The paper considers an investment timing problem appearing in real options theory. Present values from an investment project are modeled by general diffusion process. We prove necessary and sufficient conditions under which an optimal investment time is induced by threshold strategy. We study also the conditions of opt…
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Trend · papers per month
Willmore flow converges globally for surfaces with rotational symmetry below a specific energy threshold.
We consider a univariate semimartingale model for (the logarithm of) an asset price, containing jumps having possibly infinite activity (IA). The nonparametric threshold estimator of the integrated variance IV proposed in Mancini 2009 is constructed using observations on a discrete time grid, and precisely it sums up t…
Unified framework for shrinkage, thresholding, and regularization in normal mean estimation and linear regression.
Nuclear norm minimization (NNM) has recently gained significant attention for its use in rank minimization problems. Similar to compressed sensing, using null space characterizations, recovery thresholds for NNM have been studied in \cite{arxiv,Recht_Xu_Hassibi}. However simulations show that the thresholds are far fro…
FILTER model uses fusion penalized logistic threshold regression for high-dimensional data with unknown cut points.
Unified framework for pattern recovery in penalized and thresholded estimation.
Sharp large deviations and Gibbs conditioning for portfolio credit risk models.
Finite-time queue peaks in stochastic networks have logarithmic scaling after geometric thresholds.
Study examines financial market structure changes during the COVID-19 crash using a novel MI approach.
Study shows thresholding scheme converges for mean curvature flow of convex sets.
Thresholded Lasso bandit minimizes regret in sparse linear bandits.
Percolation on complex networks has been used to study computer viruses, epidemics, and other casual processes. Here, we present conditions for the existence of a network specific, observation dependent, phase transition in the updated posterior of node states resulting from actively monitoring the network. Since tradi…
Warrants with stock price dependent threshold conditions give the right to buy specially issued stocks, if the performance of the stock price satisfies some requirements. Existence of these derivatives changes the price process of the underlying. We show that in the presence of such warrants one cannot assume that the …
Study shows TAR model captures leverage effect in financial series.
CTI produces efficient prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.
Paper introduces threshold invariant fairness to ensure equitable predictions across different groups.
This paper considers the problem of estimating multiple related Gaussian graphical models from a -dimensional dataset consisting of different classes. Our work is based upon the formulation of this problem as group graphical lasso. This paper proposes a novel hybrid covariance thresholding algorithm that can effecti…
In this paper, we consider the Graphical Lasso (GL), a popular optimization problem for learning the sparse representations of high-dimensional datasets, which is well-known to be computationally expensive for large-scale problems. Recently, we have shown that the sparsity pattern of the optimal solution of GL is equiv…
The assumption that the values of model parameters are known or correctly learned, i.e., the Nishimori condition, is one of the requirements for the detectability analysis of the stochastic block model in statistical inference. In practice, however, there is no example demonstrating that we can know the model parameter…
Optimal regression with reject option using conditional variance thresholding.
Critical volatility triggers log-normal to power-law transitions in interconnected systems.
We present a framework and analysis of consistent binary classification for complex and non-decomposable performance metrics such as the F-measure and the Jaccard measure. The proposed framework is general, as it applies to both batch and online learning, and to both linear and non-linear models. Our work follows recen…
Improved iterative hard thresholding for faster, sparser solutions.
CIT and CIF improve feature selection for downstream prediction.
We investigate the impact of available information on the estimation of the default probability within a generalized structural model for credit risk. The traditional structural model where default is triggered when the value of the firm's asset falls below a constant threshold is extended by relaxing the assumption of…
In this paper, we investigate a multivariate multi-response (MVMR) linear regression problem, which contains multiple linear regression models with differently distributed design matrices, and different regression and output vectors. The goal is to recover the support union of all regression vectors using -reg…
We show that uniform K-stability is a Zariski open condition in Q-Gorenstein families of Q-Fano varieties. To prove this result, we consider the behavior of the stability threshold in families. The stability threshold (also known as the delta-invariant) is a recently introduced invariant that is known to detect the K-s…
This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is provided. In particular, the efficiency of an adaptive parameter estimation algorithm…
ARHT algorithm improves sparsity guarantees in convex optimization.
AIHT improves online high-dimensional quantile regression by separating support discovery and refinement.
In the spirit of [Surya07'], we develop an average problem approach to prove the optimality of threshold type strategies for optimal stopping of Lévy models with a continuous additive functional (CAF) discounting. Under spectrally negative models, we specialize this in terms of conditions on the reward function and ran…
We investigate the probability distributions of the recurrence intervals between consecutive 1-min returns above a positive threshold or below a negative threshold of two indices and 20 individual stocks in China's stock market. The distributions of recurrence intervals for positive and negative thresho…
Robust learning mixtures of linear regressions improve robustness.
Starting from an exact relationship between news, threshold and price return distributions in the stationary state, I discuss the ability of the Ghoulmie-Cont-Nadal model of traders to produce fat-tailed price returns. Under normal conditions, this model is not able to transform Gaussian news into fat-tailed price retu…
New algorithm detects communities near KS threshold with optimal rate, even in noisy conditions.
Paper proves existence of unique constant scalar curvature Kähler metric under certain conditions.
Large-scale non-convex sparsity-constrained problems have recently gained extensive attention. Most existing deterministic optimization methods (e.g., GraSP) are not suitable for large-scale and high-dimensional problems, and thus stochastic optimization methods with hard thresholding (e.g., SVRGHT) become more attract…
The paper develops a test for independence of selected Gaussian variables after thresholding correlations.
We provide high probability finite sample complexity guarantees for hidden non-parametric structure learning of tree-shaped graphical models, whose hidden and observable nodes are discrete random variables with either finite or countable alphabets. We study a fundamental quantity called the (noisy) information threshol…
New study shows diversification can increase risk for heavy-tailed losses.
We prove that within a certain threshold, the odd Betti numbers of any compact almost-hermitian manifold satisfying a degenerate Kähler condition are even, and the even Betti numbers are strictly positive.
New findings on community recovery in SBM with many communities.
Study proposes an active subsampling method for estimating individualized thresholds in high-dimensional data.
New algorithm resists contamination in high-dimensional regression with optimal performance.
Lasso proves consistent model selection for high-dimensional Ising models.
Study on sparse recovery with mixed-quality data, establishing sample-size conditions.
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (power-TGARCH) model. The mo…