Paper predicts international trade flows using machine learning and factorization models.
problem Predicting international bilateral trade flows with PTAs.
method Two-stage approach combining SHAP Explainer and Factorization Machine models.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy and deeper insights into trade dynamics.
Paper examines costs of using wrong price impact models in trading.
problem Misspecifying price impact models in trading predictions.
method Derives formulas for misspecification costs and applies to trading data.
result Misspecification costs are asymmetric, affecting profits and losses.
A dynamic herding model with interactions of trading volumes is introduced. At time t, an agent trades with a probability, which depends on the ratio of the total trading volume at time t−1 to its own trading volume at its last trade. The price return is determined by the volume imbalance and number of trades. The …
Model predicts trading strategies based on latent demand and price impact.
problem Predicting strategic trading behavior of investors with private targets.
method Equilibrium model of dynamic trading, learning, and pricing by strategic investors.
result Trading strategies are a combination of target following, liquidity provision, and front-running based on latent demand and price pressure.
Optimal transport and neural networks improve trade modeling accuracy.
problem Capturing subtler drivers of trade beyond supply and demand.
method Employing optimal transport and deep neural networks to learn a time-dependent cost function from data.
result Consistently outperforms traditional gravity models in accuracy.
Brazil proposes a new BRICS trade currency to dominate international trade.
problem Dominance of BRICS currency in international trade.
method Mathematical model of influence battle between three currencies, using trade flows and weights in global trade.
result By 2012, about 58% of countries preferred trading with the BRICS currency.
Develops a new flexible grid trading model using ANN and SSO.
problem Improving automated trading strategies in financial markets.
method Combines SSO algorithm with ANN for optimizing trading parameters.
result Provides a robust and efficient trading model with better returns.
Model reconstructs and simulates international trade networks under policy changes.
problem Reconstructing and simulating international trade networks under policy changes.
method Maximizing entropy based on local trade information to reconstruct networks; simulating structural changes using trade tariffs.
result Trade networks can be successfully reconstructed and simulated under policy changes.
Continuous-time model shows insider trading constraints impact market dynamics.
problem Trading constraints faced by insiders in continuous-time models.
method Proved global existence of equilibrium with terminal trading constraint.
result Equilibrium model aligns with empirical market behaviors.
Extended Kyle model with long memory trading volume, finds excessive price volatility.
problem Understanding insider trading dynamics with long memory trading volume.
method Extended Kyle model with stochastic noise trading volatility and long memory trading volume.
result Excessive price volatility due to insider's aggressive trading strategy in high noise trading volume.
This paper builds a model of high-frequency equity returns by separately modeling the dynamics of trade-time returns and trade arrivals. Our main contributions are threefold. First, we characterize the distributional behavior of high-frequency asset returns both in ordinary clock time and in trade time. We show that wh…
Paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning model for forex trading that considers transaction costs.
problem Trading in forex markets with high transaction costs and non-stationary data.
method Deep reinforcement learning model considering transaction costs and online learning.
result Maximizes profit while keeping transaction costs low in non-stationary markets.
Study evaluates 41 ML models for Bitcoin trading performance.
problem Predicting Bitcoin prices for algorithmic trading.
method Examined 21 classifiers and 20 regressors under various market conditions.
result Certain models like Random Forest and Stochastic Gradient Descent outperform others in profit and risk management.
Study shows how crypto asset liquidity is affected by wash trading and proposes treatment to reduce liquidity diffusion.
problem Understanding and reducing crypto asset wash trading to improve liquidity.
method Proposed a two-component model for liquidity (jump and diffusion) and demonstrated the effectiveness of autoregressive models.
result Treatment on wash trading significantly reduces liquidity diffusion but not liquidity jump.
Kyle's equilibrium model stability proven for 1-2 trading times, but not for 3 or more.
problem Stability of Kyle's equilibrium model in a dynamic trading setting.
method Proof of stability for 1-2 trading times, non-stability for 3 or more trading times, independent of input parameters.
result Kyle's equilibrium model is stable for 1-2 trading times but not for 3 or more trading times.
Trading-R1 uses LLMs for financial trading, improving risk-adjusted returns.
problem Lack of interpretability and trust in AI for finance.
method Supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning with a curriculum.
result Improved risk-adjusted returns and lower drawdowns compared to other models.
Paper introduces a new model to assess machine learning strategies in high-frequency trading.
problem Evaluating the economic impact of supervised machine learning in high-frequency trading.
method Developed a 'trade information matrix' to attribute profit and loss to correct and incorrect predictions under execution constraints.
result Demonstrated an estimation approach for measuring the sensitivity of P&L to prediction error in a market making strategy.
Convolutional Neural Networks predict forex trends from charts.
problem Predicting forex trends from trading charts.
method Pre-process data, train CNN, evaluate model performance.
result Trades strategies can be automatically generated.
Deep RL strategy improves natural gas trading performance.
problem Improving natural gas trading performance using Deep RL.
method Domain-adapted Deep RL for natural gas futures trading.
result Deep RL strategy outperforms benchmarks and reduces transaction costs.
New model improves inference on asset market durations.
problem Statistical artifacts in trade aggregation.
method Flexible stochastic duration model with uncertainty in related trades.
result Conditional hazard function varies less than previous studies.
Deep learning predicts cryptocurrency price movements from trade data.
problem Predicting short-term price changes in cryptocurrencies.
method Long Short-term Memory Network (LSTM) trained on trade-by-trade data.
result Optimal LSTM model achieves over 60% accuracy on out-of-sample test periods.
HFformer outperforms LSTM in high-frequency trading with multiple signals.
problem Improving high-frequency trading performance using deep learning models.
method Introducing HFformer, a hybrid Transformer model for time series forecasting.
result HFformer achieves higher cumulative PnL than LSTM in backtesting.
Optimal trading strategy for multiple futures contracts with stochastic bases.
problem Dynamic trading of multiple futures contracts with different underlying assets.
method Proposed a multi-dimensional scaled Brownian bridge model to capture joint dynamics, leading to semi-explicit solutions of HJB equations.
result Derived optimal long-short trading strategy that considers contango and backwardation.
TraderTalk uses LLMs to simulate human trading interactions in financial markets.
problem Simulating realistic human trading interactions in financial markets.
method Hybrid ABM with LLM-generated behaviors for detailed conversations.
result Successfully replicates trade-to-order volume ratios in financial markets.
VMAT strategy improves multivariate pair trading performance.
problem Leveraging multivariate time series for profitable portfolio management.
method Volatility & Model Adaption Trade-off (VMAT) strategy.
result VMAT strategy outperforms baseline strategies.
Paper develops models for better HFT and algorithmic trading.
problem Inaccurate LOB dynamics in financial markets.
method Semi-Markov and Hawkes jump-diffusion models for LOB dynamics.
result Improved trading strategies through precise model application.
Proposes deep mixture models for probabilistic price movement forecasting in high-frequency trading.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of price movements in high-frequency trading.
method Deep recurrent neural networks with probabilistic mixture models.
result Outperforms benchmark models in both metric-based and simulated trading scenarios.
A new trading model combines GARCH and PPO for better stock trading profits.
problem Limited performance of reinforcement learning in stock market trading.
method Parallel-network continuous trading model using GARCH and PPO.
result The model achieves more profit compared to traditional reinforcement learning methods.
Enhances pairs trading with neural networks and Kalman Filters.
problem Inaccurate linear models in pairs trading lead to suboptimal performance.
method Augments Kalman Filter with Neural Networks to improve financial indicator extraction.
result Empirically shows improved trading performance compared to benchmarks.
Study evaluates three ML models for high-frequency trading.
problem Improving accuracy and reliability of high-frequency trading strategies.
method Compared three models: cross-entropy loss + quasi-Newton, FCNN, and vector machine.
result Combination of cross-entropy loss and quasi-Newton outperformed other models.
Paper proposes a new model to prevent tariff wars by balancing trade balances.
problem Inequality in trade relations and tariff wars.
method Developed an algorithm to achieve zero trade balance for each country.
result Achieving zero trade balance prevents tariff wars and recession.
Study examines how trading volumes and transactions affect stock volatility.
problem Understanding the impact of trading volumes and transactions on stock volatility.
method Used GARCH models to analyze daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
result GARCH effects are not always removed by adding trading volumes or transactions, suggesting they don't fully represent information arrivals.
StockAgent uses AI to simulate real-world stock trading, analyzing external factors and profitability.
problem Investors need to understand how external factors affect stock trading.
method Developed StockAgent, a multi-agent system driven by large language models.
result Identified how external factors impact trading behavior and profitability.
Study adversarial attacks on automated trading systems.
problem Robustness of deep learning models in algorithmic trading.
method New attacks with size constraints to evaluate model robustness.
result Realistic adversarial attacks can fool automated trading systems.
Study improves Cox model for predicting stock trading signs using Japanese market data.
problem Improving Cox model for predicting stock trading signs using Japanese market data.
method Added new covariates and used high-frequency trading data for 222 Nikkei 225 stocks.
result Cox-type model performs well in Japanese market and identifies key factors for accurate estimation.
Proposes a Coulomb-like model for international trade flows, fitting real-world data.
problem Describing and predicting international trade flows between countries.
method Formulated a coulomb force model where GDP represents charge and distance is influenced by various factors.
result Developed a trade strength distribution equation that fits real-world data well.
We describe an end-to-end real-time S&P futures trading system. Inner-shell stochastic nonlinear dynamic models are developed, and Canonical Momenta Indicators (CMI) are derived from a fitted Lagrangian used by outer-shell trading models dependent on these indicators. Recursive and adaptive optimization using Adaptive …
Trading strategies evolve in a simulated market to outperform real data.
problem Creating profitable trading strategies in diverse market conditions.
method Agent-based model of heterogeneous agents evolving deep neural networks.
result Elite trading algorithms outperform in real high-frequency foreign exchange data.
Deep RL applied for Indian stock trading strategies.
problem Designing profitable trading strategies for Indian stock markets.
method Applied deep reinforcement learning to ten Indian stock datasets.
result Models' performance compared and evaluated.
Model analyzes trading frictions in cap-and-trade markets, showing how they interact to affect market effectiveness.
problem Analyzing how trading frictions impact cap-and-trade market effectiveness.
method Developed a dynamic stochastic model with multiple trading frictions, characterized access choices in closed form, and quantified using EU ETS data.
result Trading frictions interact to amplify or dampen market responses, and their combined effect is non-additive.
Study shows CCLs have minimal impact on most trades but can affect some.
problem Impact of counterparty credit limits on everyday trading prices.
method Analyzed high-quality data from a foreign exchange spot market and developed a new trading model.
result CCLs had little impact on most trades but can have major impact in specific scenarios.
Study combines sentiment analysis with traditional models for better S&P 500 trading.
problem Improving trading performance in volatile markets.
method Sentiment analysis from financial news, GPT-2, FinBERT, combined with technical indicators and time-series models.
result Combining sentiment-driven insights with traditional models improves trading performance.
Agentic LLMs improve trading by estimating market risk.
problem Lack of principled model-building step in agentic frameworks for finance.
method Developed an agentic system using LLMs to discover stochastic differential equations for financial time series.
result Model-informed trading strategies outperform standard LLM-based agents, improving Sharpe ratios.
Study optimal dynamic basis trading strategies with stochastic basis model.
problem Optimal dynamic trading of futures and underlying asset under stochastic basis.
method Model basis evolution as stopped scaled Brownian bridge, solve utility maximization problem with HARA risk preferences.
result Derive exact conditions for optimal trading strategies and solve explicitly.
QTNet uses deep reinforcement learning to automate trading strategies.
problem Handling noisy and high-frequency financial data, balancing exploration and exploitation.
method QTNet employs deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with imitative learning to autonomously formulate trading strategies.
result QTNet demonstrates proficiency in extracting robust market features and adaptability to diverse conditions.
A deep Q-learning strategy optimizes portfolio trading efficiency.
problem Optimizing dynamic portfolio allocation schemes.
method Formulated a Markov decision process model with deep Q-learning for discrete combinatorial actions.
result Outperforms benchmark strategies in real-world trading simulations.
Sentiment analysis from LLMs improves financial trading performance.
problem Improving dynamic strategy optimization in financial markets.
method Integration of sentiment analysis from LLMs into RL frameworks.
result Sentiment-enhanced RL models outperform traditional RL models in net worth and cumulative profit.
Develops a model for optimal trading with uncertain volume targets.
problem Optimal trading strategy under uncertain volume targets.
method Model incorporating risk term related to volume uncertainty.
result Delayed trades can be optimal for risk-averse traders.