New method corrects least-squares temporal difference for better lambda-return estimation.
problem Improving lambda-return estimation in reinforcement learning.
method Uncorrected least-squares temporal difference with a correction method.
result Enhanced accuracy in temporal difference learning.
Temporal difference learning explained through gradient splitting, improving convergence times.
problem Learning value functions in Markov Decision Processes with linear approximations.
method Interpreting TD learning as gradient splitting and applying convergence proofs from gradient descent.
result Improved convergence times for TD learning, especially with a minor variation.
Networks are a fundamental tool for modeling complex systems in a variety of domains including social and communication networks as well as biology and neuroscience. Small subgraph patterns in networks, called network motifs, are crucial to understanding the structure and function of these systems. However, the role of…
Proposes a method to enhance exploration in RL using temporal difference uncertainties.
problem Challenges in estimating uncertainty in non-tabular reinforcement learning settings.
method Estimates uncertainty over value function using temporal difference errors and incorporates it as an intrinsic reward.
result Demonstrates improved exploration in various tasks, including Deep Sea and Atari 2600 environments.
ST-SAN predicts flow with spatial-temporal dependencies using self-attention.
problem Challenges in predicting flow due to spatial-temporal dependencies.
method Spatial-Temporal Self-Attention Network (ST-SAN) that addresses temporal and spatial dependencies.
result Significant improvement in flow prediction accuracy (9% in inflow, 4% in outflow) compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Finite element method applied to Leland's model for option pricing with transaction costs.
problem Option pricing with transaction costs using Leland's model.
method Spatial finite element models based on P1 and/or P2 elements combined with a Crank-Nicolson-type temporal scheme.
result Results compare favorably with finite difference methods in the literature.
New methods improve temporal difference learning for policy evaluation in Markov decision processes.
problem Improving temporal difference learning for policy evaluation in Markov decision processes.
method Introduced variance-reduced forms of stochastic approximation to achieve non-asymptotic, instance-dependent optimality.
result Temporal difference learning is strictly suboptimal, but variance-reduced forms achieve optimality up to logarithmic factors.
Improved incremental sequence classification with temporal consistency.
problem Updating predictions as new sequence elements are revealed.
method Temporal-difference learning and a temporal-consistency condition for successive predictions.
result Optimizing a novel loss function improves data efficiency and predictive accuracy.
Paper tackles temporal overfitting in wind power curve modeling.
problem Temporal overfitting in wind power curve modeling.
method Proposes a Gaussian process-based method to partition and model time-invariant and time-varying components.
result Significant improvement in predicting responses for different time periods.
TD-Flow improves long-term predictions in agent learning.
problem Cumulative errors in step-by-step inference of future states.
method Leverages flow-matching techniques and a novel Bellman equation to learn accurate geometric horizon models.
result Significantly reduces errors at long horizons compared to prior methods.
MRIF models dynamic user interests at multiple temporal-ranges.
problem Capturing dynamic and multi-resolution user interests in recommendation.
method Multi-resolution Interest Fusion (MRIF) model that considers both temporal-ranges and drifts in user interests.
result MRIF outperforms state-of-the-art recommendation methods consistently.
A method for fast, accurate cross-temporal forecasts using machine learning.
problem Inconsistent forecasts across different levels of platform data.
method Non-linear hierarchical forecast reconciliation using machine learning.
result Automated direct production of reconciled forecasts for high-frequency decision making.
Combines CNN and LSTM for spatio-temporal graph networks.
problem Improving spatio-temporal feature extraction.
method Proposes a new architecture combining CNN and LSTM temporal blocks.
result Empirical comparison shows our model outperforms existing models.
Temporal mixture ensemble predicts cryptocurrency exchange volumes better than traditional methods.
problem Intraday volume forecasting in cryptocurrency markets.
method Temporal mixture ensemble model using transaction and order book data.
result The model outperforms traditional time series and machine learning methods.
TD learning reduces prediction error in Markov chain problems.
problem Estimating value functions in Markov chains with temporal inconsistency.
method Temporal difference learning minimizes temporal inconsistency between successive estimates.
result TD learning can significantly reduce mean-squared error in value estimates.
Many real-world graphs or networks are temporal, e.g., in a social network persons only interact at specific points in time. This information directs dissemination processes on the network, such as the spread of rumors, fake news, or diseases. However, the current state-of-the-art methods for supervised graph classific…
In this work, we present a method for node embedding in temporal graphs. We propose an algorithm that learns the evolution of a temporal graph's nodes and edges over time and incorporates this dynamics in a temporal node embedding framework for different graph prediction tasks. We present a joint loss function that cre…
Paper introduces a new reinforcement learning method with improved performance.
problem Designing and analyzing efficient reinforcement learning algorithms.
method Proximal gradient temporal difference learning (GTD) with accelerated algorithm GTD2-MP.
result GTD algorithms have linear complexity and improved convergence rate.
Unified framework for PE and TD methods in continuous time and space.
problem Policy evaluation and TD learning in continuous settings.
method Martingale characterization for designing PE algorithms.
result Convergent time-discretized algorithms converge to continuous-time counterparts.
Understanding temporal dynamics has proved to be highly valuable for accurate recommendation. Sequential recommenders have been successful in modeling the dynamics of users and items over time. However, while different model architectures excel at capturing various temporal ranges or dynamics, distinct application cont…
This paper challenges the conventional wisdom about temporal difference learning's superiority in stitching experience.
problem The effectiveness of temporal difference learning in stitching experience across different reinforcement learning methods.
method Empirical study comparing Monte Carlo and temporal difference learning methods in stitching experience.
result Monte Carlo methods can also achieve experience stitching, challenging the conventional wisdom.
In this article, we propose a novel ECG classification framework for atrial fibrillation (AF) detection using spectro-temporal representation (i.e., time varying spectrum) and deep convolutional networks. In the first step we use a Bayesian spectro-temporal representation based on the estimation of time-varying coeffic…
Multi-step temporal difference (TD) learning is an important approach in reinforcement learning, as it unifies one-step TD learning with Monte Carlo methods in a way where intermediate algorithms can outperform either extreme. They address a bias-variance trade off between reliance on current estimates, which could be …
One of the main obstacles to broad application of reinforcement learning methods is the parameter sensitivity of our core learning algorithms. In many large-scale applications, online computation and function approximation represent key strategies in scaling up reinforcement learning algorithms. In this setting, we hav…
Temporal difference learning and Residual Gradient methods are the most widely used temporal difference based learning algorithms; however, it has been shown that none of their objective functions is optimal w.r.t approximating the true value function V. Two novel algorithms are proposed to approximate the true value…
New method uses conformal prediction for time series forecasting, accounting for temporal correlation.
problem Uncertainty quantification in temporally correlated time series data.
method Time series decomposition with component-wise conformal prediction.
result The method provides customized prediction intervals for different temporal components.
Quantile TD learning outperforms classical TD learning for value estimation.
problem Temporal-difference learning in reinforcement learning.
method Quantile Temporal-Difference Learning (QTD) for policy evaluation.
result QTD offers superior performance to classical TD learning, even in tabular settings.
Paper improves TD learning algorithm bounds with linear approx.
problem Sharp bounds for TD method performance in MDPs.
method Polyak-Ruppert averaging, universal step size, refined error bounds, stability of random matrices.
result Near-optimal variance and bias terms achieved.
Estimates time-varying network connections using multi-stage smoothing.
problem Estimating edge probabilities of time-varying networks.
method Multi-stage smoothing: temporal local smoothing followed by node-domain smoothing.
result Captures both smooth temporal evolution and structural patterns in connectivity.
Recent studies have demonstrated the power of recurrent neural networks for machine translation, image captioning and speech recognition. For the task of capturing temporal structure in video, however, there still remain numerous open research questions. Current research suggests using a simple temporal feature pooling…
New method uses neural networks to forecast spatial-temporal data.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of spatio-temporal data with causal structure.
method MMAF-guided learning with ensemble of stochastic feed-forward neural networks.
result Forecasting remains calibrated across multiple time horizons.
Meta-learning adjusts TD learning's eligibility trace parameter for more efficient reinforcement learning.
problem Efficiently tuning the eligibility trace parameter for temporal difference learning.
method Meta-learning method to adjust eligibility trace parameter state-dependently.
result Improves overall quality of update targets, minimizing target error.
New algorithms improve reinforcement learning stability and performance.
problem Stability issues in TD learning algorithms with function approximation and off-policy sampling.
method Developed and adapted emphatic temporal difference (ETD(λ)) algorithms for deep reinforcement learning. result Demonstrated improved performance in Atari games and small problems.
The paper tackles model-based RL's inaccuracy issue by dynamically adjusting planning horizons.
problem Model-based RL's failure due to model inaccuracy over long planning horizons.
method State-dependent planning horizon, learning cumulative model errors with Temporal Difference methods.
result The proposed method successfully adapts planning horizons to state-dependent model accuracy, improving policy learning efficiency.
New method uses MMAF-guided learning for spatio-temporal probabilistic forecasts.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of spatio-temporal data with causal structure.
method Generalized Bayesian methodology, MMAF-guided learning, ensemble of stochastic feed-forward neural networks.
result Forecast performance comparable to, and sometimes better than, deep learning architectures.
In kernel methods, temporal information on the data is commonly included by using time-delayed embeddings as inputs. Recently, an alternative formulation was proposed by defining a gamma-filter explicitly in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, giving rise to a complex model where multiple kernels operate on different t…
A new correction term improves sample efficiency in deep reinforcement learning.
problem Momentum accumulation in TD learning leads to doubly stale gradients.
method Proposed a correction term to address the issue of doubly stale gradients.
result Improves sample efficiency in policy evaluation.
Enhances speech emotion recognition by adapting to varying time scales.
problem Robust emotion recognition from speech audio with temporal variations.
method Introduces multi-time-scale (MTS) convolutional layers to CNNs.
result MTS layers improve generalization, especially on smaller datasets.
The paper solves a complex option pricing model using finite elements.
problem Risk-Adjusted Pricing Methodology (RAPM) Black-Scholes model with transaction costs.
method Spatial finite element models based on P1 and/or P2 elements, combined with a Crank-Nicolson-type temporal scheme.
result Results compare favorably with finite difference methods in the literature.
Study uses online bootstrap for RL inference, showing effectiveness.
problem Statistical inference for RL parameters in online settings.
method Online bootstrap method applied to TD and GTD algorithms in RL.
result Method is distributionally consistent for policy evaluation inference.
Temporal-difference and Q-learning learn feature representations that converge to optimal ones.
problem Understanding how feature representations evolve in temporal-difference and Q-learning with neural networks.
method Mean-field theory applied to overparameterized two-layer neural networks.
result The feature representation converges to the optimal one, generalizing previous results.
Model predicts travel time under rare conditions using a vector-space model.
problem Predicting travel time under rare temporal conditions (e.g., holidays, school vacations) is challenging due to limited historical data and other temporal changes.
method Presented a vector-space model for encoding rare temporal conditions, allowing coherent representation learning across different conditions.
result Increased performance for travel time prediction over different baselines when using the vector-space encoding for representing the temporal setting.
Accelerates TD learning for long-horizon reinforcement learning problems.
problem Slow convergence of conventional TD learning in long-horizon tasks.
method Introduces PID Accelerated Temporal Difference (PID TD) learning algorithms.
result Accelerates convergence of TD learning compared to conventional methods.
Proposes Deep LTMLE for estimating dynamic treatment effects in longitudinal studies.
problem Estimating counterfactual mean outcomes under dynamic treatment policies in longitudinal settings.
method Uses a transformer architecture with temporal-difference learning for initial estimation, followed by TMLE correction and statistical inference.
result Demonstrates superior performance in complex, long-term scenarios compared to existing methods.
HopCPT improves conformal prediction for time series with temporal dependencies.
problem Uncertainty quantification in time series data.
method HopCPT, a novel conformal prediction approach for time series that leverages temporal dependencies.
result HopCPT outperforms state-of-the-art methods on multiple real-world time series datasets.
Temporal-difference (TD) networks are a class of predictive state representations that use well-established TD methods to learn models of partially observable dynamical systems. Previous research with TD networks has dealt only with dynamical systems with finite sets of observations and actions. We present an algorithm…
Novel bounds improve TD learning consistency in RL.
problem Analyzing Temporal Difference learning's performance.
method High-dimensional concentration inequalities and Berry-Esseen bounds for Markov chain induced martingales.
result Sharp high-probability consistency guarantee for TD learning, matching asymptotic variance up to logarithmic factors.
Paper introduces an unsupervised tensor-based anomaly detection method for spatiotemporal data.
problem Challenges in detecting anomalies in spatiotemporal data, especially in urban traffic monitoring and medical imaging.
method Formulates anomaly detection as a regularized robust low-rank + sparse tensor decomposition, incorporating spatiotemporal smoothness and local dependencies.
result Demonstrates improved anomaly detection performance on both synthetic and real data.