arXiv research

CW's time change models for option pricing are flawed.

A new method samples CGMY processes efficiently by decomposing their time changes.

The paper calculates fair strike for variance swaps on time-changed Markov processes.

Motivated by the interplay between structural and reduced form credit models, we propose to model the firm value process as a time-changed Brownian motion that may include jumps and stochastic volatility effects, and to study the first passage problem for such processes. We are lead to consider modifying the standard f…

We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting. Three examples of random time-changes are provided and the implied volatility sur…

The present paper introduces a jump-diffusion extension of the classical diffusion default intensity model by means of subordination in the sense of Bochner. We start from the bi-variate process $(X,D)$ of a diffusion state variable $X$ driving default intensity and a default indicator process $D$ and time change it wi…

In this paper we propose a general derivative pricing framework which employs decoupled time-changed (DTC) Lévy processes to model the underlying asset of contingent claims. A DTC Lévy process is a generalized time-changed Lévy process whose continuous and pure jump parts are allowed to follow separate random time scal…

New GLPs split Lévy bridges into non-overlapping subprocesses.

New findings show independent subordination is not relevant for accurate option pricing.

In quantitative finance, we often model asset prices as a noisy Ito semimartingale. As this model is not identifiable, approximating by a time-changed Levy process can be useful for generative modelling. We give a new estimate of the normalised volatility or time change in this model, which obtains minimax convergence …

This paper extends subordinated models to include stochastic time changes, improving financial modeling.

Develops a new model for multi-currency volatility using CBI-time-changed Lévy processes.

This paper studies subordinate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes, i.e., OU diffusions time changed by Lévy subordinators. We construct their sample path decomposition, show that they possess mean-reverting jumps, study their equivalent measure transformations, and the spectral representation of their transition semigro…

A new model uses time-changed fractional Brownian motion to price financial options.

The paper improves energy contract pricing models by incorporating jumps and varying parameters.

The paper optimizes RV estimation by efficient sampling in time-changed diffusion models.

The paper prices weather contracts using a complex temperature model.

The paper examines how curvature-dimension conditions transform under time change for diffusions.

We introduce a new class of processes for the evaluation of multivariate equity derivatives. The proposed setting is well suited for the application of the standard copula function theory to processes, rather than variables, and easily enables to enforce the martingale pricing requirement. The martingale condition is i…

The Kelly rule fails to maximize growth in a time-changed return setting.

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function parameters are usually learned using maximum likelihood, which can lead to overfitt…

A new model reduces Wrong-Way Risk in CVA pricing.

TCNF models SDEs using time deformation of Brownian motion.

New model fits term structures with positivity constraints.

We compute the value of a variance swap when the underlying is modeled as a Markov process time changed by a Lévy subordinator. In this framework, the underlying may exhibit jumps with a state-dependent Lévy measure, local stochastic volatility and have a local stochastic default intensity. Moreover, the Lévy subordina…

We consider structural credit modeling in the important special case where the log-leverage ratio of the firm is a time-changed Brownian motion (TCBM) with the time-change taken to be an independent increasing process. Following the approach of Black and Cox, one defines the time of default to be the first passage time…

We derive asymptotic expansions for option data to detect infinite variation volatility.

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To addr…

Introduces new financial models using subordinated processes.

Paper evaluates geometric Asian power options using a mixed fractional model.

For a given Markov process $X$ and survival function $\overline{H}$ on $\mathbb{R}^+$, the inverse first-passage time problem (IFPT) is to find a barrier function $b:\mathbb{R}^+\to[-\infty,+\infty]$ such that the survival function of the first-passage time $τ_b=\inf \{t\ge0:X(t)<b(t)\}$ is given by $\overline{H}$. In …

We consider flows, called $W^{\rm u}$ flows, whose orbits are the unstable manifolds of a codimension one Anosov flow. Under some regularity assumptions, we give a short proof of the strong mixing property of $W^{\rm u}$ flows and we show that $W^{\rm u}$ flows have purely absolutely continuous spectrum in the orthocom…

We consider a controlled diffusion process $(X_t)_{t\ge 0}$ where the controller is allowed to choose the drift $μ_t$ and the volatility $σ_t$ from a set $\K(x) \subset \R\times (0,\infty)$ when $X_t=x$. By choosing the largest $\fracμ{σ^2}$ at every point in time an extremal process is constructed which is under suita…

Study new Ricci bounds for metric measure spaces, preserving properties under time changes.

The paper approximates CARMA models for option pricing.

We address the problem of parameter estimation for diffusion driven stochastic volatility models through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). To avoid degeneracy issues we introduce an innovative reparametrisation defined through transformations that operate on the time scale of the diffusion. A novel MCMC scheme which ove…

This paper proposes a new model for SPX and VIX derivatives markets.

Enlargement of filtrations is a classical topic in the general theory of stochastic processes. This theory has been applied to stochastic finance in order to analyze models with insider information. In this paper we study initial enlargement in a Markov chain market model, introduced by R. Norberg. In the enlargened fi…

Time-subordinated Brownian motion models improve financial market stochastic distribution.

Study shows subordinated Cramér-Lundberg model increases ruin probability.

A conjugate Bayesian method detects change points in Hawkes processes efficiently.

Extends Gaussian process regression for non-Gaussian data.

We consider a square-integrable semimartingale and investigate the convex order relations between its discrete, continuous and predictable quadratic variation. As the main results, we show that if the semimartingale has conditionally independent increments and symmetric jump measure, then its discrete realized variance…

The present paper aims at locating the breakings of the integration process of an international system observed during about 50 years in the 19th century. A historical study could link them to special events, which operated as exogenous shocks on this process. The indicator of integration used is the spread between the…

No-arbitrage models of term structure have the feature that the return on zero-coupon bonds is the sum of the short rate and the product of volatility and market price of risk. Well known models restrict the behavior of the market price of risk so that it is not dependent on the type of asset being modeled. We show tha…

Extended CIR process with jumps at fixed dates for modeling overnight rates.

Paper solves PDEs for optimal investment strategies in volatile markets.

This paper establishes a non-stochastic analogue of the celebrated result by Dubins and Schwarz about reduction of continuous martingales to Brownian motion via time change. We consider an idealized financial security with continuous price path, without making any stochastic assumptions. It is shown that typical price …