A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
FinHEAR combines LLMs with human expertise for better financial decision-making.
Develops models for temporally abstract reasoning and attention.
TRR detects stock portfolio crashes by simulating human reasoning.
LLMs detect market patterns through causal reasoning, not just temporal association.
TOQ-Nets learn to recognize complex temporal events with varying objects and sequences.
New method explains anomalies in multivariate time series data.
Interpretability has arisen as a key desideratum of machine learning models alongside performance. Approaches so far have been primarily concerned with fixed dimensional inputs emphasizing feature relevance or selection. In contrast, we focus on temporal modeling and the problem of tailoring the predictor, functionally…
CaT-GNN improves credit card fraud detection by integrating causal reasoning into GNNs.
GAttNHP predicts future events in temporal knowledge graphs by encoding long-range dependencies and handling mutual excitation.
Knowledge graph reasoning is a critical task in natural language processing. The task becomes more challenging on temporal knowledge graphs, where each fact is associated with a timestamp. Most existing methods focus on reasoning at past timestamps and they are not able to predict facts happening in the future. This pa…
Spatio-temporal data and processes are prevalent across a wide variety of scientific disciplines. These processes are often characterized by nonlinear time dynamics that include interactions across multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability. The data sets associated with many of these processes are increasing …
Model improves mortgage credit risk prediction with spatio-temporal machine learning.
Zero-shot understanding of accidents from surveillance videos using vision-language models
Customer temporal behavioral data was represented as images in order to perform churn prediction by leveraging deep learning architectures prominent in image classification. Supervised learning was performed on labeled data of over 6 million customers using deep convolutional neural networks, which achieved an AUC of 0…
New model predicts energy prices under different scenarios.
Memory-based neural networks model temporal data by leveraging an ability to remember information for long periods. It is unclear, however, whether they also have an ability to perform complex relational reasoning with the information they remember. Here, we first confirm our intuitions that standard memory architectur…
IETNet identifies important channels for MVTS classification.
Reasoning about graphs evolving over time is a challenging concept in many domains, such as bioinformatics, physics, and social networks. We consider a common case in which edges can be short term interactions (e.g., messaging) or long term structural connections (e.g., friendship). In practice, long term edges are oft…
ExNODE uses ODE to model sets with permutation equivariance.
TD-Flow improves long-term predictions in agent learning.
Agents compose pre-trained policies for complex tasks, improving zero-shot performance.
Unified model learns concepts across domains like left and right.
A2MT learns agents to select which modalities to acquire at test time.
FinReflectKG benchmarks financial QA by linking relevant context from a financial KG, improving model performance and efficiency.
Paper uses LLMs for financial forecasting, overcoming sequence reasoning and multi-modal challenges.
DAM with MRL improves relational reasoning in MANNs.
Detecting the intention of drivers is an essential task in self-driving, necessary to anticipate sudden events like lane changes and stops. Turn signals and emergency flashers communicate such intentions, providing seconds of potentially critical reaction time. In this paper, we propose to detect these signals in video…
Study uncovers uncertainty in traffic prediction models across cities.
In many fields observations are performed irregularly along time, due to either measurement limitations or lack of a constant immanent rate. While discrete-time Markov models (as Dynamic Bayesian Networks) introduce either inefficient computation or an information loss to reasoning about such processes, continuous-time…
FLUID-LLM uses LLMs to predict fluid dynamics with improved accuracy.
Despite its potential to improve sample complexity versus model-free approaches, model-based reinforcement learning can fail catastrophically if the model is inaccurate. An algorithm should ideally be able to trust an imperfect model over a reasonably long planning horizon, and only rely on model-free updates when the …
PMP extends GNNs to handle past states efficiently.
It is a known fact that training recurrent neural networks for tasks that have long term dependencies is challenging. One of the main reasons is the vanishing or exploding gradient problem, which prevents gradient information from propagating to early layers. In this paper we propose a simple recurrent architecture, th…
Recent results in coupled or temporal graphical models offer schemes for estimating the relationship structure between features when the data come from related (but distinct) longitudinal sources. A novel application of these ideas is for analyzing group-level differences, i.e., in identifying if trends of estimated ob…
Look-Ahead-Bench evaluates financial LLMs for lookahead bias, revealing significant differences in model performance.
Critical incident stages identification and reasonable prediction of traffic incident duration are essential in traffic incident management. In this paper, we propose a traffic incident duration prediction model that simultaneously predicts the impact of the traffic incidents and identifies the critical groups of tempo…
A deep learning model, named IITNet, is proposed to learn intra- and inter-epoch temporal contexts from raw single-channel EEG for automatic sleep scoring. To classify the sleep stage from half-minute EEG, called an epoch, sleep experts investigate sleep-related events and consider the transition rules between the foun…
Solving complex, temporally-extended tasks is a long-standing problem in reinforcement learning (RL). We hypothesize that one critical element of solving such problems is the notion of compositionality. With the ability to learn concepts and sub-skills that can be composed to solve longer tasks, i.e. hierarchical RL, w…
Decision-makers are faced with the challenge of estimating what is likely to happen when they take an action. For instance, if I choose not to treat this patient, are they likely to die? Practitioners commonly use supervised learning algorithms to fit predictive models that help decision-makers reason about likely futu…
One of the main obstacles to broad application of reinforcement learning methods is the parameter sensitivity of our core learning algorithms. In many large-scale applications, online computation and function approximation represent key strategies in scaling up reinforcement learning algorithms. In this setting, we hav…
For the last few years, the amount of data has significantly increased in the companies. It is the reason why data analysis methods have to evolve to meet new demands. In this article, we introduce a practical analysis of a large database from a telecommunication operator. The problem is to segment a territory and char…
Many different classification tasks need to manage structured data, which are usually modeled as graphs. Moreover, these graphs can be dynamic, meaning that the vertices/edges of each graph may change during time. Our goal is to jointly exploit structured data and temporal information through the use of a neural networ…
Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J.James, Quantitative finance 3 (2003) C75-C77]. We analyze the local trends which are of the main focus of the t…
Automatic detection of anomalies in space- and time-varying measurements is an important tool in several fields, e.g., fraud detection, climate analysis, or healthcare monitoring. We present an algorithm for detecting anomalous regions in multivariate spatio-temporal time-series, which allows for spotting the interesti…
CREDIT learns to master pair trading with risk-aware RL, outperforming existing methods.
ResCP uses reservoir computing to create efficient, scalable time series prediction intervals.
Novel approach to learning models based on subjective timescales for better exploration and decision-making.
Transformers simplify modeling of small longitudinal cohort data by reducing parameters and incorporating attention mechanisms.