A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Explains the difference between EMA and moving EMA, focusing on market trend indicators.
Enhanced trend-following strategy using network momentum for commodity futures.
In this paper we study automatically recognized trends and investigate their statistics. To do that we introduce the notion of a wavelength for time series via cross correlation and use this wavelength to calibrate the 1-2-3 trend indicator of Maier-Paape [Automatic One Two Three, Quantitative Finance, 2013] to automat…
Develops a new trend power indicator using DSP techniques.
Study uses Hawkes processes to analyze stock market contagion in China.
Predict stock trends using news sentiment and technical indicators in Spark.
Optimal trend-following strategy uses simple EMA, avoiding complex cherry-picked signals.
We establish the existence of anomalous excess returns based on trend following strategies across four asset classes (commodities, currencies, stock indices, bonds) and over very long time scales. We use for our studies both futures time series, that exist since 1960, and spot time series that allow us to go back to 18…
Google Trends data improves economic forecasts of private consumption.
Enhances RL for better stock market trading decisions.
In financial time series there are periods in which the value increases or decreases monotonically. We call those periods elemental trends and study the probability distribution of their duration for the indices DJIA, NASDAQ and IPC. It is found that the trend duration distribution often differs from the one expected u…
The model predicts stock price trends and opening, minimum, and maximum prices with reasonable accuracy.
GraphCNNpred predicts stock market indices using deep learning.
We present a symmetry analysis of the distribution of variations of different financial indices, by means of a statistical procedure developed by the authors based on a symmetry statistic by Einmahl and Mckeague. We applied this statistical methodology to financial uninterrupted daily trends returns and to other derive…
Hierarchical hidden Markov models predict market trends in financial time series.
Study measures irreversibility in crypto trends using Kullback-Leibler divergence.
Study finds 'happiness' search data predicts stock returns, suggesting utility needs impact firm performance.
The study aims to explore the strength of causal relationship between stock price search interest and real stock market outcomes on worldwide equity market indices. Such a phenomenon could also be mediated by investor behavior and extent of news coverage. The stock-specific internet search trends data and corresponding…
Empirical study on trends reversion in financial markets.
Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest develo…
Proposes LSTM for financial market trend forecasting.
Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and avera…
We have applied a Long Short-Term Memory neural network to model S&P 500 volatility, incorporating Google domestic trends as indicators of the public mood and macroeconomic factors. In a held-out test set, our Long Short-Term Memory model gives a mean absolute percentage error of 24.2%, outperforming linear Ridge/Lasso…
TASC improves synthetic control for time-series data with trends.
ST-GAN predicts stock trends using financial news and data.
GC 2022 challenges real-time trend detection in financial tick data.
Predicts S&P 500 trends using machine learning models.
The paper uses data science to predict stock trends of Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft.
Price dynamics is analyzed in terms of a model which includes the possibility of effective forces due to trend followers or trend adverse strategies. The method is tested on the data of a minority-majority model and indeed it is capable of reconstructing the prevailing traders' strategies in a given time interval. Then…
Improved genetic algorithm optimizes SVR for robust long-term stock index forecasting.
Study introduces TeMoP model for better stock market predictions.
Study links public concern in Italy to financial markets worldwide.
VolTS uses stats & ML to forecast stock market trends based on volatility.
In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which med…
Transformer model predicts stock trends using technical data and sentiment analysis.
We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility term structure. Thus, are model exploits information from derivative markets to…
We solve exactly a simple model of trend following strategy, and obtain the analytical shape of the profit per trade distribution. This distribution is non trivial and has an option like, asymmetric structure. The degree of asymmetry depends continuously on the parameters of the strategy and on the volatility of the tr…
MiM-StocR combines momentum indicators and adaptive ranking loss for better stock recommendation.
Trend change prediction in complex systems with a large number of noisy time series is a problem with many applications for real-world phenomena, with stock markets as a notoriously difficult to predict example of such systems. We approach predictions of directional trend changes via complex lagged correlations between…
A new GNN model predicts stock trends by learning historical and future correlations.
Study uses AI to analyze emojis for predicting cryptocurrency market trends.
Based on our "finance-prediction-oriented" methodology which involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble" we analyze the 2009 world stock market (here represented by the SP500, Hang Seng and WIG) development. We id…
This study examined how the correlation and network structure of 30 global indices and 145 local Korean indices belonging to the KOSPI 200 have changed during the 13-year period, 2000-2012. The correlations among the indices were calculated. The results showed that although the average correlations of the global indice…
Debate over the existence of branches in the stellar activity-rotation diagrams continues. Application of modern time series analysis tools to study the mean cycle periods in chromospheric activity index is lacking. We develop such models, based on Gaussian processes, for one-dimensional time series and apply it to the…
Study reveals strong price correlations between major and alt-coins.
Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices. During such market regimes, stock prices change at a super-exponential rate and ar…
The study uses machine learning to predict cryptocurrency market trends and design profitable trading strategies.
Portfolio diversification and active risk management are essential parts of financial analysis which became even more crucial (and questioned) during and after the years of the Global Financial Crisis. We propose a novel approach to portfolio diversification using the information of searched items on Google Trends. The…