To improve the efficient frontier of the classical mean-variance model in continuous time, we propose a varying terminal time mean-variance model with a constraint on the mean value of the portfolio asset, which moves with the varying terminal time. Using the embedding technique from stochastic optimal control in conti…
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48 results for “terminal variance”
Efficiently simulates SABR model with novel sampling methods.
problem Sampling integrated variance and terminal forward price in SABR model.
method Moment-matched shifted lognormal approximation for integrated variance, CEV approximation for terminal forward price.
result Enhanced simulation scheme is highly efficient, accurate, and reliable.
This paper studies a continuous-time market where an agent, having specified an investment horizon and a targeted terminal mean return, seeks to minimize the variance of the return. The optimal portfolio of such a problem is called mean-variance efficient à la Markowitz. It is shown that, when the market coefficients a…
In the continuous time mean-variance model, we want to minimize the variance (risk) of the investment portfolio with a given mean at terminal time. However, the investor can stop the investment plan at any time before the terminal time. To solve this kind of problem, we consider to minimize the variances of the investm…
New optimization method for portfolio management maximizing wealth and utility with risk control.
problem Maximizing terminal wealth and utility with mean-variance risk control.
method Transformed into a single-objective problem using overall happiness, solved in game theoretic framework.
result Closed-form solutions for specific utility functions reveal new optimal investment strategies.
In the paper, a mean-square minimization problem under terminal wealth constraint with partial observations is studied. The problem is naturally connected to the mean-variance hedging problem under incomplete information. A new approach to solving this problem is proposed. The paper provides a solution when the underly…
Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection model with nonlinear wealth equations and bankruptcy prohibition is investigated by the dual method. A necessary and sufficient condition which the optimal terminal wealth satisfies is obtained through a terminal perturbation technique. It is also shown that the optimal…
The paper optimizes insurance dividend payments and reinsurance strategies under specific distribution constraints.
problem Optimizing insurance dividend payments and reinsurance strategies with terminal distribution constraints.
method Explicit expressions for optimal strategies found in both discrete and continuous time settings.
result Explicit expressions for optimal dividend strategies and reinsurance strategies found.
Continuous-Time Risk Contribution of the Terminal Variance and its Related Risk Budgeting Problemq-fin.MF
This paper extends risk parity to continuous-time, solving risk budgeting problems.
problem Achieving robust risk across different assets in continuous-time.
method Characterizing risk contributions and solving risk budgeting problems using continuous-time terminal variance.
result Risk contributions and risk budgets can be represented as predictable processes in continuous-time.
New strategies for identifying the best arm in bandits with decreasing variances.
problem Best arm identification in bandits with time-varying variances.
method Two policies: initial wait followed by continuous sampling, and periodic sampling with weighted average.
result Analytical guarantees and simulations show improved performance over existing methods.
The paper analyzes optimal investment strategies for life insurance contracts using mean-variance optimization.
problem Optimal portfolio choice for equity holders in life insurance contracts.
method Mean-variance optimization, explicit formulas, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, numerical analysis.
result Equity holders increase investment in risky assets during economic downturns.
In this paper we study a class of time-inconsistent terminal Markovian control problems in discrete time subject to model uncertainty. We combine the concept of the sub-game perfect strategies with the adaptive robust stochastic to tackle the theoretical aspects of the considered stochastic control problem. Consequentl…
GH-PID uses guided harmonic paths for efficient SOT with interpretable diagnostics.
problem Efficiently solving Stochastic Optimal Transport with hard terminal distributions and soft costs.
method Guided Harmonic Path-Integral Diffusion (GH-PID) framework with low-dimensional guidance.
result GH-PID generates geometry-aware, cost-reducing trajectories that match terminal distributions.
A new method designs batches for Bayesian optimization more efficiently.
problem Efficiently designing batches for Bayesian optimization to reduce total time.
method Minimal Terminal Variance (MTV) acquisition function, optimizing I-optimality criterion.
result MTV designs batches more efficiently than other methods, as shown by numerical experiments.
Sparse PCA selects variables with FDR control for improved performance.
problem Sparse PCA selects irrelevant variables when maximizing explained variance.
method Proposes FDR-controlled selection using T-Rex selector.
result Significant performance improvement over traditional sparse PCA.
We prove that the variance swap rate (fair strike) equals the price of a co-terminal European-style contract when the underlying is an exponential Markov process, time-changed by an arbitrary continuous stochastic clock, which has arbitrary correlation with the driving Markov process, provided that the payoff function …
Investors with asymmetric information play a game to optimize their portfolios.
problem Two investors with different information levels compete in portfolio selection.
method Modelled as a Stackelberg game with entropy-regularized mean-variance objectives.
result Equilibria exist where follower's strategy depends on leader's actions.
Pricing joint claims on an asset and its realized variance under stochastic volatility modelsq-fin.PR
In a stochastic volatility framework, we find a general pricing equation for the class of payoffs depending on the terminal value of a market asset and its final quadratic variation. This allows a pricing tool for European-style claims paying off at maturity a joint function of the underlying and its realised volatilit…
The paper analyzes how investors' wealth can decline collectively under partial information.
problem Investors' wealth can decline collectively under partial information.
method The paper derives a Nash equilibrium for mean-variance portfolio selection under relative performance criteria, considering both full and partial information.
result Relative performance criteria can lead to downward self-reinforcement of investors' wealth, which is more pronounced under partial information.
We consider a time-consistent mean-variance portfolio selection problem of an insurer and allow for the incorporation of basis (mortality) risk. The optimal solution is identified with a Nash subgame perfect equilibrium. We characterize an optimal strategy as solution of a system of partial integro-differential equatio…
Robust, or model-independent properties of the variance swap are well-known, and date back to Dupire and Neuberger, who showed that, given the price of co-terminal call options, the price of a variance swap was exactly specified under the assumption that the price process is continuous. In Cox and Wang we showed that a…
Incomplete financial markets are considered, defined by a multi-dimensional non-homogeneous diffusion process, being the direct sum of an Itô process (the price process), and another non-homogeneous diffusion process (the exogenous process, representing exogenous stochastic sources). The drift and the diffusion matrix …
We consider the problem of ESO valuation in continuous time. In particular, we consider models that assume that an appropriate random time serves as a proxy for anything that causes the ESO's holder to exercise the option early, namely, reflects the ESO holder's job termination risk as well as early exercise behaviour.…
Path-dependent PDEs model VIX and Realised Variance options.
problem Modeling volatility derivatives with path-dependence.
method Continuous stochastic volatility model with Gaussian Volterra process, proving well-posedness of PDEs.
result Formulae for greeks and implied volatility provided, finite-dimensional pricing PDEs obtained in Markovian models.
This paper studies the continuous time mean-variance portfolio selection problem with one kind of non-linear wealth dynamics. To deal the expectation constraint, an auxiliary stochastic control problem is firstly solved by two new generalized stochastic Riccati equations from which a candidate portfolio in feedback for…
The discrete-time mean-variance portfolio selection formulation, a representative of general dynamic mean-risk portfolio selection problems, does not satisfy time consistency in efficiency (TCIE) in general, i.e., a truncated pre-committed efficient policy may become inefficient when considering the corresponding trunc…
We consider a distributed parameter estimation problem, in which multiple terminals send messages related to their local observations using limited rates to a fusion center who will obtain an estimate of a parameter related to observations of all terminals. It is well known that if the transmission rates are in the Sle…
This paper studies a continuous-time market {under stochastic environment} where an agent, having specified an investment horizon and a target terminal mean return, seeks to minimize the variance of the return with multiple stocks and a bond. In the considered model firstly proposed by [3], the mean returns of individu…
New simulation method simplifies Heston model with Poisson conditioning for better accuracy and efficiency.
problem Computational expense in exact simulation schemes for Heston model.
method Proposes a new exact simulation scheme without modified Bessel function evaluations, leveraging conditional integrated variance simplification.
result Good performance in terms of accuracy, efficiency, and reliability compared to existing methods.
Develops first closed-form portfolio formula for GARCH spot assets.
problem Optimizing portfolio allocation for assets with time-varying volatility.
method Closed-form solution for CRRA utility maximization under HN-GARCH model.
result Optimal strategy is independent of asset volatility development.
Theoretical guarantees for sampling and inference in generative models with latent diffusionsmath.PR
We introduce and study a class of probabilistic generative models, where the latent object is a finite-dimensional diffusion process on a finite time interval and the observed variable is drawn conditionally on the terminal point of the diffusion. We make the following contributions: We provide a unified viewpoint on b…
T-Rex selector selects variables fast and controls FDR in high-dimensional data.
problem Variable selection in high-dimensional data with FDR control.
method Fused solutions of early terminated random experiments.
result FDR control at target level with high variable selection power.
Optimal timing for borrowing from a 457(b) plan to maximize returns.
problem Deciding the best time to borrow from a tax-advantaged retirement account.
method Formulated and solved the optimal stopping problem for a loan from a 457(b) plan.
result Derived cutoff rules for optimal loan control, showing how to wait until a certain amount of money is accumulated.
A new method improves graph random features with quasi-Monte Carlo techniques.
problem Improving the accuracy of graph random features.
method Induces negative correlations in random walks using antithetic termination.
result Strong theoretical guarantees on lower-variance estimators of the Laplacian kernel.
Investment strategy in ambiguous financial markets with learning
problem Continuous time investment problem in multi-asset Black-Scholes market with model ambiguity
method Optimal dynamic investment strategy within the class of all adapted strategies which allow for learning
result Ambiguity averse investors invest less in risky assets
In this article, we apply the forward variance modeling approach by L.Bergomi to the co-terminal swap market model. We build an interest rate model for which all the market price changes of hedging instruments, interest rate swaps and European swaptions, are interpreted as the state variable variations, and no diffusio…
We present a discrete time stochastic volatility model in which the conditional distribution of the logreturns is a Variance-Gamma, that is a normal variance-mean mixture with Gamma mixing density. We assume that the Gamma mixing density is time varying and follows an affine Garch model, trying to capture persistence o…
A/B testing refers to the task of determining the best option among two alternatives that yield random outcomes. We provide distribution-dependent lower bounds for the performance of A/B testing that improve over the results currently available both in the fixed-confidence (or delta-PAC) and fixed-budget settings. When…
This paper proposes a new geometric framework for asset pricing.
problem The asymmetry between risk-neutral and physical measures in asset pricing.
method Information geometry, focusing on the relativity of probabilistic reference frames.
result Unified explanation for price fluctuations, event-driven behavior, and risk premia.
In this work, we consider the problem of autonomously discovering behavioral abstractions, or options, for reinforcement learning agents. We propose an algorithm that focuses on the termination condition, as opposed to -- as is common -- the policy. The termination condition is usually trained to optimize a control obj…
Study dynamic asset allocation in incomplete markets using game theory and nonlocal BSDEs.
problem Dynamic mean-variance asset allocation in general incomplete markets with non-exponential discounting.
method Game-theoretic approach, decomposition into myopic and hedging strategies, nonlocal BSDEs, fixed-point theorem.
result Well-posedness of solutions to BSDEs, existence of equilibrium control policy.
Improved HGF networks avoid negative precision errors in volatility updates.
problem Negative posterior precision errors in volatility-coupled nodes of HGF networks.
method Introduced a modified quadratic approximation to variational energy.
result Robust update equations across parameter space that track posterior faithfully.
This study examines deep hedging for S&P 500 options, revealing systematic delta corrections and fragility.
problem Understanding and validating deep hedging strategies for financial options.
method Compared TD3 agents with a Black-Scholes delta hedge, using walk-forward tests and symbolic regression.
result Deep hedging agents learn systematic delta corrections, which can improve performance but are regime-fragile.
Study bounds for prices of European and American options with optional termination.
problem Bounding prices of options with potential termination.
method Duality results linking upper prices of vulnerable options to American options with constrained exercise times.
result Linking upper prices of vulnerable options to American options and game options.
The paper finds optimal threshold strategies for insurance companies with a positive terminal value at creeping ruin.
problem Optimizing dividend payments in an insurance company's surplus process with a positive terminal value at creeping ruin.
method Using fluctuation theory, the paper derives explicit formulas for the objective function and shows the optimality of threshold strategies.
result Threshold strategies are optimal for the dividend optimization problem under certain conditions.
New method preserves distances in time series data.
problem Preserving distances in time series data under interpolation.
method Developed lines-preserving terminal embeddings.
result First dimension-free coresets for Fréchet distance clustering.
A pairs trading model with time-varying volatility using stochastic control.
problem Optimizing pairs trading strategies with fluctuating asset volatilities.
method Stochastic control techniques, Finite Difference method, Generalized Method of Moments.
result Optimal trading strategies maximizing expected power utility from terminal wealth.
Proves finite step termination of Kähler-Einstein metric singularity formation.
problem Singularity formation of Kähler-Einstein metrics.
method Finite step termination of bubble trees for singularity formation.
result Finite step termination of Kähler-Einstein metric singularity formation proved in non-collapsing situation.