This paper presents a general theory that aims at explaining timescales observed empirically in technology transitions and predicting those of future transitions. This framework is used further to derive a theory for exploring the dynamics that underlie the complex phenomenon of irreversible and path dependent price or…
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48 results for “technological change”
Estimates yearly improvement rates for nearly all technologies using US patent data.
problem Providing a comprehensive account of technological change rates.
method Mapping patents to technology domains, calculating average centrality, and estimating improvement rates.
result Variation in improvement rates from 1.9% to 228.8% per year, with software-based domains often the fastest.
Technological change and innovation are vitally important, especially for high-tech companies. However, factors influencing their future research and development (R&D) trends are both complicated and various, leading it a quite difficult task to make technology tracing for high-tech companies. To this end, in this pape…
This paper explains tax policy for crypto assets in a rapidly evolving tech landscape.
problem Rapid technological changes in crypto assets create regulatory and tax policy blind spots.
method Explains principles of crypto assets, their technology, and tax issues.
result Tax policies are lagging behind innovation in blockchain and crypto.
Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progressphysics.soc-ph
Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumul…
Typical properties of large random economies with linear activitiescond-mat.stat-mech
We study the competitive equilibrium of large random economies with linear activities using methods of statistical mechanics. We focus on economies with commodities, firms, each running a randomly drawn linear technology, and one consumer. We derive, in the limit with fixed, a complete de…
At the heart of technology transitions lie complex processes of social and industrial dynamics. The quantitative study of sustainability transitions requires modelling work, which necessitates a theory of technology substitution. Many, if not most, contemporary modelling approaches for future technology pathways overlo…
Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. We study the effects of technology improvement in the setting of a production network, in which each producer buys input goods and converts them to other goods, selling the product to households or other producers. We show how this netw…
Revisiting the Black-Scholes equationcond-mat.stat-mech
In common finance literature, Black-Scholes partial differential equation of option pricing is usually derived with no-arbitrage principle. Considering an asset market, Merton applied the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman techniques of his continuous-time consumption-portfolio problem, deriving general equilibrium relationships …
The recent wave of AI and automation has been argued to differ from previous General Purpose Technologies (GPTs), in that it may lead to rapid change in occupations' underlying task requirements and persistent technological unemployment. In this paper, we apply a novel methodology of dynamic task shares to a large data…
We consider online detection strategies for identifying a change point in a stream of quantum particles allegedly prepared in identical states. We show that the identification of the change point can be done without error via sequential local measurements while attaining the optimal performance bound set by quantum mec…
Complexity, economic science and possible economic benefits of climate change mitigation policyphysics.soc-ph
Conventional economic analysis of stringent climate change mitigation policy generally concludes various levels of economic slowdown as a result of substantial spending on low carbon technology. Equilibrium economics however could not explain or predict the current economic crisis, which is of financial nature. Meanwhi…
We use technology from sutured manifold theory and the theory of Heegaard splittings to relate genus reducing crossing changes on knots in S^3 to twists on surfaces arising in circular Heegaard splittings for knot complements. In a separate paper, currently in preparation, we prove that these circular Heegaard splittin…
NFTs revolutionize art sales by providing proof of ownership.
problem Lack of provenance and authenticity in digital art.
method Analysis of major art NFT marketplaces.
result NFTs reduce the need for intermediaries in the art trade.
The paper explores how innovative financing solutions boost Moroccan businesses' performance.
problem Market volatility, ecological transitions, and technological change pose challenges to business sustainability.
method Examines innovative financing solutions like venture capital, green finance, crowdfunding, and blockchain.
result Embracing innovative financial strategies can transform business challenges into opportunities.
In an analysis of the US, the UK, and the German stock market we find a change in the behavior based on the stock's beta values. Before 2006 risky trades were concentrated on stocks in the IT and technology sector. Afterwards risky trading takes place for stocks from the financial sector. We show that an agent-based mo…
New framework predicts 5-year glucose values with missing data.
problem Significant missing data in longitudinal glucose studies.
method Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS) with missing responses analysis.
result Identifies new factors affecting long-term glucose evolution.
This work introduces a novel modified Replicator Dynamics model, which includes external influences on the population. This framework models a realistic market into which companies, the external dynamic influences, invest resources in order to bolster their product's standing and increase their market share. The dynami…
While artificial intelligence (AI) and other automation technologies might lead to enormous progress in healthcare, they may also have undesired consequences for people working in the field. In this interdisciplinary study, we capture empirical evidence of not only what healthcare work could be automated, but also what…
Ising-like agent-based technology diffusion model: adoption patterns vs. seeding strategiesphysics.soc-ph
The well-known Ising model used in statistical physics was adapted to a social dynamics context to simulate the adoption of a technological innovation. The model explicitly combines (a) an individual's perception of the advantages of an innovation and (b) social influence from members of the decision-maker's social net…
AI enhances bank credit risk management through deep learning and data analysis.
problem Inaccurate credit decisions and potential risks in bank credit risk management.
method Innovative application of AI technology, including deep learning and big data analysis.
result AI provides more accurate and comprehensive credit decision support, reducing risks and losses.
In this work we study an economic agent based model under different asymmetric information degrees. This model is quite simple and can be treated analytically since the buyers evaluate the quality of a certain good taking into account only the quality of the last good purchased plus her perceptive capacity β. As a cons…
Dematerialization is the reduction in the quantity of materials needed to produce something useful over time. Dematerialization fundamentally derives from ongoing increases in technical performance but it can be counteracted by demand rebound - increases in usage because of increased value (or decreased cost) that also…
Study uses ML and statistical models to analyze climate impacts of industrial growth.
problem Understanding and predicting environmental impacts of industrial activities.
method Comparative analysis of ML and statistical models on time series data.
result ML models outperform statistical models in predicting environmental impacts.
This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium thermodynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustai…
Causal Regime Detection in Energy Markets With Augmented Time Series Structural Causal Modelsq-fin.CP
New model predicts energy prices under different scenarios.
problem Complex causal relationships in energy markets with continuous regime changes.
method Augmented Time Series Structural Causal Models (ATSCM) integrating neural causal discovery.
result Enables novel counterfactual queries in energy markets.
Blockchain is a distributed database that keeps a chronologically-growing list (chain) of records (blocks) secure from tampering and revision. While computerisation has changed the nature of a ledger from clay tables in the old days to digital records in modern days, blockchain technology is the first true innovation i…
Given a finite sequence of graphs, e.g., coming from technological, biological, and social networks, the paper proposes a methodology to identify possible changes in stationarity in the stochastic process generating the graphs. In order to cover a large class of applications, we consider the general family of attribute…
Paper introduces a method to explain concept drift using counterfactual explanations.
problem Understanding the features where concept drift occurs for better model adjustment.
method Formal definition and algorithm based on counterfactual explanations.
result Demonstrates usefulness of the method in various examples.
AI enhances financial forecasting with challenges in regulation and privacy.
problem Challenges in integrating AI with financial services and regulations.
method Integration of AI technologies like deep learning and reinforcement learning.
result AI improves financial forecasting but faces regulatory and privacy issues.
Blockchain disrupts corporate finance, but challenges remain.
problem Challenges in adopting blockchain for corporate finance.
method Exploring the impact of blockchain on corporate finance valuation and capital allocation.
result Blockchain offers new perspectives but faces regulatory, environmental, and legal challenges.
This paper uses decolonial theory to improve AI's ethical development.
problem AI's risks to vulnerable peoples and negative impacts of innovation.
method Embedding decolonial critical approach in AI technical practice.
result Developing tactics to align AI with ethical principles.
We propose a new approach to the problem of optimizing autoencoders for lossy image compression. New media formats, changing hardware technology, as well as diverse requirements and content types create a need for compression algorithms which are more flexible than existing codecs. Autoencoders have the potential to ad…
Dividing deep learning models for consistent anomaly detection in changing log data.
problem Anomaly detection methods fail when log data types change, leading to false negatives.
method Divide deep learning models based on log data correlation and extract correlations.
result Continues anomaly detection accuracy even when log data changes.
Comparative Analysis of Technological Fitness and Coherence at different geographical scalesphysics.soc-ph
The paper analyzes tech specialization and diversification at various scales.
problem Trade-offs between specialization and diversification in economic development.
method Patent data and Economic Complexity framework.
result Technological Coherence positively impacts growth at metropolitan areas but negatively at larger scales.
The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone significant changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in operational risk environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks ve…
Risk in Network Economiesecon.GN
Network models assume unrealistic idiosyncratic risk, which can be mitigated by allowing for correlated shocks.
problem Network models assume idiosyncratic risk, which can be unrealistic and lead to incorrect predictions.
method Proposed a production-based asset pricing model to account for substitutability between trade partners and correlation in supply and demand shocks.
result Assets positively exposed to average propagation of upstream and downstream shocks earn lower average risk premia.
Bayesian method detects change points in time series data.
problem Detecting significant regime shifts in time series data.
method Bayesian autoregressive model with time-varying parameters.
result Enhanced estimate accuracy and forecasting power.
How technology affects growth or employment has long been debated. With a hiatus, the debate revived once again in the form of how Information and Communications Technology, as a form of new technology, exerts on productivity and employment. Information and Communications Technology perceived as General Purpose Technol…
Predicting one type of technological motion? A nonlinear map to study the 'sailing-ship' effectphysics.soc-ph
In this work we use a proven model to study a dynamic duopolistic competition between an old and a new technology which, through improved technical performance - e.g. data transmission capacity - fight in order to conquer market share. The process whereby an old technology fights a new one off through own improvements …
An Insurance-Led Response to Climate Changephysics.soc-ph
Climate change is widely expected to increase weather related damage and the insurance claims that result from it. This will increase insurance premiums, in a way that is independent of a customer's contribution to the causes of climate change. Insurance provides a financial mechanism that mitigates some of the consequ…
The notion of drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time. Albeit many attempts were made to deal with drift, formal notions of drift are application-dependent and formulated in various degrees of abstraction and mathematical coherence. In this contribu…
Quantum crypto-economics: Blockchain prediction markets for the evolution of quantum technologyq-fin.PR
Quantum crypto-economics models price risks in blockchain technology.
problem Quantum technology's potential to undermine blockchain security.
method Building financial models to price quantum risk in blockchain scenarios.
result Quantum crypto-economics models can assess and price quantum risks in blockchain.
This paper presents the Speech Technology Center (STC) replay attack detection systems proposed for Automatic Speaker Verification Spoofing and Countermeasures Challenge 2017. In this study we focused on comparison of different spoofing detection approaches. These were GMM based methods, high level features extraction …
The dynamic network of relationships among corporations underlies cascading economic failures including the current economic crisis, and can be inferred from correlations in market value fluctuations. We analyze the time dependence of the network of correlations to reveal the changing relationships among the financial,…
The purpose of this study is to estimate the production function and examine the structure of production in the mining sector of Iran. Several studies have already been conducted in estimating production functions of various economic sectors; however, less attention has been paid to mining sectors. After examining the …
GNN improves financial risk detection in dynamic networks.
problem Complex, changing financial networks make traditional risk identification methods ineffective.
method Graph Neural Networks (GNN) for embedded representation learning of financial data.
result GNN enhances the detection of hidden risks and abnormal behaviors in financial networks.
Which factor dominates the industry evolution? A synergy analysis based on China's ICT industryphysics.soc-ph
Industry evolution caused by various reasons, among which technology progress driving industry development has been approved, but with the new trend of industry convergence, inter-industry convergence also plays an increasing important role. This paper plans to probe the industry synergetic evolution mechanism based on…