A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper shows supply chain features improve cyber risk prediction.
We show how to restructure the counterparty risk faced by the originator of a securitization or covered bond arising from an interest rate hedging swap assisted by a "one-way" collateral agreement. This risk emerges when the swap is negotiated between the special purpose vehicle and a third party that covers itself thr…
We study the problem of portfolio insurance from the point of view of a fund manager, who guarantees to the investor that the portfolio value at maturity will be above a fixed threshold. If, at maturity, the portfolio value is below the guaranteed level, a third party will refund the investor up to the guarantee. In ex…
Unlike other industries in which intellectual property is patentable, the financial industry relies on trade secrecy to protect its business processes and methods, which can obscure critical financial risk exposures from regulators and the public. We develop methods for sharing and aggregating such risk exposures that …
Lapse-supported life insurance exacerbates adverse selection risks.
Secure neural network inference on untrusted platforms using holographic reduced representations.
This paper assesses risks in DeFi investments.
In [1] Zawadoski introduces a banking network model in which the asset and counter-party risks are treated separately and the banks hedge their assets risks by appropriate OTC contracts. In his model, each bank has only two counter-party neighbors, a bank fails due to the counter-party risk only if at least one of its …
The paper discusses building ETF risk models using a multilevel classification taxonomy.
We report on a technique based on multi-agent games which has potential use in the prediction of future movements of financial time-series. A third-party game is trained on a black-box time-series, and is then run into the future to extract next-step and multi-step predictions. In addition to the possibility of identif…
Paper finds a method to compute fair risk-sharing rules.
Online leading has disrupted the traditional consumer banking sector with more effective loan processing. Risk prediction and monitoring is critical for the success of the business model. Traditional credit score models fall short in applying big data technology in building risk model. In this manuscript, data with var…
Wide-AdGraph detects ads and trackers using a graph of resource requests.
We introduce a two-agent problem which is inspired by price asymmetry arising from funding difference. When two parties have different funding rates, the two parties deduce different fair prices for derivative contracts even under the same pricing methodology and parameters. Thus, the two parties should enter the deriv…
We lay theoretical foundations for new database release mechanisms that allow third-parties to construct consistent estimators of population statistics, while ensuring that the privacy of each individual contributing to the database is protected. The proposed framework rests on two main ideas. First, releasing (an esti…
This study analyzes the alignment between charter value and supervision in banks.
The paper examines how decentralized credit curators have taken over risk management from traditional protocols.
Voluntary insurance contracts constitute a puzzle because they increase the expectation value of one party's wealth, whereas both parties must sign for such contracts to exist. Classically, the puzzle is resolved by introducing non-linear utility functions, which encode asymmetric risk preferences; or by assuming the p…
Method estimates joint distribution of bivariate outcomes.
DADI framework dynamically discovers fair information using reinforcement learning.
Study uses generative models to assess credit risk and determine loan sizes in e-commerce supply chain finance.
In this paper, we advocate for representation learning as the key to mitigating unfair prediction outcomes downstream. Motivated by a scenario where learned representations are used by third parties with unknown objectives, we propose and explore adversarial representation learning as a natural method of ensuring those…
Counterparty risk denotes the risk that a party defaults in a bilateral contract. This risk not only depends on the two parties involved, but also on the risk from various other contracts each of these parties holds. In rather informal markets, such as the OTC (over-the-counter) derivative market, institutions only rep…
New AI governance framework tackles risks in finance.
This paper optimizes SMPC for neural network inference, reducing memory and time.
Enhances risk model with new statistical factors.
In this paper, we have studied the pricing of a continuously collateralized CDS. We have made use of the "survival measure" to derive the pricing formula in a straightforward way. As a result, we have found that there exists irremovable trace of the counter party as well as the investor in the price of CDS through thei…
Agents prefer non-diversification in markets with extreme losses.
Distributed machine learning has been widely studied in order to handle exploding amount of data. In this paper, we study an important yet less visited distributed learning problem where features are inherently distributed or vertically partitioned among multiple parties, and sharing of raw data or model parameters amo…
MassMutual uses neural network embeddings from financial news to predict downgrade risk.
We compare two different bilateral counterparty valuation adjustment (BVA) formulas. The first formula is an approximation and is based on subtracting the two unilateral Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA)'s formulas as seen from the two different parties in the transaction. This formula is only a simplified representati…
Masked LARk prevents cross-site tracking while training models.
In this paper we discuss the issue of computation of the bilateral credit valuation adjustment (CVA) under rating triggers, and in presence of ratings-linked margin agreements. Specifically, we consider collateralized OTC contracts, that are subject to rating triggers, between two parties -- an investor and a counterpa…
Estimates conversion probabilities from click sequences with privacy constraints.
Asynchronous federated learning for vertically partitioned data improves efficiency and privacy.
In this work, we demonstrate universal multi-party poisoning attacks that adapt and apply to any multi-party learning process with arbitrary interaction pattern between the parties. More generally, we introduce and study -poisoning attacks in which an adversary controls of the parties, and for each cor…
Paper proposes a new method to compute cryptocurrency prices securely.
This article presents FVA and CVA of a bilateral derivative in a coherent manner, based on recent developments in fair value accounting and ISDA standards. We argue that a derivative liability, after primary risk factors being hedged, resembles in economics an issued variable funding note, and should be priced at the m…
RIVCoin stabilizes cryptocurrency portfolios through a DAO and redistributes income.
Real life hedging in the Black-Scholes model must be imperfect and if the stock's drift is higher than the risk free rate, leads to a profit on average. Hence the option price is examined as a fair game agreement between the parties, based on expected payoffs and a simple measure of risk. The resulting prices result in…
Graph embedding leaks sensitive graph properties and subgraphs.
The atomic swap protocol allows for the exchange of cryptocurrencies on different blockchains without the need to trust a third-party. However, market participants who desire to hold derivative assets such as options or futures would also benefit from trustless exchange. In this paper I propose the atomic swaption, whi…
We show that when a third party, the adversary, steps into the two-party setting (agent and operator) of safely interruptible reinforcement learning, a trade-off has to be made between the probability of following the optimal policy in the limit, and the probability of escaping a dangerous situation created by the adve…
A digital euro protocol offers complete privacy and offline transactions using Groth-Sahai proofs.
Wrapper improves black-box model auditability and decision trustworthiness.
Evidence acquisition costs influence disclosure behavior and preference.
Contextual bandits are online learners that, given an input, select an arm and receive a reward for that arm. They use the reward as a learning signal and aim to maximize the total reward over the inputs. Contextual bandits are commonly used to solve recommendation or ranking problems. This paper considers a learning s…
Study privacy-utility trade-off in IoT time-series data sharing with RL.