Approach selects variables and time intervals for comparing high-dimensional time-series data.
problem Comparing high-dimensional time-series data for significant differences.
method Data is split into subintervals, and two-sample tests are performed on each to identify distinguishing variables.
result The approach effectively identifies variables and time intervals where data significantly differs.
Formula connects knot complements' invariants.
problem Understanding invariants of knot complements.
method Proposed a connect sum formula for two-variable series invariants.
result Numerical evidence supports the formula for various torus knots.
Innovative series invariant for knot complements, linking to existing invariants.
problem Developing a new series invariant for knot complements.
method Introducing a three-variable series F K ( y , z , q ) F_K(y,z,q) F K ( y , z , q ) for plumbed knot complements. result Deriving a surgery formula relating F K ( y , z , q ) F_K(y,z,q) F K ( y , z , q ) to Z ^ ( q ) \hat{Z}(q) Z ^ ( q ) invariant. New method identifies causes in time series with latent variables.
problem Identifying direct and indirect causes in time series data with hidden variables.
method Proves necessary and sufficient conditions for causal feature selection using graph constraints and conditional independence tests.
result Method outperforms Granger causality in identifying causes with low false positives and false negatives.
Researchers calculate ( t , q ) (t,q) ( t , q ) -series invariants for Seifert manifolds.
problem Calculating ( t , q ) (t,q) ( t , q ) -series invariants for Seifert manifolds. method Generalization of earlier work on plumbed 3 3 3 -manifolds to Seifert manifolds with b 1 = 0 b_{1}=0 b 1 = 0 . result Calculation of ( t , q ) (t,q) ( t , q ) -series invariants for Seifert manifolds with b 1 = 0 b_{1}=0 b 1 = 0 . The prevalence of wearable sensors (e.g., smart wristband) is creating unprecedented opportunities to not only inform health and wellness states of individuals, but also assess and infer personal attributes, including demographic and personality attributes. However, the data captured from wearables, such as heart rate …
New model preserves symmetry in multivariate time series, improving performance.
problem Implicit ordering in MTS models violates inherent exchangeability.
method Permutation-equivariant 2D state space model with canonical architecture.
result Eliminates sequential dependency chains and simplifies stability analysis.
We consider the Granger causal structure learning problem from time series data. Granger causal algorithms predict a 'Granger causal effect' between two variables by testing if prediction error of one decreases significantly in the absence of the other variable among the predictor covariates. Almost all existing Grange…
Method identifies causal interactions between time series using extreme eigenvalue variability.
problem Detecting causal interactions between time series.
method Largest eigenvalue of lagged correlation matrices, measuring causal interactions through variability.
result The method outperforms traditional Granger causality tests in detecting structural changes.
Improved DSSMs for easier interpretable latent variables.
problem Complex and hard-to-interpret latent variables in DSSMs.
method Simplified predictive decoder and shrinkage priors.
result Interpretable latent variables improve forecasting performance.
Paper proposes methods to discover causal models with unobserved variables.
problem Discovering causal relationships in data with unobserved variables.
method Two methods leveraging prior knowledge for causal discovery in CAM-UV models.
result Accuracy of causal discovery improves with more prior knowledge.
Paper connects knot invariants and Morse flow loops.
problem Connecting quantum group invariants and Morse flow loops for knot study.
method Defining a two-variable series invariant by counting Morse flow loops in knot complements and proving it agrees with quantum group BPS series.
result Correspondence proven for all braid-homogeneous knots.
New framework improves multivariate time series forecasting by minimizing redundant information.
problem Improving multivariate time series forecasting with deep learning techniques.
method Cross-variable Decorrelation Aware feature Modeling (CDAM) and Temporal correlation Aware Modeling (TAM) to refine Channel-mixing and exploit temporal correlations.
result Significantly surpasses existing models in comprehensive tests.
MTHetGNN models complex relations in multivariate time series forecasting.
problem Complex relations among variables in multivariate time series forecasting.
method Designs a relation embedding module and a temporal embedding module, using graph neural networks and CNNs.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results in multivariate time series forecasting.
The scaling properties of the time series of asset prices and trading volumes of stock markets are analysed. It is shown that similarly to the asset prices, the trading volume data obey multi-scaling length-distribution of low-variability periods. In the case of asset prices, such scaling behaviour can be used for risk…
Bayesian framework selects features and lags for time series forecasting.
problem Variable selection and lagged error term identification in time series models.
method Hierarchical Bayesian models with spike-and-slab priors, two-stage MCMC algorithm.
result Posterior selection consistency under mild conditions, improved predictive performance.
It becomes increasingly popular to perform mediation analysis for complex data from sophisticated experimental studies. In this paper, we present Granger Mediation Analysis (GMA), a new framework for causal mediation analysis of multiple time series. This framework is motivated by a functional magnetic resonance imagin…
In this paper, we propose a variable selection method for general nonparametric kernel-based estimation. The proposed method consists of two-stage estimation: (1) construct a consistent estimator of the target function, (2) approximate the estimator using a few variables by l1-type penalized estimation. We see that the…
Proposes a GNN framework for multivariate time series forecasting.
problem Lack of exploiting latent spatial dependencies in multivariate time series forecasting.
method Automatically extracts graph structures from multivariate time series data, integrates external knowledge, and uses mix-hop and dilated inception layers for capturing dependencies.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods on 3 out of 4 benchmark datasets.
STAM learns important time steps and variables for multivariate time series prediction.
problem Accurate interpretation of multivariate time series predictions.
method Spatiotemporal attention mechanism (STAM) for multivariate time series modeling.
result STAM maintains state-of-the-art prediction accuracy with improved interpretability.
LAVARNET predicts multivariate time series by estimating causal variable relationships.
problem Forecasting multivariate time series requires understanding causal interrelationships among variables.
method LAVARNET is a neural network architecture that estimates causal effects and predicts future values.
result LAVARNET outperforms other models on various real-world data sets.
Studying the impact of climate change on precipitation is constrained by finding a way to evaluate the evolution of precipitation variability over time. Classical approaches (feature-based) have shown their limitations for this issue due to the intermittent and irregular nature of precipitation. In this study, we prese…
Proposes a new model for non-linear regression of multivariate time series data.
problem Regression models for non-scalar variables, especially time series, have limitations.
method Develops a non-linear function-on-function model using neural networks.
result Demonstrates effectiveness through real-world applications.
This research improves LSTM for monthly electricity demand forecasting using pattern-based methods.
problem Forecasting mid-term monthly electricity demand with high accuracy.
method Developed a hybrid LSTM model using x-patterns and exponential smoothing.
result The hybrid model outperformed standard LSTM and classical models.
TimeCNN improves forecasting by refining cross-variable interactions over time.
problem Multivariate time series forecasting struggles with dynamic and multifaceted cross-variable correlations.
method TimeCNN uses timepoint-independent convolution kernels to capture evolving relationships among variables.
result TimeCNN outperforms state-of-the-art models in real-world datasets with significant computational and speed advantages.
Properties of low-variability periods in the time series are analysed. The theoretical approach is used to show the relationship between the multi-scaling of low-variability periods and multi-affinity of the time series. It is shown that this technically simple method is capable of reveling more details about time-seri…
The physical 3d N = 2 \mathcal{N}=2 N = 2 theory T[Y] was previously used to predict the existence of some 3-manifold invariants Z ^ a ( q ) \hat{Z}_{a}(q) Z ^ a ( q ) that take the form of power series with integer coefficients, converging in the unit disk. Their radial limits at the roots of unity should recover the Witten-Reshetikhin-Turaev invari…
ReGENN improves time series forecasting by considering inter and intra-temporal relationships.
problem Achieving reliable predictions in real-world time series applications.
method ReGENN combines graph evolution with deep recurrent learning to model dynamic dependencies among multiple variables.
result Sound improvement of up to 64.87% over competing algorithms in time-series forecasting.
A novel non-supervised method detects anomalies in multivariate time series.
problem Detecting anomalies in multivariate time series data.
method Partitioning based on clustering of correlation coefficients.
result Significant improvement in anomaly detection performance.
We model non-stationary volume-price distributions with a log-normal distribution and collect the time series of its two parameters. The time series of the two parameters are shown to be stationary and Markov-like and consequently can be modelled with Langevin equations, which are derived directly from their series of …
Study on NNs for forecasting time series with novel control variable combinations.
problem Forecast future time series with novel combinations of control variables.
method Modular NN architecture with inductive bias for independence of control variables.
result Modular NN architecture improves forecasting of dependent variables up to large horizons.
New method uses path signatures for causal discovery in time series data.
problem Challenges in understanding causal structure from observational time series data.
method Path signatures and signed areas for model-free causal discovery.
result Confidence sequence regions help identify lag/lead causal relationships.
Proposes a method to improve financial time series forecasting using compact representations and contrastive loss.
problem Financial time series forecasting with small datasets and overfitting issues.
method Class-conditioned latent variable model, mutual information maximization, contrastive loss, deep autoregressive models.
result Empirical experiments show improved performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
New method reconstructs missing variables in time series using autoencoders and automatic differentiation.
problem Reconstruct missing variables in time series with flexible input and output combinations.
method Train an autoencoder with all features, optimize missing variables as inputs, and use automatic differentiation.
result Flexible input and output combinations can be achieved without retraining the autoencoder.
We infer both microscopic and macroscopic behaviors of a three-dimensional chaotic fluid flow using reservoir computing. In our procedure of the inference, we assume no prior knowledge of a physical process of a fluid flow except that its behavior is complex but deterministic. We present two ways of inference of the co…
Researchers confirm a relation between knot invariants and provide formulas for torus knots.
problem Confirming a relation between knot invariants and providing formulas.
method Explicit formulas and algorithms for certain ADO-invariants of torus knots obtained from the series invariant of knot complements.
result Explicit formulas and algorithms for certain ADO-invariants of torus knots.
Paper shows how SFA fits into FBM framework for time series separation.
problem Identifying time series decomposition in flow-based models.
method Combining SFA and FBM to make time series decomposition identifiable.
result Time series decomposition becomes identifiable using SFA and FBM.
New method models complex dynamics using a base variable.
problem Modeling complex high-frequency dynamics from time series.
method Constructing a joint model with a base variable and a target variable.
result Successfully models chaotic behavior and reconstructs statistical properties.
Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.
problem No formal framework for probabilistic reconciliation of count time series.
method Generalizes Bayes' rule for reconciling real-valued and count variables.
result Improves forecast accuracy for count variables compared to Gaussian reconciliation.
Generative model captures repetitive industrial processes with varying durations and dynamics.
problem Capturing repetitive industrial processes with varying durations and dynamics using Gaussian Processes.
method Posterior-weighted Gaussian Process with a novel kernel to decouple intra-repetition and inter-repetition variability.
result Generative model produces realistic synthetic trajectories from toy datasets.
New method interprets multivariate time series for better results.
problem Difficulty in applying traditional methods to multivariate time series.
method Alternative representation of multivariate time series through features.
result Competitive and interpretable results achieved.
AR model forecasts partially observed dynamical time series by estimating evolution function and imputing missing variables.
problem Forecasting dynamical time series with missing variables.
method Autoregressive with slack time series (ARS) model.
result ARS model forecasts future time series with time-invariant and linear assumptions.
Detects change points in time series focusing on specific components.
problem Identifying moments when specific components of multivariate time series change distributions.
method Two-stage non-parametric algorithm: causal structure learning followed by change point detection.
result Validated the approach on synthetic and real-world datasets.
New model for time series classification from single example.
problem Classifying time series patterns from limited data.
method Developed a Hidden semi-Markov Model with variable state duration.
result Different representations of state duration have distinct strengths and weaknesses.
A new model captures variability in time series data.
problem Capturing high variability in time series data.
method Temporal latent variables and dynamic weight modifications.
result Demonstrated efficacy on various sequential data.
Fermat-Torricelli points help assess investment risks by smoothing series data.
problem Analyzing investment risks in series with large variance, nonlinear trends, or non-normal distributions.
method Construct Fermat-Torricelli points to reduce random component influence.
result Smoothing series by Fermat-Torricelli points reduces risk assessment errors.
New invariant unifies two theories of 3-manifolds, recovering quantum invariants.
problem Quantum invariants of 3-manifolds at roots of unity.
method Introduces a unified invariant for negative definite plumbed 3-manifolds.
result 2-variable refinement of the Z ^ \widehat Z Z -invariant. SummerTime summarizes variable-length time series for machine learning applications.
problem Classical machine learning methods struggle with variable-length time series data.
method Summarizes time series into a fixed-length feature vector using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM).
result Improves classification and regression performance in physical activity analysis.