A new method selects optimal temperature for Bayesian Deep Learning.
problem Finding the optimal temperature for improving predictive performance in Bayesian Deep Learning.
method Data-driven approach to estimate temperature as a model parameter.
result Our method performs comparably to grid search but at a fraction of the cost.
The paper analyzes extreme temperature forecasting using machine learning models.
problem Forecasting extreme temperatures in U.S. cities.
method Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Multilayer Perceptrons, Gaussian Processes.
result Multilayer Perceptrons were found to be the most effective approach for forecasting extreme temperatures.
Introduces bi-temperature logistic loss for more robust training.
problem Training neural nets with noise robustness.
method Introduces two temperatures into logistic loss and Bregman divergences.
result Training becomes more robust to noise with bi-temperature loss.
New adaptive temperature selection improves parallel tempering efficiency.
problem Enhancing mixing in multi-modal distributions using parallel tempering.
method Adaptive temperature selection using policy gradient approach.
result Lower integrated autocorrelation times achieved compared to traditional methods.
Replica exchange Langevin diffusion accelerates nonconvex optimization.
problem Nonconvex optimization challenges in machine learning.
method Replica exchange Langevin diffusion, discretization analysis.
result Replica exchange accelerates convergence to global minima.
A spin model relating physical to financial variables is presented. This work is the first to introduce the concept of negative absolute temperature into stock market dynamics by establishing a rigorous formal analogy between physical and financial variables. Based on this model, an algorithm evaluating negative temper…
Hyperfitting improves LLM generation quality by enhancing diversity, contrary to simple temperature scaling.
problem Improving open-ended generation quality of LLMs with minimal fine-tuning effort.
method Demonstrates that hyperfitting, a phenomenon where LLMs are fine-tuned to near-zero training loss, enhances generation quality and mitigates repetition.
result Hyperfitting is distinct from temperature scaling and involves a dynamic, context-dependent rank reordering mechanism in the final transformer block.
This paper calibrates uncertainty in dropout variational inference models.
problem Uncertainty in variational inference with dropout is poorly calibrated.
method Temperature scaling is extended to dropout variational inference.
result Temperature scaling reduces miscalibration of uncertainty.
In this paper, we propose a novel uniform generalization bound on the time and inverse temperature for stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) in a non-convex setting. While previous works derive their generalization bounds by uniform stability, we use Rademacher complexity to make our generalization bound indepen…
Optimizes contrastive learning with individualized temperatures for better performance on imbalanced datasets.
problem The common practice of using a global temperature parameter ignores the varying semantic similarity across different anchor data.
method Proposes a new robust contrastive loss inspired by distributionally robust optimization (DRO) and an efficient stochastic algorithm for automatic temperature individualization.
result Our method automatically learns a suitable temperature for each sample, improving performance on imbalanced datasets.
The cold posterior effect is explored through PAC-Bayes bounds for small sample sizes.
problem The cold posterior effect in approximate Bayesian inference for small datasets.
method Investigation through PAC-Bayes generalization bounds, focusing on temperature parameter λ.
result The temperature parameter λ in PAC-Bayes bounds captures the cold posterior effect.
Cold posteriors improve Bayesian neural networks by reducing overestimation of aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Overestimation of aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks.
method Tuning the temperature of the posterior on a validation set.
result Reducing temperature leads to better reflection of true prior beliefs.
Study compares machine learning algorithms for predicting SST in the Great Barrier Reef.
problem Predicting sea surface temperature in the Great Barrier Reef region.
method Ridge regression, LASSO, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms were evaluated.
result XGBoost significantly outperforms other algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy and Kullback-Leibler Divergence.
Investigates how extreme temperature events affect global equity portfolios.
problem Impact of extreme temperature events on global equity portfolios.
method Panel regression analysis and multi-objective portfolio optimization.
result Extreme temperature events negatively impact most sectors' returns.
Softmax temperature influences model representation rank and performance.
problem Understanding and optimizing softmax function's impact on model representations.
method Investigated softmax function's role in deep neural networks, introduced rank deficit bias.
result Softmax temperature affects model representation rank and can improve performance.
Weather is a key production factor in agricultural crop production and at the same time the most significant and least controllable source of peril in agriculture. These effects of weather on agricultural crop production have triggered a widespread support for weather derivatives as a means of mitigating the risk assoc…
We define a random-matrix ensemble given by the infinite-time covariance matrices of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes at different temperatures coupled by a Gaussian symmetric matrix. The spectral properties of this ensemble are shown to be in qualitative agreement with some stylized facts of financial markets. Through the…
PGA neural network improves uncertainty quantification in lake temperature modeling.
problem Quantifying uncertainties in lake temperature models while maintaining physical consistency.
method Integrates physical constraints into neural networks using Monte Carlo Dropout.
result Ensures better generalizability and physical consistency in MC estimates.
Bayesian neural networks use temperature adjustments to improve predictive performance.
problem Lack of theoretical generalization guarantees for Bayesian neural networks.
method Temperature adjustments to balance likelihood and prior regularization.
result Improved predictive performance through temperature adjustments.
Improved logistic MoE with sigmoid gate shows better sample efficiency.
problem Improving sample efficiency in logistic MoE models.
method Comprehensive analysis of multinomial logistic MoE with modified sigmoid gate, incorporating temperature parameter and using Euclidean score.
result The sigmoid gate leads to lower sample complexity than softmax gate for both parameter and expert estimation.
In a closed economic system, money is conserved. Thus, by analogy with energy, the equilibrium probability distribution of money must follow the exponential Gibbs law characterized by an effective temperature equal to the average amount of money per economic agent. We demonstrate how the Gibbs distribution emerges in c…
Weather derivatives help farmers hedge against crop yield risks.
problem High basis risks in weather derivatives pricing models.
method Machine learning ensemble technique to determine yield-weather relationships; mean-reverting model with local temperature dependence.
result Average temperature is the most significant weather variable affecting maize yield.
ABC method improves subseasonal weather forecasting by 60-90%.
problem Improving subseasonal temperature and precipitation forecasting accuracy.
method Combines dynamical forecasts with machine learning-based bias correction.
result Significant improvement in temperature and precipitation forecasting skills.
We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…
Enhances out-of-domain calibration of neural networks.
problem Improving calibration performance of deep neural networks in out-of-domain settings.
method Consistency-guided temperature scaling (CTS) that considers style and content consistency.
result Significantly enhances out-of-domain calibration performance.
Temperature scaling improves model uncertainty but not diversity in LLMs.
problem Improving the calibration and stochasticity of probabilistic models.
method Investigates theoretical properties of temperature scaling in classification and LLMs.
result Temperature scaling increases model uncertainty but not diversity in LLMs.
Introduce a thermodynamically informed, temperature-transferable MLCG framework for proteins.
problem Temperature transferability of MLCG models for proteins.
method Explicit decomposition of CG potential into energetic and entropic components.
result Reproduces temperature-dependent quantities like heat capacity.
TempBalance improves neural network training by balancing learning rates across layers.
problem Improving neural network training performance.
method Layer-wise learning rate scheduling based on HT-SR Theory.
result TempBalance significantly outperforms ordinary SGD and state-of-the-art optimizers.
Bayesian neural networks improve performance at finite temperature.
problem Improving generalization in neural network classifiers.
method Sampling from finite temperature distributions derived from the posterior.
result Optimal performance achieved at non-zero temperature values.
Study local sensitivity of HDD and CDD temperature derivatives prices.
problem Understanding how temperature derivatives prices change with small temperature changes.
method Analyzes sensitivity of HDD and CDD futures and options prices to temperature perturbations using a CAR process.
result Identifies the order of the CAR process and its impact on temperature derivatives prices.
Recently, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been achieving impressive results on wide range of tasks. However, they suffer from being well-calibrated. In decision-making applications, such as autonomous driving or medical diagnosing, the confidence of deep networks plays an important role to bring the trust and reliabil…
New method uses temperature to control sparse MoE convergence rates.
problem Sparse MoE convergence rates are slow due to temperature interactions.
method Proposes a novel activation gate to improve convergence rates.
result Improved convergence rates to polynomial rates via novel gate.
Improves overparameterized models' robustness to distribution shifts.
problem Accuracy drop on testing distributions different from training.
method Importance tempering to improve decision boundaries.
result State-of-the-art results on worst group classification tasks.
TS improves class coverage but reduces CP set size, offering a trade-off.
problem Combining temperature scaling with conformal prediction for deep classifiers.
method Empirical study and mathematical theory of TS's effect on CP.
result TS allows trading prediction set size and conditional coverage.
Climate volatility reduces economic growth, especially in poorer countries.
problem Impact of climate volatility on economic growth.
method Exploiting data on 133 countries over 59 years, controlling for temperature changes.
result A 1 degree C increase in temperature volatility leads to a 0.3% decline in GDP growth.
Method reveals dissimilarity in alloys' Curie temperatures.
problem Tackles the dissimilarity between rare-earth transition metal binary alloys.
method Ensemble learning with Kernel ridge regression.
result Reveals meaningful relations between alloys' structure and Curie temperature.
Logit-GFN accelerates GFlowNets training by scaling logits based on temperature.
problem Training temperature-conditional GFlowNets is numerically challenging.
method Logit-GFN uses a learned function of temperature to scale policy logits.
result Logit-GFN greatly accelerates GFlowNets training and improves generalization and mode discovery.
Method reduces model bias in water temperature prediction using physics-guided GNNs.
problem Model bias in traditional physics-based models across different income and education levels.
method Physics-guided GNNs with refined neighbor selection and weights.
result Preserves equitable performance across different sensitive groups in the Delaware River Basin.
This paper measures temperature in agent systems using volatility.
problem How to measure temperature in agent systems.
method Examined an agent system with two decision options in a news environment, established the measurement equation, and outlined the concept of temperature measurement.
result Illustrated a strategy for influencing average opinion in competing subsystems.
Attention temperature improves robustness of ICL in high-dimensional settings.
problem ICL robustness failure under distribution shift in high dimensions.
method Analyzed a Transformer with approximate softmax attention, derived a closed-form error expression, and showed optimal temperature minimizes error.
result Optimal attention temperature minimizes ICL generalization error under distribution shift.
Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar orbiting weather satellites. We derive two novel algorithms for computation that …
The paper analyzes the InfoNCE loss under different temperature schedules using Langevin dynamics.
problem Understanding the dynamics of InfoNCE loss under fixed versus annealed temperature schedules.
method Modeling embedding evolution under Langevin dynamics on a compact Riemannian manifold, with theoretical guarantees for convergence.
result Slow logarithmic inverse-temperature schedules ensure convergence to globally optimal representations, while faster schedules risk suboptimal minima.
The Gibbs algorithm's generalization error is bounded, improving with prior volume in low temperatures.
problem Bounding the generalization error of the Gibbs algorithm in low temperature regimes.
method Analyzes the Gibbs algorithm's performance, extending known high-temperature bounds to low-temperature scenarios.
result With high probability, the generalization error decreases with the total prior volume of similar hypotheses.
A model predicts how hyperparameters affect pruning performance.
problem Predicting the impact of hyperparameters on pruning performance.
method Phenomenological model using temperature-like and load-like parameters.
result A sharp transition phenomenon in pruning performance.
Improved gas demand forecasting using ensemble methods.
problem Short-term prediction of gas demand components.
method Nine base forecasters (Ridge Regression, GP, NN, ANN, Torus, LASSO, Elastic Net, RF, SVR) and four ensemble predictors (simple, weighted, subset, SVR aggregation) were evaluated.
result Ensemble predictors outperformed individual base forecasters and TSO predictions.
New method uses RBM flows to find critical temperatures in Ising models.
problem Detecting critical temperatures in RBM flows without model topology information.
method Iterative sampling from RBM mapped on Ising model temperature space using a neural network thermometer.
result Flow of RBM trained on Ising spin configurations approaches critical temperature around kBTc/J≈2.269. New method resolves nonidentifiability in mixture models.
problem Nonidentifiability in marginal models of mixture models.
method Introducing an effective temperature to generalize the marginal likelihood.
result Maximization of the generalized likelihood leads to unique results.
The paper prices weather contracts using a complex temperature model.
problem Accurate pricing of weather contracts under temperature dynamics.
method Time-changed Levy model with mean-reverting dynamics, Fourier expansion, Esscher transform.
result An accurate approximation of weather contract prices.