Deep learning speeds up engine calibration for varied driving conditions.
problem Optimizing engine operation during transient driving cycles for better fuel economy and emissions.
method Parallel simulation-driven machine learning using a physics-based engine simulator.
result Deep neural network surrogate model predicts engine performance and emissions accurately and quickly.
New method uses machine learning to analyze catalyst reactions.
problem Understanding complex reaction mechanisms in catalytic materials.
method Combining transient kinetics and machine learning.
result Correct estimates of micro-kinetic coefficients and mechanism.
Recently, Ross showed that it is possible to recover an objective measure from a risk-neutral measure. His model assumes that there is a finite-state Markov process X that drives the economy in discrete time. Many authors extended his model to a continuous-time setting with a Markov diffusion process X with state space…
A new method improves robustness in image translation by modeling uncertainty.
problem Performance degradation in image translation models due to lack of robustness to outliers and uncertainty.
method UGAC method based on Uncertainty-aware Generalized Adaptive Cycle Consistency, modeling per-pixel residual with generalized Gaussian distribution.
result Our method exhibits stronger robustness towards unseen perturbations in test data.
Develop a variational framework for statistical inference on cyclic interactions.
problem Estimating and comparing large-scale recurrent organization in directed interactions.
method Represent directed interactions as edge flows on a simplicial complex and evolve under an energy-minimizing dynamical system.
result Separate transient interaction components from persistent harmonic flows, yielding a low-dimensional cycle space.
Intelligence emerges from stabilizing invariant cycles in memory.
problem Understanding the nature of intelligence and its emergence.
method Structural-dynamical account rooted in a topological closure law: \(\partial^2=0\).
result Memory-amortized inference (MAI) mechanism that implements SbS \(
ightarrow\) CCUP.
Predicts the age of astronomical transients from real-time data.
problem Improving understanding of transients and their progenitor systems.
method Bayesian probabilistic recurrent neural network.
result Accurately predicts the age of transients with robust uncertainties.
New Roman pipeline detects astronomical transients.
problem Automated detection of transients from Roman Space Telescope data.
method Machine learning model RuBR for distinguishing real from fake detections.
result Effective real-bogus classification in Roman era.
Can engineering neural networks be approached in a disciplined way similar to how engineers build software for civil aircraft? We present nn-dependability-kit, an open-source toolbox to support safety engineering of neural networks for autonomous driving systems. The rationale behind nn-dependability-kit is to consider…
Network models have been popular for modeling and representing complex relationships and dependencies between observed variables. When data comes from a dynamic stochastic process, a single static network model cannot adequately capture transient dependencies, such as, gene regulatory dependencies throughout a developm…
News attention to financial intermediaries and crises predicts excess bond premium and macroeconomic movements.
problem Drivers of the excess bond premium (EBP).
method News attention to 180 topics captures up to 80% of EBP variation and forecasts macroeconomic movements.
result News attention to financial intermediaries and crises drives up the EBP and predicts macroeconomic downturns.
Calculates the transient number of knots using homology groups.
problem Determining the minimal number of arcs needed to trivialize a knot.
method Uses the rank of the first homology group of the double branched cover of the knot.
result Calculates transient numbers for many knots and shows existence of knots with arbitrarily large transient numbers.
Detects anomalies in astronomical time series data.
problem Identifying new and interesting transients in large astronomical surveys.
method Two novel methods: a probabilistic neural network and a Bayesian parametric model.
result Neural networks are less suitable for anomaly detection in time series data compared to parametric models.
We establish a super-replication duality in a continuous-time financial model where an investor's trades adversely affect bid- and ask-prices for a risky asset and where market resilience drives the resulting spread back towards zero at an exponential rate. Similar to the literature on models with a constant spread, ou…
Transient market impact explained via Nash equilibrium in a game.
problem Understanding the transient nature of market impact.
method Analyzing a game between a trader and an arbitrageur, deriving decay kernels.
result Implied transient impact can be derived from trader behavior at Nash equilibrium.
Study non-rectangular robust MDPs for average-reward, finding optimal policies and transient values.
problem Non-rectangular robust Markov decision processes under average-reward criterion.
method Proves history-dependent policies are robust-optimal, introduces transient-value framework, constructs epoch-based policy.
result Existence and properties of robust optimal policies, transient value bounds.
New method decomposes Markov chain rewards into persistent and transient components.
problem Ambiguity in classical evaluation methods for Markov chains with reducible and periodic states.
method Minimal exact quotient by the real peripheral invariant subspace, decomposing rewards into persistent and transient components.
result Exact comparison with classical methods shows that the new decomposition reallocates the same information, making persistent modes explicit.
Study examines the training process of an unsupervised learning model for detecting gravitational-wave transient noise.
problem Transient noise in gravitational-wave detector data causes instability and signal overlap.
method Unsupervised deep learning with variational autoencoder and invariant information clustering applied to the Gravity Spy dataset.
result Training process of the unsupervised learning architecture is examined and reported.
We present RAPID (Real-time Automated Photometric IDentification), a novel time-series classification tool capable of automatically identifying transients from within a day of the initial alert, to the full lifetime of a light curve. Using a deep recurrent neural network with Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), we present th…
Study solves utility maximization in a transient price impact market.
problem Utility maximization in a market with transient price impact.
method Developed a discrete-time model and removed market depth and resilience process restrictions.
result Solved the utility maximization problem without convexity of attainable portfolio values.
We use a control framework to analyze the digital vendor's profit maximization problem. The vendor captures market share by focusing costly effort on post-launch product maintenance, which influences user perception of the product and drives a revenue stream associated with product use. Our theoretical results show nec…
Analysis finds no evidence of banks managing deposit run risk prior to 2023 Regional Banking Crisis.
problem Determining factors for deposit run risk management before a regional banking crisis.
method Cross-sectional analysis of interest rate and equity use by banks.
result No evidence of banks managing deposit run risk via their balance sheet.
Novel method uses information theory to measure causal influences during transient neural events.
problem Characterizing network interactions during transient neural events.
method Structural Causal Models, Information Theory, Transfer Entropy, Dynamic Causal Strength, Relative Dynamic Causal Strength.
result Introduced a novel measure, relative Dynamic Causal Strength, with theoretical and empirical support.
Unsupervised learning classifies transient noise in gravitational wave detectors.
problem Transient noise interferes with gravitational wave signals, causing instability.
method Combines variational autoencoder and invariant information clustering.
result Consistent classification with Gravity Spy project labels.
We discuss an "extrinsic" property of knots in a 3-subspace of the 3-sphere S3 to characterize how the subspace is embedded in S3. Specifically, we show that every knot in a subspace of the 3-sphere is transient if and only if the exterior of the subspace is a disjoint union of handlebodies, i.e. regular neighbor…
CNNs improve transient detection in DES-SN images.
problem Automated identification of transients in astronomical images.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for image classification.
result CNNs achieve efficiency in identifying non-artifacts from artifacts.
Framework for analyzing dynamic topological changes in point clouds using persistent homology and dynamic optimal transport.
problem Analyzing transient structural reorganizations during dynamic phase transitions in time-evolutionary point clouds.
method Hierarchical dynamic evaluation framework driven by topological and hypergraph reconstruction strategy.
result Combining transport-based alignment with multi-scale entropy diagnostics for dynamic topological analysis.
Optimal trading strategy adapts to signals in markets with price impact.
problem Optimal liquidation in markets with linear price impact and predictive signals.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, solved using probabilistic and convex analytic techniques.
result Explicit solution for optimal trading strategy in terms of SDEs.
Probabilistic modeling is cyclical: we specify a model, infer its posterior, and evaluate its performance. Evaluation drives the cycle, as we revise our model based on how it performs. This requires a metric. Traditionally, predictive accuracy prevails. Yet, predictive accuracy does not tell the whole story. We propose…
We study a multiplicative transient price impact model for an illiquid financial market, where trading causes price impact which is multiplicative in relation to the current price, transient over time with finite rate of resilience, and non-linear in the order size. We construct explicit solutions for the optimal contr…
Study optimal execution in a transient price impact model with multiple traders.
problem Optimal execution among multiple traders with transient price impact.
method Analyzed N-player optimal execution games in an Obizhaeva--Wang model with and without regularization. Derived equilibrium solutions and explained their behavior. result Existence of equilibrium restored with a specific time-dependent cost on block trades, and equilibrium is tractable.
New algorithm improves understanding of decentralized SBO transient iteration complexity.
problem Limited understanding of how network topology, data heterogeneity, and nested structures affect SBO.
method D-SOBA framework with two variants: D-SOBA-SO and D-SOBA-FO, providing non-asymptotic convergence analysis and transient iteration complexity.
result First theoretical understanding of how network topology, data heterogeneity, and nested structures influence decentralized SBO.
Unified theory explains housing cycle across metros, showing credit expansion impacts.
problem Puzzling correlations between income and mortgage growth across ZIP codes and metros.
method Unified credit expansion theory, double differences, instrumental variables.
result Credit expansion drives housing cycle, affecting boom, bust, and recovery phases.
SMC analysis reveals key transient effects in macroeconomic ABM.
problem Analysis of complex ABMs is challenging and often relies on ad hoc methods.
method Statistical model checking (SMC) implemented through MultiVeStA.
result Clear contrast across parameter families in macro-financial and structural sweeps.
The study shows how trade uncertainty affects stock-bond correlations over time.
problem Impact of trade policy uncertainty on stock-bond correlations.
method Daily data analysis using GARCH-based models (CCC, STCC, DCC) with TPU and political dummy variables.
result Time-varying correlation models better capture the dynamics of stock-bond correlations than constant models.
Random matrix theory explains transient signal detectability in early-stopped gradient flow.
problem Transient signal detectability in early-stopped gradient flow.
method Random matrix theory applied to gradient flow in a linear teacher-student setting.
result Transient Baik-Ben Arous-Péché (BBP) transition in learning dynamics due to anisotropy and noise.
We present a sparse and invariant representation with low asymptotic complexity for robust unsupervised transient and onset zone detection in noisy environments. This unsupervised approach is based on wavelet transforms and leverages the scattering network from Mallat et al. by deriving frequency invariance. This frequ…
Improves inverse uncertainty quantification for time-dependent data using PCA and deep neural networks.
problem Efficiently quantify model input uncertainties from time-dependent experimental data.
method Functional PCA for dimensionality reduction, deep neural networks for surrogate modeling, Bayesian neural networks for uncertainty estimation.
result The proposed method reduces the computational cost and improves the agreement with experimental data.
One of the greatest challenges in the design of a real-time perception system for autonomous driving vehicles and drones is the conflicting requirement of safety (high prediction accuracy) and efficiency. Traditional approaches use a single frame rate for the entire system. Motivated by the observation that the lack of…
First-passage times in random walks have a vast number of diverse applications in physics, chemistry, biology, and finance. In general, environmental conditions for a stochastic process are not constant on the time scale of the average first-passage time, or control might be applied to reduce noise. We investigate mome…
A new kernel improves statistical surrogates for stochastic manifolds with diverse data.
problem Handling statistical surrogates for stochastic manifolds with heterogeneous data.
method A transient anisotropic kernel is introduced to improve statistical surrogates for stochastic manifolds with heterogeneous data.
result The transient anisotropic kernel provides a better representation of statistical dependencies in the learned probability measure.
Bayesian BIC for multi-trial data improves VAR model order selection.
problem Optimal VAR model order selection for multi-trial event-based data.
method Derive and apply Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for multi-trial ensemble data.
result Multi-trial BIC successfully recovers real model order and estimates small model order.
Ghost mechanism explains abrupt learning in RNNs, revealing constraints on optimization landscapes.
problem Understanding abrupt learning in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) trained on working memory tasks.
method Introducing the ghost mechanism, a process driven by saddle-node bifurcations, to analyze and model abrupt learning.
result A critical learning rate scales as an inverse power law with the timescale of computation, leading to vanishing and oscillatory gradients.
A new ML method speeds up PDE simulations without needing classical training.
problem Accelerating transient PDE simulations using machine learning.
method Online-learned preconditioners using a bandit algorithm.
result One-shot acceleration of PDE simulations.
This study examines how market makers balance risk and impact in foreign exchange markets.
problem Balancing risk management with market impact in foreign exchange markets.
method An intermediate scenario approach considering both instantaneous and permanent market impact components.
result Transient market impact is more prevalent than previously thought, challenging traditional market impact models.
We solve the superhedging problem for European options in an illiquid extension of the Black-Scholes model, in which transactions have transient price impact and the costs and the strategies for hedging are affected by physical or cash settlement requirements at maturity. Our analysis is based on a convenient choice of…
Service-induced congestion in memory-constrained LLM serving
problem Service-induced congestion in memory-constrained large language model (LLM) serving
method Developing a discrete-time dynamical model of memory-constrained LLM inference
result The system converges to a unique worst-case limit cycle that is asymptotically stable outside a Lebesgue-measure-zero exact-capture set, with throughput losses as large as 50%.
We study the problem of the optimal execution of a large trade in the presence of nonlinear transient impact. We propose an approach based on homotopy analysis, whereby a well behaved initial strategy is continuously deformed to lower the expected execution cost. We find that the optimal solution is front loaded for co…