hypothesis testing of graphs in this high-dimensional regime, where the goal is to test between two populations…
New bounds show empirical EOT adapts to simpler measure.
Comparing two probability measures supported on heterogeneous spaces is an increasingly important problem in machine learning. Such problems arise when comparing for instance two populations of biological cells, each described with its own set of features, or when looking at families of word embeddings trained across d…
Many in-hospital mortality risk prediction scores dichotomize predictive variables to simplify the score calculation. However, hard thresholding in these additive stepwise scores of the form "add x points if variable v is above/below threshold t" may lead to critical failures. In this paper, we seek to develop risk pre…
SM-netFusion estimates brain network atlas by considering multiple topological measures.
The paper improves clustering algorithms for noisy data samples.
The paper introduces BCART models for aggregate claim amount, improving frequency-severity and joint modeling.
The paper uses model-based trees to create interpretable surrogate models for complex machine learning models.
Gauge Flow Models use a learnable Gauge Field in Generative Flow Models.
The study examines how model predictions hold up under model extensions.
Revises Bayesian model averaging for foundation models.
Paper introduces symmetric divergence link models for probability distributions.
New method to handle credit portfolio model uncertainties.
The paper tests stock return models and uses LSTM to predict stock returns.
Researchers review challenges in interpreting additive models, especially neural additive models.
Novel hybrid modeling combines ML and physics for real-time diagnosis.
CRS model improves ranking data modeling with theoretical guarantees.
Sigma models linked to Gross-Neveu models via quiver varieties.
Interpretable machine learning has become a strong competitor for traditional black-box models. However, the possible loss of the predictive performance for gaining interpretability is often inevitable, putting practitioners in a dilemma of choosing between high accuracy (black-box models) and interpretability (interpr…
Simple models are preferred over complex models, but over-simplistic models could lead to erroneous interpretations. The classical approach is to start with a simple model, whose shortcomings are assessed in residual-based model diagnostics. Eventually, one increases the complexity of this initial overly simple model a…
Matryoshka hides secret models in a carrier model, achieving high capacity and robustness.