Develops a new method to discover causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships from observational data, especially for nonstationary time series.
method State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for conditionally stationary time series.
result SDCI can recover underlying causal dependencies with provable identifiability for state-dependent causal structures.
Amortized Causal Discovery learns to infer causal graphs from time-series data, improving performance.
problem Inference of causal graphs from time-series data is inefficient due to fitting new models for each sample.
method Proposes Amortized Causal Discovery, a variational model that leverages shared dynamics across samples with different causal graphs.
result Significant improvements in causal discovery performance demonstrated experimentally.
Paper presents a new dataset for testing causal discovery methods in industrial systems.
problem Lack of real-world datasets for evaluating causal discovery methods on time series data.
method Develops a dataset from an industrial system and its known causal graph.
result Provides a benchmark for evaluating causal discovery methods in complex systems.
Improved time series causal discovery with bootstrap aggregation and confidence measures.
problem Uncertainty estimation in time series causal discovery.
method Bootstrap aggregation and confidence measures for time series causal discovery.
result Bagged-PCMCI+ improves precision and recall compared to PCMCI+.
TimeGraph creates synthetic datasets for robust time-series causal discovery.
problem Lack of reliable synthetic benchmark datasets for robust time-series causal discovery.
method Developed comprehensive synthetic datasets with temporal properties, including trends, seasonality, and noise.
result Demonstrated significant variations in algorithm performance under realistic temporal conditions.
Framework isolates causal effects from time series data, improving accuracy under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.
problem Causal inference in non-stationary, autocorrelated time series data.
method Decomposes time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components; performs component-specific causal analysis.
result Framework more accurately recovers ground-truth causal structure than state-of-the-art baselines, especially under strong non-stationarity and temporal autocorrelation.
New method uses path signatures for causal discovery in time series data.
problem Challenges in understanding causal structure from observational time series data.
method Path signatures and signed areas for model-free causal discovery.
result Confidence sequence regions help identify lag/lead causal relationships.
Unified kernel-based methods improve nonlinear causal discovery.
problem Identifying nonlinear causal relationships between time series variables.
method Unified Kernel Principal Component Regression (KPCR) and Gaussian Process score-based model with Smooth Information Criterion.
result Improved performance in time series nonlinear causal discovery.
Proposes a new framework to evaluate causal discovery methods for time series data.
problem Lack of ground truth for causal discovery in time series data.
method Flexible framework for generating synthetic time series data.
result Demonstrates degradation in performance when assumptions are violated.
CausalRivers benchmarks causal discovery methods on real-world river discharge data.
problem Lack of in-the-wild evaluation of causal discovery methods on complex, real-world data.
method Introduces CausalRivers, a large-scale dataset of river discharge data for benchmarking.
result Demonstrates the utility of CausalRivers in evaluating causal discovery methods.
New method identifies nonstationary causal structures in time series data.
problem Identifying causal relationships in time series data that change over time.
method High-order Markov Switching Models for regime-dependent causal discovery.
result Scalable approach for estimating high-order regime-dependent causal structures.
Paper proposes methods to discover causal models with unobserved variables.
problem Discovering causal relationships in data with unobserved variables.
method Two methods leveraging prior knowledge for causal discovery in CAM-UV models.
result Accuracy of causal discovery improves with more prior knowledge.
Proposes DCNAR for dynamic causal inference from neural time series.
problem Uncertainty and evolution of causal structure in real-world domains.
method Two-stage neural causal modeling integrating discovery and inference.
result Dynamic causal inferences are more stable and meaningful than alternatives.
Robust CD method for real-world time series with power-law distributions.
problem Challenges in causal discovery due to noise sensitivity.
method Power-law spectral feature extraction for robust CD.
result Consistently outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives on real-world datasets.
Detects change points in time series focusing on specific components.
problem Identifying moments when specific components of multivariate time series change distributions.
method Two-stage non-parametric algorithm: causal structure learning followed by change point detection.
result Validated the approach on synthetic and real-world datasets.
The study learns causal graphs from time series data using entropy measures.
problem Learning causal graphs from time series data.
method Constraint-based framework, information-theoretic measures, generalized causation entropy, PC and FCI algorithms.
result The methods effectively construct causal graphs from time series data.
New method improves causal discovery in time series with latent confounders.
problem Low recall in causal discovery for autocorrelated time series with latent confounders.
method Iterative procedure that includes causal parents in conditioning sets, using novel orientation rules.
result Significantly higher recall compared to existing methods, especially in strong autocorrelation cases.
This paper reviews causal inference methods for time series data.
problem Estimating treatment effects and identifying causal relations from time series data.
method Comprehensive review of approaches for treatment effect estimation and causal discovery.
result Provides a list of evaluation metrics and datasets for time series causal inference.
New method for identifying causal relationships in financial time series data.
problem Identifying causal relationships in nonstationary financial time series data.
method Refined constraint-based causal discovery algorithm (CD-NOTS) for nonstationary time series data.
result CD-NOTS effectively identifies causal connections in financial applications.
New method discovers causal models from mixed time series data.
problem Discovering causal relationships from heterogeneous time series data.
method Variational inference-based framework MCD for linear and nonlinear causal models.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks in causal discovery tasks.
Causal relationships in time series with latent variables are discovered using LPCMCI.
problem Discovering causal relationships in complex, time-series data with hidden variables.
method Evaluated LPCMCI algorithm for finding generators compatible with multi-dimensional, autocorrelated time series with latent variables.
result LPCMCI performs better than random guessing but is not optimal.
New method discovers causal relationships in complex time series data.
problem Discovering causal relationships in multivariate time series is challenging.
method Temporal Dependency to Causality (TD2C) framework using mutual information.
result TD2C achieves state-of-the-art performance in causal discovery.
New algorithm uncovers causal relations in non-stationary time series.
problem Discovering causal relations from non-stationary time series data.
method Constraint-based, non-parametric algorithm for semi-stationary time series.
result Algorithm PCMCIΩ identifies causal graph with CI tests. Reinterprets Granger causality with causal Bayesian networks and Reichenbach's principles.
problem Lack of a rigorous causal foundation in Granger causality.
method Reinterpreting Granger causality through Reichenbach's principles and causal Bayesian networks, implementing as c-GC.
result c-GC provides a more principled framework for causal discovery in observational datasets.
CAnDOIT discovers causal relationships using both observational and interventional time-series data.
problem Identifying causal relationships in the presence of hidden factors.
method CAnDOIT combines observational and interventional time-series data to reconstruct causal models.
result CAnDOIT effectively handles interventional data and enhances the accuracy of causal analysis.
CausalTime generates realistic time-series for TSCD evaluation.
problem Lack of realistic synthetic datasets for TSCD performance evaluation.
method Harnessing deep neural networks and normalizing flow for dynamics, extracting causal graphs, and deriving ground truth causal graphs.
result Generated datasets accurately reflect real data and ground truth causal graphs.
Framework detects anomalies in industrial processes using deep learning.
problem Detect anomalies in complex industrial processes.
method Causal-based framework with unsupervised deep learning.
result Successfully validated abstract contexts of blast furnace assets.
Rhino learns causal relationships from time series data with history-dependent noise.
problem Discovering causal relationships from time series data with non-linear relations, instantaneous effects, and history-dependent noise.
method Combines vector auto-regression, deep learning, and variational inference.
result Demonstrates better causal relationship discovery performance compared to baselines.
Investment strategy developed using causal discovery algorithms in equity markets.
problem Lack of actionable causal relationships in large equity markets.
method Causal discovery algorithms applied to equity market data.
result Causal discovery algorithms can uncover actionable causal relationships in equity markets, leading to profitable investment outcomes.
Novel method discovers causal relations in time series data, even with autocorrelation.
problem Discovering causal relations in time series data with strong autocorrelation.
method Conditional independence (CI) based PCMCI+ method, optimized for contemporaneous and lagged links. result PCMCI+ outperforms other methods in detecting causal links and controlling false positives. Algorithm learns causal structures from time-series data, reducing tests for temporal vs. contemporaneous relations.
problem Learning causal structures from time-series data with latent confounders.
method Constraint-based algorithm that refines a causal graph by learning temporal relations first, then contemporaneous ones.
result Reduces the number of statistical tests and improves accuracy for synthetic and real-world data.
New method reveals true causal functions in nonlinear time series, not just scores.
problem Causal discovery in nonlinear time series often uses scalar edge scores, which hide true function-valued causal influence.
method Formalized function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures. Introduced a practical framework based on ICE for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models.
result Edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors.
Paper proposes forecast-necessity testing for accurate causal interpretation in nonlinear time-series models.
problem Misinterpretation of causal scores from nonlinear models as regression coefficients.
method Systematic edge ablation and forecast comparison to evaluate causal necessity.
result Causal relationships with similar scores can differ in their necessity for accurate prediction.
Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a parsimonious causality structure is assumed, a promising approach to causal discov…
CMC method detects causal relationships in time series data.
problem Understanding causal relationships in nonlinear systems.
method Cross-Mapping Coherence method, based on nonlinear state-space reconstruction and coherence metrics.
result CMC accurately identifies causal connections in various systems.
CausalCompass evaluates TSCD robustness under violations of modeling assumptions.
problem Widespread adoption of TSCD is hindered by untestable causal assumptions and lack of robustness evaluation.
method CausalCompass is a flexible benchmark framework for assessing TSCD robustness under violations of modeling assumptions.
result No single method consistently attains optimal performance across all settings, but deep learning-based methods perform well.
Transformer-based method for causal discovery with prior knowledge integration.
problem Complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations in time series data.
method Multi-layer Transformer forecaster with gradient-based causal structure extraction and attention masking for prior knowledge integration.
result Significant improvement in causal discovery and causal lag estimation compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Novel graphical models for time series with latent confounders improve causal inference.
problem Causal relationships and independencies in multivariate time series with unobserved confounders.
method Introduced a novel class of graphical models and characterized their properties.
result Novel graphs provide stronger causal inferences without additional assumptions.
Extended LPCMCI learns causal models from interventional data to minimize prediction error.
problem Optimizing prediction of target variables using causal models.
method Combining observational and interventional causal discovery methods.
result Extended LPCMCI allows 60.9% optimal prediction of target variables compared to 53.6% with original LPCMCI.
GC-KAN uses KANs to detect Granger causality in time series data.
problem Detecting causal relationships in nonlinear time series data.
method Developed GC-KAN framework using Kolmogorov-Arnold networks for Granger causality detection.
result KANs outperform MLPs in identifying sparse Granger causal relationships.
Temporal Causal Prior-Data Fitted Networks (TCPFN) for industrial time series causal discovery
problem Estimating causal effects in industrial time series
method Temporal Causal Prior-Data Fitted Networks
result Zero-shot causal discovery with explicit reliability signals
LOCAL learns dynamic causal structures from time series data efficiently.
problem Challenges in discovering DAG from time series data due to dynamic nature and nonlinear interactions.
method LOCAL proposes a quasi-maximum likelihood-based score function and adaptive modules ACML and DGPL.
result LOCAL significantly outperforms existing methods in dynamic causal discovery.
Proposes ENVAR for causal discovery in structural VAR models with equal noise variance.
problem Challenges in causal discovery from multivariate time series with contemporaneous effects.
method Introduces observational equivalence and the observational alignment discrepancy for structural VAR models with equal noise variance.
result Shows that multiple structural VAR parameterizations can induce the same stationary observed process law.
In many scientific fields, such as economics and neuroscience, we are often faced with nonstationary time series, and concerned with both finding causal relations and forecasting the values of variables of interest, both of which are particularly challenging in such nonstationary environments. In this paper, we study c…
TSCI improves causal inference in dynamical systems using vector fields.
problem Challenges in causal discovery with time series data in dynamical systems.
method TSCI method using vector fields to check for synchronization between learned dynamics.
result TSCI outperforms traditional methods like CCM and its generalizations.
Dynamic Structural Causal Models handle time-dependent systems with cycles and latent confounding.
problem Representing and analyzing systems of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) with DSCMs.
method Define time-splitting and subsampling operations to analyze DSCMs of SDEs, and apply existing causal discovery algorithms to time-series data.
result DSCMs provide a graphical Markov property for SDEs and enable identification of time-dependent causal effects.
Novel framework uses causality for financial forecasting.
problem Balancing invariance and prediction accuracy in financial time series.
method Causality-inspired models for forecasting asset returns.
result Efficacy in stable and accurate predictions, especially in turbulent markets.
Spectral Independence Criterion helps infer cause-effect relationships in time series.
problem Distinguishing cause from effect in time series data.
method Spectral Independence Criterion (SIC) based on PSD and frequency response.
result SIC provides a robust method for causal inference in time series data.