A new thompson sampling method controls for time-varying effects.
problem Dynamic experiments in online services with time-varying effects.
method Odds-ratio Thompson Sampling
result The proposed method works robust to time-varying effects.
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “time-varying reward”
A new algorithm for personalized recommendations adapts to changing user interests.
problem Adapting to time-varying user interests in recommendation systems.
method Contextual bandit approach with models for disjoint and hybrid payoffs.
result Sublinear regret in time length T for abrupt reward changes.
Paper tackles non-stationary kernelized bandits with near-optimal algorithm.
problem Minimizing regret in a time-varying reward function.
method Near-optimal algorithm with a novel restarting phased elimination with random permutation (R-PERP).
result Regret upper bound matches the lower bound, making the algorithm near-optimal.
This paper proposes a formal approach to online learning and planning for agents operating in a priori unknown, time-varying environments. The proposed method computes the maximally likely model of the environment, given the observations about the environment made by an agent earlier in the system run and assuming know…
Study local exploration on dynamic graphs with time-varying edges.
problem Learning optimal actions in a network with changing connections.
method Local explore-then-commit algorithms under a structural condition ensuring intrinsic walk stability.
result Sublinear expected regret for reward-aware strategies.
New findings on universal learning in contextual bandits with adversarial rewards.
problem Learning in contextual bandits with time-varying, adversarial rewards.
method Characterization of learnable processes and necessary/sufficient conditions for universal learning.
result Optimistic universal learning for contextual bandits with adversarial rewards is impossible in general.
Machine learning improves portfolio allocation between index and risk-free assets.
problem Finding optimal portfolio rules for time-varying returns and volatility.
method Two Random Forest models: one for sign probabilities of excess return, the other for optimized volatility.
result Substantial improvements in utility, risk-adjusted returns, and maximum drawdowns over buy-and-hold.
No-regret optimization for time-varying functions using uncertainty injection.
problem Optimizing time-varying functions with no-regret in bandit feedback.
method W-SparQ-GP-UCB, incorporating uncertainty injection and additional queries.
result Achieves no-regret with a vanishing number of additional queries per iteration.
The paper tackles non-stationary MAB with periodic rewards.
problem Non-stationary mean rewards over time in a business context.
method Combines Fourier analysis with confidence-bound learning to estimate periods and minimize regret.
result Proposes a near-optimal policy with a regret bound of .
Modeling decision-making dynamics in MDD patients using RL-HMM.
problem Characterize reward learning strategies in MDD patients.
method Proposed RL-HMM framework to analyze reward-based decision-making.
result MDD patients show reduced engagement in RL compared to healthy controls.
A new adversarial attack method using structured search and contextual bandits.
problem Black-box adversarial attacks on deep learning models.
method Structured search space and Bayesian optimization for contextual bandits.
result Achieves state-of-the-art success rates and query efficiencies.
The paper tackles pure exploration in multi-armed bandits with low rank structure using oblivious sampling.
problem Pure exploration in multi-armed bandits with low rank reward sequences.
method The approach involves separating the exploration strategy from feedback, using oblivious sampling, and incorporating kernel information of reward vectors.
result Efficient algorithms with regret bound for both time-varying and fixed cases, with a lower bound gap of .
Restless bandit problems assume time-varying reward distributions of the arms, which adds flexibility to the model but makes the analysis more challenging. We study learning algorithms over the unknown reward distributions and prove a sub-linear, , regret bound for a variant of Thompson sampling. Our…
A novel algorithm minimizes regret in a multi-agent bandit problem with time-varying random graphs and heterogeneous rewards.
problem Minimizing regret in a multi-agent multi-armed bandit problem with time-varying random graphs and heterogeneous rewards.
method Introduces a novel algorithmic framework combining averaging-based consensus with a weighting technique and upper confidence bound.
result Derives optimal instance-dependent regret upper bounds of order in both sub-gaussian and sub-exponential environments.
We consider the sequential Bayesian optimization problem with bandit feedback, adopting a formulation that allows for the reward function to vary with time. We model the reward function using a Gaussian process whose evolution obeys a simple Markov model. We introduce two natural extensions of the classical Gaussian pr…
Improved GP bandit algorithms for noiseless, varying noise, and RKHS norms.
problem Minimizing regret in Gaussian process bandits with unknown reward functions.
method New upper bound on maximum posterior variance, refined MVR and PE algorithms.
result Optimal regret bounds for noiseless, varying noise, and RKHS norms.
New RL algorithm tackles non-stationary environments with flexible policy updates.
problem Non-stationary reinforcement learning with time-varying rewards and transition probabilities.
method Model-free policy-based algorithm NS-NAC with restart-based exploration and dynamic learning rates.
result Dynamic regret of for both algorithms.
Beyond the Traditional VIX: A Novel Approach to Identifying Uncertainty Shocks in Financial Marketsecon.EM
New method identifies uncertainty shocks in financial markets using revised VIX.
problem Traditional VIX fails to capture non-Gaussian, heavy-tailed asset returns.
method Fit a double-subordinated Normal Inverse Gaussian Levy process to S&P 500 option prices to construct a revised VIX.
result Revised VIX provides a more comprehensive measure of volatility reflecting extreme movements and heavy tails.
In the NeurIPS 2018 Artificial Intelligence for Prosthetics challenge, participants were tasked with building a controller for a musculoskeletal model with a goal of matching a given time-varying velocity vector. Top participants were invited to describe their algorithms. In this work, we describe the challenge and pre…
New RL approach learns dynamic VCG mechanisms in unknown MDP environments.
problem Learning dynamic VCG mechanisms in unknown MDP environments.
method Reward-free online RL for exploration, combined with function approximation.
result Regret bound of for dynamic VCG mechanism learning.
Unified formulation bridges adversarial and nonstationary bandits.
problem Handling time-varying reward distributions in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Unified oracle that switches between adversarial and nonstationary bandit oracles based on window size.
result Optimal regret achieved with matching lower bound.
Study shows how repetition affects learning in bandit settings, providing algorithms with sublinear regret.
problem Effect of persistence of engagement on learning in stochastic multi-armed bandit settings.
method Novel algorithms that achieve sublinear regret under temporal constraints.
result Additive effect of priming on regret upper bound, matching popular algorithms in absence of priming.
Extends tracking guarantees for time-varying variational inequalities.
problem Tracking solutions of time-varying variational inequalities.
method Extends existing results to sublinear solution paths and periodic problems.
result Discrete dynamical systems of periodic time-varying VI can exhibit chaotic behavior or converge to the solution.
New method tracks time-varying parameters in data.
problem Tracking unknown time-varying parameters in data.
method Stochastic gradient descent-based recursive scheme with log-likelihood as gain function.
result Convergence in mean-square error in a suitable neighborhood of the unknown parameter.
Study cooperative bandit learning with imperfect communication, achieving near-optimal performance.
problem Real-world distributed decision-making with imperfect communication.
method Proposed decentralized algorithms for three communication scenarios: stochastic networks, random delays, and adversarially corrupted rewards.
result Achieved competitive performance and near-optimal guarantees on group regret.
Kiefer Wolfowitz Algorithm is Asymptotically Optimal for a Class of Non-Stationary Bandit Problemsstat.ML
We consider the problem of designing an allocation rule or an "online learning algorithm" for a class of bandit problems in which the set of control actions available at each time is a convex, compact subset of . Upon choosing an action at time , the algorithm obtains a noisy value of the unkno…
Develops a method to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia.
problem Predicting stock returns with time-varying risk premia while maintaining no-arbitrage restrictions.
method Penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings, incorporating penalization in the first pass and grouping in the second pass.
result The proposed method reduces prediction errors compared to other approaches.
Time-varying neural network improves stock return prediction.
problem Predicting stock returns in a time-varying market.
method Online early stopping algorithm for neural network training.
result The proposed algorithm outperforms current methods in predicting monthly U.S. stock returns.
Modelling Returns and Volatilities During Financial Crises: a Time Varying Coefficient Approachq-fin.GN
We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two decades in the mean and volatility dynamics, including the underlying volatility pe…
New tool for summarizing time-varying data shapes.
problem Understanding dynamic data shapes.
method Introducing crocker stacks for time-varying metric spaces.
result Demonstrated utility in parameter identification task.
Estimates time-varying network connections using multi-stage smoothing.
problem Estimating edge probabilities of time-varying networks.
method Multi-stage smoothing: temporal local smoothing followed by node-domain smoothing.
result Captures both smooth temporal evolution and structural patterns in connectivity.
Bayesian algorithms minimize cumulative regret in decentralized multi-agent bandits.
problem Minimizing cumulative regret in a decentralized multi-agent multi-armed bandit problem.
method Proposed decentralized Bayesian multi-armed bandit framework, including Thompson Sampling and Bayes-UCB algorithms.
result Regret scales logarithmically with constants matching those of an optimal centralized agent.
Paper tackles hyper-gradient estimation in decentralized FL over time-varying networks.
problem Excessive communication costs and inability to use robust networks.
method Introduces an optimality condition and uses Push-Sum for averaging model parameters and gradients over time-varying directed networks.
result Derives a hyper-gradient estimator that operates over time-varying directed networks and converges to the true hyper-gradient.
Estimates time-varying parameters from two OLS estimates.
problem Time-varying linear regression with hidden dynamics.
method Combines two OLS estimates for stable linear dynamics.
result Finite sample guarantee on estimation error.
New methods estimate survival functions with time-varying covariates.
problem Estimating survival functions with time-varying covariates.
method Generalized conditional inference and relative risk forests, adapted transformation forest.
result Proposed methods outperform traditional models in estimating survival functions.
The paper develops methods for time-varying constrained online convex optimization.
problem Time-varying loss and constraint functions in online convex optimization.
method Model-based augmented Lagrangian methods (MALM) for time-varying and delayed feedback.
result Sublinear regret and constraint violation for both time-varying and delayed feedback scenarios.
TVBO optimizes time-varying functions with asymptotically vanishing regret.
problem Understanding the asymptotic performance of TVBO for time-varying black-box functions.
method Provided upper and lower bounds for cumulative regret of TVBO algorithms.
result TVBO algorithms can achieve asymptotically vanishing regret under certain conditions.
New approach limits regret in non-stationary bandits.
problem Understanding worst case regret in time-varying bandits.
method Belief inertia argument to resist new evidence after changes.
result Linear worst case regret for classical and restarting algorithms.
Detecting imbalanced financial markets through time-varying optimization and nonlinear functionalsq-fin.MF
The paper analyzes equity market dynamics and optimal portfolios using time-varying optimization.
problem Analyzing the time-varying structure of equity markets, particularly market capitalization inequality and concentration.
method The study employs mathematical functionals of time-varying portfolios and a Sharpe optimization procedure.
result Optimal portfolios exhibit varying market capitalization exposure over time.
New model captures time-varying volatility with stochastic exponential tails.
problem Capturing time-varying volatility and stochastic skewness in financial markets.
method Normal Tempered Stable distribution with time-varying parameter.
result Model better explains market option prices with stochastic exponential tails.
New method learns time-varying home field advantage in football.
problem Discovering causal factors behind home field advantage in sports.
method DYNAMO: a novel causal discovery method for non-stationary processes.
result Time-varying home field advantages influenced by referee bias.
New algorithm for nonstationary GLBs reduces computation and memory costs.
problem Nonstationary generalized linear bandits with unknown time-varying parameters.
method Discounted Online Mirror Descent (DOMD) for parameter estimation.
result Dynamic regret bounds of order per round in drifting and piecewise-stationary environments.
Estimates financial market impacts of COVID-19 using time-varying kernel density.
problem Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets over time.
method Time-varying kernel density estimation with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.
result Determines the chronology and regional disparities of financial market impacts.
New TVBO algorithm optimizes time-varying functions with varying sampling frequencies.
problem Optimizing time-varying, expensive, noisy functions with constant frequency assumption.
method Formulated practical recommendations and derived upper regret bound for varying sampling frequencies.
result BOLT algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art TVBO algorithms in experiments.
Thompson Sampling improves decision-making in partially observed contexts.
problem Balancing exploration and exploitation in partially observed contextual bandits.
method Thompson Sampling policy for learning optimal arms from noisy linear functions of unobserved context vectors.
result Thompson Sampling achieves poly-logarithmic regret and square-root consistency of parameter estimation.
A pairs trading model with time-varying volatility using stochastic control.
problem Optimizing pairs trading strategies with fluctuating asset volatilities.
method Stochastic control techniques, Finite Difference method, Generalized Method of Moments.
result Optimal trading strategies maximizing expected power utility from terminal wealth.
Paper tackles dynamic graph topology identification in time-varying graphs.
problem Dynamic graph topology identification in time-varying graphs.
method Proposes an online algorithm for time-varying optimization, with intrinsic temporal regularization.
result Demonstrates performance on Gaussian graphical model problem.
This paper presents a supervised learning algorithm, namely, the Synaptic Efficacy Function with Meta-neuron based learning algorithm (SEF-M) for a spiking neural network with a time-varying weight model. For a given pattern, SEF-M uses the learning algorithm derived from meta-neuron based learning algorithm to determi…