Develops framework for estimating and improving DTRs with time-varying IV in the presence of unmeasured confounding.
problem Estimating DTRs from observational data with unmeasured confounding.
method Time-varying instrumental variable (IV) framework for estimating and improving DTRs.
result IV-optimal and IV-improved DTRs perform better than DTRs assuming no unmeasured confounding.
New methods for estimating complex causal effects in econometrics.
problem Estimating causal parameters in short panel data models using nested nonparametric instrumental variable regression.
method Introducing techniques to limit ill-posedness in nested NPIV, providing explicit mean square rates and efficient inference.
result Explicit mean square rates for nested NPIV and efficient inference for causal parameters.
Paper proposes CIV estimator for categorical instruments in small sample settings.
problem Estimation with categorical instruments in settings with few observations per category.
method CIV estimator leveraging regularization assumption for latent categorical variable.
result CIV estimator is asymptotically normal, efficient, and semiparametrically efficient under homoskedasticity.
Researchers develop methods for causal inference with imperfect instrumental variables.
problem Quantifying cause and effect relationships with imperfect instrumental variables.
method Established a quantitative relationship between violations of instrumental inequalities and minimal measurement dependence, providing adapted inequalities valid in the presence of relaxed measurement dependence.
result Adapted inequalities for average causal effect in instrumental scenarios with binary outcomes, addressing violations of instrumental inequalities.
Learning a causal effect from observational data is not straightforward, as this is not possible without further assumptions. If hidden common causes between treatment X and outcome Y cannot be blocked by other measurements, one possibility is to use an instrumental variable. In principle, it is possible under some…
Bayesian nonparametric machine learning improves instrumental variable inference.
problem Estimating causal effects with nonlinear relationships.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) for estimating functions and Dirichlet Process mixtures for error terms.
result Dramatic improvements in inference with nonlinear data, no manual tuning required.
TSCI estimates treatment effects using machine learning and data-adaptive methods for invalid instruments.
problem Estimating treatment effects with invalid instruments.
method Two-stage algorithm: first stage uses machine learning for nonlinearities, second stage selects and projects out instrument violations.
result Effective treatment effect estimation even with invalid instruments.
DFIV uses deep neural nets to learn nonlinear features in IV regression.
problem Learning causal relationships from observational data with nonlinear interactions.
method DFIV trains deep neural nets to define nonlinear features on instruments and treatments, alternating training to compose stages 1 and 2.
result DFIV outperforms state-of-the-art methods on IV benchmarks and off-policy policy evaluation.
Develops methods to identify and estimate causal effects with instrumental variables.
problem Causal inference with confounded treatment assignment and unobserved variables.
method General nonparametric causal framework, debiased machine learning, semiparametric theory.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for average treatment effect.
New method uses few instruments to estimate complex causal effects.
problem Estimating causal effects with limited instruments in high-dimensional settings.
method Sequentially selects and combines instruments to estimate the treatment effect.
result Can reliably recover the treatment effect's projection onto the instrumented subspace.
Estimates long-term effects using past experiments as instruments with many weak instruments.
problem Estimating long-term causal effects with limited short-term outcomes and many weak instruments.
method Nonparametric instrumental variable inference with many weak instruments, using past experiments as instruments.
result Automatic debiased machine learning estimators for linear functionals of the structural function and its minimum-norm projection are efficient in the many-weak-instruments regime.
New method for personalized pricing using invalid instrumental variables.
problem Personalized pricing under endogeneity with limited standard methods.
method PRINT method for continuous treatment, solving conditional moment restrictions.
result Established optimal pricing strategy under endogeneity with invalid instrumental variables.
This paper theoretically explains and validates a deep neural network approach to IV estimation.
problem Endogeneity issues in empirical applications, especially in the presence of omitted variables, measurement error, or simultaneous causality.
method A two-stage estimator using deep neural networks in a linear instrumental variables model, with a latent structural assumption on the reduced form equation.
result The second-stage estimator achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound, with a smaller estimation error and requiring weaker conditions on the smoothness of optimal instruments.
Proposes TSCI method to infer causal effects with weak or invalid instruments using machine learning.
problem Causal inference with weak or invalid instrumental variables.
method Two-stage curvature identification (TSCI) using machine learning.
result Asymptotically unbiased and Gaussian estimator for causal effects.
The paper addresses statistical estimation in MDPs with confounders using instrumental variables.
problem Statistical estimation of value functions in MDPs with unobservable confounders.
method Two-stage estimator based on instrumental variables for confounded linear MDPs.
result Established statistical properties of the two-stage estimator, including error bounds and asymptotic normality.
Paper develops a new estimator for panel data with endogenous treatments, improving causal inference.
problem Challenges in causal inference for static panel data with endogenous treatments and confounding variables.
method Develops Double Machine Learning (DML) estimator for static panel models with endogenous treatments (panel IV DML). Introduces weak-identification diagnostics.
result Panel IV DML estimator improves estimation accuracy and delivers more reliable inference under weak identification.
Valid causal inference with invalid instruments using majority or modal valid relationships.
problem Estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding and invalid instruments.
method Ensemble of instrumental variable estimators to estimate the modal prediction, achieving accurate estimates of conditional average treatment effects.
result Valid causal inference can be achieved with a majority or modal valid instrument-response relationship.
New algorithms for IV regression with streaming data, avoiding matrix inversions.
problem Instrumental variable regression with streaming data.
method Viewing IV regression as a stochastic optimization problem, developing algorithms that avoid matrix inversions and mini-batches.
result Rates of convergence of order O(logT/T) and O(1/T1−ι) for linear models. The paper identifies causal effects in latent variable models using higher-order cumulants.
problem Challenges in identifying causal effects in latent variable models with latent confounders.
method Using higher-order cumulants, the paper addresses two challenging setups: a single proxy variable and underspecified instrumental variables.
result Causal effects are identifiable with a single proxy or instrument.
GIV methodology extends instrumental variable estimation for high-dimensional data.
problem Estimating structural parameters in high-dimensional models with endogeneity and latent factors.
method Extends GIV methodology to large N and T, treats factors and loadings as unknown, and uses additional instruments for efficiency.
result Efficiency gains and negligible sampling errors in estimated instrument and factors.
A new algorithm uses IVs to learn optimal policies from observational data.
problem Learning optimal policies from unobserved variable confounded data.
method IV-aided Value Iteration (IVVI) algorithm based on conditional moment restrictions.
result First provably efficient algorithm for instrument-aided offline RL.
The paper uses graph learning to detect valid instruments in high-dimensional data for house pricing.
problem Endogeneity bias and invalid instrument validation in high-dimensional data.
method Merge variable selection algorithms and probabilistic graphs to estimate house prices and causal structure.
result Efficient data-driven instrument selection and invalid instrument purge in high-dimensional data.
Aggregation challenges causal interpretation of IV estimators.
problem Aggregation of fine-grained components into an aggregate treatment variable.
method Characterization of conditions for identifying aggregate causal effects.
result Standard IV estimators cannot identify aggregate causal effects due to ambiguous dependencies.
Bayesian method for robust causal inference using many-dimensional instrumental variables.
problem Intractable model space and uncertainty in selecting valid instrumental variables.
method Bayesian model averaging over promising instrumental variable models with weaker assumptions.
result Efficient and robust causal effect estimation in many-dimensional data.
Kernel method improves instrumental variable regression rates.
problem Nonparametric instrumental variable regression with weak instruments.
method Kernel-based two-stage least-squares method, strong L2 convergence analysis. result Minimax optimal rates for instrumental regression under standard assumptions.
New method improves IV estimation with many weak and invalid instruments.
problem Identification in linear IV models with unknown validity.
method Non-convex penalized approaches, surrogate sparsest penalty.
result Advantages over other IV estimators in selection consistency and weak IV strength conditions.
ZNet learns instrumental representations from covariates for causal inference.
problem Lack of valid instruments in observational studies.
method Representation learning approach that constructs instrumental representations from observed covariates.
result ZNet enables IV-based estimation without explicit instruments.
A new boosting method corrects endogeneity bias in instrumental variable regression.
problem Endogeneity bias in instrumental variable regression.
method Causal Gradient Boosting (boostIV) that builds on gradient boosting algorithm.
result boostIV is consistent and performs well in finite samples compared to other methods.
Simplifies IV regression for high-dimensional instruments.
problem Nonlinear instrumental variable regression with high-dimensional instruments.
method Combines kernelized IV methods with an adaptive regression algorithm.
result Faster convergence and adaptability to feature dimensionality.
New method exploits independence in instrumental variable models for better causal inference.
problem Identify causal functions in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method HSIC-X method that exploits independence between response, hidden confounders, and instruments.
result The method provides better finite sample results and is invariant to distributional shifts.
Proposes DCNAR for dynamic causal inference from neural time series.
problem Uncertainty and evolution of causal structure in real-world domains.
method Two-stage neural causal modeling integrating discovery and inference.
result Dynamic causal inferences are more stable and meaningful than alternatives.
We present a novel algorithm for non-linear instrumental variable (IV) regression, DualIV, which simplifies traditional two-stage methods via a dual formulation. Inspired by problems in stochastic programming, we show that two-stage procedures for non-linear IV regression can be reformulated as a convex-concave saddle-…
New method improves treatment effect estimation in adaptive experiments with noncompliance.
problem Estimating average treatment effect in adaptive experiments with binary instrumental variable.
method AMRIV estimator that balances outcome noise and compliance variability.
result AMRIV achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and is robust to noncompliance.
New algorithm protects privacy in IVaR regression while maintaining accuracy.
problem Privacy leakage in classical IVaR methods.
method Noisy two-stage gradient descent with differential privacy guarantees.
result Achieves statistical efficiency and privacy in IVaR regression.
The paper shows how instrumental variables can help identify sparse causal effects in linear models.
problem Identifying sparse causal effects in linear models with limited instruments.
method Conditions and graphical criteria for identifiability, spaceIV estimator.
result Causal effects can be identified from observed distributions with sparse effects and limited instruments.
Instrumental variable (IV) regression is a strategy for learning causal relationships in observational data. If measurements of input X and output Y are confounded, the causal relationship can nonetheless be identified if an instrumental variable Z is available that influences X directly, but is conditionally independe…
The paper proposes a new model for predicting and analyzing economic variables.
problem Predicting and analyzing economic variables in developed regions.
method Time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework combined with machine learning models.
result The proposed model provides high precision out-of-sample predictions and novel insights into economic variable connectedness.
Estimates linear model from noisy covariates and instruments using spectral regularization.
problem Estimating a linear model from many noisy covariates and instruments.
method Two-stage least squares with spectral regularization of canonical correlations.
result Upper and lower bounds on estimation error, proving optimality of the method with noisy data.
Proposes a method to estimate causal effects of continuous treatments using instrumental variables.
problem Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments in the presence of unmeasured confounders.
method Introduces a novel framework using instrumental variables and a uniform regular weighting function to identify and estimate average dose-response functions.
result Establishes the asymptotic properties of the proposed methods for estimating average dose-response functions.
Proposes a new estimator for weak instrumental variables in panel data models.
problem Weak instrumental variables due to ignored nonlinearities in panel data.
method Triangular simultaneous equation model with a nonlinear reduced form equation and a control function approach using Super Learner.
result The proposed SLCF estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, achieving a parametric rate of convergence.
A new method learns outcome-aware spectral features for causal effect estimation.
problem Estimation of causal effects in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Augmented Spectral Feature Learning framework that minimizes a contrastive loss derived from an augmented operator incorporating outcome information.
result Our method remains effective even under spectral misalignment.
AI uses language models to find instrumental variables quickly.
problem Finding valid instrumental variables is a challenging and heuristic process.
method Uses large language models to search for new instrumental variables through narratives and counterfactual reasoning.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of multi-step and role-playing prompting strategies for LLMs.
Temporal Causal Prior-Data Fitted Networks (TCPFN) for industrial time series causal discovery
problem Estimating causal effects in industrial time series
method Temporal Causal Prior-Data Fitted Networks
result Zero-shot causal discovery with explicit reliability signals
Perturbation theory improves nonparametric instrumental variable estimation accuracy.
problem Improving nonparametric instrumental variable estimation accuracy in high-dimensional settings.
method Perturbative approach based on physics perturbation theory, extending kernel ridge methods with higher-order corrections.
result First-order perturbative corrections reduce prediction error by up to 99% in high-dimensional ill-defined cases.
New method for causal inference with observed covariates improves learning rates.
problem Causal inference with observed covariates in nonparametric instrumental variable regression.
method Introduces novel Fourier measure for partial smoothing and adapts kernel lengthscales for anisotropic smoothness.
result Upper and lower learning rates for KIV-O show interpolation between NPIV and NPR rates.
DML-IV improves IV regression for learning decision policies by reducing bias.
problem Spurious correlations in offline datasets caused by hidden confounders.
method Double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework to reduce bias in two-stage IV regression.
result DML-IV outperforms state-of-the-art methods and learns high-performing policies.
Method selects valid IVs from a large set using clustering and test of overidentifying restrictions.
problem Selecting valid instrumental variables from a large set of candidates.
method Agglomerative hierarchical clustering combined with a test of overidentifying restrictions.
result Achieves oracle properties when the largest group of IVs is valid.
Develops methods for causal inference in compositional data using instrumental variables.
problem Interpreting summary statistics like diversity indices as causal effects in compositional data.
method Statistical data transformations and regression techniques tailored for compositional data.
result Advantages and limitations of the proposed methods demonstrated on synthetic and real microbiome data.