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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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121242363484 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for temperature estimation

Study shows sample complexity for logistic regression with normal covariates.

problem Estimating parameters of logistic regression with normal design.
method Analyzes sample complexity in terms of dimension and inverse temperature.
result Shows two change-points in sample complexity curve based on inverse temperature.

Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar orbiting weather satellites. We derive two novel algorithms for computation that …

2018-05-18abs ↗pdf ↗

New method estimates Nishimori temperature for node classification in weighted graphs.

problem Estimating Nishimori temperature for Bayesian inference.
method Spectral method using eigenvalues of Bethe Hessian matrix.
result Spectral method outperforms existing approaches in node classification.

A new method selects optimal temperature for Bayesian Deep Learning.

problem Finding the optimal temperature for improving predictive performance in Bayesian Deep Learning.
method Data-driven approach to estimate temperature as a model parameter.
result Our method performs comparably to grid search but at a fraction of the cost.

A new sampler and temperature estimation method enable efficient learning of Boltzmann Machines.

problem Efficient learning of Boltzmann Machines (BMs) is challenging due to high training costs and difficulty in parallelization.
method Proposed a new Boltzmann sampler (Langevin SB, LSB) and an efficient method (Conditional Expectation Matching, CEM) for estimating inverse temperature.
result Established an efficient learning framework (Sampler-Adaptive Learning, SAL) for BMs with greater expressive power than Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs).

Researchers use Gaussian Process Regression to improve accuracy of a low-cost hot-wire anemometer.

problem Improving accuracy of low-cost hot-wire anemometers in varying temperatures.
method Probabilistic calibration using Gaussian Process Regression.
result The method provides good performance in estimating actual wind speeds, including uncertainty.

AEW estimator achieves optimal risk in expectation for large enough temperatures.

problem Understanding minimax-rate optimality of AEW estimator in model selection aggregation.
method Analyzing AEW estimator with exponential weights for squared loss under random design.
result AEW achieves excess risk Tlog(M)/(n+1)T \log (M) / (n+1) in expectation for large enough temperatures.

TemperatureGAN generates hourly atmospheric temperature data with high fidelity.

problem Generating accurate hourly atmospheric temperature data for climate risk assessment.
method Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) conditioned on months, locations, and time periods.
result TemperatureGAN produces high-fidelity hourly atmospheric temperature data with good spatial and temporal consistency.

Partition functions of probability distributions are important quantities for model evaluation and comparisons. We present a new method to compute partition functions of complex and multimodal distributions. Such distributions are often sampled using simulated tempering, which augments the target space with an auxiliar…

2016-03-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning and deep learning infer surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data.

problem Inferring surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data with high temporal resolution.
method Application of machine learning and deep learning algorithms to infer surface/groundwater exchange flux from subsurface temperature observations.
result DL methods outperform ML methods in interpreting noisy temperature data, especially with a smoothing filter.

Estimates inverse temperature of Ising models with a single sample.

problem Estimating inverse temperature in truncated Ising models with hard constraints.
method Maximizing pseudolikelihood to estimate the inverse temperature.
result An estimator that is nearly O(n)O(n) time and O(Δ3/n)O(Δ^3/\sqrt{n})-consistent.

New method uses neural networks to efficiently approximate Bayesian inference for complex models.

problem Efficiently approximating Bayesian inference for complex models with varying temperatures.
method Fully amortized neural posterior estimator trained on a single forward pass.
result Achieves competitive posterior approximations across various temperatures and benchmarks.

Weather is a key production factor in agricultural crop production and at the same time the most significant and least controllable source of peril in agriculture. These effects of weather on agricultural crop production have triggered a widespread support for weather derivatives as a means of mitigating the risk assoc…

2018-08-13abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper models quanto weather and energy derivatives using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and develops methods to hedge them.

problem Valuation and hedging of quanto derivatives on temperature and electricity.
method Developed a coupled model using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and Conditional Least Square method for parameter estimation.
result Explicit and semi-explicit formulas for quanto options and hedging strategies are derived.

GE-autoencoder identifies spontaneous symmetry breaking in systems.

problem Locating phase boundaries and identifying spontaneously broken symmetries in systems.
method Group-equivariant autoencoder using group theory to constrain parameters and learn invariant order parameters.
result GE-autoencoder accurately determines spontaneous symmetry breaking and estimates critical temperatures more efficiently.

Temperature scaling improves model uncertainty but not diversity in LLMs.

problem Improving the calibration and stochasticity of probabilistic models.
method Investigates theoretical properties of temperature scaling in classification and LLMs.
result Temperature scaling increases model uncertainty but not diversity in LLMs.

Study local sensitivity of HDD and CDD temperature derivatives prices.

problem Understanding how temperature derivatives prices change with small temperature changes.
method Analyzes sensitivity of HDD and CDD futures and options prices to temperature perturbations using a CAR process.
result Identifies the order of the CAR process and its impact on temperature derivatives prices.

We introduce a temperature into the exponential function and replace the softmax output layer of neural nets by a high temperature generalization. Similarly, the logarithm in the log loss we use for training is replaced by a low temperature logarithm. By tuning the two temperatures we create loss functions that are non…

2019-06-08abs ↗pdf ↗

New adaptive temperature selection improves parallel tempering efficiency.

problem Enhancing mixing in multi-modal distributions using parallel tempering.
method Adaptive temperature selection using policy gradient approach.
result Lower integrated autocorrelation times achieved compared to traditional methods.

This paper measures temperature in agent systems using volatility.

problem How to measure temperature in agent systems.
method Examined an agent system with two decision options in a news environment, established the measurement equation, and outlined the concept of temperature measurement.
result Illustrated a strategy for influencing average opinion in competing subsystems.

Attention temperature improves robustness of ICL in high-dimensional settings.

problem ICL robustness failure under distribution shift in high dimensions.
method Analyzed a Transformer with approximate softmax attention, derived a closed-form error expression, and showed optimal temperature minimizes error.
result Optimal attention temperature minimizes ICL generalization error under distribution shift.

We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…

2016-03-04abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes extreme temperature forecasting using machine learning models.

problem Forecasting extreme temperatures in U.S. cities.
method Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Multilayer Perceptrons, Gaussian Processes.
result Multilayer Perceptrons were found to be the most effective approach for forecasting extreme temperatures.

The paper analyzes the InfoNCE loss under different temperature schedules using Langevin dynamics.

problem Understanding the dynamics of InfoNCE loss under fixed versus annealed temperature schedules.
method Modeling embedding evolution under Langevin dynamics on a compact Riemannian manifold, with theoretical guarantees for convergence.
result Slow logarithmic inverse-temperature schedules ensure convergence to globally optimal representations, while faster schedules risk suboptimal minima.

The Gibbs algorithm's generalization error is bounded, improving with prior volume in low temperatures.

problem Bounding the generalization error of the Gibbs algorithm in low temperature regimes.
method Analyzes the Gibbs algorithm's performance, extending known high-temperature bounds to low-temperature scenarios.
result With high probability, the generalization error decreases with the total prior volume of similar hypotheses.

Optimizes contrastive learning with individualized temperatures for better performance on imbalanced datasets.

problem The common practice of using a global temperature parameter ignores the varying semantic similarity across different anchor data.
method Proposes a new robust contrastive loss inspired by distributionally robust optimization (DRO) and an efficient stochastic algorithm for automatic temperature individualization.
result Our method automatically learns a suitable temperature for each sample, improving performance on imbalanced datasets.

New method calibrates classifier probabilities with guaranteed coverage.

problem Inaccurate probability estimates by classifiers in high-risk applications.
method Adaptive temperature scaling algorithm for conformal prediction.
result Improves calibration error measures and standard metrics across various tasks.

New method uses RBM flows to find critical temperatures in Ising models.

problem Detecting critical temperatures in RBM flows without model topology information.
method Iterative sampling from RBM mapped on Ising model temperature space using a neural network thermometer.
result Flow of RBM trained on Ising spin configurations approaches critical temperature around kBTc/J2.269k_B T_c / J \approx 2.269.

Winterization of Texas power system profitable but risky, estimated at $11.74bn over 30 years.

problem Profitability and risk of winterizing Texas power system infrastructure.
method Combined temperature-dependent load and outage estimates over 71 years of climate data.
result Large-scale winterization of gas infrastructure and power plants is profitable, but risks are high due to low-frequency of cold spells.

Algorithm learns Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model parameters at low temperatures.

problem Learning parameters of random graphical models at low temperatures.
method Multiplicative-weight update algorithm for polynomial time learning.
result Algorithm learns SK model parameters at βlognβ\leq \sqrt{\log n}.

The minute fluctuations of of S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices display Boltzmann statistics over a wide range of positive as well as negative returns, thus allowing us to define a {\em market temperature} for either sign. With increasing time the sharp Boltzmann peak broadens into a Gaussian whose volatility σ σ measure…

2006-09-23abs ↗pdf ↗

In the spirit of behavioral finance, we study the process of opinion formation among investors using a variant of the 2D Voter Model with a tunable social temperature. Further, a feedback acting on the temperature is introduced, such that social temperature reacts to market imbalances and thus becomes time dependent. I…

2012-12-19abs ↗pdf ↗

A spin model relating physical to financial variables is presented. This work is the first to introduce the concept of negative absolute temperature into stock market dynamics by establishing a rigorous formal analogy between physical and financial variables. Based on this model, an algorithm evaluating negative temper…

2012-06-06abs ↗pdf ↗

AdaAnn optimizes annealing for efficient probability density approximation.

problem Efficiently approximating complex probability distributions with multiple modes.
method AdaAnn is an adaptive annealing scheduler that adjusts temperature increments based on KL divergence.
result AdaAnn improves computational efficiency in variational inference and parameter estimation.

Improved logistic MoE with sigmoid gate shows better sample efficiency.

problem Improving sample efficiency in logistic MoE models.
method Comprehensive analysis of multinomial logistic MoE with modified sigmoid gate, incorporating temperature parameter and using Euclidean score.
result The sigmoid gate leads to lower sample complexity than softmax gate for both parameter and expert estimation.