This study prioritizes temporal resolution over spatial in energy systems models due to higher influence.
problem The impact of spatial and temporal resolution on energy system models.
method Global sensitivity analysis to compare structural aspects, spatial, and temporal resolution.
result Temporal resolution has a higher influence on all results parameters compared to spatial resolution.
Introduces Space Fortress to test RL algorithms' context and time sensitivity.
problem RL benchmarks lack context-dependent shifts and temporal sensitivity.
method Introduces Space Fortress as a new RL benchmark.
result Existing RL algorithms fail on Space Fortress due to context insensitivity and reward sparsity.
Study examines how different time series cross-validation methods affect anomaly detection in multivariate time series.
problem Evaluating anomaly detection in multivariate time series requires preserving temporal dependencies, especially for subsequence anomalies.
method Systematically investigates walk-forward and sliding window methods across various validation configurations and classifier types.
result Sliding window method consistently yields higher precision-recall scores and reduced fold-to-fold performance variance, particularly for deep learning models.
Time-aware fact-checking improves veracity predictions for time-sensitive claims.
problem Fact-checking decisions should consider temporal information of claims and evidence.
method Investigated four temporal ranking methods to optimize evidence ranking for fact-checking models.
result Time-aware evidence ranking surpasses relevance assumptions and improves veracity predictions for time-sensitive claims.
A new method uses variational autoencoders to speed up greenhouse gas sensitivity calculations.
problem Computational inefficiency in generating LPDM sensitivities from gas mole fraction observations.
method Developed a convolutional variational autoencoder (CVAE) to emulate LPDM sensitivities in a low-dimensional space.
result The CVAE-based emulator outperforms traditional methods and can be applied to various LPDMs.
Accurately predicting customer churn using large scale time-series data is a common problem facing many business domains. The creation of model features across various time windows for training and testing can be particularly challenging due to temporal issues common to time-series data. In this paper, we will explore …
A simple GI loss improves temporal generalization without complex methods.
problem Temporal drift between train and test distributions in evolving data.
method Gradient Interpolation (GI) loss to regularize temporal complexity.
result GI loss outperforms complex methods on real-world datasets.
New TD algorithms stabilize RL tasks by reformulating updates into fixed point equations.
problem TD learning's sensitivity to step size specification.
method Implicit TD algorithms reformulate TD updates into fixed point equations.
result Implicit TD algorithms are more stable and less sensitive to step size.
A cornerstone of human statistical learning is the ability to extract temporal regularities / patterns from random sequences. Here we present a method of computing pattern time statistics with generating functions for first-order Markov trials and independent Bernoulli trials. We show that the pattern time statistics c…
Novel deep learning model for multivariate time series prediction.
problem Challenges in multivariate time series prediction with correlations and complex temporal patterns.
method Temporal Tensor Transformation Network (TTNT) that transforms multivariate time series into tensors for improved feature extraction.
result TTNT outperforms state-of-the-art methods in window-based predictions across various tasks.
The family of temporal difference (TD) methods span a spectrum from computationally frugal linear methods like TD(λ) to data efficient least squares methods. Least square methods make the best use of available data directly computing the TD solution and thus do not require tuning a typically highly sensitive learning r…
Study uses DRL with Lagrangian relaxation to solve temporal control tasks with STL constraints.
problem Optimal control problems with temporal logic constraints.
method Extended CMDP formulation, Lagrangian relaxation, two-phase constrained DRL algorithm.
result Demonstrated learning performance of the proposed algorithm through simulations.
TimeLAVA: A Learning-Agnostic Framework for Valuing Time Series
problem Valuing time series data for critical domains like healthcare, finance, and industrial monitoring
method A novel Selective Wavelet-based Wasserstein discrepancy for segmenting and valuing temporal segments
result Significantly more informative value scores than existing methods
TimeLAVA learns time series segment values without model dependence.
problem Valuation of time series data for critical domains.
method Learning-agnostic framework using Selective Wavelet-based Wasserstein discrepancy.
result TimeLAVA produces more informative value scores than existing methods.
Proposes FairDRL-ST for fair spatio-temporal mobility prediction.
problem Fairness concerns in spatio-temporal AI applications.
method Disentangled representation learning, adversarial learning.
result Achieves fairness in spatio-temporal mobility prediction without performance loss.
For highly sensitive real-world predictive analytic applications such as healthcare and medicine, having good prediction accuracy alone is often not enough. These kinds of applications require a decision making process which uses uncertainty estimation as input whenever possible. Quality of uncertainty estimation is a …
Graph Neural Networks improve volatility prediction in financial markets.
problem Traditional models struggle with complex, non-linear interdependencies in financial markets.
method Temporal Graph Attention Network (Temporal GAT) combines GCNs and GATs to capture dynamic graph structures.
result Temporal GAT outperforms traditional GARCH models in volatility forecasting, especially for short- to mid-term predictions.
FinHEAR combines LLMs with human expertise for better financial decision-making.
problem Challenges in financial decision-making for language models.
method Multi-agent framework with specialized LLMs for historical analysis, event interpretation, and expert retrieval.
result FinHEAR outperforms baselines in financial tasks with higher accuracy and risk-adjusted returns.
New algorithm for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with natural policy gradients.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with downside risk constraints.
method Introduce a new Bellman equation to estimate the lower partial moment of returns, use natural policy gradients, and extend Reward Constrained Policy Optimization.
result Sample-efficient estimation of partial moments and effective risk-sensitive control.
Deep learning speeds up real-time emission monitoring.
problem Real-time greenhouse gas emission monitoring under transient conditions.
method Bayesian inference with deep learning surrogate of CFD outputs.
result Near-real-time predictions with orders-of-magnitude faster runtimes.
Improved TD(0) algorithm for reinforcement learning with linear approximations.
problem Sensitivity of TD(0) to stepsizes and slow convergence.
method AdaTD(0) - Adaptive projected variant of TD(0) with linear function approximation.
result AdaTD(0) converges faster and is less sensitive to stepsizes.
New TD method stabilizes average-reward learning.
problem Stability issues in average-reward TD learning.
method Implicit fixed point update for average-reward TD(λ). result Improved numerical stability and broader step-size range.
Paper models spatio-temporal extremes using conditional variational autoencoders.
problem Modeling co-occurrence of extreme weather events under changing climate conditions.
method Conditional Variational Autoencoder (cXVAE) with CNN integration.
result Accurately emulates spatial fields and recovers extremal dependence with low computational cost.
Algorithm generates private continuous-time data for sensitive domains.
problem Private generation of continuous-time data for sensitive domains.
method Mean-field Langevin dynamics and noisy particle gradient descent.
result Strong privacy guarantees for one-time data contributions.
New algorithm improves causal discovery in biomedical data.
problem Stability and accuracy issues in causal discovery algorithms.
method Exploits temporal structure and tiered background knowledge.
result Increases accuracy in finite samples for causal structure estimation.
Model predicts treatment initiation from clinical data using patient-clinician relations.
problem Predicting treatment initiation from clinical time series data considering patient-clinician relations.
method Graph-Augmented Time-Sensitive Model using top eigenvectors of graph Laplacian.
result Relational similarity improves prediction over baselines, e.g., 5% improvement in AUPRC.
PARAFAC2 has demonstrated success in modeling irregular tensors, where the tensor dimensions vary across one of the modes. An example scenario is modeling treatments across a set of patients with the varying number of medical encounters over time. Despite recent improvements on unconstrained PARAFAC2, its model factors…
HED Score improves temporal evaluation of detection accuracy.
problem Temporal agnosticism in existing evaluation frameworks for non-stationary processes.
method Measure-theoretic HED Score integrating exponentially decaying kernel over posterior probability stream.
result HED Score achieves 388.8% improvement over ROC/AUC on NSL-KDD benchmark.
Spiking neural networks (SNNs) could play a key role in unsupervised machine learning applications, by virtue of strengths related to learning from the fine temporal structure of event-based signals. However, some spike-timing-related strengths of SNNs are hindered by the sensitivity of spike-timing-dependent plasticit…
Combining LETKF and RC improves chaotic system prediction from noisy, sparse data.
problem Improving chaotic system prediction from imperfect observations and models.
method Combining LETKF and RC to predict spatio-temporal chaotic systems from noisy and sparsely distributed observations.
result The proposed method using LETKF and RC outperforms LETKF in predicting chaotic systems from noisy and sparse observations.
A deep learning model predicts traffic conditions over multiple steps.
problem Multistep traffic forecasting on road networks.
method Attention Graph Convolutional Sequence-to-Sequence model (AGC-Seq2Seq) with attention mechanism.
result AGC-Seq2Seq model outperforms other models in multistep traffic prediction.
Proposes a feature transformation for spatio-temporal traffic models to improve performance and transferability.
problem Limited transferability of deep learning models for traffic flow prediction across different locations.
method Integrates Newell's traffic flow estimators to capture broader dynamics and incorporates spatial dependencies.
result Improves model performance in predicting traffic flows over different horizons.
We address an anomaly detection setting in which training sequences are unavailable and anomalies are scored independently of temporal ordering. Current algorithms in anomaly detection are based on the classical density estimation approach of learning high-dimensional models and finding low-probability events. These al…
This research investigates reliable local explanations for machine listening models.
problem Generating reliable local explanations for machine listening models.
method Investigates the sensitivity of SoundLIME explanations to input perturbations and proposes a novel method for identifying suitable content types.
result SoundLIME explanations are sensitive to the content in occluded input regions, and the average magnitude of input mel-spectrogram bins is the most suitable content type for temporal explanations.
New privacy method for eye tracking data reduces correlations and maintains accuracy.
problem Privacy concerns in eye tracking data from VR/AR glasses.
method Transform-coding based differential privacy mechanism for eye movement data.
result Significant reductions in sample correlations and query sensitivities, providing high privacy without loss in accuracy.
TCP provides well-calibrated prediction intervals for nonstationary time series.
problem Nonstationary time series forecasting with well-calibrated prediction intervals.
method Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP) couples a modern quantile forecaster with a rolling split-conformal calibration layer.
result TCP achieves near-nominal coverage, providing slightly wider intervals than Historical Simulation.
New probability path model improves flow matching forecasting performance.
problem Impact of probability path model selection on flow matching forecasting performance.
method Proposed a novel probability path model designed to improve forecasting performance.
result Our model achieves faster convergence during training and improved predictive performance compared to existing models.
Study optimizes health incentives to balance efficiency and fairness.
problem Designing health incentives to balance efficiency and fairness.
method Inverse behavioral optimization framework integrating QALY-based incentives and adaptive learning.
result Modern health systems operate near an efficiency-saturated frontier, with small fairness adjustments yielding diminishing returns.
CoI framework models clinical feature interactions, revealing temporal dependencies and enhancing transparency.
problem Capturing latent, time-varying dependencies among clinical features in time-series data.
method Chain-of-Influence (CoI) framework constructs an explicit, time-unfolded graph of feature interactions.
result Achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance (AUROC of 0.960 on CKD progression and 0.950 on ICU mortality).
One of the main obstacles to broad application of reinforcement learning methods is the parameter sensitivity of our core learning algorithms. In many large-scale applications, online computation and function approximation represent key strategies in scaling up reinforcement learning algorithms. In this setting, we hav…
Study uses topological signatures to quantify financial market complexity.
problem Capturing temporal organization beyond volatility measures.
method Null validated topological approach using L1 norm of persistence landscapes. result Persistence landscape norms reveal dynamical structure during market stress.
New method controls false detections in brain activity localization.
problem Statistical control of false detections in brain activity localization.
method Adapted Lasso estimator for spatio-temporal MEG/EEG data.
result Offers statistical guarantees and adaptive method for thresholding.
SMC analysis reveals key transient effects in macroeconomic ABM.
problem Analysis of complex ABMs is challenging and often relies on ad hoc methods.
method Statistical model checking (SMC) implemented through MultiVeStA.
result Clear contrast across parameter families in macro-financial and structural sweeps.
Improved TD learning reduces batch sampling error.
problem TD learning can be inaccurate in batch settings due to action weighting.
method Introduced PSEC-TD(0) to correct action weighting using importance sampling.
result PSEC-TD(0) produces more accurate value function estimates.
Deep CNN predicts disruptions in fusion plasmas with high accuracy.
problem Predicting plasma events in fusion devices with multi-scale, multi-physics characteristics.
method Deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) with dilated convolutions trained on ECEi diagnostic data.
result Deep CNN achieves an F1-score of ~91% on disruption prediction.
Framework quantifies financial NLP robustness under regime shifts.
problem Semantic and causal drift in financial news narratives.
method Four metrics: FCAS, PCS, TSV, NLICS.
result Transformer models are more affected by semantic drift.
New deep learning method predicts stock rankings better than existing models.
problem Predicting stock trends and prices with deep learning models.
method Tailored deep learning for stock ranking, capturing temporal and relational stock data.
result RSR method outperforms existing solutions, achieving high return ratios on NYSE and NASDAQ.
TSLANet improves time series models by capturing long-term and short-term interactions.
problem Noise sensitivity, computational efficiency, and overfitting in Transformer-based models for time series data.
method Adaptive Spectral Block and Interactive Convolution Block for robust feature representation and noise mitigation.
result TSLANet outperforms state-of-the-art models in various time series tasks.