Random forest model predicts tennis match outcomes with 80% accuracy.
problem Predicting tennis match outcomes before the game starts.
method Used a large database of tennis match information and a random forest model.
result Identified serve strength as a key predictor of match outcome.
This paper presents a novel framework for predicting shot location and type in tennis. Inspired by recent neuroscience discoveries we incorporate neural memory modules to model the episodic and semantic memory components of a tennis player. We propose a Semi Supervised Generative Adversarial Network architecture that c…
Two approaches use TDA and graph theory for tennis match prediction.
problem Predicting tennis match outcomes using network features.
method Lower-star filtration on player competitive networks, Random Forest model, modified Katz similarity index.
result TDA features alone can achieve above-chance prediction in tennis match outcomes.
Robotic table tennis learns efficient policies to return balls at 100Hz.
problem Developing efficient robotic table tennis strategies.
method Model-free reinforcement learning using evolutionary search on CNN-based policies.
result Robots can develop multi-modal styles (forehand and backhand) with 80% return rate.
Action recognition has attracted increasing attention from RGB input in computer vision partially due to potential applications on somatic simulation and statistics of sport such as virtual tennis game and tennis techniques and tactics analysis by video. Recently, deep learning based methods have achieved promising per…
We propose a novel ranking model that combines the Bradley-Terry-Luce probability model with a nonnegative matrix factorization framework to model and uncover the presence of latent variables that influence the performance of top tennis players. We derive an efficient, provably convergent, and numerically stable majori…
Wearables like smartwatches which are embedded with sensors and powerful processors, provide a strong platform for development of analytics solutions in sports domain. To analyze players' games, while motion sensor based shot detection has been extensively studied in sports like Tennis, Golf, Baseball; Table Tennis and…
Wearable devices have the potential to enhance sports performance, yet they are not fulfilling this promise. Our previous studies with 6 professional tennis coaches and 20 players indicate that this could be due the lack of psychological or mental state feedback, which the coaches claim to provide. Towards this end, we…
Pref-SHAP explains preferences using Shapley values.
problem Challenging problem of preference explanation in machine learning.
method Shapley value-based model explanation framework for pairwise comparison data.
result Richer and more insightful explanations obtained over baseline.
Bayesian model infers strengths from noisy tennis match outcomes.
problem Ranking tennis players from match outcomes.
method Bayesian approach to infer unobserved strengths and mapping function.
result Bayesian approach robust to different model specifications.
Dynamic paired comparison models, such as Elo and Glicko, are frequently used for sports prediction and ranking players or teams. We present an alternative dynamic paired comparison model which uses a Gaussian Process (GP) as a prior for the time dynamics rather than the Markovian dynamics usually assumed. In addition,…
What is the longest rope on the unit sphere? Intuition tells us that the answer to this packing problem depends on the rope's thickness. For a countably infinite number of prescribed thickness values we construct and classify all solution curves. The simplest ones are similar to the seamlines of a tennis ball, others e…
Deep model predicts robot trajectories in real time.
problem Real-time robot trajectory prediction with low latency.
method Deep conditional generative model trained with SGDVB.
result More accurate long-term predictions with lower latency.
Probabilistic representations of movement primitives open important new possibilities for machine learning in robotics. These representations are able to capture the variability of the demonstrations from a teacher as a probability distribution over trajectories, providing a sensible region of exploration and the abili…
The paper explores three methods to assign a metric to shape spaces.
problem Assigning a Riemannian metric to shape spaces without parameterization.
method Three methods to put a Riemannian metric on shape spaces.
result Methods provide a way to measure deformations independent of parameterization.
We show that the torsion of any simple closed curve Γ in Euclidean 3-space changes sign at least 4 times provided that it is star-shaped and locally convex with respect to a point o in the interior of its convex hull. The latter condition means that through each point p of Γ there passes a plane H, not cont…
We show that every smooth closed curve C immersed in Euclidean 3-space satisfies the sharp inequality 2(P+I)+V >5 which relates the numbers P of pairs of parallel tangent lines, I of inflections (or points of vanishing curvature), and V of vertices (or points of vanishing torsion) of C. We also show that 2(P'+I)+V >3, …
In this study, we investigate the use of global information to speed up the learning process and increase the cumulative rewards of reinforcement learning (RL) in competition tasks. Within the actor-critic RL, we introduce multiple cooperative critics from two levels of the hierarchy and propose a reinforcement learnin…
Paper establishes statistical inference for pairwise comparison models.
problem Statistical inference for pairwise comparison models when the number of subjects diverges.
method Identifies Fisher information matrix as a weighted graph Laplacian for asymptotic normality.
result Near-optimal asymptotic normality result for maximum likelihood estimator.
A new ranking model with dynamic covariates improves statistical analysis.
problem Statistical ranking with varying covariates across comparisons.
method Introduced a Plackett--Luce framework for covariate-assisted ranking, providing conditions for model identifiability and MLE existence, and developing an alternating maximization algorithm.
result Uniform consistency of the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) under suitable assumptions on graph design and covariates.
Study confirms mispricing in sportsbooks but finds data issues affect results.
problem Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks.
method Replication using Wikipedia buzz factor metric and backtesting.
result Data quality issues affect betting results; only one strategy remains profitable.
This work explains RL policies using causal models, revealing important patterns and failures.
problem Understanding why RL policies succeed or fail in complex, high-dimensional systems.
method Developed a nonlinear Causal Model Reduction framework to learn simplified causal models from RL policy actions and rewards.
result The approach can uncover important behavioral patterns and failure modes in trained RL policies.
Method distills reward and strategies from diverse demonstrators.
problem Reward ambiguity and heterogeneity in human demonstrations.
method Reward network distillation to infer task goal and strategies.
result Better recovery of task and strategy rewards.
New ranking models for time series data using GARCH-type approach.
problem Handling time series of ranking data.
method Developed ranking GARCH models based on Mallows distribution and maximum likelihood estimation.
result The proposed models capture temporal dynamics of rankings effectively.
Geometric approach improves motion alignment accuracy and efficiency.
problem Temporal alignment of human motion data for various applications.
method Geometric point of view, principal fiber bundle, reparameterization invariant projection, dynamic programming, keyframe correspondences.
result Temporal alignment procedures are more accurate and computationally efficient.
TrackNet tracks tiny balls in sports videos with high precision.
problem Accurately tracking tiny and fast-moving objects like tennis balls in sports videos.
method Developed a heatmap-based deep learning network, TrackNet, trained on public and additional labeled videos.
result Achieved high precision (99.7%) in ball tracking on public domain videos.
Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.
problem Binary prediction sets are limited; fuzzy prediction sets offer richer guarantees.
method Generalize prediction sets to fuzzy sets, showing they are e-values with merging properties.
result Optimal e-values lead to optimal fuzzy prediction sets, including optimal conformal prediction.
Paper defines predictive multiplicity and measures its severity in classification problems.
problem Challenges in machine learning due to competing models with conflicting predictions.
method Formal measures and integer programming tools for linear classification problems.
result Real-world datasets may admit competing models with wildly conflicting predictions.
This paper re-examines conformal e-prediction and its advantages over conformal prediction.
problem The relationship between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction.
method Systematic re-examination of conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction from a modern perspective.
result Conformal e-prediction has advantages such as ease of designing conditional predictors and guaranteed validity of cross-predictors.
Two new methods improve efficiency of conformal predictive systems.
problem Efficiency of conformal predictive systems in regression problems.
method Split conformal predictive systems and cross-conformal predictive systems.
result Cross-conformal predictive systems are more efficient but not guaranteed valid.
Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.
problem Improving the reliability and uncertainty quantification of machine learning predictions.
method Combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction for binary and regression problems.
result Improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers practical alternatives.
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.
Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
problem Understanding how predictions influence real-world outcomes.
method Causal identifiability analysis of prediction-covariate-outcome relationships.
result Standard supervised learning can identify transferable relationships from predictions.
Proposes feature conformal prediction for broader application in semantic feature spaces.
problem Establishing valid prediction intervals in semantic feature spaces.
method Extends conformal prediction to semantic feature spaces using deep representation learning.
result Feature conformal prediction outperforms regular conformal prediction under mild assumptions.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in hospitalized patients and can lead to serious medical complications. In order to optimally predict AKI before it develops at any time during a hospital stay, we present a novel framework in which AKI is continually predicted automatically from EHR data over the entire hospit…
AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.
problem Creating valid and accurate prediction intervals for machine learning models.
method AutoML framework that optimizes prediction interval length for better accuracy and less conservatism.
result AutoCP significantly outperforms benchmark algorithms in constructing accurate prediction intervals.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
ICP improves prediction intervals for continuous outcomes at lower computational cost.
problem Systematic bias in point predictions that undermines their use in decision-making.
method Develops Isotonic Conformal Prediction (ICP) framework to decouple calibration from prediction-set construction.
result SICP and TICP procedures match SC-CP coverage at lower computational cost.
Optimizes predictions for specific tasks using parametrized decision analysis.
problem Optimizing predictions for specific decision tasks of interest.
method Designs a class of parametrized actions for Bayesian decision analysis.
result Derives efficient and interpretable solutions for various action parametrizations and loss functions.
New measures for prediction validity and consonant plausibility introduced.
problem Challenges in predicting future observations and quantifying prediction uncertainty.
method Introducing Type-2 validity and using consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
result Achieving both Type-1 and Type-2 validity through consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
RFpredInterval package builds prediction intervals for random forests and boosted forests.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in random forest and boosted forest point predictions.
method 16 methods to build prediction intervals with random forests and boosted forests.
result The proposed method outperforms existing methods in building prediction intervals.
FPPI selectively uses predictions to improve inference efficiency.
problem Improving statistical inference with limited labeled data and heterogeneous prediction quality.
method Filtered Prediction-Powered Inference (FPPI) framework.
result FPPI achieves strictly improved asymptotic efficiency compared to existing methods.
COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.
problem Overly conservative prediction sets in online conformal prediction methods when data distribution shifts.
method Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP) incorporating estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores.
result COP produces tighter prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, outperforming other methods.
Proposes a model to update industrial data predictions based on temporal changes.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in industrial data analytics by addressing changing conditions over time.
method Integrates similarity and loss functions to estimate and update prediction models adaptively.
result The data renewal model enhances prediction accuracy by identifying and updating model changes.
Unified framework for estimating random forest prediction errors.
problem Estimating prediction errors for random forests.
method Novel estimator of conditional prediction error distribution function.
result Proposed estimators enable competitive prediction intervals.
Predicts food ingredient amounts from images.
problem Predicting relative amounts of ingredients from food images.
method Proposes two deep learning models for sparse and dense predictions, with semi-automatic data pre-processing.
result Encouraging experimental results on a recipe dataset.