A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Boosting algorithms improve delivery time prediction in postal services.
Airlines optimize fuel loading with better flight time predictions.
Model predicts travel time under rare conditions using a vector-space model.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in hospitalized patients and can lead to serious medical complications. In order to optimally predict AKI before it develops at any time during a hospital stay, we present a novel framework in which AKI is continually predicted automatically from EHR data over the entire hospit…
Accurate and reliable travel time predictions in public transport networks are essential for delivering an attractive service that is able to compete with other modes of transport in urban areas. The traditional application of this information, where arrival and departure predictions are displayed on digital boards, is…
Dynamic linear models improve travel time prediction for congested freeways.
Develops a neural model to predict event occurrence and timing.
TIP-Search optimizes market prediction accuracy and timeliness under uncertain load.
CAG method predicts nonlinear solid mechanics responses in real-time with high accuracy and efficiency.
Treeging combines regression trees and kriging for spatial and space-time prediction.
Neural Jump ODE improves continuous-time prediction and filtering of irregularly sampled time series.
Study uses neural networks to predict travel times for public transportation.
Travel time estimation is a fundamental problem in transportation science with extensive literature. The study of these techniques has intensified due to availability of many publicly available large trip datasets. Recently developed deep learning based models have improved the generality and performance and have focus…
Generative models for complex stochastic dynamics using adversarial learning.
We model GitHub interactions as a temporal knowledge graph for software engineering questions.
Dividing local Gaussian processes improve real-time prediction efficiency.
Paper proposes GANs for generating business process suffixes and remaining times.
This paper improves federated learning for industrial predictive analytics by accommodating client heterogeneity.
The paper predicts travel times using tree-based ensembles.
Long-term prediction of multivariate time series is still an important but challenging problem. The key to solve this problem is to capture the spatial correlations at the same time, the spatio-temporal relationships at different times and the long-term dependence of the temporal relationships between different series.…
This paper addresses the problem of predicting duration of unplanned power outages, using historical outage records to train a series of neural network predictors. The initial duration prediction is made based on environmental factors, and it is updated based on incoming field reports using natural language processing …
This paper evaluates various bus arrival time prediction models.
GAttNHP predicts future events in temporal knowledge graphs by encoding long-range dependencies and handling mutual excitation.
Bayesian framework predicts post-disruption travel times in metro networks.
One of the most compelling features of Gaussian process (GP) regression is its ability to provide well-calibrated posterior distributions. Recent advances in inducing point methods have sped up GP marginal likelihood and posterior mean computations, leaving posterior covariance estimation and sampling as the remaining …
We investigate conditions under which test statistics exist that can reliably detect examples, which have been adversarially manipulated in a white-box attack. These statistics can be easily computed and calibrated by randomly corrupting inputs. They exploit certain anomalies that adversarial attacks introduce, in part…
In this note we consider setups in which variational objectives for Bayesian neural networks can be computed in closed form. In particular we focus on single-layer networks in which the activation function is piecewise polynomial (e.g. ReLU). In this case we show that for a Normal likelihood and structured Normal varia…
An accurate model of patient-specific kidney graft survival distributions can help to improve shared-decision making in the treatment and care of patients. In this paper, we propose a deep learning method that directly models the survival function instead of estimating the hazard function to predict survival times for …
Ethereum trends analyzed through blockchain transactions and Google searches.
Study develops a machine learning-based ramp metering model to improve freeway efficiency.
Operations is a key challenge in the domain of machine learning pipeline deployments involving monitoring and management of real-time prediction quality. Typically, metrics like accuracy, RMSE etc., are used to track the performance of models in deployment. However, these metrics cannot be calculated in production due …
We study the problem of collaborative filtering where ranking information is available. Focusing on the core of the collaborative ranking process, the user and their community, we propose new models for representation of the underlying permutations and prediction of ranks. The first approach is based on the assumption …
Two novel models predict bus travel times with uncertainty, improving connection assurance.
How can we effectively encode evolving information over dynamic graphs into low-dimensional representations? In this paper, we propose DyRep, an inductive deep representation learning framework that learns a set of functions to efficiently produce low-dimensional node embeddings that evolves over time. The learned embe…
Predicting the completion time of business process instances would be a very helpful aid when managing processes under service level agreement constraints. The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances would allow business managers to react in time, in order to prevent delays or undesirable situ…
Online Passive-Aggressive (PA) learning is a class of online margin-based algorithms suitable for a wide range of real-time prediction tasks, including classification and regression. PA algorithms are formulated in terms of deterministic point-estimation problems governed by a set of user-defined hyperparameters: the a…
Timely prediction of clinically critical events in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is important for improving care and survival rate. Most of the existing approaches are based on the application of various classification methods on explicitly extracted statistical features from vital signals. In this work, we propose to elim…
Machine Learning models are often composed of pipelines of transformations. While this design allows to efficiently execute single model components at training time, prediction serving has different requirements such as low latency, high throughput and graceful performance degradation under heavy load. Current predicti…
Asynchronous event sequences are the basis of many applications throughout different industries. In this work, we tackle the task of predicting the next event (given a history), and how this prediction changes with the passage of time. Since at some time points (e.g. predictions far into the future) we might not be abl…
In a mixed-traffic scenario where both autonomous vehicles and human-driving vehicles exist, a timely prediction of driving intentions of nearby human-driving vehicles is essential for the safe and efficient driving of an autonomous vehicle. In this paper, a driving intention prediction method based on Hidden Markov Mo…
Daytime hypoglycemia should be accurately predicted to achieve normoglycemia and to avoid disastrous situations. Hypoglycemia, an abnormally low blood glucose level, is divided into daytime hypoglycemia and nocturnal hypoglycemia. Many studies of hypoglycemia prevention deal with nocturnal hypoglycemia. In this paper, …
In industrial data analytics, one of the fundamental problems is to utilize the temporal correlation of the industrial data to make timely predictions in the production process, such as fault prediction and yield prediction. However, the traditional prediction models are fixed while the conditions of the machines chang…
The increasingly fast development cycle for online course contents, along with the diverse student demographics in each online classroom, make real-time student outcomes prediction an interesting topic for both industrial research and practical needs. In this paper, we tackle the problem of real-time student performanc…
Over the last few years, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have become ubiquitous owing to their high accuracy on real-world tasks. However, this increase in accuracy comes at the cost of computationally expensive models leading to higher prediction latencies. Prior efforts to reduce this latency such as quantization, model …
Detecting faults and SLA violations in a timely manner is critical for telecom providers, in order to avoid loss in business, revenue and reputation. At the same time predicting SLA violations for user services in telecom environments is difficult, due to time-varying user demands and infrastructure load conditions. In…
Real-time estimation of destination and travel time for taxis is of great importance for existing electronic dispatch systems. We present an approach based on trip matching and ensemble learning, in which we leverage the patterns observed in a dataset of roughly 1.7 million taxi journeys to predict the corresponding fi…
We study the use of feedforward neural networks (FNN) to develop models of nonlinear dynamical systems from data. Emphasis is placed on predictions at long times, with limited data availability. Inspired by global stability analysis, and the observation of the strong correlation between the local error and the maximum …
Neural networks predict US recessions with SHAP method.