KEDformer improves long-term time series forecasting with seasonal-trend decomposition.
problem Accurate long-term predictions in energy, finance, and meteorology.
method Knowledge extraction-driven framework integrating seasonal-trend decomposition.
result KEDformer enhances model's ability to capture short-term and long-term patterns.
Decomposing complex time series into trend, seasonality, and remainder components is an important task to facilitate time series anomaly detection and forecasting. Although numerous methods have been proposed, there are still many time series characteristics exhibiting in real-world data which are not addressed properl…
Enhanced time series forecasting with improved trend and seasonal components.
problem Challenges in real-world time series forecasting, especially in multivariate applications.
method Individual decomposition of trend and seasonal components, using different approaches for each.
result Significant reduction in error values, around 10% MSE average reduction across benchmarks.
ST-MTM models complex time series by decomposing and masking seasonal and trend components.
problem Forecasting complex time series with intricate temporal variations.
method Seasonal-Trend Decomposition with Masking and Contrastive Learning.
result ST-MTM achieves superior forecasting performance compared to existing methods.
FEDformer combines Transformer with seasonal-trend decomposition for efficient long-term forecasting.
problem Transformer's inefficiency and inability to capture global time series views.
method Combines seasonal-trend decomposition with Transformer, exploiting Fourier basis for frequency enhancement.
result Reduces prediction error by 14.8% and 22.6% for multivariate and univariate time series, respectively.
OneShotSTL efficiently decomposes time series online, improving speed and accuracy.
problem Real-time analysis of time series data with low processing delay.
method Online seasonal-trend decomposition algorithm with O(1) update time complexity.
result 1,000 times faster than batch methods with comparable accuracy.
Develops portfolio theory without probabilistic analysis, focusing on pathwise decomposition.
problem Ensuring market viability without probabilistic assumptions.
method Uses pathwise decomposition and trend extractors to replace semimartingale decomposition.
result Growth-numéraire and viability equivalences are similar but not identical in pathwise setting.
FreDN separates trends and periodicities in non-stationary time series forecasts.
problem Spectral entanglement and computational burden in frequency-domain methods for non-stationary time series.
method FreDN introduces a learnable Frequency Disentangler module to separate trend and periodic components directly in the frequency domain, and uses a ReIm Block to reduce complexity.
result FreDN outperforms state-of-the-art methods by up to 10% on long-term forecasting benchmarks.
A latent function decomposition method is proposed for forecasting the capacity of lithium-ion battery cells. The method uses the Multi-Output Gaussian Process, a generative machine learning framework for multi-task and transfer learning. The MCGP decomposes the available capacity trends from multiple battery cells int…
Proposes a new graph trend filtering model for inhomogeneous graph signals.
problem Estimating piecewise smooth signals over a graph with varying smoothness levels.
method Introduces a l2,0 norm penalized Graph Trend Filtering (GTF) model and two solution methods: spectral decomposition and simulated annealing.
result The GTF model performs better than existing approaches in denoising, support recovery, and semi-supervised classification.
RobustTAD detects anomalies in diverse time series data.
problem Effective anomaly detection for complex time series data.
method Robust seasonal-trend decomposition + CNN architecture with data augmentation.
result RobustTAD outperforms other methods on public datasets.
Heat demand prediction is a prominent research topic in the area of intelligent energy networks. It has been well recognized that periodicity is one of the important characteristics of heat demand. Seasonal-trend decomposition based on LOESS (STL) algorithm can analyze the periodicity of a heat demand series, and decom…
A new SOHP filter improves trend estimation in economic time series.
problem Improving trend estimation in nonlinear economic time series.
method Recursive application of one-sided HP filter on updated cyclical components, combined with an incremental HP filtering algorithm.
result Better performance of SOHP filter compared to other HP-type filters on real economic data.
Framework isolates causal effects from time series data, improving accuracy under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.
problem Causal inference in non-stationary, autocorrelated time series data.
method Decomposes time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components; performs component-specific causal analysis.
result Framework more accurately recovers ground-truth causal structure than state-of-the-art baselines, especially under strong non-stationarity and temporal autocorrelation.
Singular value decomposition (SVD) is the mathematical basis of principal component analysis (PCA). Together, SVD and PCA are one of the most widely used mathematical formalism/decomposition in machine learning, data mining, pattern recognition, artificial intelligence, computer vision, signal processing, etc. In recen…
Model predicts short-term Amazon rainforest fires with high accuracy.
problem Accurate short-term forecasting of Amazon rainforest fires is challenging.
method Used Seasonal and Trend decomposition based on Loess combined with multi-month-ahead load forecasting algorithms.
result Proposed decomposition-ensemble models provide more accurate forecasts than other models.
ForecastGAN improves multi-horizon time series forecasting by integrating numerical and categorical features.
problem Limited performance of existing approaches in short-term and long-term forecasting.
method Decomposition, model selection, adversarial training.
result ForecastGAN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art transformer models for short-term forecasting.
DiPCA algorithm improves scalability and solution quality for time-dependent data.
problem Analyzing time-dependent multivariate data with dynamic latent variables.
method Solves a large-scale, dense, nonconvex NLP using a scalable decomposition algorithm.
result The decomposition algorithm is a specialized coordinate maximization algorithm, explaining its performance and guiding improvements.
In this paper, in following of the first part (which ADF tests using ACI evaluation) has conducted, Time Series (TSs) are analyzed using decomposition analysis. In fact, TSs are composed of four components including trend (long term behavior or progression of series), cyclic component (non-periodic fluctuation behavior…
A new framework detects changepoints in complex data.
problem Detecting structural changes in data with various patterns and trends.
method Iteratively Reweighted Fused Lasso (IRFL) for L0 model selection.
result IRFL achieves accurate changepoint detection across various challenging scenarios.
Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is a simple but very efficient method for investigating the power-law long-term correlations of non-stationary time series, in which a detrending step is necessary to obtain the local fluctuations at different timescales. We propose to determine the local trends through empirical mo…
In April 2009, we introduced a model representing the evolution of motor fuel price (a subcategory of the consumer price index of transportation) relative to the overall CPI as a linear function of time. Under our framework, all price deviations from the linear trend are transient and the price must promptly return to …
Recently, there has been a trend to combine independent component analysis and canonical polyadic decomposition (ICA-CPD) for an enhanced robustness for the computation of CPD, and ICA-CPD could be further converted into CPD of a 5th-order partially symmetric tensor, by calculating the eigenmatrices of the 4th-order cu…
This work is devoted to modelling and identification of the dynamics of the inter-sectoral balance of a macroeconomic system. An approach to the problem of specification and identification of a weakly formalized dynamical system is developed. A matching procedure for parameters of a linear stationary Cauchy problem wit…
The paper explores anticipative binary information in financial markets using Brownian motion and Poisson processes.
problem Capturing anticipative information in financial markets with Brownian motion and Poisson processes.
method Using Malliavin calculus and filtration enlargement techniques, the paper computes the semimartingale decomposition of the processes.
result The paper provides the exact value of anticipative information in the pure jump case.
With the rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, the research community has started spending considerable effort in technical analysis of such data. Forecasting is also an area which has witnessed a paradigm shift in its approach. In this work, we have u…
DecompKAN improves time series forecasting accuracy and transparency.
problem Accurate and transparent time series forecasting in scientific domains.
method Combines decomposition, patching, normalization, and B-spline KAN edge functions.
result Achieves best or tied-best MSE on 20 of 36 comparisons across 9 datasets.
Develops a new trend power indicator using DSP techniques.
problem Determining the strength and reversibility of trends.
method Derives a novel indicator using digital signal processing.
result Accuracy of the new indicator correlates with PNL performance.
Forecast future volatilities and correlations based on current trends.
problem Predict future volatilities and correlations in financial markets.
method Use cubic and quadratic polynomials of current trend strengths.
result Accurate quantification of trend effects on volatilities and correlations.
In clinical practice and biomedical research, measurements are often collected sparsely and irregularly in time while the data acquisition is expensive and inconvenient. Examples include measurements of spine bone mineral density, cancer growth through mammography or biopsy, a progression of defective vision, or assess…
Bitcoin's attention is linked to Google Trends data, not general uncertainty.
problem Bitcoin's correlation with Google Trends data was previously misunderstood.
method Analyzed bidirectional relationships between Bitcoin returns and Google Trends attention over six days.
result Information flows from Bitcoin volatility to Google Trends attention, not the other way.
Enhanced trend-following strategy using network momentum for commodity futures.
problem Improving systematic trend-following in commodity futures markets.
method Combines univariate and cross-sectional trend indicators, including network momentum.
result Statistically significant improvements in portfolio performance metrics.
This paper uses Bayesian models to analyze CTA returns across short and long-term trends.
problem The relative merits and interactions of short- and long-term trend systems in CTA replication remain controversial.
method Dynamic decomposition of CTA returns into short-term trend, long-term trend, and market beta factors using a Bayesian graphical model.
result The blend of horizons shapes the strategy's risk-adjusted performance.
Extracting the underlying trend signal is a crucial step to facilitate time series analysis like forecasting and anomaly detection. Besides noise signal, time series can contain not only outliers but also abrupt trend changes in real-world scenarios. To deal with these challenges, we propose a robust trend filtering al…
Paper uses AI to predict market trends better than traditional methods.
problem Traditional trend following and momentum investing are limited.
method Uses deep learning and AI techniques for market trend prediction.
result Improves asset manager performance by increasing returns and reducing drawdowns.
Ethereum trends analyzed through blockchain transactions and Google searches.
problem Identifying market manipulation in crypto prices.
method Big data analysis of Ethereum transactions, smart contracts, and search volumes.
result Big players manipulate crypto markets after price drops.
The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is one of the best performing methods to quantify the long-term correlations in nonstationary time series. Many long-term correlated time series in real systems contain various trends. We investigate the effects of polynomial trends on the scaling behaviors and the performa…
Paper optimizes trend-following portfolios using autocorrelation models.
problem Developing an optimal trend-following portfolio strategy.
method Introduces a unifying theoretical setting with autocorrelation models for covariance matrices of trends and risk premia. Specifies practical models for covariance matrices. Decomposes optimal portfolio into four basic components.
result Empirical backtests confirm overperformance of the proposed optimal portfolio.
Much information available on the web is copied, reused or rephrased. The phenomenon that multiple web sources pick up certain information is often called trend. A central problem in the context of web data mining is to detect those web sources that are first to publish information which will give rise to a trend. We p…
This study applies EMD to MSCI World index and converts IMFs into graphs for GNN modeling.
problem Modeling financial time series with GNNs.
method EMD, CEEMDAN, graph transformations (natural visibility, horizontal visibility, recurrence, transition graphs), topological analysis.
result High-frequency IMFs yield dense, highly connected small-world graphs; low-frequency IMFs produce sparser networks.
Enhanced LSTM predicts equity trends, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Nonstationary and nonlinear market regimes challenge trend forecasting.
method LSTM-based framework for forecasting equity trend differences.
result LSTM framework outperforms traditional methods in terms of overall PNL.
Empirical study on trends reversion in financial markets.
problem Understanding when trends in financial markets revert.
method Polynomial regression and bootstrapping on 30 years of daily futures prices.
result Trends revert when they reach a critical level of statistical significance.
In this paper we study automatically recognized trends and investigate their statistics. To do that we introduce the notion of a wavelength for time series via cross correlation and use this wavelength to calibrate the 1-2-3 trend indicator of Maier-Paape [Automatic One Two Three, Quantitative Finance, 2013] to automat…
In this article, we discuss various implementation of L1 filtering in order to detect some properties of noisy signals. This filter consists of using a L1 penalty condition in order to obtain the filtered signal composed by a set of straight trends or steps. This penalty condition, which determines the number of breaks…
X-Trend quickly adapts to new financial regimes, increasing Sharpe ratio by 18.9%.
problem Adapting to rapidly changing financial market conditions.
method Few-shot learning and cross-attention mechanism.
result X-Trend increases Sharpe ratio by 18.9% over a neural forecaster and 10-fold over a conventional strategy.
The paper examines how NFT valuations correlate with market data and social trends.
problem Predicting NFT valuations based on market data and social trends.
method Utilizes public market data, NFT metadata, and social trends data; employs linear regression and recurrent neural networks.
result Identifies correlations between NFT valuations and various features.
We establish the existence of anomalous excess returns based on trend following strategies across four asset classes (commodities, currencies, stock indices, bonds) and over very long time scales. We use for our studies both futures time series, that exist since 1960, and spot time series that allow us to go back to 18…
Analyzes retail trends from sales, search, and reviews.
problem Optimizing inventory and marketing for better customer satisfaction.
method Historical sales data, search trends, and customer reviews.
result Identifies patterns and trending products for retailers.