A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Framework isolates causal effects from time series data, improving accuracy under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.
problem Causal inference in non-stationary, autocorrelated time series data.
method Decomposes time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components; performs component-specific causal analysis.
result Framework more accurately recovers ground-truth causal structure than state-of-the-art baselines, especially under strong non-stationarity and temporal autocorrelation.
SHARE predicts city-wide parking availability using a hierarchical graph neural network.
problem Predicting city-wide parking availability is challenging due to spatial and temporal autocorrelation.
method SHARE uses a hierarchical graph convolution structure with contextual and soft clustering blocks, a recurrent neural network, and a parking availability approximation module.
result SHARE outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in predicting city-wide parking availability.
We present an original and novel method based on random matrix approach that enables to distinguish the respective role of temporal autocorrelations inside given time series and cross correlations between various time series. The proposed algorithm is based on properties of Wigner eigenspectrum of random matrices inste…
Motivated by electricity consumption metering, we extend existing nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithms to use linear measurements as observations, instead of matrix entries. The objective is to estimate multiple time series at a fine temporal scale from temporal aggregates measured on each individual serie…
As one of the important functions of the intelligent transportation system (ITS), supply-demand prediction for autonomous vehicles provides a decision basis for its control. In this paper, we present two prediction models (i.e. ARLP model and Advanced ARLP model) based on two system environments that only the current d…
We study the temporal evolution of the market efficiency in the stock markets using the complexity, entropy density, standard deviation, autocorrelation function, and probability distribution of the log return for Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500), Nikkei stock average index, and Korean composition stock price index (K…
We propose an artificial market model based on deterministic agents. The agents modify their ask/bid price depending on past price changes. The temporal development of market price fluctuations is calculated numerically. A probability density function of market price changes has power law tails. Autocorrelation coeffic…
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
problem Understanding effective default correlation in corporate defaults.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths, applied to corporate default-count data.
result Temporal coarse-graining provides a scale-consistent baseline that improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
We review ideas on temporal dependences and recurrences in discrete time series from several areas of natural and social sciences. We revisit existing studies and redefine the relevant observables in the language of copulas (joint laws of the ranks). We propose that copulas provide an appropriate mathematical framework…
problem Inaccurate separation of sources with temporal autocorrelations and mixed spectra.
method Estimates spectral density functions and line spectra using cubic splines and indicator functions, then maximizes the Whittle likelihood function.
result Outperforms existing ICA methods in simulations and EEG data applications.
The paper examines how market trade values and volumes affect price autocorrelation.
problem Understanding the impact of market trade values and volumes on price autocorrelation.
method Derives the dependence of price statistical moments and volatility on trade values and volumes, and assesses statistical moments and correlations by conventional frequency-based probabilities.
result Highlights the impact of market trade randomness on price statistical moments and autocorrelation.
Growth-optimal portfolios are guaranteed to accumulate higher wealth than any other investment strategy in the long run. However, they tend to be risky in the short term. For serially uncorrelated markets, similar portfolios with more robust guarantees have been recently proposed. This paper extends these robust portfo…
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in productivity (product per worker), at economic sectors level of the NUTs III of mainland Portugal, from 1995 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2005 (taking in count the data availability and the Portuguese and European context), c…
Session-based Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are gaining increasing popularity for recommendation task, due to the high autocorrelation of user's behavior on the latest session and the effectiveness of RNN to capture the sequence order information. However, most existing session-based RNN recommender systems still so…
Modeling financial time series by stochastic processes is a challenging task and a central area of research in financial mathematics. As an alternative, we introduce Quant GANs, a data-driven model which is inspired by the recent success of generative adversarial networks (GANs). Quant GANs consist of a generator and d…
Optimizes portfolio with two controls to minimize trades and maintain signal integrity.
problem Optimizing a single-asset portfolio with transaction costs and signal autocorrelation.
method Formulated an optimization problem to minimize trades while maintaining signal integrity and achieving maximum return.
result Locally optimal solution minimizes trades and achieves maximum return, with a quantifiable improvement based on threshold and autocorrelation removed.
The correlation matrix formalism is used to study temporal aspects of the stock market evolution. This formalism allows to decompose the financial dynamics into noise as well as into some coherent repeatable intraday structures. The present study is based on the high-frequency Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) data over the t…
As deep Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) frameworks become more widely used for modeling biomolecular simulation data, we emphasize the capability of the VAE architecture to concurrently maximize the timescale of the latent space while inferring a reduced coordinate, which assists in finding slow processes as according t…
Based on 1-minute price changes recorded since year 2012, the fluctuation properties of the rapidly-emerging Bitcoin (BTC) market are assessed over chosen sub-periods, in terms of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst exponents and multiscaling effects. The findings are compared to the stylized facts …