A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We propose a new probabilistic graphical model that jointly models the difficulties of questions, the abilities of participants and the correct answers to questions in aptitude testing and crowdsourcing settings. We devise an active learning/adaptive testing scheme based on a greedy minimization of expected model entro…
The paper proposes incentivizing human annotators with 'golden questions' to improve data quality.
problem Ensuring high-quality human annotations for training large language models.
method A principal-agent model is used to incentivize annotators with bonuses based on the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of their annotations. Hypothesis testing is applied to monitor the annotators' performance.
result The hypothesis testing rate for the principal-agent model is of Θ(1/nlogn), highlighting the importance of 'golden questions' for monitoring annotators.
Testing symmetry of a probability distribution is a common question arising from applications in several fields. Particularly, in the study of observables used in the analysis of stock market index variations, the question of symmetry has not been fully investigated by means of statistical procedures. In this work a di…
Framework evaluates medical image classification methods using a probabilistic model and a Twenty Questions paradigm.
problem Lack of detailed understanding of how machine learning methods make decisions in medical imaging.
method Inspired by the Turing Test, uses a probabilistic model and a Twenty Questions paradigm to evaluate classification methods based on task-specific concepts.
result Probabilistic model exposes dataset and method biases, reducing the number of queries needed for confident performance evaluation.
We develop a simple test for deviations from power law tails, which is based on the asymptotic properties of the empirical distribution function. We use this test to answer the question whether great natural disasters, financial crashes or electricity price spikes should be classified as dragon kings or 'only' as black…
Community-based Question Answering (CQA) sites play an important role in addressing health information needs. However, a significant number of posted questions remain unanswered. Automatically answering the posted questions can provide a useful source of information for online health communities. In this study, we deve…
Optimal ability estimation in adaptive testing with binary responses.
problem Estimating a continuous ability parameter from sequential binary responses.
method Adaptive selection of questions to maximize Fisher information, updating estimate using method-of-moments, and deciding accuracy with a test statistic.
result Fisher-tracking strategy achieves optimal performance in fixed-confidence and fixed-budget regimes.
Drawing on some recent results that provide the formalism necessary to definite stationarity for infinite random graphs, this paper initiates the study of statistical and learning questions pertaining to these objects. Specifically, a criterion for the existence of a consistent test for complex hypotheses is presented,…
We conduct large-scale studies on `human attention' in Visual Question Answering (VQA) to understand where humans choose to look to answer questions about images. We design and test multiple game-inspired novel attention-annotation interfaces that require the subject to sharpen regions of a blurred image to answer a qu…
Paper tackles Arabic question similarity, outperforming state-of-the-art.
problem Detecting semantically similar questions in Arabic is challenging.
method Utilizes contextualized word representations (ELMo embeddings) trained on MSA and dialectic sentences, combined with a pairwise similarity layer.
result Achieves 93% F1-score on Modern Standard Arabic benchmark and 82% on dialectical benchmark.
In this paper we settle Thurston's old question of whether the Weber-Seifert dodecahedral space is non-Haken, a problem that has been a benchmark for progress in computational 3-manifold topology over recent decades. We resolve this question by combining recent significant advances in normal surface enumeration, new he…
Hypothesis testing for graphs has been an important tool in applied research fields for more than two decades, and still remains a challenging problem as one often needs to draw inference from few replicates of large graphs. Recent studies in statistics and learning theory have provided some theoretical insights about …
The problem of finding itemsets that are statistically significantly enriched in a class of transactions is complicated by the need to correct for multiple hypothesis testing. Pruning untestable hypotheses was recently proposed as a strategy for this task of significant itemset mining. It was shown to lead to greater s…
The study of networks leads to a wide range of high dimensional inference problems. In many practical applications, one needs to draw inference from one or few large sparse networks. The present paper studies hypothesis testing of graphs in this high-dimensional regime, where the goal is to test between two populations…
This paper presents the current state of a work in progress, whose objective is to better understand the effects of factors that significantly influence the performance of Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA). A difficult task, which consists in answering (French) biology Multiple Choice Questions, is used to test the semant…
We build a deep reinforcement learning (RL) agent that can predict the likelihood of an individual testing positive for malaria by asking questions about their household. The RL agent learns to determine which survey question to ask next and when to stop to make a prediction about their likelihood of malaria based on t…
Deep Learning has managed to push boundaries in a wide variety of tasks. One area of interest is to tackle problems in reasoning and understanding, with an aim to emulate human intelligence. In this work, we describe a deep learning model that addresses the reasoning task of question-answering on categorical plots. We …