To detect the irregular trade behaviors in the stock market is the important problem in machine learning field. These irregular trade behaviors are obviously illegal. To detect these irregular trade behaviors in the stock market, data scientists normally employ the supervised learning techniques. In this paper, we empl…
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48 results for “trading behavior”
Study examines if LLMs' trading styles match real market behavior.
problem Lack of behavioral consistency in LLMs' trading strategies.
method Year-long simulations with LLMs, operationalizing behavioral finance drivers, and comparing with financial theory.
result LLMs' strategy switching is only partially consistent with behavioral finance theories.
New framework analyzes pre-stock jump trading behaviors using multivariate time series analysis.
problem Understanding micro-trading behaviors before stock price jumps.
method Multivariate time series analysis considering temporal information.
result Identifies highly informative attributes for predicting price jumps.
Robinhood users react strongly to overnight price changes and big losers, trading quickly after extreme losses.
problem Understanding trading behavior of Robinhood users, especially in high-frequency trading scenarios.
method Analyzed intraday and overnight price changes, focusing on big losers and gainers.
result Robinhood users react more to overnight price changes and big losers, trading quickly after extreme losses.
Market crowd trading behavior and volume impact stock prices in China.
problem Little known about the role of trading volume in market behavior.
method Adaptive hypotheses tested on Chinese stock market data.
result Market crowd trades efficiently and achieves agreement on prices.
This paper analyzes DRL strategies in finance, revealing unique trading patterns and performance differences.
problem Limited research on DRL behavior in finance applications.
method Analysis of trading behaviors and purchase diversity of DRL algorithms (A2C, PPO, SAC, DDPG, TD3).
result DRL algorithms exhibit distinct trading patterns and performance differences, with A2C outperforming others in terms of cumulative rewards.
Trading behavior and excess volatility in toy marketscond-mat.stat-mech
We study the relation between the trading behavior of agents and volatility in toy markets of adaptive inductively rational agents. We show that excess volatility, in such simplified markets, arises as a consequence of {\em i)} the neglect of market impact implicit in price taking behavior and of {\em ii)} excessive re…
Dynamics of the Number of Trades of Financial Securitiescond-mat.stat-mech
We perform a parallel analysis of the spectral density of (i) the logarithm of price and (ii) the daily number of trades of a set of stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange. The stocks are selected to be representative of a wide range of stock capitalization. The observed spectral densities show a different power-…
AI agents in experimental markets exhibit behavioral patterns that aggregate into market dynamics.
problem Understanding AI trading behavior and its impact on market dynamics.
method Experimental asset markets populated by AI agents trained on Large Language Models (LLMs).
result AI agents' behavior leads to market dynamics similar to human traders, including bubbles.
Are cryptocurrency traders driven by a desire to invest in a new asset class to diversify their portfolio or are they merely seeking to increase their levels of risk? To answer this question, we use individual-level brokerage data and study their behavior in stock trading around the time they engage in their first cryp…
StockAgent uses AI to simulate real-world stock trading, analyzing external factors and profitability.
problem Investors need to understand how external factors affect stock trading.
method Developed StockAgent, a multi-agent system driven by large language models.
result Identified how external factors impact trading behavior and profitability.
Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, a phenomenon called "loss aversion". Despite of the fact that prospect theory…
Generative AI reduces herd behavior in trading, but can also lead to optimal herding.
problem Impact of generative AI on financial stability and herd behavior.
method Laboratory experiments with large language models replicating human trading behavior.
result AI agents make more rational decisions than humans, reducing herd behavior but also potentially leading to optimal herding.
Twitter promotes cryptocurrency pump-and-dumps, affecting trading behavior and returns.
problem The influence of Twitter on cryptocurrency pump-and-dump events.
method Analysis of abnormal returns, trading volume, and tweet activity.
result Investors relying on Twitter information sell later, leading to significant losses.
Model shows how price impact and transaction costs affect trading behavior and profits.
problem Analyzing trading behavior and profits in markets with transaction costs and price impact.
method Proves the existence of an equilibrium in a model with transaction costs and price impact.
result Existence of a strictly positive optimal transaction cost from the exchange's perspective.
Deep Reputation Scoring in DeFi: zScore-Based Wallet Ranking from Liquidity and Trading Signalsq-fin.GN
Framework scores DeFi users based on liquidity and trading behavior.
problem Distinguishing between liquidity provision and active trading in DeFi.
method Rule-based decomposition, deep residual neural network, pool-level context.
result Deep residual neural network improves user scoring and risk assessment.
Although the understanding of and motivation behind individual trading behavior is an important puzzle in finance, little is known about the connection between an investor's portfolio structure and her trading behavior in practice. In this paper, we investigate the relation between what stocks investors hold, and what …
ClusterLOB clusters market events to identify different trading behaviors.
problem Understanding market microstructure and participant behavior in financial markets.
method ClusterLOB uses K-means++ algorithm to cluster market events based on six time-dependent features.
result ClusterLOB identifies three distinct trading behaviors: directional, opportunistic, and market-making participants.
Financial markets display scale-free behavior in many different aspects. The power-law behavior of part of the distribution of individual wealth has been recognized by Pareto as early as the nineteenth century. Heavy-tailed and scale-free behavior of the distribution of returns of different financial assets have been c…
Model predicts option movements using residual transactions for better market timing.
problem Predicting option movements using standard metrics like open interest and trading volume.
method Analyzes residual transactions, integrates machine learning and regression techniques.
result Identifies early indicators of market trends for better option price forecasting.
We derive behavioral finance option pricing formulas consistent with the rational dynamic asset pricing theory. In the existing behavioral finance option pricing formulas, the price process of the representative agent is not a semimartingale, which leads to arbitrage opportunities for the option seller. In the literatu…
RL agent learns to avoid market spoofing.
problem Avoiding subtle non-normative behavior in trading agents.
method Learned recognizer incorporated into RL agent's reward function.
result RL agent avoids spoofing while remaining profitable.
This study examines how DEXs impact traders' behavior in perpetual futures contracts.
problem Understanding trader behavior in decentralized exchanges.
method Categorizing DEX models and analyzing their impact on trading patterns.
result DEXs, particularly those using VAMM, show differential effects on long and short positions.
A microeconomic approach is proposed to derive the fluctuations of risky asset price, where the market participants are modeled as prospect trading agents. As asset price is generated by the temporary equilibrium between demand and supply, the agents' trading behaviors can affect the price process in turn, which is cal…
TRIBE model uses LLMs to simulate human trading behavior in bond markets.
problem Complexities in decentralized bond market transactions.
method Agent-based model augmented with LLMs to simulate human-like decision-making.
result Slight trade aversion in LLMs can lead to complete market collapse.
A simple trading model based on pair pattern strategy space with holding periods is proposed. Power-law behaviors are observed for the return variance , the price impact and the predictability for both models with linear and square root impact functions. The sum of the traders' wealth displays a positive v…
Motivated by how transaction amount constrain trading volume and price volatility in stock market, we, in this paper, study the relation between volume and price if amount of transaction is given. We find that accumulative trading volume gradually emerges a kurtosis near the price mean value over a trading price range …
In financial markets, abnormal trading behaviors pose a serious challenge to market surveillance and risk management. What is worse, there is an increasing emergence of abnormal trading events that some experienced traders constitute a collusive clique and collaborate to manipulate some instruments, thus mislead other …
Replication of Reference-Dependent Preferences and the Risk-Return Trade-Off in the Chinese Marketq-fin.ST
Study replicates reference-dependent preferences impact on risk-return trade-off in Chinese stock market.
problem Impact of reference-dependent preferences on risk-return trade-off in Chinese stock market.
method Utilized CGO proxy, econometric techniques (Dependent Double Sorting, Fama-MacBeth regressions), and data from 1995-2024.
result Reference-dependent preferences have a weaker or absent positive risk-return relationship in the Chinese market.
We introduce a trade strategy representation theorem for performance measurement and portable alpha in high frequency trading, by embedding a robust trading algorithm that describe portfolio manager market timing behavior, in a canonical multifactor asset pricing model. First, we present a spectral test for market timi…
This paper studies liquidity providers in decentralized exchanges.
problem Understanding how liquidity providers behave in DEXes.
method Analyzed operations on Uniswap, measured investment strategy, returns, and risks.
result Liquidity providers benefit from transaction fees and determine their strategy based on market changes.
Centralized exchanges influence staking behavior and decentralization in Proof of Stake blockchain ecosystems.
problem How do centralized exchanges affect staking behavior and decentralization in Proof of Stake blockchain ecosystems?
method Formulate a continuous-time mean field model of miners as validators and traders in a centralized market.
result Centralized trading activities enhance staking participation and promote decentralization through market incentives.
In this study, we investigate the statistical properties of the returns and the trading volume. We show a typical example of power-law distributions of the return and of the trading volume. Next, we propose an interacting agent model of stock markets inspired from statistical mechanics [24] to explore the empirical fin…
A model of adaptive, market behavior generating positive returns, volatility and system riskq-fin.TR
We describe a simple model for speculative trading based on adaptive behavior of economic agents.The adaptive behavior is expressed through a feedback mechanism for changing agents' stock-to-bond ratios, depending on the past performance of their portfolios.The stock price is set according to the demand-supply for the …
The imbalance of buying and selling functions profoundly in the formation of market trends, however, a fine-granularity investigation of the imbalance is still missing. This paper investigates a unique transaction dataset that enables us to inspect the imbalance of buying and selling on the man-times level at high freq…
Model predicts OTC dealers' trading behavior using historical data.
problem Predicting the trading decisions of OTC dealers for US corporate bonds.
method Applied machine learning methods, including neural networks and clustering.
result PPRZ Transformer model outperforms other models in predicting dealer behavior.
Trading bubbles form when traders adapt to price mismatches.
problem Self-sustained price bubbles driven by adaptive trading behavior.
method Multi-agent model illustrating price bubble formation and statistical properties.
result Price bubbles can be driven by adaptive investment strategies.
We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use transaction volume probability to describe price volatility uncertainty and intens…
A characteristic feature of complex systems in general is a tight coupling between their constituent parts. In complex socio-economic systems this kind of behavior leads to self-organization, which may be both desirable (e.g. social cooperation) and undesirable (e.g. mass panic, financial "bubbles" or "crashes"). Abund…
In this note we study the bilateral merchandise trade flows between 186 countries over the 1948-2005 period using data from the International Monetary Fund. We use Pajek to identify network structure and behavior across thresholds and over time. In particular, we focus on the evolution of trade "islands" in the a world…
Traders in a stock market exchange stock shares and form a stock trading network. Trades at different positions of the stock trading network may contain different information. We construct stock trading networks based on the limit order book data and classify traders into classes using the -shell decomposition m…
Analysis of the phenomenon of speculative trading in one of its basic manifestations: postage stamp bubblescond-mat.stat-mech
We document and analyze the empirical facts concerning one of the clearest evidence of speculation in financial trading as observed in the postage collection stamp market. We unravel some of the mechanisms of speculative behavior which emphasize the role of fancy and collective behavior. In our conclusion, we propose a…
Paper uses DDQN for trading assets, showing better performance than market benchmarks.
problem Improving financial trading strategies using AI.
method Double Deep Q-Network (DDQN) algorithm for trading multiple assets.
result Trading agent outperformed market benchmarks and achieved higher net asset value.
The dynamics of traded value revisitedphysics.soc-ph
We conclude from an analysis of high resolution NYSE data that the distribution of the traded value (or volume) has a finite variance for the very large majority of stocks , and the distribution itself is non-universal across stocks. The Hurst exponent of the same time series displays a crossover from we…
We develop a behavioral asset pricing model in which agents trade in a market with information friction. Profit-maximizing agents switch between trading strategies in response to dynamic market conditions. Due to noisy private information about the fundamental value, the agents form different evaluations about heteroge…
Quantitative analysis of order-splitting behavior in Japanese stock market.
problem Understanding and quantifying the order-splitting behavior of traders in the Japanese stock market.
method Analysis of a large dataset of trading accounts over nine years, clustering traders into order-splitting and random traders, and applying statistical methods to analyze metaorder length and sign correlation.
result The metaorder length distribution follows power laws with exponent α, and the sign correlation exponent γ is approximately α-1, supporting the LMF model.
AlphaForgeBench evaluates LLMs as quantitative researchers, not trading agents, to address instability in financial decision-making.
problem Behavioral instability of LLMs in sequential decision-making under financial uncertainty.
method Proposes AlphaForgeBench, a framework that requires LLMs to generate executable alpha factors and compose factor-based trading strategies.
result Eliminates execution-induced instability and provides a rigorous benchmark for evaluating financial reasoning.
This paper detects fraudulent trading in the NFT market.
problem Fraudulent activities like wash trading in the NFT market.
method Unsupervised learning using K-means clustering on market data.
result Identified groups of traders with suspicious behavior.