A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The problem of learning tree-structured Gaussian graphical models from independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples is considered. The influence of the tree structure and the parameters of the Gaussian distribution on the learning rate as the number of samples increases is discussed. Specifically, the error…
Tree structured graphical models are powerful at expressing long range or hierarchical dependency among many variables, and have been widely applied in different areas of computer science and statistics. However, existing methods for parameter estimation, inference, and structure learning mainly rely on the Gaussian or…
Additive models, such as produced by gradient boosting, and full interaction models, such as classification and regression trees (CART), are widely used algorithms that have been investigated largely in isolation. We show that these models exist along a spectrum, revealing never-before-known connections between these t…
We propose a new algorithm to do posterior sampling of Kingman's coalescent, based upon the Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methodology. Specifically, the algorithm is an instantiation of the Particle Gibbs Sampling method, which alternately samples coalescent times conditioned on coalescent tree structures, and tree…
Expectation Propagation (EP) provides a framework for approximate inference. When the model under consideration is over a latent Gaussian field, with the approximation being Gaussian, we show how these approximations can systematically be corrected. A perturbative expansion is made of the exact but intractable correcti…
Cumulant expansion is used to derive accurate closed-form approximation for Monthly Sum Options in case of constant volatility model. Payoff of Monthly Sum Option is based on sum of N caped (and probably floored) returns. It is noticed, that 1/N can be used as a small parameter in Edgeworth expansion. First …
Nowadays, data are generated massively and rapidly from scientific fields as bioinformatics, neuroscience and astronomy to business and engineering fields. Cluster analysis, as one of the major data analysis tools, is therefore more significant than ever. We propose in this work an effective Semi-supervised Divisive Cl…
We introduce a new function-preserving transformation for efficient neural architecture search. This network transformation allows reusing previously trained networks and existing successful architectures that improves sample efficiency. We aim to address the limitation of current network transformation operations that…
We establish multiparameter resolvent trace expansions for elliptic boundary value problems, polyhomogeneous both in the resolvent and the auxiliary parameter. The present analysis is rooted in the joint project with Matthias Lesch on multiparameter resolvent trace expansions on revolution surfaces with applications to…
We define the beta diffusion tree, a random tree structure with a set of leaves that defines a collection of overlapping subsets of objects, known as a feature allocation. A generative process for the tree structure is defined in terms of particles (representing the objects) diffusing in some continuous space, analogou…
Deep sum-product networks learn faster than shallow models.
problem The speed of parameter optimization in sum-product networks.
method Theoretical analysis and empirical experiments on overparameterized sum-product networks.
result Gradient-based optimization in deep sum-product networks is equivalent to gradient ascent with adaptive and time-varying learning rates and additional momentum terms.
The sum-product or belief propagation (BP) algorithm is a widely used message-passing technique for computing approximate marginals in graphical models. We introduce a new technique, called stochastic orthogonal series message-passing (SOSMP), for computing the BP fixed point in models with continuous random variables.…
We develop closed-form approximations for European put options under stochastic volatility models.
problem Tackling the pricing of European put options under stochastic volatility models with time-dependent parameters.
method Using a second-order Taylor expansion around the mean of the argument, we write the option price as an expectation of a Black-Scholes formula. We then simplify the resulting expectations and derive closed-form pricing formulas under the assumption of piecewise-constant parameters.
result We derive closed-form pricing formulas and bounds on the remainder term generated by the Taylor expansion, showing that the errors are well within acceptable ranges for practical applications.
Filters in a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) contain model parameters learned from enormous amounts of data. In this paper, we suggest to decompose convolutional filters in CNN as a truncated expansion with pre-fixed bases, namely the Decomposed Convolutional Filters network (DCFNet), where the expansion coefficient…
In this paper we develop a bubble tree structure for a degenerating class of Riemannian metrics satisfying some global conformal bounds on compact manifolds of dimension 4. Applying the bubble tree structure, we establish a gap theorem, a finiteness theorem for diffeomorphism type for this class, and a diameter bound f…
This work considers the problem of learning the structure of multivariate linear tree models, which include a variety of directed tree graphical models with continuous, discrete, and mixed latent variables such as linear-Gaussian models, hidden Markov models, Gaussian mixture models, and Markov evolutionary trees. The …
Estimates hybrid dynamical systems with polynomial expansions and Markovian switching.
problem Identifying hybrid dynamical systems with nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) components and Markovian switching.
method Probabilistic framework using Expectation Maximization for parameter estimation, including submodel coefficients, hidden state values, and transition probabilities. Disentangles mode classification and NARX regression tasks. Uses soft-labels and coordinate descent approach for parameter fitting.
result Demonstrated on a SMNARX problem with three nonlinear sub-models, achieving parsimonious models through l1-norm bridge estimation and hard-thresholding.
We derive asymptotic expansions for the prices of a variety of European and barrier-style claims in a general local-stochastic volatility setting. Our method combines Taylor series expansions of the diffusion coefficients with an expansion in the correlation parameter between the underlying asset and volatility process…