This paper studies concept drift detectors for financial time series.
problem Improving accuracy on financial time series with concept drifts.
method Three simple concept drift detectors tailored to financial time series.
result Two of the detectors are as effective as state-of-the-art detectors.
Proceed adapts models proactively against concept drift in online time series forecasting.
problem Concept drift causes forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts, reducing performance.
method Proceed estimates and translates concept drift into parameter adjustments, enhancing model resilience.
result Proceed brings more performance improvements than state-of-the-art online learning methods.
Unified framework for generating synthetic financial time series that accurately capture both marginal distributions and temporal dynamics.
problem Generating synthetic financial time series that reproduce both marginal distributions and temporal dynamics.
method SBBTS: A unified Schrödinger-Bass framework for synthetic financial time series.
result SBBTS accurately recovers stochastic volatility and correlation parameters that prior methods fail to capture.
Estimates time-series drifts from i.i.d. data using a direct Nadaraya-Watson plug-in method.
problem Nonparametric estimation of Schrödinger bridge drifts from single time interval data.
method Direct Nadaraya-Watson plug-in estimator based on kernelized numerator and denominator terms.
result Uniform non-asymptotic bound, CLT under undersmoothing, and adaptive bandwidth selector.
A method to improve time series forecasting by dynamically adjusting weights of forecasters.
problem Challenges in time series forecasting due to evolving data distributions.
method Dynamic re-weighting of forecasters based on evolving data distributions.
result Competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods for combining forecasters.
A new fuzzy time series method for non-stationary data.
problem Forecasting in non-stationary environments with concept drift.
method Non-Stationary Fuzzy Time Series (NSFTS) with time-varying parameters.
result The method can adapt to dynamic changes in the stochastic process.
This article revisits an analysis on inaccuracies of time series averaging under dynamic time warping conducted by \cite{Niennattrakul2007}. The authors presented a correctness-criterion and introduced drift-outs of averages from clusters. They claimed that averages are inaccurate if they are incorrect or drift-outs. F…
Online learning rbfnet improves multi-horizon returns forecasts for financial time series.
problem Nonstationarity and concept drift in financial time series.
method Combines feature representation transfer with sequential optimisation.
result Online learning rbfnet outperforms random-walk and batch learners.
Improved Adam for time series forecasting with distributional drift.
problem Non-stationary data challenges Adam's effectiveness.
method Proposed TS_Adam, removing Adam's second-order bias correction.
result TS_Adam achieves 12.8% reduction in MSE and 5.7% in MAE on ETT datasets.
Paper separates financial time series into fast and slow components.
problem Multiscale behavior in financial time series data.
method Uses variance and tail stationarity criteria as generalized eigenvalue problems.
result Identifies slow and fast components in asset returns and prices.
Learning from data streams is an increasingly important topic in data mining, machine learning, and artificial intelligence in general. A major focus in the data stream literature is on designing methods that can deal with concept drift, a challenge where the generating distribution changes over time. A general assumpt…
Paper benchmarks machine learning for detecting process curve drifts.
problem Detecting drifts in multivariate manufacturing process data.
method Synthetic data generation and evaluation score introduction.
result Existing algorithms often fail with complex drift scenarios.
A nonparametric method for time series analysis extracts envelopes, detects peaks, and clusters data.
problem Extracting envelopes, detecting peaks, and clustering in time series data.
method Iterative procedure that minimizes L1 drift to create upper and lower bounding signals, using Viterbi-like path tracking and optimal elimination rules. result Efficiently calculated solution with near-linear time complexities for various applications.
The maximum likelihood approach is adapted to the problem of estimation of drift and diffusion functions of stochastic processes from measured time series. We reconcile a previously devised iterative procedure [Kleinhans et al., Physics Letters A (346), 2005] and put the application of the method on a firm theoretical …
Generative model for time series using Schrödinger bridge.
problem Creating synthetic time series data with temporal dynamics.
method Schrödinger bridge approach for entropic interpolation via optimal transport.
result The method generates synthetic time series that respect temporal dynamics.
Online anomaly detection of time-series data is an important and challenging task in machine learning. Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful and flexible models for modeling time-series data. However, the high time complexity of GPs limits their applications in online anomaly detection. Attributed to some internal or e…
GANF uses normalizing flows to detect anomalies in multiple time series.
problem Detecting anomalies in multiple time series with interdependencies.
method Bayesian network integration with normalizing flows for unsupervised anomaly detection.
result GANF effectively detects anomalies and identifies distribution drift in time series data.
A TTA framework improves forecasting accuracy in non-stationary time series.
problem Improving forecasting accuracy in non-stationary time series.
method Normalization-based test-time adaptation for causal timeseries forecasting and direction classification.
result Normalization-based TTA improves forecasting error in synthetic gradual drift and can even hurt in aggressive norm-only adaptation in financial markets.
K-ARMA models cluster time series data robustly.
problem Clustering time series data effectively.
method Model-based K-ARMA clustering algorithm with robust outlier detection.
result K-ARMA models outperform existing methods for time series clustering.
The paper tackles drift identification in Lévy α-stable stochastic systems, proposing a Fourier space approach.
problem Estimating the drift field of a stochastic differential equation driven by Lévy α-stable noise.
method Fourier space approach, parameterizing the drift field using Fourier series, minimizing a loss function with gradients computed via the adjoint method.
result The method is capable of learning drift fields in qualitative and/or quantitative agreement with ground truth fields.
Novel algorithm SAODE improves high-dimensional stream classification in seasonal data.
problem Handling seasonal concept drift in high-dimensional stream classification.
method SAODE classifier that includes time as a super parent to handle seasonal drift.
result SAODE consistently outperforms other methods in stream and concept drift classification.
DRIFT uses neural flows to replace distributional regression models.
problem Lack of neural network representations for distributional regression models.
method Inverse flow transformations (DRIFT) for distributional regression.
result Neural representations in DRIFT match classical statistical methods in performance.
Online learning improves traffic congestion prediction over time.
problem Model degradation due to concept drift in traffic data.
method Incremental learning from non-stationary time series data.
result Performance of models degrades with increased prediction horizon.
The study improves Monte Carlo simulations for long-term investments using advanced financial models.
problem Improving the accuracy of long-term investment simulations.
method Developed a multivariate process incorporating recent financial models and probabilistic forecasts.
result Increased accuracy in predicting portfolio values over decades.
Adaptive financial dataflow system improves model robustness in dynamic markets.
problem Static historical data leads to poor performance in dynamic financial markets.
method Drift-aware dataflow system with adaptive control and optimization.
result Enhanced model robustness and improved risk-adjusted returns.
ProteuS generates synthetic financial data with regime changes for testing drift detection.
problem Simulating concept drift in financial markets for model evaluation.
method ARMA-GARCH models fitted to ETF data, generating synthetic time series with predefined regime changes.
result Generated datasets reveal the complexity of detecting and adapting to market regime changes.
TFM trains Neural SDEs without backpropagation, improving clinical time series modeling.
problem Modeling irregularly sampled time series in medicine.
method Trajectory Flow Matching (TFM) using flow matching for generative modeling.
result TFM improves performance on clinical time series datasets.
New time series generation models improve accuracy and correlation identification.
problem Generating accurate and correlated time series from limited data.
method Conditional Euler Generator (CEGEN) using Euler discretization of SDEs and Wasserstein metrics.
result CEGEN outperforms state-of-the-art models on various metrics and real-world datasets.
Estimates change point in high dimensional time series models.
problem Change point estimation in high dimensional time series.
method Plug-in least squares estimator with sufficient conditions for adaptivity.
result Optimal rate of convergence Op(ξ−2) in integer scale. We solve continuous-time latent SDE identifiability using diffusion shifts.
problem Identifiability of latent SDEs in continuous-time time series.
method Environment-induced shifts in diffusion covariance for additive-noise latent SDEs.
result Two diagonal diffusion regimes with distinct variance ratios identify latent coordinates up to permutation and scaling.
Neural networks model financial data with Lévy processes.
problem Forecasting chaotic financial time series with big jumps.
method Lévy-induced stochastic differential equation network approximated by neural networks.
result The method improves prediction accuracy using non-Gaussian Lévy processes.
Generative model for time series using Schrödinger bridges with jumps.
problem Creating realistic synthetic time series from observed data.
method Entropic optimal transport, Schrödinger bridge framework, jump-diffusion process.
result Jump-diffusion Schrödinger bridge model generates more realistic time series.
Paper proposes SCott optimizer to reduce forecasting model training variance.
problem Large variance in gradient estimation for forecasting models.
method Stratified sampling and control variate to reduce gradient variance.
result SCott optimizer converges faster on time series forecasting problems.
MPANF improves naive forecast by incorporating directional information.
problem Challenging to surpass naive forecast in financial time series.
method Combines naive forecast with movement prediction and accuracy.
result MPANF generally outperforms common benchmarks.
LLapDiff models irregular multivariate time series without step-by-step integration.
problem Trade-off between discrete and continuous methods for long-horizon forecasting.
method Generative framework that models target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, guided by modal parameterization and Laplace domain poles.
result Improves long-horizon forecasting over baselines and supports missing-value imputation.
New method generates synthetic time series paths with more flexibility.
problem Restrictions in generating synthetic paths using Brownian reference.
method Introduces Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges (TR-SBTS) for time series generation.
result Generates synthetic paths with more flexibility in stochastic volatility and correlated noise.
TFPS improves time series forecasting by learning pattern-specific experts.
problem Challenges in forecasting time series data with varying patterns across segments.
method Dual-domain encoder, subspace clustering, pattern-specific experts.
result Significantly improved forecasting accuracy, especially in long-term forecasting.
Improved financial market calibration reveals large excess volatility.
problem Large excess volatility in financial markets.
method Extended Chiarella model to handle long-term value drifts, calibrated on multiple asset classes.
result Large excess volatility (factor ≈ 4 for stock indices) and bimodal mispricing distribution.
Paper improves online time series forecasting by combining natural gradient and robust t-distribution.
problem Online time series forecasting challenges in rapidly adapting to evolving data.
method Reframed neural network optimization as a parameter filtering problem, using natural gradient and Student's t likelihood.
result Natural Score-driven Replay (NatSR) achieves stronger forecasting performance than state-of-the-art methods.
The application of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) to the analysis of temporal data has attracted increasing attention, due to their ability to describe complex dynamics with physically interpretable equations. In this paper, we introduce a non-parametric method for estimating the drift and diffusion terms of …
This review covers learning under concept drift, including detection, understanding, and adaptation.
problem Unforeseeable changes in data distribution over time impact machine learning performance.
method Reviews and analyzes methodologies and techniques for concept drift detection, understanding, and adaptation.
result Establishes a framework for learning under concept drift with three main components.
The evolution of the probability distributions of Japan and US major market indices, NIKKEI 225 and NASDAQ composite index, and JPY/DEM and DEM/USD currency exchange rates is described by means of the Fokker-Planck equation (FPE). In order to distinguish and quantify the deterministic and random influences on these…
Unified approach to trend-following systems, deriving exact relationships and expected returns.
problem Designing and understanding trend-following systems in financial markets.
method Derive exact relationships, analyze expected returns, and use fractional ARFIMA processes.
result Profitability of trend-following systems depends on positive long-term autocorrelation and excess spectral mass at low frequencies.
Identifies features most relevant to concept drift in data.
problem Identifying features most relevant to concept drift.
method Distinguishing between drift inducing and faithfully drifting features; deriving minimal subsets of features to characterize drift.
result Derives a detection algorithm for concept drift.
Paper extracts features from time series to improve forecasting accuracy.
problem Forecasting time series generated by Itô-type processes with unknown coefficients.
method Statistical adjustment of mixture-type models to extract features from time series data.
result Additional statistical features enhance time series prediction accuracy.
New method detects when models influence their own drift in real-time data streams.
problem Models can induce concept drift in real-time data streams.
method CheckerBoard Performative Drift Detection (CB-PDD)
result CB-PDD effectively detects performative drift in real-time data streams.
We present a time-dependent Langevin description of dynamics of stock prices. Based on a simple sliding-window algorithm, the fluctuation of stock prices is discussed in the view of a time-dependent linear restoring force which is the linear approximation of the drift parameter in Langevin equation estimated from the f…
This research identifies flaws in drift detection methods and creates adversarial data streams to exploit them.
problem The challenge of detecting data distribution changes (drift) in real-time systems.
method Developed adversarial data streams to show weaknesses in existing drift detection schemes.
result Demonstrated that common drift detection methods can be fooled by adversarial data streams.