Paper introduces threshold invariant fairness to ensure equitable predictions across different groups.
problem Machine learning models can be unfair to certain groups based on sensitive attributes.
method Proposes threshold invariant fairness and uses two approximation methods to equalize risk distributions.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in alleviating threshold sensitivity in fairness models.
New method calculates sensitivity of system failure probability.
problem Difficulty in computing sensitivity of failure probability.
method Monte Carlo strategy using response gradient and kernel smoothing.
result Single Monte Carlo run for sensitivity estimates.
In this paper, we propose an effective THresholding method based on ORder Statistic, called THORS, to convert an arbitrary scoring-type classifier, which can induce a continuous cumulative distribution function of the score, into a cost-sensitive one. The procedure, uses order statistic to find an optimal threshold for…
The paper tackles fair classification with multiple sensitive features.
problem Existing fair classification methods often consider a single sensitive feature, but in practice, individuals are defined by multiple sensitive features.
method Characterizes Bayes-optimal fair classifiers for multiple sensitive features under various fairness measures, proposing in-processing and post-processing algorithms.
result Bayes-optimal fair classifiers for multiple sensitive features are instance-dependent thresholding rules that rely on a weighted sum of group membership probabilities.
We study the pricing of credit derivatives with asymmetric information. The managers have complete information on the value process of the firm and on the default threshold, while the investors on the market have only partial observations, especially about the default threshold. Different information structures are dis…
We derive a "semi-analytic" solution for a stock loan in which the lender forces liquidation when the loan-to-collateral ratio drops beneath a certain threshold. We use this to study the sensitivity of the contract to model parameters.
We propose an approach to fair classification that enforces independence between the classifier outputs and sensitive information by minimizing Wasserstein-1 distances. The approach has desirable theoretical properties and is robust to specific choices of the threshold used to obtain class predictions from model output…
Objective: Modelling the associations from high-throughput experimental molecular data has provided unprecedented insights into biological pathways and signalling mechanisms. Graphical models and networks have especially proven to be useful abstractions in this regard. Ad-hoc thresholds are often used in conjunction wi…
This paper analyzes convergence of DP-SGD with adaptive quantile clipping.
problem Empirical success of adaptive clipping methods lacks theoretical understanding.
method Comprehensive convergence analysis of SGD with quantile clipping (QC-SGD).
result Establishes theoretical guarantees for DP-QC-SGD, revealing relationships between quantile selection, step size, and convergence.
New metrics CWSA and CWSA+ improve model evaluation under confidence thresholds.
problem Lack of metrics capturing model reliability under confidence thresholds.
method Introducing CWSA and CWSA+ metrics that reward confident accuracy and penalize overconfident mistakes.
result CWSA and CWSA+ outperform classical metrics in trust-sensitive tests.
Paper proves convergence for private FL on non-Lipschitz convex objectives using normalization instead of clipping.
problem Lack of convergence results for differentially private federated learning with non-Lipschitz objectives.
method Developed a convergence result for private FL on smooth convex objectives without assuming Lipschitzness, using normalization instead of clipping.
result Normalization-based private FL algorithm converges better than clipping-based counterpart on smooth convex functions.
Proposes efficient sensitivity analysis for complex Bayesian models.
problem Inefficiency of sensitivity analyses in complex Bayesian models.
method SA-ABI: weight sharing and neural network rapid inference.
result Efficiently integrates sensitivity analyses into Bayesian inference.
The ever-increasing number of parameters in deep neural networks poses challenges for memory-limited applications. Regularize-and-prune methods aim at meeting these challenges by sparsifying the network weights. In this context we quantify the output sensitivity to the parameters (i.e. their relevance to the network ou…
Finite-time queue peaks in stochastic networks have logarithmic scaling after geometric thresholds.
problem Queue peak laws in stochastic networks with geometric thresholds.
method Self-normalization mechanism
result Logarithmic scaling of queue peaks after geometric thresholds.
Develops a fair classifier for deep learning models.
problem Ensuring fairness in classification models across different sub-populations.
method Applies Rawlsian principles to minimize error rate on the worst-off sub-population.
result Introduces a practical method to adapt any black-box deep learning model to be fair.
Data-driven anomaly detection methods typically build a model for the normal behavior of the target system, and score each data instance with respect to this model. A threshold is invariably needed to identify data instances with high (or low) scores as anomalies. This presents a practical limitation on the applicabili…
Financial markets can be seen as complex systems that are constantly evolving and sensitive to external disturbance, such as systemic risks and economic instabilities. Analysis of resilient market performance, therefore, becomes useful for investors. From a systems perspective, this paper proposes a novel function-base…
The study examines when to trust confidence thresholding in pseudo-labelling regression.
problem Calibrated probabilities from classifiers used for pseudo-labelling need careful handling to avoid bias in downstream regression.
method Developed a diagnostic apparatus to predict and bound the bias induced by confidence thresholding, derived a closed-form expression for the attenuation bias.
result The bias can be predicted from the residual score variance V∗, motivating a structural separation between classifier features and downstream controls. New algorithms optimize metrics for binary classification with class imbalance.
problem Optimizing metrics like Fβ, AM, Jaccard for imbalanced classes.
method Reformulates metric optimization as cost-sensitive learning, using surrogate loss functions.
result METRO algorithms provide strong theoretical guarantees and outperform baselines.
It has been reported repeatedly that discriminative learning of distance metric boosts the pattern recognition performance. A weak point of ITML-based methods is that the distance threshold for similarity/dissimilarity constraints must be determined manually and it is sensitive to generalization performance, although t…
This work analyzes CVaR under heavy-tailed data, providing generalization and robustness bounds.
problem Understanding CVaR's behavior under heavy-tailed data and rare high-impact losses.
method Learning-theoretic analysis of CVaR-based empirical risk minimization.
result Sharp, high-probability generalization and excess risk bounds under minimal moment assumptions.
New diagnostic method detects misspecified models in inverse PDE problems.
problem Misleading residual-norm diagnostics in inverse PDE problems.
method Structure-sensitive sequential diagnostic using e-processes.
result Rejects fitted models that produce biased predictions.
Study shows resampling can drastically alter PCA results.
problem Stability and sensitivity of PCA under data resampling.
method Analyzed resampling sensitivity of high-dimensional PCA.
result PCA's principal components become asymptotically orthogonal when resampling is significant.
Efficiently computes optimal policies for Entropic Risk Measures.
problem Optimizing risk-sensitive metrics in MDPs is computationally expensive.
method Uses Entropic Risk Measures and novel structural analysis for efficient computation.
result Achieves strong performance in various decision-making scenarios.
Boosting theory extended to handle cost-sensitive and multi-objective losses.
problem Real-world prediction problems with different error costs.
method Developed a comprehensive theory of cost-sensitive and multi-objective boosting.
result Established a dichotomy for binary classification and a more intricate landscape for multiclass settings.
For information retrieval and binary classification, we show that precision at the top (or precision at k) and recall at the top (or recall at k) are maximised by thresholding the posterior probability of the positive class. This finding is a consequence of a result on constrained minimisation of the cost-sensitive exp…
TIER uses extended strain data to improve gravitational wave detection sensitivity.
problem Improving gravitational wave detection sensitivity using extended strain data.
method TIER framework using machine learning to capture extended strain data features.
result Up to 20% improvement in sensitive volume time in LIGO-Virgo-Kagra O3 data.
Paper creates fair synthetic data ensuring equal predictions across sensitive attributes.
problem Ensuring fair predictions across sensitive attributes in synthetic data.
method Equalizing target probability distributions across sensitive attributes in synthetic data generation.
result Synthetic data provides strong fair predictions, equal across all thresholds.
We relax demographic parity in regression by enforcing parity at quantile levels and score thresholds.
problem Enforcing full distributional fairness in regression can lead to substantial accuracy loss.
method Introduce (ℓ, Z)-fair predictor, derive closed-form solutions, and develop post-processing algorithm. result The risk gap to the continuous optimum vanishes as the grid is refined, and we enable targeted fairness corrections.
In this paper, we study the sensitivity of the spectral clustering based community detection algorithm subject to a Erdos-Renyi type random noise model. We prove phase transitions in community detectability as a function of the external edge connection probability and the noisy edge presence probability under a general…
Developed a cost and revenue model for HEMS to estimate breakeven transport volumes under different reimbursement and labor cost assumptions.
problem Estimating breakeven transport volumes for HEMS under varying reimbursement and labor cost assumptions.
method Developed a two-part model: cost framework and actuarial revenue model using healthcare encounter data and payer reimbursement rates.
result Estimated breakeven transport volumes under different reimbursement and labor cost assumptions.
We study the problem of fair binary classification using the notion of Equal Opportunity. It requires the true positive rate to distribute equally across the sensitive groups. Within this setting we show that the fair optimal classifier is obtained by recalibrating the Bayes classifier by a group-dependent threshold. W…
Study optimizes interbank lending and borrowing to reduce systemic risk.
problem Optimizing lending and borrowing in interbank markets to mitigate systemic risk.
method Risk-sensitive mean field games with common noise, convex analysis, Fokker-Planck equations, first hitting time method.
result Risk-averse behavior reduces individual and systemic bank risks.
Deep ROC analysis improves model selection and interpretation in medical and AI applications.
problem Inadequate performance measures for binary classifiers.
method Deep ROC analysis, translating AUC and partial AUC into balanced average accuracy and post-test measures.
result Deep ROC analysis provides balanced average accuracy, average sensitivity, and average specificity.
Framework for precise recall control in spatial conflation tasks.
problem Precise recall control in large-scale spatial conflation tasks to avoid downstream analytics failures and excessive manual review.
method End-to-end framework using equigrid bounding-box filter, CSR representation, neural ranker, and inverse-variance weighted ensemble of threshold estimators.
result Achieves exact recall with sub-percent variance over tens of millions of geometry pairs, runs on a single TPU v3 core.
In this paper, we consider the problem of compressed sensing where the goal is to recover almost all the sparse vectors using a small number of fixed linear measurements. For this problem, we propose a novel partial hard-thresholding operator that leads to a general family of iterative algorithms. While one extreme of …
Securely analyzes survival data across multiple institutions without revealing individual patient records.
problem Privacy concerns in federated survival analysis of health data.
method Multiparty homomorphic encryption for approximate floating-point computation and encrypted aggregation.
result Privacy-preserving federated Kaplan--Meier survival analysis with high fidelity and predictable overhead.
MMD-B-Fair learns fair representations by minimizing MMD test power.
problem Learning fair representations of data while preserving target attributes.
method Kernel two-sample testing and block testing schemes.
result Minimizing MMD test power allows hiding sensitive attribute information.
Detects jumps in financial asset prices with U-shape volatility.
problem Identifying jumps in financial asset prices with varying volatility.
method Threshold method applied to five-minute log-returns.
result Visualized jumps and volatility patterns for Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock.
Develops a statistical test for IV, improving feature selection reliability.
problem Lack of statistical justification in conventional IV-based feature selection.
method Establishes connection with Jeffreys divergence and proposes a nonparametric hypothesis test.
result The J-Divergence test provides rigorous guarantees and is more reliable than traditional IV thresholds.
The paper explores fair regression and classification under demographic parity constraints.
problem Ensuring fairness in regression and classification models under demographic parity constraints.
method Characterizes the optimal fair regression function using a barycenter problem with optimal transport costs and studies the connection between fair classification and regression.
result The optimal fair regression function is derived from the solution to a barycenter problem with optimal transport costs, and the optimal fair cost-sensitive classifiers can be derived by applying thresholds to this function.
This work tackles risk-sensitive deep RL by optimizing policies with variance constraints.
problem Risk and aleatoric uncertainty in deep reinforcement learning.
method Lagrangian and Fenchel dualities to transform the problem into an unconstrained saddle-point policy optimization problem, and an actor-critic algorithm to iteratively update policy, Lagrange multiplier, and Fenchel dual variable.
result The proposed actor-critic algorithm finds a globally optimal policy at a sublinear rate.
Extends expected value framework for cost-sensitive causal decision-making.
problem Optimizing operational decision-making with cost-sensitive causal classification.
method Introduces a cost-sensitive decision boundary based on estimated individual treatment effects, positive outcome probability, and cost parameters.
result Effective in maximizing expected causal profit, outperforming cost-insensitive ranking approach.
This paper aims to classify a single PCG recording as normal or abnormal for computer-aided diagnosis. The proposed framework for this challenge has four steps: preprocessing, feature extraction, training and validation. In the preprocessing step, a recording is segmented into four states, i.e., the first heart sound, …
Unified analysis of parameter norms in overparameterized linear models, revealing scaling laws and thresholds.
problem Understanding the scaling of parameter norms in overparameterized linear models.
method Simple dual-ray analysis revealing competition between signal spike and bulk of null coordinates.
result Unified closed-form predictions for parameter norm scaling, including elbow and threshold laws.
High throughput screening of compounds (chemicals) is an essential part of drug discovery [7], involving thousands to millions of compounds, with the purpose of identifying candidate hits. Most statistical tools, including the industry standard B-score method, work on individual compound plates and do not exploit cross…
Paper presents a probabilistic model to improve LLM cascade performance.
problem Complexity of LLM cascades and their interaction error rates.
method Probabilistic model for joint performance distribution of LLMs.
result Improves area under the error-cost curve by 4.3% on average for cascades with k≥3 models.
Study improves top-k set prediction with low cardinality.
problem Improving top-k set prediction accuracy with low cardinality.
method Introduces new target loss function and surrogate losses.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of cardinality-aware algorithms.