A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Martingale Doppelgänger-Eval benchmarks VLMs on candlestick evidence vs. trend extrapolation
CNNs identify stock market trend endpoints based on expert opinion.
This work is devoted to modelling and identification of the dynamics of the inter-sectoral balance of a macroeconomic system. An approach to the problem of specification and identification of a weakly formalized dynamical system is developed. A matching procedure for parameters of a linear stationary Cauchy problem wit…
We establish a connection between trend filtering and system identification which results in a family of new identification methods for linear, time-varying (LTV) dynamical models based on convex optimization. We demonstrate how the design of the cost function promotes a model with either a continuous change in dynamic…
The initial analysis of any large data set can be divided into two phases: (1) the identification of common trends or patterns and (2) the identification of anomalies or outliers that deviate from those trends. We focus on the goal of detecting observations with novel content, which can alert us to artifacts in the dat…
Proposes a new DiD method for learning optimal treatment policies.
Enhances RL for better stock market trading decisions.
Introduces a new feature importance measure using Gram-Schmidt decorrelation.
Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions. However, if the demand function is lumpy in nature, then the general demand foreca…
In clinical practice and biomedical research, measurements are often collected sparsely and irregularly in time while the data acquisition is expensive and inconvenient. Examples include measurements of spine bone mineral density, cancer growth through mammography or biopsy, a progression of defective vision, or assess…
The multi dimensional string objects are introduced as a new alternative for an application of string models for time series forecasting in trading on financial markets. The objects are represented by open string with 2-endpoints and D2-brane, which are continuous enhancement of 1-endpoint open string model. We show ho…
Develops a new trend power indicator using DSP techniques.
Forecast future volatilities and correlations based on current trends.
Bitcoin's attention is linked to Google Trends data, not general uncertainty.
Enhanced trend-following strategy using network momentum for commodity futures.
Bayesian model detects internal bleeding in ICU patients.
MILCCI integrates labels across categories for better understanding of multi-trial data.
This paper uses Bayesian models to analyze CTA returns across short and long-term trends.
Extracting the underlying trend signal is a crucial step to facilitate time series analysis like forecasting and anomaly detection. Besides noise signal, time series can contain not only outliers but also abrupt trend changes in real-world scenarios. To deal with these challenges, we propose a robust trend filtering al…
Paper uses AI to predict market trends better than traditional methods.
Ethereum trends analyzed through blockchain transactions and Google searches.
The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is one of the best performing methods to quantify the long-term correlations in nonstationary time series. Many long-term correlated time series in real systems contain various trends. We investigate the effects of polynomial trends on the scaling behaviors and the performa…
The paper presents the comparative study of the nature of stock markets in short-term and long-term time scales with and without structural break in the stock data. Structural break point has been identified by applying Zivot and Andrews structural trend break model to break the original time series (TSO) into time ser…
Paper optimizes trend-following portfolios using autocorrelation models.
AI-driven framework improves enterprise financial audits and risk identification.
Much information available on the web is copied, reused or rephrased. The phenomenon that multiple web sources pick up certain information is often called trend. A central problem in the context of web data mining is to detect those web sources that are first to publish information which will give rise to a trend. We p…
Enhanced LSTM predicts equity trends, outperforming traditional methods.
Empirical study on trends reversion in financial markets.
In this paper we study automatically recognized trends and investigate their statistics. To do that we introduce the notion of a wavelength for time series via cross correlation and use this wavelength to calibrate the 1-2-3 trend indicator of Maier-Paape [Automatic One Two Three, Quantitative Finance, 2013] to automat…
In this article, we discuss various implementation of L1 filtering in order to detect some properties of noisy signals. This filter consists of using a L1 penalty condition in order to obtain the filtered signal composed by a set of straight trends or steps. This penalty condition, which determines the number of breaks…
X-Trend quickly adapts to new financial regimes, increasing Sharpe ratio by 18.9%.
The paper examines how NFT valuations correlate with market data and social trends.
We establish the existence of anomalous excess returns based on trend following strategies across four asset classes (commodities, currencies, stock indices, bonds) and over very long time scales. We use for our studies both futures time series, that exist since 1960, and spot time series that allow us to go back to 18…
Analyzes retail trends from sales, search, and reviews.
Piecewise Aggregate Approximation (PAA) is a competitive basic dimension reduction method for high-dimensional time series mining. When deployed, however, the limitations are obvious that some important information will be missed, especially the trend. In this paper, we propose two new approaches for time series that u…
Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar orbiting weather satellites. We derive two novel algorithms for computation that …
Short-term trend-following has stopped delivering profits since 2009, especially on smaller market ticks.
This paper presents a fast and robust algorithm for trend filtering, a recently developed nonparametric regression tool. It has been shown that, for estimating functions whose derivatives are of bounded variation, trend filtering achieves the minimax optimal error rate, while other popular methods like smoothing spline…
Proposes LSTM for financial market trend forecasting.
Study refines trend-following strategy to improve adaptability.
Trend following in cryptocurrencies yields high returns, similar to commodities.
We find stationary distributions in a financial model with trends and mean-reversion.
Study detects emerging trends in financial news articles about Microsoft.
We investigate possible origins of trends using a deterministic threshold model, where we refer to long-term variabilities of price changes (price movements) in financial markets as trends. From the investigation we find two phenomena. One is that the trend of monotonic increase and decrease can be generated by dealers…
We introduce a simple extension of the minority game in which the market rewards contrarian (resp. trend-following) strategies when it is far from (resp. close to) efficiency. The model displays a smooth crossover from a regime where contrarians dominate to one where trend-followers dominate. In the intermediate phase,…
New model estimates species population trends from citizen science data.
Optimal trend-following strategy uses simple EMA, avoiding complex cherry-picked signals.
Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J.James, Quantitative finance 3 (2003) C75-C77]. We analyze the local trends which are of the main focus of the t…