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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for time series analysis

Meta-learning for Koopman spectral analysis with short time-series data.

problem Lack of long time-series for training embedding functions in Koopman spectral analysis.
method Meta-learning approach using bidirectional LSTM and neural network to estimate embedding functions from short time-series.
result The proposed method achieves better performance in eigenvalue estimation and future prediction compared to existing methods.

NEMoTS improves time series analysis by deriving efficient, interpretable models.

problem Lack of comprehensive understanding and insightful explanations in time series analysis.
method Neural-enhanced Monte-Carlo Tree Search (NEMoTS) for symbolic regression.
result NEMoTS provides efficient and interpretable models for time series analysis.

Properties of low-variability periods in the time series are analysed. The theoretical approach is used to show the relationship between the multi-scaling of low-variability periods and multi-affinity of the time series. It is shown that this technically simple method is capable of reveling more details about time-seri…

2004-06-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Overview of high-dimensional time series regression methods.

problem Estimation and inference with high-dimensional time series data.
method Limit theory for high-dimensional dependent data, asymptotic theory for time series regression, statistical learning methods.
result Main limit theory results and asymptotic theory for high-dimensional time series regression.

New method detects intrinsic cross-correlations in non-stationary time series affected by common factors.

problem Bias in cross-correlation analysis due to common external factors.
method Multifractal temporally weighted detrended partial cross-correlation analysis (MF-TWDPCCA).
result MF-TWDPCCA accurately detects intrinsic cross-correlations between non-stationary time series.

TADA detects anomalies in time series using topological data analysis.

problem Detecting global changes in dependency structure between channels in multivariate time series.
method Topological Data Analysis for detecting anomalies in multivariate time series.
result The approach is more suitable for detecting global changes of correlation structures than existing methods.

In the work, a comparative correlation and fractal analysis of time series of Bitcoin crypto currency rate and community activities in social networks associated with Bitcoin was conducted. A significant correlation between the Bitcoin rate and the community activities was detected. Time series fractal analysis indicat…

2019-04-10abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper reviews Hankel low-rank methods for time series analysis and forecasting.

problem Developing efficient methods for time series analysis and forecasting.
method Hankel low-rank approximation and completion techniques.
result Discussion of methods and challenges in obtaining optimal solutions.

Bayesian QFSTS model tackles feature selection in quantile time series analysis.

problem Quantile feature selection in correlated multivariate time series data.
method Bayesian dimension reduction methodology using QFSTS model with multivariate asymmetric Laplace distribution, spike-and-slab prior, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, and Bayesian model averaging.
result QFSTS model outperforms in feature selection, parameter estimation, and forecasting.

VTA combines verbal and latent reasoning for accurate stock time-series forecasts.

problem Challenges in combining textual analysis with time-series data for financial forecasting.
method Converts stock price data into textual annotations, optimizes reasoning trace using inverse MSE, conditions time-series model outputs on reasoning attributes.
result VTA achieves state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy and interpretable reasoning traces.

A new framework for time series analysis using state-space learning.

problem Ineffectiveness of traditional Kalman filtering in handling big data and multiple explanatory variables.
method State Space Learning (SSL) framework using statistical learning for high-dimensional regression.
result SSL outperforms traditional methods in subset selection and forecasting accuracy.

OneShotSTL efficiently decomposes time series online, improving speed and accuracy.

problem Real-time analysis of time series data with low processing delay.
method Online seasonal-trend decomposition algorithm with O(1) update time complexity.
result 1,000 times faster than batch methods with comparable accuracy.

Paper establishes a comprehensive benchmark for ECG time-series analysis.

problem Incomplete understanding of ECG signal properties and limitations in evaluation metrics.
method Categorization of downstream applications, identification of limitations, introduction of a novel metric, benchmarking of time-series models.
result Validation of the effectiveness of the proposed metric and model architecture.

Paper uses topological data analysis for time series classification.

problem Classifying univariate time series data, especially physiological signals.
method Persistent homology for feature engineering, followed by machine learning.
result Higher accuracy achieved with fewer features compared to traditional methods.

Multifractality is ubiquitously observed in complex natural and socioeconomic systems. Multifractal analysis provides powerful tools to understand the complex nonlinear nature of time series in diverse fields. Inspired by its striking analogy with hydrodynamic turbulence, from which the idea of multifractality originat…

2018-05-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Feature-based time series representations have attracted substantial attention in a wide range of time series analysis methods. Recently, the use of time series features for forecast model averaging has been an emerging research focus in the forecasting community. Nonetheless, most of the existing approaches depend on …

2019-04-17abs ↗pdf ↗

theft package simplifies feature extraction for time series analysis in R.

problem Lack of a unified access point and methodological pipelines for feature-based time series analysis.
method theft package provides a unified framework for computing features from six open-source time series feature sets.
result theft enables comprehensive quantification and interpretation of time series structure.

Novel method converts time series data into functional data for high dimensional classification.

problem Small sample size problem in high dimensional time series data.
method Classwise Functional Principal Component Analysis (PCA) followed by Bayesian linear classifier.
result Demonstrated efficacy on synthetic and real data sets.

This paper extends hypergraph construction to multivariate time series using signature transforms.

problem Constructing hypergraphs from collections of multivariate time series.
method Leveraging signature transforms to introduce controlled randomness and robustness.
result Validated on synthetic datasets, the method enhances robustness in hypergraph construction.

Researchers forecast VoIP traffic in mobile networks using multivariate time series analysis.

problem Predicting VoIP traffic behavior in real mobile networks for better resource allocation.
method Multivariate time series analysis, Vector Autoregressive models, machine learning techniques.
result Forecasting accuracy and insights into VoIP traffic dynamics.

New method phenotypes sleep apnea patients using time series analysis.

problem Traditional diagnosis of sleep apnea is insufficient for capturing its multi-faceted outcomes.
method Fuzzy clustering in time and frequency domains, and persistent homology for topological analysis.
result Phenotyping patients improves understanding of sleep apnea.

The level crossing and inverse statistics analysis of DAX and oil price time series are given. We determine the average frequency of positive-slope crossings, να+ν_α^+, where Tα=1/να+T_α =1/ν_α^+ is the average waiting time for observing the level αα again. We estimate the probability P(K,α)P(K, α), which provides us the probab…

2010-01-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Study compares Bitcoin, gold, and gas price complexity using multifractal and multiscale entropy methods.

problem Quantifying complexity of financial time series for market analysis.
method Employed MF-DFA and RCMSE to analyze Bitcoin, GBP/USD, gold, and natural gas price log-return time series.
result Bitcoin shows higher complexity compared to other markets, linked to higher nonlinear correlations.

Two possible definitions of fixed points in the self-similar analysis of time series are considered. One definition is based on the minimal-difference condition and another, on a simple averaging. From studying stock market time series, one may conclude that these two definitions are practically equivalent. A forecast …

1998-03-05abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper introduces a method for interpretable principal component analysis of high-dimensional time series.

problem Inconsistent and difficult-to-interpret principal component estimates in high-dimensional regimes.
method Localized sparse principal component analysis of spectral density matrices in frequency domain.
result Efficient algorithm for sparse-localized estimates of principal subspaces.

RST improves environmental time series classification accuracy using randomized B-spline trees.

problem Improving accuracy in classifying complex environmental time series.
method Randomized Spline Trees (RST) integrates randomized functional representations into ensemble learning.
result RST variants outperform standard Random Forests and Gradient Boosting on most environmental time series datasets.

NFM models time-series data directly in the Fourier domain, achieving state-of-the-art performance.

problem Traditional time-series analysis focuses on the time domain, limiting flexibility.
method NFM models time-series data in the Fourier domain, using frequency extrapolation and interpolation.
result NFM achieves state-of-the-art performance on various time-series tasks.