This paper investigates how the order of token generation affects language model quality.
problem The influence of token generation order on model quality in autoregressive language models.
method A novel two-pass language model that produces partially-filled sentence templates and then fills in missing tokens. Various strategies for structuring these two passes are compared.
result The most effective strategy generates function words in the first pass followed by content words in the second.
Develops a method to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia.
problem Predicting stock returns with time-varying risk premia while maintaining no-arbitrage restrictions.
method Penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings, incorporating penalization in the first pass and grouping in the second pass.
result The proposed method reduces prediction errors compared to other approaches.
MSD removes dequantization bottleneck in LLM inference by approximating high-precision activations.
problem Dequantization bottleneck in LLM inference on modern AI accelerators.
method MSD decomposes high-precision activations into multiple low-precision components for direct multiplication with quantized weights.
result MSD avoids INT8-to-BF16 weight conversion, reducing dequantization cycles and HBM traffic.
In this paper we present a new algorithm for computing a low rank approximation of the product ATB by taking only a single pass of the two matrices A and B. The straightforward way to do this is to (a) first sketch A and B individually, and then (b) find the top components using PCA on the sketch. Our algori…
New algorithms for fair data summarization in massive data models.
problem Fair k-center problem in massive data. method Streaming and distributed algorithms with provable guarantees.
result First distributed algorithm with constant approximation ratio.
Bayesian approach improves neural network recurrence.
problem Improving neural network recurrence mechanisms.
method Introducing Bayesian recurrence relations and gates.
result Bayesian approach can perform as well as or better than conventional recurrent networks.
Full-batch GD outperforms one-pass SGD in learning a single-index model with quadratic activation.
problem Learning a single-index model with quadratic activation using gradient descent.
method Full-batch gradient descent compared to one-pass stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on a correlation loss.
result Full-batch GD requires only n≃d samples for strong recovery, while one-pass SGD requires n≳dlogd samples. Polestar optimizes public transportation routes for efficiency and user satisfaction.
problem Difficulty in finding optimal public transportation routes due to complex networks and dynamic situations.
method Developed a Public Transportation Graph (PTG) and a route search algorithm with station binding and ranking modules.
result Demonstrated superior efficiency and user satisfaction compared to existing systems.
New MCMC algorithm reduces subset selection passes to 2 for optimal k-dimensional subspace approximation.
problem Subset selection for k-dimensional subspace approximation with ε-approximation. method MCMC sampling algorithm reducing passes to 2 for p=2 case, poly(k/ε) size subset. result Subset selection of nearly optimal size in 2 passes, (1+ε) approximation. Classifies load forecasting studies by forecasting problem.
problem Selecting appropriate load forecasting techniques and methodologies.
method Classification based on two forecasting problem parameters.
result Synthetic view of relevant forecasting techniques and methodologies.
Study develops time-continuous models and probabilistic descriptions for agent-based economic market models.
problem Formulating and describing agent-based economic market models in a time-continuous and probabilistic manner.
method Derived time-continuous formulations, discussed impact of time-scaling, proved stability, presented probabilistic descriptions using kinetic theory.
result Time-continuous formulations and probabilistic descriptions for agent-based economic market models.
Hybrid model combines interpretable and black-box models for better transparency and performance.
problem Balancing interpretability and predictive performance in machine learning models.
method Proposes a Hybrid Predictive Model (HPM) integrating an interpretable model with a black-box model, using principled objective functions and customized training algorithms.
result Hybrid models achieve an efficient trade-off between transparency and predictive performance.
Boosts generative models by combining multiple meta-models.
problem Challenges in creating a single generative model that accurately represents complex data.
method Cascades multiple meta-models (like RBM and VAE) to create a stronger generative model.
result Derives a decomposable variational lower bound for training and evaluating the boosted model.
The paper introduces BCART models for aggregate claim amount, improving frequency-severity and joint modeling.
problem Modeling aggregate claim amount with frequency-severity and joint dependencies.
method Developed three types of BCART models: frequency-severity, sequential, and joint models. Used various distributions for claim severity data.
result Weibull distribution outperforms gamma and lognormal for right-skewed, heavy-tailed claim severity data.
The paper uses model-based trees to create interpretable surrogate models for complex machine learning models.
problem Interpreting complex machine learning models.
method Using model-based trees to partition feature space and create interpretable models.
result Model-based trees generate optimal surrogate models that balance interpretability and performance.
Gauge Flow Models use a learnable Gauge Field in Generative Flow Models.
problem Improving generative model performance.
method Integrates a learnable Gauge Field into Flow ODEs.
result Gauge Flow Models outperform traditional Flow Models in Flow Matching experiments.
The study examines how model predictions hold up under model extensions.
problem Model predictions may not be robust under model extensions, limiting their applicability.
method The study uses causal ordering to assess robustness of qualitative model predictions and characterizes model extensions that preserve predictions.
result Conditions and techniques are provided to assess robustness of model predictions under model extensions.
MALC combines interpretable linear models with black-box models for better predictions and transparency.
problem Combining interpretability with black-box models for better predictions.
method Formulates MALC as a convex optimization problem and uses accelerated proximal gradient method for training.
result MALC provides an efficient frontier balancing prediction accuracy and transparency.
Revises Bayesian model averaging for foundation models.
problem Ensemble pre-trained and lightly-finetuned foundation models for improved classification performance.
method Introduces trainable linear classifiers and computationally cheaper model averaging scheme (OMA).
result Ensembled models can better predict on various datasets.
Paper introduces symmetric divergence link models for probability distributions.
problem Symmetric divergence measures for probability distributions.
method Two general classes of link models: one for survival functions and another for cumulative probability distribution functions.
result Advantages of symmetric divergence measures over asymmetric measures for model averaging and feature assessment.
New method to handle credit portfolio model uncertainties.
problem Model risk in credit portfolio models.
method Demonstrates comprehensive yet easy-to-implement approach to uncertainty in model parameters.
result Comprehensive method to deal with model uncertainties.
The paper tests stock return models and uses LSTM to predict stock returns.
problem Validating stock return models and predicting stock returns.
method Used Fama-French three-factor, four-factor, and five-factor models; also used LSTM model.
result Fama-French five-factor model shows better validity for stock returns.
Researchers review challenges in interpreting additive models, especially neural additive models.
problem Challenges in interpreting additive models, particularly neural additive models.
method Review of generalized additive models and discussion of nonidentifiability.
result Challenges in claiming interpretability or suitability for safety-critical applications of additive models.
Proposes a decision-theoretic approach for enhancing model interpretability in Bayesian frameworks.
problem Challenges the traditional approach of restricting model structure for interpretability in Bayesian frameworks.
method Introduces an interpretability utility function and a two-step method involving a reference model and a proxy model.
result Demonstrates that the proposed method generates more accurate models with the same level of interpretability.
Novel hybrid modeling combines ML and physics for real-time diagnosis.
problem Real-time diagnosis of complex systems.
method Combines machine learning and physics-based models to create reduced-order models.
result Generated models are two orders of magnitude simpler, improving efficiency.
CRS model improves ranking data modeling with theoretical guarantees.
problem Lack of rich, multimodal models for ranking data.
method Contextual Repeated Selection (CRS) model for multimodal ranking data.
result CRS model significantly outperforms existing methods in various ranking contexts.
Sigma models linked to Gross-Neveu models via quiver varieties.
problem Understanding the relationship between sigma models and Gross-Neveu models.
method Exploring the mathematical correspondence between sigma models and Gross-Neveu models, including their geometric and trigonometric/elliptic deformations.
result Sigma models are mathematically equivalent to Gross-Neveu models under certain conditions.
Simple models are preferred over complex models, but over-simplistic models could lead to erroneous interpretations. The classical approach is to start with a simple model, whose shortcomings are assessed in residual-based model diagnostics. Eventually, one increases the complexity of this initial overly simple model a…
Matryoshka hides secret models in a carrier model, achieving high capacity and robustness.
problem Stealing functionality of private ML data by hiding models in a carrier model.
method Parameter sharing approach exploiting the learning capacity of the carrier model.
result Hides a 26x larger secret model or 8 secret models in the carrier model.
Eigen-stratified models reduce model size and improve performance.
problem Large model size in Laplacian-regularized stratified models.
method Formulate eigen-stratified models with linear combinations of bottom eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian.
result Significant reduction in model size with eigen-stratified models.
Semi-parametric models improve robot dynamics modeling accuracy.
problem Improving inverse dynamics model accuracy in robotics.
method Comparison of semi-parametric Gaussian process regression and a novel model-based neural network.
result Semi-parametric Gaussian process regression yields the most accurate models.
A novel kernel approach for model selection in simulator-based models.
problem Model selection for simulator-based statistical models with limited prior knowledge.
method Iteratively updates model weights and parameters using Bayes' rule and kernel recursive ABC algorithm.
result Demonstrates effectiveness on dynamical systems in ecology and epidemiology.
This work develops scalable model selection methods with fast update and selection.
problem Efficient model selection for large pools of candidate models.
method Isolated model embedding, which supports asymptotically fast update and selection.
result Standardized Embedder achieves competitive model selection performances.
Seq2Seq models speed up epidemic model predictions.
problem Complex epidemic models are computationally expensive.
method Used deep seq2seq models as surrogates for complex models.
result Surrogates predict scenarios up to several thousand times faster.
Paper proposes BMPO to optimize policies using bidirectional models.
problem Model-based reinforcement learning's reliance on forward model accuracy.
method Develops BMPO using both forward and backward models for policy optimization.
result BMPO outperforms state-of-the-art methods in sample efficiency and asymptotic performance.
Copulas outperform marginal models in multivariate risk forecasting, reducing model risk by narrowing down the set of models.
problem Model risk in multivariate risk forecasting, especially during crises.
method Comprehensive empirical study comparing Copula-GARCH models with fixed marginals, copulas, or neither.
result Model risk is almost entirely due to copula choice, not marginal models.
This paper distills a complex travel mode choice model into simpler, interpretable models.
problem Lack of interpretability in complex machine learning models for travel behavior.
method Model distillation combined with market segmentation.
result Generated interpretable models that closely match the predictions of the original complex model.
BayesBlend blends multiple models' predictions for better insurance loss predictions.
problem Improving insurance loss predictions by combining multiple models.
method Pseudo-Bayesian model averaging, stacking, and hierarchical stacking.
result BayesBlend provides a user-friendly way to blend model predictions and estimate weights.
The paper identifies when larger models improve predictions and proposes a switcher model.
problem Understanding when larger models benefit from added complexity.
method Numerical studies on T5 architecture to analyze predictive uncertainty and model performance.
result Large models improve on examples where small models are uncertain, but not on certain examples.
Aggregates models from different datasets using shared latent structures.
problem Aggregating models from heterogeneous datasets with shared latent structures.
method Bayesian nonparametrics for identifying correspondences among local model parameterizations.
result Framework successfully aggregates various model types across different applications.
Improved diffusion model generation speed with speculative sampling.
problem Generating samples from computationally expensive diffusion models.
method Extending speculative sampling to diffusion models, using fast draft models for candidate token generation.
result Significant speedup in generation, halving the number of function evaluations.
DBNs improve accuracy of biological ODE models with missing data.
problem Uncertainty in biological ODE models with missing data.
method Converted ODE models to DBNs and used Particle Filtering for parameter estimation.
result DBNs can accurately infer model variables with missing data.
PMM uses Bayesian inference to generate data from noisy approximations.
problem Creating flexible generative models for various data types.
method Bayesian inference and conjugate pairs of distributions.
result PMM achieves performance competitive with existing generative models.
The study quantifies model risk in option pricing models, finding recalibration does not reduce risk.
problem Model risk in calibration and recalibration of option pricing models.
method Use relative entropy to quantify model risk, comparing Black-Scholes and Heston models.
result Recalibrating models more frequently shifts risk, not reducing it; more complex models are counterproductive for robustness.
A new method for selecting model order in statistical shape models.
problem Choosing the right model order in PDMs for optimal performance.
method Information-theoretic criteria for selecting model order.
result The new method provides a better trade-off between overfitting and underfitting.
The paper extends statistical inference methods for black-box generative models.
problem Understanding and validating black-box generative models without access to their internal data.
method Develops model-level statistical inference tasks using generative model representations.
result Model-level representations are effective for multiple inference tasks.
We propose a generalization of neural network sequence models. Instead of predicting one symbol at a time, our multi-scale model makes predictions over multiple, potentially overlapping multi-symbol tokens. A variation of the byte-pair encoding (BPE) compression algorithm is used to learn the dictionary of tokens that …
Unified model improves sampling speed and quality.
problem Difficult to balance sampling speed and quality.
method Multistep Consistency Models combining consistency and diffusion models.
result Improved sampling quality with reduced steps.