This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is provided. In particular, the efficiency of an adaptive parameter estimation algorithm…
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48 results for “threshold autoregressive model”
Study shows TAR model captures leverage effect in financial series.
problem Capturing leverage effect in financial series.
method Threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with Bayesian approach.
result Analytical expressions for TAR model moments derived.
The Identification of Thresholds and Time Delay in Self-Exciting Threshold AR Model by Waveletmath-ph
In this paper we studied about the wavelet identification of the thresholds and time delay for more general case without the constraint that the time delay is smaller than the order of the model. Here we composed an empirical wavelet from the SETAR (Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive) model and identified the thres…
Calibration window selection based on change-point detection for forecasting electricity pricesq-fin.ST
New method selects recent similar periods for better electricity price forecasting.
problem Improving accuracy in forecasting electricity prices.
method Change-point detection (NOT method) to select calibration periods; estimating autoregressive models only for selected data.
result Significant improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to existing methods.
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (power-TGARCH) model. The mo…
This study aimed to find temporal clusters for several commodity prices using the threshold non-linear autoregressive model. It is expected that the process of determining the commodity groups that are time-dependent will advance the current knowledge about the dynamics of co-moving and coherent prices, and can serve a…
Semi-parametric Realized Nonlinear Conditional Autoregressive Expectile and Expected Shortfallq-fin.RM
A joint conditional autoregressive expectile and Expected Shortfall framework is proposed. The framework is extended through incorporating a measurement equation which models the contemporaneous dependence between the realized measures and the latent conditional expectile. Nonlinear threshold specification is further i…
We investigate the behavior of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index for the period from 1990:12 to 2007:06 using an unconstrained two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an unit root developed by Caner and Hansen. The method allows us to simultaneously consider non-stationarity and nonlineari…
Study bounds VAR model's circuit complexity, showing it's limited to TC^0 circuits.
problem Understanding the limitations of the Visual AutoRegressive model.
method Established circuit complexity bounds for the VAR model.
result VAR model is equivalent to a TC^0 threshold circuit with hidden dimension ≤ O(n).
In financial markets, low prices are generally associated with high volatilities and vice-versa, this well known stylized fact usually being referred to as leverage effect. We propose a local volatility model, given by a stochastic differential equation with piecewise constant coefficients, which accounts of leverage a…
CAESar improves risk forecasting by combining VaR and ES estimates.
problem Lack of tail risk measures in financial risk management.
method Conditional Autoregressive Expected Shortfall model, combining VaR and ES estimates.
result CAESar outperforms existing methods in risk forecasting.
New method reveals true causal functions in nonlinear time series, not just scores.
problem Causal discovery in nonlinear time series often uses scalar edge scores, which hide true function-valued causal influence.
method Formalized function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures. Introduced a practical framework based on ICE for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models.
result Edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors.
Structural Classification of Locally Stationary Time Series Based on Second-order Characteristicsstat.ME
Efficient method classifies locally stationary time series based on second-order characteristics.
problem Classifying locally stationary time series for various applications.
method Autoregressive approximation, ensemble aggregation, distance-based threshold.
result Zero misclassification error rate asymptotically for mildly differing second-order characteristics.
FLANDERS detects and blocks extreme model poisoning in federated learning.
problem Resilience against large-scale model poisoning attacks in federated learning.
method FLANDERS treats client updates as matrix-valued time series and identifies outliers using autoregressive forecasting.
result FLANDERS significantly improves robustness in federated learning across various attacks.
Bayesian VAR model discovers Granger causality with uncertainty-aware binary graphs.
problem Discovering Granger causal relations from multivariate time-series data.
method Bayesian Vector AutoRegression with factorised Granger-Causal Graphs.
result Our method achieves better performance, especially in low-data regimes.
Develops a new model for network estimation from multi-variate data.
problem Network estimation from multi-variate point process or time series data.
method Semi-parametric approach based on the monotone single-index multi-variate autoregressive model (SIMAM).
result Achieves optimal rates of convergence and superior performance in prediction and network estimation.
A method for learning with autoregressive chain-of-thoughts.
problem Learning prompt-to-answer mappings from sequence-to-next-token generators.
method Iterating a fixed, time-invariant generator for multiple steps to generate a chain-of-thought, then taking the final token as the answer.
result Universal representability and computationally tractable chain-of-thought learning for a simple base class.
Autoregressive models are among the best performing neural density estimators. We describe an approach for increasing the flexibility of an autoregressive model, based on modelling the random numbers that the model uses internally when generating data. By constructing a stack of autoregressive models, each modelling th…
This work proposes an efficient autoregressive model for text generation.
problem The challenge of generating high-quality text with autoregressive models.
method Introduces a cascaded decoding approach using Markov transformers to achieve sub-linear parallel time generation.
result Shows competitive accuracy/speed tradeoff compared to existing methods on five machine translation datasets.
Autoregressive sequence models achieve state-of-the-art performance in domains like machine translation. However, due to the autoregressive factorization nature, these models suffer from heavy latency during inference. Recently, non-autoregressive sequence models were proposed to reduce the inference time. However, the…
Alternative sampling method for autoregressive models using Langevin dynamics.
problem Efficiently sampling from autoregressive models.
method Initialize sequences with white noise and follow Langevin dynamics on global log-likelihood.
result Parallelizes and generalizes sampling process for autoregressive models.
Online Bayesian system identification in multivariate autoregressive models via message passingeess.SP
Bayesian method for multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous inputs.
problem Estimating uncertainties in autoregressive models with exogenous inputs.
method Recursive Bayesian estimation via message passing in a factor graph.
result Produces full posterior distributions for autoregressive coefficients and noise precision.
Autoregressive state transitions, where predictions are conditioned on past predictions, are the predominant choice for both deterministic and stochastic sequential models. However, autoregressive feedback exposes the evolution of the hidden state trajectory to potential biases from well-known train-test discrepancies.…
Paper proposes AXE loss for non-autoregressive machine translation, improving performance.
problem Challenges in training non-autoregressive models due to lack of autoregressive factors and cross entropy loss penalties.
method Proposes aligned cross entropy (AXE) loss function using a differentiable dynamic program for better word order alignment.
result AXE-based training improves performance on major WMT benchmarks and sets a new state of the art for non-autoregressive models.
SMART training improves mask-predict translations.
problem Closing the performance gap between semi-autoregressive and autoregressive models.
method SMART training method for conditional masked language models.
result SMART-trained models produce higher-quality translations.
We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…
Parallelizes autoregressive generation using VSSM.
problem Autoregressive models' inability to parallelize generation.
method Variational SSM (VSSM) with parallelizable sampling and decoding.
result Parallel generation possible with VSSM.
Linear attention in Transformers can be interpreted as dynamic VAR models.
problem Misalignment between Transformers and autoregressive forecasting objectives.
method Interpreting linear attention as VAR, rearranging MLP, attention, and flow.
result SAMoVAR improves performance, interpretability, and efficiency.
Efficiently combines autoregressive and set-based models for joint distributions.
problem Joint distributions over multiple predictions from set-based models.
method Causal autoregressive buffer that caches context and captures dependencies.
result Up to 20x faster joint sampling and density evaluation, up to 7x lower memory usage.
Standard autoregressive seq2seq models are easily trained by max-likelihood, but tend to show poor results under small-data conditions. We introduce a class of seq2seq models, GAMs (Global Autoregressive Models), which combine an autoregressive component with a log-linear component, allowing the use of global \textit{a…
Paper proposes a self-supervised method to denoise autoregressive signals with heavy-tailed noise.
problem Denoising autoregressive signals corrupted by heavy-tailed noise.
method Self-supervised learning approach without requiring full noise distribution knowledge.
result Strong denoising performance compared to baseline methods, especially for impulsive noise.
Autoregressive models struggle with hard-to-compute distributions, alternatives like energy-based and latent-variable models solve this.
problem Autoregressive models struggle with distributions whose next-symbol probability is hard to compute.
method Alternatives include energy-based models and latent-variable autoregressive models.
result Alternatives to autoregressive models can escape limitations of hard-to-compute distributions.
Study improves dividend discount model using VAR process.
problem Improving dividend discount models for better predictions.
method Introduced a Gordon growth model based on Vector Autoregressive Process (VAR).
result Two Propositions related to the new model.
We describe an optimal adversarial attack formulation against autoregressive time series forecast using Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR). In this threat model, the environment evolves according to a dynamical system; an autoregressive model observes the current environment state and predicts its future values; an attac…
Bayesian method estimates Kronecker graphical models from autoregressive processes.
problem Estimating Kronecker graphical models from autoregressive Gaussian processes.
method Bayesian approach to estimate Kronecker graphical models.
result Effectiveness demonstrated through numerical experiments and real-world data application.
The paper proposes autoregressive models for better offline RL.
problem Offline RL policy evaluation and optimization challenges.
method Autoregressive dynamics models for sequential state and reward prediction.
result Autoregressive models outperform standard methods in log-likelihood and RL tasks.
We propose a new class of models specifically tailored for spatio-temporal data analysis. To this end, we generalize the spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances, i.e. SARAR(1,1), by exploiting the recent advancements in Score Driven (SD) models typically used in time series eco…
A new clustering method for vector time series using autoregressive dynamics.
problem Clustering of vector time series based on their dynamics is challenging.
method System identification approach using mixture autoregressive models.
result Developed a computationally manageable algorithm k-LMVAR for clustering vector time series.
EventFlow forecasts event sequences without autoregression, improving accuracy.
problem Forecasting errors in autoregressive models for event sequences.
method EventFlow uses flow matching to learn joint distributions over event times directly.
result EventFlow reduces forecast error by 20%-53% compared to baselines.
Missing value imputation is a fundamental problem in spatiotemporal modeling, from motion tracking to the dynamics of physical systems. Deep autoregressive models suffer from error propagation which becomes catastrophic for imputing long-range sequences. In this paper, we take a non-autoregressive approach and propose …
Linear autoregressive models serve as basic representations of discrete time stochastic processes. Different attempts have been made to provide non-linear versions of the basic autoregressive process, including different versions based on kernel methods. Motivated by the powerful framework of Hilbert space embeddings o…
Modified asymmetric hidden Markov models for time series with autoregressive components.
problem Dynamic relationships between variables in time series data.
method Introducing an asymmetric autoregressive component to recent asymmetric hidden Markov models.
result The model can choose the optimal autoregressive order for better likelihood.
Flow-based generative models are a family of exact log-likelihood models with tractable sampling and latent-variable inference, hence conceptually attractive for modeling complex distributions. However, flow-based models are limited by density estimation performance issues as compared to state-of-the-art autoregressive…
While normalizing flows have led to significant advances in modeling high-dimensional continuous distributions, their applicability to discrete distributions remains unknown. In this paper, we show that flows can in fact be extended to discrete events---and under a simple change-of-variables formula not requiring log-d…
New model handles missing data effectively in autoregressive models.
problem Handling missing data in autoregressive models.
method Reinterpret existing models through missing data lens, introduce principled framework for incomplete datasets, active information acquisition.
result MO-ARM consistently outperforms imputation baselines across real-world benchmarks.
Autoregressive generative models of images tend to be biased towards capturing local structure, and as a result they often produce samples which are lacking in terms of large-scale coherence. To address this, we propose two methods to learn discrete representations of images which abstract away local detail. We show th…
A new autoregressive model learns the order of graph generation tasks.
problem Generating graphs in a meaningful order when the canonical order is not obvious.
method Introduces a variant of autoregressive models that dynamically decides the autoregressive order based on data.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results on molecular graph generation benchmarks.
Shrinkage algorithms are of great importance in almost every area of statistics due to the increasing impact of big data. Especially time series analysis benefits from efficient and rapid estimation techniques such as the lasso. However, currently lasso type estimators for autoregressive time series models still focus …