A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study analyzes correlation structure in two-factor Hull-White model for XVA calculations.
The study examines how global economic policy uncertainty affects crude oil futures volatility.
We study historical calibration of one- and two-factor models that are known to describe relatively well the dynamics of energy underlyings such as spot and index natural gas or oil prices at different physical locations or regional power prices. We take into account uneven frequency of data due to weekends, holidays, …
For an affine two factor model, we study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood and least squares estimators of some appearing parameters in the so-called subcritical (ergodic) case based on continuous time observations. We prove strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators in question.
We provide a full classification of all attainable term structure shapes in the two-factor Vasicek model of interest rates. In particular, we show that the shapes normal, inverse, humped, dipped and hump-dip are always attainable. In certain parameter regimes up to four additional shapes can be produced. Our results ap…
Divides state space into regions with identical term structure shapes.
A simplified model for fixed income portfolio optimisation.
Investment decision triggered by a convex curve in a two-factor uncertainty model.
In this paper we introduce an additive two-factor model for electricity futures prices based on Normal Inverse Gaussian Lévy processes, that fulfills a no-overlapping-arbitrage (NOA) condition. We compute European option prices by Fourier transform methods, introduce a specific calibration procedure that takes into acc…
Paper presents a fast algorithm for pricing Bermudan swaptions under the two-factor Hull-White model.
In this paper we are interested in term structure models for pricing zero coupon bonds under rapidly oscillating stochastic volatility. We analyze solutions to the generalized Cox-Ingersoll-Ross two factors model describing clustering of interest rate volatilities. The main goal is to derive an asymptotic expansion of …
Empirical evidence suggests that fixed income markets exhibit unspanned stochastic volatility (USV), that is, that one cannot fully hedge volatility risk solely using a portfolio of bonds. While [1] showed that no two-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model can exhibit USV, it has been unknown to date whether CIR models …
The paper solves complex swing option pricing equations with numerical methods.
We propose a novel and generic calibration technique for four-factor foreign-exchange hybrid local-stochastic volatility models with stochastic short rates. We build upon the particle method introduced by Guyon and Labordère [Nonlinear Option Pricing, Chapter 11, Chapman and Hall, 2013] and combine it with new variance…
Energy companies need efficient procedures to perform market calibration of stochastic models for commodities. If the Black framework is chosen for option pricing, the bottleneck of the market calibration is the computation of the variance of the asset. Energy commodities are commonly represented by multi-factor linear…
Recursive Marginal Quantization (RMQ) allows fast approximation of solutions to stochastic differential equations in one-dimension. When applied to two factor models, RMQ is inefficient due to the fact that the optimization problem is usually performed using stochastic methods, e.g., Lloyd's algorithm or Competitive Le…
A similarity structure on a connected manifold M is a Riemannian metric on its universal cover such that the fundamental group of M acts by similarities. If the manifold M is compact, we show that the universal cover admits a de Rham decomposition with at most two factors, one of which is Euclidean. Very recently, afte…
Novel method for estimating currency option parameters with improved accuracy.
Pricing formulae for defaultable corporate bonds with discrete coupons under consideration of the government taxes in the united model of structural and reduced form models are provided. The aim of this paper is to generalize the comprehensive structural model for defaultable fixed income bonds (considered in [1]) into…
Investigates portfolio selection with transaction costs and stochastic volatility, using deep learning for computation.
The Schatten quasi-norm can be used to bridge the gap between the nuclear norm and rank function, and is the tighter approximation to matrix rank. However, most existing Schatten quasi-norm minimization (SQNM) algorithms, as well as for nuclear norm minimization, are too slow or even impractical for large-scale problem…
C. Gordon conjectured that a connected sum of two Heegaard splittings is stabilized if and only if one of the two factors is stabilized (Problem 3.91 in Kirby's problem list). In this paper, we shall prove this conjecture.
We study the existence of a unique stationary distribution and ergodicity for a 2-dimensional affine process. The first coordinate is supposed to be a so-called alpha-root process with α\in(1,2]. The existence of a unique stationary distribution for the affine process is proved in case of α\in(1,2]; further, in case of…
The problem of portfolio allocation in the context of stocks evolving in random environments, that is with volatility and returns depending on random factors, has attracted a lot of attention. The problem of maximizing a power utility at a terminal time with only one random factor can be linearized thanks to a classica…
A new method solves complex financial equations efficiently.
The paper proposes a framework for information-theoretic predictive uncertainty measures.
We extend the now classic structural credit modeling approach of Black and Cox to a class of "two-factor" models that unify equity securities such as options written on the stock price, and credit products like bonds and credit default swaps. In our approach, the two sides of the stylized balance sheet of a firm, namel…
New measure quantifies contrastive self-supervised learning's generalization ability.
Personal income distributions in Japan are analyzed empirically and a simple stochastic model of the income process is proposed. Based on empirical facts, we propose a minimal two-factor model. Our model of personal income consists of an asset accumulation process and a wage process. We show that these simple processes…
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are notoriously difficult to train and the reasons underlying their (non-)convergence behaviors are still not completely understood. By first considering a simple yet representative GAN example, we mathematically analyze its local convergence behavior in a non-asymptotic way. Furt…
In the standard equilibrium and/or arbitrage pricing framework, the value of any asset is uniquely specified from the belief that only the systematic risks need to be remunerated by the market. Here, we show that, even for arbitrary large economies when the distribution of the capitalization of firms is sufficiently he…
Study leading-order asymptotics for VIX option prices in Bergomi models.
To investigate the universal structure of interactions in financial dynamics, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of price returns of the Chinese stock market, in comparison with those of the American and Indian stock markets. As an important emerging market, the Chinese market exhibits much stronger correlations…
Deep weight factorization improves neural network training through smooth optimization of sparse penalties.
Polynomial processes have the property that expectations of polynomial functions (of degree , say) of the future state of the process conditional on the current state are given by polynomials (of degree ) of the current state. Here we explore the application of polynomial processes in the context of structur…
New insights into how large learning rates affect transformer training dynamics.
We show that essential punctured spheres in the complement of links with distance three bridge spheres have bounded complexity. We define the operation of tangle product, a generalization of both connected sum and Conway product. Finally, we use the bounded complexity of essential punctured spheres to show that the bri…
Model captures SPX and VIX volatility surfaces and skew-stickiness ratio.
This paper models default data to capture dynamic dependence across sectors.
We investigate a multi-factor extension of the asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) model that underlies the capital charges of the "Basel II Accord". In this extended model, it is still possible to derive closed-form solutions for the risk contributions to Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. As an application of the…
We consider the discretized version of a (continuous-time) two-factor model introduced by Benth and coauthors for the electricity markets. For this model, the underlying is the exponent of a sum of independent random variables. We provide and test an algorithm, which is based on the celebrated Foellmer-Schweizer decomp…
The paper provides formulas for volatility in various models, including rough volatility.
Temporal coarse-graining of multi-sector default count data generates effective correlation matrices and rank copulas.
Efficiently calibrates Bergomi models to VIX derivatives using vector quantization.
The scaling properties of the time series of asset prices and trading volumes of stock markets are analysed. It is shown that similarly to the asset prices, the trading volume data obey multi-scaling length-distribution of low-variability periods. In the case of asset prices, such scaling behaviour can be used for risk…
Existence proved for Ricci curvature on sphere product.
We compute the transition probability between two learning tasks, and show that it decomposes into two factors. The first depends on the geometry of the loss landscape of a model trained on each task, independent of any particular model used. This is related to an information theoretic distance function, but is insuffi…
We develop a multi-curve term structure setup in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to LIBOR swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor lognormal multi-curve model is sufficient to match market data with accuracy. We elucidate the relationship…