A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper uses econometrics time series model with T-student Distribution for short-term load forecasting.
ReGEN-TAD detects anomalies in financial time series with interpretable models.
An econometric analysis of CRIX family indices.
Foundation models improve on econometric benchmarks for forecasting volatility, but vary widely across models.
Study improves prediction of UK road accidents' severity using AI.
Bayesian model predicts mid-price dynamics in financial markets.
MARS model outperforms others in stock price prediction across sectors.
tempdisagg transforms low-frequency data into high-frequency estimates.
We extend the empirical results published in article "Empirical Evidence on Arbitrage by Changing the Stock Exchange" by means of machine learning and advanced econometric methodologies based on Smooth Transition Regression models and Artificial Neural Networks.
We study the properties of memory of a financial time series adopting two different methods of analysis, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and the analysis of the power spectrum (PSA). The methods are applied on three time series: one of high-frequency returns, one of shuffled returns and one of absolute values …
Dynamic econometric models improve trading signals in momentum strategies.
In the following paper, we analyse the ID-Price in the German Intraday Continuous electricity market using an econometric time series model. A multivariate approach is conducted for hourly and quarter-hourly products separately. We estimate the model using lasso and elastic net techniques and perform an out-of-samp…
This paper examines the time series properties of cryptocurrency assets, such as Bitcoin, using established econometric inference techniques, namely models of the GARCH family. The contribution of this study is twofold. I explore the time series properties of cryptocurrencies, a new type of financial asset on which the…
State-space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modelling time-series data. Consequently, SSMs are ubiquitously applied in areas such as engineering, econometrics and epidemiology. In this paper we provide a fast approach for approximate Bayesian inference in SSMs using the tools of deep learning and variati…
We review statistical properties of models generated by the application of a (positive and negative order) fractional derivative operator to a standard random walk and show that the resulting stochastic walks display slowly-decaying autocorrelation functions. The relation between these correlated walks and the well-kno…
In the econometrics of financial time series, it is customary to take some parametric model for the data, and then estimate the parameters from historical data. This approach suffers from several problems. Firstly, how is estimation error to be quantified, and then taken into account when making statements about the fu…
Paper introduces a new method for classifying interval-valued time series.
Surveying machine learning methods for economic forecasting.
In machine learning, statistics, econometrics and statistical physics, cross-validation (CV) is used asa standard approach in quantifying the generalisation performance of a statistical model. A directapplication of CV in time-series leads to the loss of serial correlations, a requirement of preserving anynon-stationar…
For the challenging task of modeling multivariate time series, we propose a new class of models that use dependent Matérn processes to capture the underlying structure of data, explain their interdependencies, and predict their unknown values. Although similar models have been proposed in the econometric, statistics, a…
Any discussion on exchange rate movements and forecasting should include explanatory variables from both the current account and the capital account of the balance of payments. In this paper, we include such factors to forecast the value of the Indian rupee vis a vis the US Dollar. Further, factors reflecting political…
Research combines econometric, machine learning, and deep learning models for financial forecasting.
OLS predictions are shown to be similar to attention mechanisms in models.
New method discovers accurate time series models using SMC and MCMC.
In this paper we introduce a simple continuous-time asset pricing framework, based on general multi-dimensional diffusion processes, that combines semi-analytic pricing with a nonlinear specification for the market price of risk. Our framework guarantees existence of weak solutions of the nonlinear SDEs under the physi…
Proposes adaptive method for classifying interval-valued time series.
There is a widespread need for techniques that can discover structure from time series data. Recently introduced techniques such as Automatic Bayesian Covariance Discovery (ABCD) provide a way to find structure within a single time series by searching through a space of covariance kernels that is generated using a simp…
We review the state of the art of clustering financial time series and the study of their correlations alongside other interaction networks. The aim of this review is to gather in one place the relevant material from different fields, e.g. machine learning, information geometry, econophysics, statistical physics, econo…
DeepVol uses high-frequency data to forecast volatility, outperforming traditional methods.
GAS models have been recently proposed in time-series econometrics as valuable tools for signal extraction and prediction. This paper details how financial risk managers can use GAS models for Value-at-Risk (VaR) prediction using the novel GAS package for R. Details and code snippets for prediction, comparison and back…
This paper offers a general and comprehensive definition of the day-of-the-week effect. Using symbolic dynamics, we develop a unique test based on ordinal patterns in order to detect it. This test uncovers the fact that the so-called "day-of-the-week" effect is partly an artifact of the hidden correlation structure of …
Population growth (or decay) in a country can be due to various f socio-economic constraints, as demonstrated in this paper. For example, sexual intercourse is banned in various religions, during Nativity and Lent fasting periods. Data consisting of registered daily birth records for very long (35,429 points) time seri…
Proposes Sig-Wasserstein GANs for generating time series with temporal dependence.
TQA improves prediction intervals for time series data by adjusting quantiles for both cross-sectional and longitudinal coverage.
The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices of the European Power Exchange (EPEX) which incorporates specific features like…
LSTM models struggle with volatility prediction due to financial complexities.
This paper compares traditional econometric and contemporary machine/deep learning techniques for forecasting foreign exchange rates.
Proposes an evolutionary approach to fitting acyclic VAR models.
Deep learning models outperform classical methods in forecasting company fundamentals.
The paper deals with the problem of identifying the internal dependencies and similarities among a large number of random processes. Linear models are considered to describe the relations among the time series and the energy associated to the corresponding modeling error is the criterion adopted to quantify their simil…
This study revisits Fama-French models using sample innovations to address misinterpretation of high R-squared values.
Deep learning shows ETF imbalances are more informative than market imbalances.
Quantum reservoir computing improves volatility forecasting.
We explore the evolution of daily returns of four major US stock market indices during the technology crash of 2000, and the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Our methodology is based on topological data analysis (TDA). We use persistence homology to detect and quantify topological patterns that appear in multidimensional…
Foundation AI model outperforms traditional VaR methods in forecasting.
Foundation models improve volatility forecasting in finance.
We propose a new class of models specifically tailored for spatio-temporal data analysis. To this end, we generalize the spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances, i.e. SARAR(1,1), by exploiting the recent advancements in Score Driven (SD) models typically used in time series eco…
This paper gives a brief overview on the nonparametric techniques that are useful for financial econometric problems. The problems include estimation and inferences of instantaneous returns and volatility functions of time-homogeneous and time-dependent diffusion processes, and estimation of transition densities and st…