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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for truncated statistics

Efficiently estimate Boolean product distribution parameters from truncated samples.

problem Estimating parameters of Boolean product distributions from truncated samples.
method Introducing fatness of truncation set, using membership queries, and adapting Stochastic Gradient Descent.
result Efficiently learn Boolean product distributions from truncated samples with small sample complexity.

Study identifies and analyzes three types of errors in learning Fourier operators.

problem Statistical, discretization, and truncation errors in learning Fourier operators.
method Analysis of a Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) based least squares estimator.
result Established upper and lower bounds on statistical, discretization, and truncation errors.

Paper proposes robust estimators for heavy-tailed data with infinite variance.

problem Developing robust estimators for heavy-tailed data with infinite variance.
method Proposes two robust estimators: ridge log-truncated M-estimator and elastic net log-truncated M-estimator.
result Demonstrates robustness of log-truncated estimations over standard estimations through simulations and real data analysis.

We introduce the truncated Gaussian graphical model (TGGM) as a novel framework for designing statistical models for nonlinear learning. A TGGM is a Gaussian graphical model (GGM) with a subset of variables truncated to be nonnegative. The truncated variables are assumed latent and integrated out to induce a marginal m…

2016-06-02abs ↗pdf ↗

As in standard linear regression, in truncated linear regression, we are given access to observations (Ai,yi)i(A_i, y_i)_i whose dependent variable equals yi=AiTx+ηiy_i= A_i^{\rm T} \cdot x^* + η_i, where xx^* is some fixed unknown vector of interest and ηiη_i is independent noise; except we are only given an observation if its dep…

2020-07-29abs ↗pdf ↗

We study the problem of estimating the parameters of a Gaussian distribution when samples are only shown if they fall in some (unknown) subset SRdS \subseteq \R^d. This core problem in truncated statistics has long history going back to Galton, Lee, Pearson and Fisher. Recent work by Daskalakis et al. (FOCS'18), provide…

2019-08-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Learning with a {\it convex loss} function has been a dominating paradigm for many years. It remains an interesting question how non-convex loss functions help improve the generalization of learning with broad applicability. In this paper, we study a family of objective functions formed by truncating traditional loss f…

2018-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a new trading strategy for statistical arbitrage with path-dependent signals.

problem Optimal execution in statistical arbitrage strategies with dynamic predictive signals.
method Signature-based framework modeling alpha and trading speed as linear functionals of truncated signature of market path.
result Fitted policy achieves higher return on turnover compared to a z-score benchmark.

Optimized Franz-Parisi criterion matches SQ lower bounds for various statistical models.

problem Understanding computational hardness in statistical inference.
method Proposed and refined Franz-Parisi criterion, established equivalence with SQ lower bounds.
result Optimized Franz-Parisi criterion is equivalent to Statistical Query (SQ) lower bounds.

Decoding strategies often exclude human-like tokens, creating a detectable gap in generated text.

problem Decoding strategies exclude contextually appropriate but statistically rare tokens, creating a detectable gap in generated text.
method Analysis of 1.8 million texts across 8 language models, 5 decoding strategies, and 53 hyperparameter configurations.
result 8-18% of human-selected tokens fall outside typical truncation boundaries, indicating a detectable gap.

Proposes a method to handle sparse multiway count data with false zeros using zero-truncated Poisson regression.

problem Handling sparse multiway count data corrupted by false zeros.
method Zero-truncated Poisson regression with tensor completion.
result Accurate estimation of multiway count data from approximately IR2log22(I)IR^2\log_2^2(I) non-zero counts.

Estimates inverse temperature of Ising models with a single sample.

problem Estimating inverse temperature in truncated Ising models with hard constraints.
method Maximizing pseudolikelihood to estimate the inverse temperature.
result An estimator that is nearly O(n)O(n) time and O(Δ3/n)O(Δ^3/\sqrt{n})-consistent.

We propose a novel sparse tensor decomposition method, namely Tensor Truncated Power (TTP) method, that incorporates variable selection into the estimation of decomposition components. The sparsity is achieved via an efficient truncation step embedded in the tensor power iteration. Our method applies to a broad family …

2015-02-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian method estimates LTLL distribution parameters for time-to-event data.

problem Parameter estimation for time-to-event data with left truncation.
method Bayesian inference using Metropolis-Hastings algorithm.
result Bayesian estimation provides more stable and reliable parameter estimates.

The paper investigates the convergence of Vendi scores under finite samples and introduces a truncated version for better performance.

problem The Vendi score's convergence is hindered by computational limitations when using large sample sizes.
method The authors introduce the t-truncated Vendi score to address this issue by truncating the eigenspectrum of the kernel matrix.
result The t-truncated Vendi score converges to its asymptotic limit with a smaller number of samples, improving upon the standard Vendi score.

We provide an efficient algorithm for the classical problem, going back to Galton, Pearson, and Fisher, of estimating, with arbitrary accuracy the parameters of a multivariate normal distribution from truncated samples. Truncated samples from a dd-variate normal N(μ,Σ){\cal N}(\mathbfμ,\mathbfΣ) means a samples is only re…

2018-09-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper develops IFTRR to solve sparse generalized eigenvalue problems efficiently.

problem Finding the leading eigenvector with at most k nonzero entries in sparse generalized eigenvalue problems.
method Inverse-free truncated Rayleigh-Ritz method (IFTRR) with a new truncation strategy.
result IFTRR efficiently finds the support set of the leading eigenvector for large scale problems.

Paper develops approximation and statistical theory for signature-based path regression.

problem Understanding how fast signatures approximate continuous path functionals.
method Develops \(L^2\) approximation rate for smooth functionals of Itô diffusions and establishes consistency of statistical learning procedures.
result Signature-based methods improve prediction over handcrafted features in various real-data applications.

The problem of an arbitrary truncated Levy flight description using the method of cumulant approach has been solved. The set of cumulants of the truncated Levy distribution given the assumption of arbitrary truncation has been found. The influence of truncation shape on the truncated Levy flight properties in the Gauss…

2010-06-12abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm for truncated linear regression without knowing the survival set.

problem Estimating the unknown regressor in truncated linear regression with an unknown survival set.
method Sub-Gaussian feature vectors and novel subroutine for learning unions of intervals.
result First algorithm with poly(d/ε) runtime for truncated linear regression with unknown survival set.

We describe financial systems as condensates, similar to Bose-Einstein condensates, and calculate statistical distributions following from the model. The calculated distributions of investments into speculated financial assets are found equivalent to a Pareto distribution, and the calculated distributions of the price …

2003-03-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are widely used for statistical modeling, because of ease of inference and the ubiquitous use of the normal distribution in practical approximations. However, they are also known for their limited modeling abilities, due to the Gaussian assumption. In this paper, we introduce a novel va…

2016-11-15abs ↗pdf ↗

In the paper "On Truncated Variation of Brownian Motion with Drift" (Bull. Pol. Acad. Sci. Math. 56 (2008), no.4, 267 - 281) we defined truncated variation of Brownian motion with drift, Wt=Bt+μt,t0,W_t = B_t + μt, t\geq 0, where (Bt)(B_t) is a standard Brownian motion. Truncated variation differs from regular variation by neglect…

2009-12-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimal algorithm learns Gaussian under halfspace truncation with minimal samples.

problem Learning a Gaussian distribution truncated to an unknown halfspace.
method Efficient algorithm using n=ildeO(d2/ε2)n = ilde{O}(d^2/\varepsilon^2) samples and runtime dominated by empirical covariance matrix computation.
result Optimal sample and time complexity bounds for learning a Gaussian under halfspace truncation.

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) minimizes the Euclidean distance between the data matrix and its low rank approximation, and it fails when applied to corrupted data because the loss function is sensitive to outliers. In this paper, we propose a Truncated CauchyNMF loss that handle outliers by truncating large e…

2019-06-02abs ↗pdf ↗

CPCR mitigates bias in PCR for overparameterized models.

problem Bias in Principal Component Regression (PCR) for overparameterized models.
method Calibrated Principal Component Regression (CPCR) learns a low-variance prior in the PC subspace and calibrates the model in the original feature space.
result CPCR outperforms standard PCR in overparameterized settings, improving prediction across multiple problems.

Paper proposes approximate Stein classes for efficient truncated density estimation.

problem Difficulties in estimating truncated density models due to intractable normalising constants and boundary conditions.
method Adapts score matching to solve the problem, introduces approximate Stein classes and a novel discrepancy measure, TKSD.
result TKSD does not require a fixed weighting function and can be evaluated using only boundary samples, leading to improved accuracy.

Motivated by a recent result of Daskalakis et al. 2018, we analyze the population version of Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for the case of \textit{truncated} mixtures of two Gaussians. Truncated samples from a dd-dimensional mixture of two Gaussians $\frac{1}{2} \mathcal{N}(\vecμ, \vecΣ)+ \frac{1}{2} \mathca…

2019-02-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Study analyzes fluctuations in Mexican financial market index.

problem Understanding intra-day fluctuations in Mexican financial market index.
method Statistical analysis of high frequency tick-to-tick data, temporal aggregation, and comparison of distributions.
result Intra-day fluctuations do not follow alpha-stable distributions, suggesting autocorrelations.

Efficiently estimates covariance for sub-Weibull vectors with sub-Gaussian rate.

problem Outliers in high-dimensional covariance estimation.
method Cross-Fitted Norm-Truncated Estimator for Sub-Weibull distributions.
result Achieves optimal sub-Gaussian rate with O(Nd2)O(Nd^2) operations.

Several statistical models are given in the form of unnormalized densities, and calculation of the normalization constant is intractable. We propose estimation methods for such unnormalized models with missing data. The key concept is to combine imputation techniques with estimators for unnormalized models including no…

2019-03-08abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithms estimate parameters of Gaussian and non-Gaussian distributions from truncated samples.

problem Estimating distributional parameters from truncated samples.
method Polynomial time algorithms for exponential families and simple sets.
result Efficient algorithms for estimating parameters of various distributions from truncated samples.

Score matching method improves density estimation for truncated data on manifolds.

problem Density estimation for truncated data on manifolds with intractable normalising constant.
method Truncated score matching extended to Riemannian manifolds with boundary.
result Score matching estimator approximates true parameter values with low error.