We propose a new algorithm for solving the graph-fused lasso (GFL), a method for parameter estimation that operates under the assumption that the signal tends to be locally constant over a predefined graph structure. Our key insight is to decompose the graph into a set of trails which can then each be solved efficientl…
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48 results for “trailing parameter estimation”
TRAiL is a linear bandit algorithm that ensures optimal regret and guarantees inference quality.
problem Optimal regret and inference quality in linear bandits with convex action sets.
method TRAiL estimates the parameter through regularized least squares and perturbs the action set along the tangent plane.
result TRAiL achieves an upper bound on cumulative regret with high probability.
The Kalman filter and Heston model are used to estimate asset prices and trading performance.
problem Estimating asset prices using stochastic models.
method Kalman filter applied to mean-reverting processes and Heston model with method of moments.
result The Kalman filter and Heston model provide effective methods for estimating asset prices and trading performance.
Trailing stop is a popular stop-loss trading strategy by which the investor will sell the asset once its price experiences a pre-specified percentage drawdown. In this paper, we study the problem of timing buy and then sell an asset subject to a trailing stop. Under a general linear diffusion framework, we study an opt…
A new method detects and removes false trailing balances in credit data.
problem False trailing balances in credit data corrupt risk event timing.
method TruEnd-procedure defines and removes false trailing balances.
result Improved accuracy in predicting risk events and reducing credit losses.
Users form information trails as they browse the web, checkin with a geolocation, rate items, or consume media. A common problem is to predict what a user might do next for the purposes of guidance, recommendation, or prefetching. First-order and higher-order Markov chains have been widely used methods to study such se…
Robots hold promise in many scenarios involving outdoor use, such as search-and-rescue, wildlife management, and collecting data to improve environment, climate, and weather forecasting. However, autonomous navigation of outdoor trails remains a challenging problem. Recent work has sought to address this issue using de…
Online purchase decisions in organizations can go through a complex journey with multiple agents involved in the decision making process. Depending on the product being purchased, and the organizational structure, the process may involve employees who first conduct market research, and then influence decision makers wh…
We show that a critical vulnerability in adversarial imitation is the tendency of discriminator networks to learn spurious associations between visual features and expert labels. When the discriminator focuses on task-irrelevant features, it does not provide an informative reward signal, leading to poor task performanc…
An ant colony optimization approach for partitioning a set of objects is proposed. In order to minimize the intra-variance, or within sum-of-squares, of the partitioned classes, we construct ant-like solutions by a constructive approach that selects objects to be put in a class with a probability that depends on the di…
A finitely generated module over the ring L=Z[t, t^{-1}] of integer Laurent polynomials that has no Z-torsion is determined by a pair of sub-lattices of L^d. Their indices are the absolute values of the leading and trailing coefficients of the order of the module. This description has applications in knot theory.
The paper optimizes portfolios using MACD signals derived from price history.
problem Optimizing risky asset portfolios with latent mean-reverting and momentum factors.
method Derives optimal strategies based on MACD signals from EMA processes.
result Establishes admissibility and verification of optimal strategies.
Discovery of a 13-Sharpe OOS Factor: Drift Regimes Unlock Hidden Cross-Sectional Predictabilityq-fin.TR
High-performing equity factor with Sharpe ratio above 13 out-of-sample.
problem Hidden cross-sectional predictability in stock returns.
method Regime-conditional signal activation combining value and short-term reversal signals.
result Annualized returns of 158.6% with 12.0% volatility, strong performance out-of-sample.
A lifelong reinforcement learning system is a learning system that has the ability to learn through trail-and-error interaction with the environment over its lifetime. In this paper, I give some arguments to show that the traditional reinforcement learning paradigm fails to model this type of learning system. Some insi…
An elementary model of price dynamics in a financial market: Distribution, Multiscaling & Entropyphysics.soc-ph
Stylized facts of empirical assets log-returns include the existence of (semi) heavy tailed distributions and a non-linear spectrum of Hurst exponents . Empirical data considered are daily prices of 10 large indices from 01/01/1990 to 12/31/2004. We propose a stylized model of price dynamics which is…
Investors with anxiety about drawdowns may use stop-loss and trailing stops as optimal selling strategies.
problem Investors' anxiety about drawdowns affects optimal selling strategies.
method Mathematical analysis of optimal stopping with random discounting.
result Stop-loss and trailing stops can be optimal selling strategies under anxiety about drawdowns.
This work abstracts deep neural networks into concept graphs for better interpretability in medical tasks.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep learning models, especially in medical domains.
method Developed a graphical representation of medical image processing models to understand concept-based reasoning.
result Extracted a concept-level graph that reveals the decision-making process of deep learning models.
The Turaev genus defines a natural filtration on knots where Turaev genus zero knots are precisely the alternating knots. We show that the signature of a Turaev genus one knot is determined by the number of components in its all-A Kauffman state, the number of positive crossings, and its determinant. We also show that …
Paper proposes a new method for demand forecasting in pricing contexts.
problem Demand forecasting in pricing contexts, especially in a profit optimal manner.
method Combines Double Machine Learning for causal inference and transformer-based forecasting models.
result Our method outperforms other forecasting methods in off-policy settings.
SusGen-GPT improves financial NLP and ESG report generation.
problem Lack of advanced NLP tools for finance and ESG domains.
method Developed SusGen-30K dataset and SusGen-GPT models.
result Achieved state-of-the-art performance in financial NLP tasks.
Improved stock selection through predictive fundamentals and uncertainty estimates.
problem Selecting stocks based on future financial data to outperform traditional factor models.
method Train deep nets to forecast future fundamentals, incorporate uncertainty estimates, and adjust portfolios to manage risk.
result Simulated annualized return of 17.7% and Sharpe ratio of 0.84 for uncertainty-aware model, significantly higher than 14.0% and 0.52 for standard factor models.
A new kernel test reduces noise in MMD by focusing on leading eigen-directions.
problem Noise in trailing directional components degrades power of standard kernel two-sample tests.
method Truncate MMD spectral decomposition, retaining only leading eigen-directions.
result Our method achieves superior power and robustness, especially in high-dimensional and unbalanced settings.
Decision making from data involves identifying a set of attributes that contribute to effective decision making through computational intelligence. The presence of missing values greatly influences the selection of right set of attributes and this renders degradation in classification accuracies of the classifiers. As …
Skeleton is a new notion designed for constructing space-filling curves of self-similar sets. It is shown in [Dai, Rao and Zhang, Space-filling curves of self-similar sets (II): Edge-to-trail substitution rule,https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/ab1275] that for a connected self-similar set, space-filling curves can be c…
Algorithm estimates principal eigenvector with adaptive sensing, improving over non-adaptive methods.
problem Estimating principal eigenvector with limited scalar measurements.
method Compressed variant of Oja's algorithm using two adaptive measurements per sample.
result Convergence rate of after iterations, matching information-theoretic lower bound.
In this paper we explore methods to exploit symmetries for ensuring sample efficiency in reinforcement learning (RL), this problem deserves ever increasing attention with the recent advances in the use of deep networks for complex RL tasks which require large amount of training data. We introduce a novel method to dete…
We propose a strategy for automated trading, outline theoretical justification of the profitability of this strategy and overview the hypothetical results in application to currency pairs trading. The proposed methodology relies on the assumption that processes reflecting the dynamics of currency exchange rates are in …
The paper tackles model failure detection and refitting in real-world systems.
problem Real-world data often fails statistical models due to heterogeneity.
method Develops tools for detecting and identifying model failures and refitting to improve accuracy.
result Empirical and theoretical results show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
Polarization measurements done using Imaging Polarimeters such as the Robotic Polarimeter are very sensitive to the presence of artefacts in images. Artefacts can range from internal reflections in a telescope to satellite trails that could contaminate an area of interest in the image. With the advent of wide-field pol…
Summary statistics of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) teach causal relationship between millions of genetic markers and tens and thousands of phenotypes. However, underlying biological mechanisms are yet to be elucidated. We can achieve necessary interpretation of GWAS in a causal mediation framework, looking to…
This study shows how social insects and machine learning methods share a common mathematical framework.
problem Understanding how decentralized systems achieve optimal decision-making.
method Developed a rigorous mathematical framework to show isomorphism between ant colonies and ensemble machine learning.
result Demonstrated that ant colony decision-making and random forest learning implement identical variance reduction strategies through decorrelation of identical units.
Study of coloured invariants of torus knots using algebras.
problem Understanding coloured invariants of torus knots .
method Representation theory of principal affine algebras and asymptotic weight multiplicities.
result Limits of renormalized invariants are equal to characters of algebra modules.
Global Optimization of Minority Game by Smart Agentscond-mat.stat-mech
We propose a new model of minority game with so-called smart agents such that the standard deviation and the total loss in this model reach the theoretical minimum values in the limit of long time. The smart agents use trail and error method to make a choice but bring global optimization to the system, which suggests t…
LLMs help automate extraction of actuarial variables from unstructured claims data.
problem Manual processing of unstructured claims data is time-consuming and inconsistent.
method Two-stage processing architecture using LLMs, modular Python pipeline.
result LLM-based extraction achieved high accuracy and practical actuarial value.
CLQT benchmarks LLM portfolio managers by evaluating their decision-making process, not just returns.
problem Most benchmarks rank LLMs by returns, ignoring their decision-making process and potential for look-ahead leakage.
method CLQT reframes evaluation as diagnosis, using a closed-loop, cost-aware, strategy-consistent environment with a five-stage cycle.
result CLQT provides a durable map of agent competencies and limitations, separating outcome from process.
Adaptive market maker curves minimize arbitrage losses in DeFi.
problem Asset trading prices in AMMs trail behind centralized exchanges, causing LP losses.
method Adapts market maker bonding curves to trader behavior using a differential equation derived from the Glosten-Milgrom model.
result Optimal adaptive curves minimize arbitrage losses while remaining competitive.
Many methods for automated software test generation, including some that explicitly use machine learning (and some that use ML more broadly conceived) derive new tests from existing tests (often referred to as seeds). Often, the seed tests from which new tests are derived are manually constructed, or at least simpler t…
We introduce a novel scheme to train binary convolutional neural networks (CNNs) -- CNNs with weights and activations constrained to {-1,+1} at run-time. It has been known that using binary weights and activations drastically reduce memory size and accesses, and can replace arithmetic operations with more efficient bit…
Physics-constrained GP predicts material states under shockwave conditions.
problem Predicting material states under extreme shockwave conditions.
method Physics-constrained Gaussian Process regression with Rankine-Hugoniot constraints.
result Reproduces Hugoniot curves with satisfactory accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
In this paper, we present an approach for identification of actions within depth action videos. First, we process the video to get motion history images (MHIs) and static history images (SHIs) corresponding to an action video based on the use of 3D Motion Trail Model (3DMTM). We then characterize the action video by ex…
Tail-Safe hedging uses reinforcement learning with a safety layer to manage financial risks.
problem Managing financial risks in derivatives trading with robustness and explainability.
method Combines distributional reinforcement learning with a CBF-QP safety layer to enforce financial constraints.
result Improves risk management without degrading central performance and avoids hard constraint violations.
Dual Bayesian Affine Estimators for Wiener-type state-space models
problem Estimating parameters in Wiener-type state-space models
method Fixed-point architecture combining two affine estimators
result Dual basis-parameter estimator achieves comparable parameter MSE to purely affine estimator
Deep learning outperforms traditional methods in estimating OU process parameters.
problem Parameter estimation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is challenging.
method Used a multi-layer perceptron to estimate OU process parameters compared to traditional methods like Kalman filter and maximum likelihood estimation.
result Deep learning method outperforms traditional methods in parameter estimation of the OU process.
BTZSC benchmarks zero-shot text classification across diverse models.
problem Systematically comparing zero-shot text classification across various models.
method Comprehensive benchmark of 22 datasets, comparing NLI cross-encoders, embedding models, rerankers, and instruction-tuned LLMs.
result Rerankers and instruction-tuned LLMs outperform NLI cross-encoders, with rerankers setting a new state-of-the-art.
On a periodic basis, publicly traded companies are required to report fundamentals: financial data such as revenue, operating income, debt, among others. These data points provide some insight into the financial health of a company. Academic research has identified some factors, i.e. computed features of the reported d…
Deep learning estimates time-varying Markov model parameters.
problem Estimating time-dependent parameters in Markov models.
method Reframes parameter estimation as an optimization problem using maximum likelihood.
result Real solution close to SDE with neural network-derived parameters under specific conditions.
Deep learning used for parameter estimation in hard-to-infer models.
problem Parameter estimation in intractable models like max-stable processes.
method Train deep neural networks on simulated data to estimate parameters.
result Deep learning provides accurate and faster parameter estimation.
New method improves parameter estimation in complex stochastic models.
problem Parameter calibration in stochastic models with unavailable analytical likelihood.
method Gradient-based simulated parameter estimation with multi-time scale stochastic approximation.
result Enhanced estimation accuracy and reduced computational costs.