Synthetic data can be used to ask more questions and accelerate discovery with provable validity guarantees.
problem Valid inference with synthetic data
method Task exchangeability
result Provable validity guarantees for synthetic data inference
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48 results for “task exchangeability”
New neural model processes 2D data with long-range dependencies efficiently.
problem Limited receptive field of convolutions for complex 2D tasks.
method Proposes Matrix Shuffle-Exchange network with layers and complexity.
result Exceeds convolutional and graph neural network baselines in long-range dependency modeling.
Unified framework for representation and causal structure learning using exchangeable data.
problem Identifying latent representations or causal structures in non-i.i.d. data.
method Identifiable Exchangeable Mechanisms (IEM) framework for representation and structure learning.
result New insights and identifiability results for causal structure and representation learning.
EBPs model exchangeable data with flexible distributions.
problem Current energy-based models restrict set cardinality and limited distribution forms.
method Introduced Energy-Based Processes (EBPs) that extend energy models to exchangeable data with neural network parameterizations.
result EBPs can express more flexible distributions over sets without cardinality restrictions.
Reciprocating interactions represent a central feature of all human exchanges. They have been the target of various recent experiments, with healthy participants and psychiatric populations engaging as dyads in multi-round exchanges such as a repeated trust task. Behaviour in such exchanges involves complexities relate…
Distributions over exchangeable matrices with infinitely many columns, such as the Indian buffet process, are useful in constructing nonparametric latent variable models. However, the distribution implied by such models over the number of features exhibited by each data point may be poorly- suited for many modeling tas…
Two methods are proposed to filter correlations in DCC-GARCH residuals for foreign exchange rates.
problem Filtering correlations in DCC-GARCH residuals for accurate foreign exchange rate prediction.
method Two approaches: estimating correlation matrix as a parameter and using eigenvalue decomposition.
result The DCC-GARCH residual can be almost independent using these methods.
A variety of machine learning tasks---e.g., matrix factorization, topic modelling, and feature allocation---can be viewed as learning the parameters of a probability distribution over bipartite graphs. Recently, a new class of models for networks, the sparse exchangeable graphs, have been introduced to resolve some imp…
Study uses exchangeable GPs for staggered-adoption policy evaluation in panel data.
problem Evaluating the impact of staggered treatments in panel data settings.
method Exchangeable multi-task Gaussian processes (GPs) with flexible kernels.
result Flexible tool for policy evaluation in panel data settings.
This thesis explores supervised classification methods using Bayesian and exchangeability theories.
problem Assigning objects into predefined classes using training data and auxiliary information.
method Bayesian inductive theories and exchangeabilities (de Finetti and partition exchangeability).
result Optimal classifiers for different scenarios of object features and categories.
New approaches improve uncertainty quantification in autoregressive models for sequence data.
problem Uncertainty quantification in autoregressive models for exchangeable sequences.
method Study of inferential and architectural biases for autoregressive models, focusing on multi-step inference.
result Custom architectures are necessary for multi-step inference to ensure exchangeability.
The study examines the balancedness of random partition models and finds the rich-get-richer characteristic is a result of model assumptions.
problem The balancedness of random partition models is largely neglected in the literature.
method Formulated a framework to define and study the balancedness of exchangeable random partition models, analyzed using product-form exchangeability and projectivity assumptions.
result The 'rich-get-richer' characteristic is an inevitable consequence of the model assumptions.
New algorithm speeds up MCMC for deep learning models.
problem Large biases in SGMCMC for big data.
method Adaptive replica exchange SGMCMC (reSGMCMC).
result Achieves state-of-the-art results on various datasets.
A fuzzy expert system selects stocks for BSE using AI techniques.
problem Selecting stocks for investment allocation is challenging due to many influencing factors.
method Dempster-Shafer (DS) evidence theory for rule base generation, portfolio optimization model with ACO algorithm.
result The model's performance is satisfactory for short-term investment.
Proposes r2SGLD for efficient constrained exploration in non-convex learning.
problem Stagnation in high-temperature chains of reSGLD in distribution tails.
method r2SGLD: replica exchange with reflection steps in a bounded domain.
result Reflection steps enhance mixing rates with quadratic improvement in domain diameter.
In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and Inflation targeting). The task of our study is to compare econometrically the perform…
New neural processes use stacked Markov operators to improve flexibility.
problem Improving flexibility in neural processes.
method Stacking neural parameterized Markov transition operators in function space.
result MNPs outperform baseline models on various tasks.
We present a novel model architecture which leverages deep learning tools to perform exact Bayesian inference on sets of high dimensional, complex observations. Our model is provably exchangeable, meaning that the joint distribution over observations is invariant under permutation: this property lies at the heart of Ba…
A new family of conformal test martingales based on Legendre polynomials for online exchangeability testing.
problem Detecting variance, skewness, and higher-order deviations from uniformity in online data.
method A family of conformal test martingales based on shifted Legendre polynomials.
result The Variational Legendre Jumper reduces exponential scaling to linear time with minimal loss in power.
We consider the fully decentralized machine learning scenario where many users with personal datasets collaborate to learn models through local peer-to-peer exchanges, without a central coordinator. We propose to train personalized models that leverage a collaboration graph describing the relationships between user per…
Paper introduces a new edge exchangeable block model for complex networks.
problem Limitations of the stochastic block model in analyzing complex networks.
method Develops a Bayesian nonparametric edge exchangeable block model.
result The new model outperforms state-of-the-art SBMs for link prediction.
Paper uses GNNs to efficiently detect profitable triangular arbitrage opportunities.
problem Detecting profitable triangular arbitrage opportunities in dynamic markets.
method Formulate the problem as a graph-based optimization task and use a GNN architecture to capture complex relationships.
result GNN-based method achieves higher average yield with reduced computational time compared to traditional methods.
Study improves forecasting in betting markets using novel neural networks.
problem Improving short-term price movement predictions in betting exchanges.
method Innovative convolutional attention mechanisms applied to recurrent neural networks and bi-dimensional layers.
result All proposed innovations positively impact classification task performance.
The exchange algorithm is studied for its convergence and asymptotic variance.
problem Theoretical limitations of the exchange algorithm in sampling from doubly-intractable distributions.
method Theoretical analysis of the exchange algorithm's convergence speed and asymptotic variance.
result The exchange algorithm converges at a geometric rate and satisfies a Central Limit Theorem.
Study on pricing American Exchange options using Lévy processes.
problem Pricing American Exchange options driven by Lévy processes.
method Represented American Exchange options as European options plus early exercise premium; studied properties of free boundary and provided an approximative formula.
result Developed an approximative formula for American Exchange options.
There is intense interest in understanding the stochastic and dynamical properties of the global Foreign Exchange (FX) market, whose daily transactions exceed one trillion US dollars. This is a formidable task since the FX market is characterized by a web of fluctuating exchange rates, with subtle inter-dependencies wh…
Optimal crypto order execution using cross-exchange signals.
problem Maximizing order execution efficiency in cryptocurrency markets.
method Reinforcement learning applied to cross-exchange data.
result Cross-exchange signals improve optimal execution outcomes.
A Likelihood-Free Inference Framework for Population Genetic Data using Exchangeable Neural Networkscs.LG
An explosion of high-throughput DNA sequencing in the past decade has led to a surge of interest in population-scale inference with whole-genome data. Recent work in population genetics has centered on designing inference methods for relatively simple model classes, and few scalable general-purpose inference techniques…
Study exchange option pricing with stochastic volatility and correlation.
problem Pricing exchange options under stochastic volatility and correlation.
method Approximation using a closed-form solution with Taylor expansion.
result Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Regional Inequality Simulations Based on Asset Exchange Models with Exchange Range and Local Support Biasphysics.soc-ph
New models reduce regional inequality by adjusting exchange range and asset distribution bias.
problem Reduction of regional inequality in economic systems.
method Proposed new asset exchange models with spatial exchange range and local support bias to adjust asset distribution and circulation rates.
result Achieved asset distribution from over-concentration to exponential and eventually normal, reducing Gini coefficient.
A known failing of many popular random graph models is that the Aldous-Hoover Theorem guarantees these graphs are dense with probability one; that is, the number of edges grows quadratically with the number of nodes. This behavior is considered unrealistic in observed graphs. We define a notion of edge exchangeability …
Exchanging gradients is a widely used method in modern multi-node machine learning system (e.g., distributed training, collaborative learning). For a long time, people believed that gradients are safe to share: i.e., the training data will not be leaked by gradient exchange. However, we show that it is possible to obta…
A zoo of deep nets is available these days for almost any given task, and it is increasingly unclear which net to start with when addressing a new task, or which net to use as an initialization for fine-tuning a new model. To address this issue, in this paper, we develop knowledge flow which moves 'knowledge' from mult…
LSCI provides locally adaptive prediction sets for operator models with tighter coverage.
problem Generating robust, calibrated uncertainty quantification for operator models.
method Local Sliced Conformal Inference (LSCI) for operator models.
result LSCI yields tighter prediction sets with stronger adaptivity compared to conformal baselines.
Wealth Distributions in Asset Exchange Modelsphysics.soc-ph
How do individuals accumulate wealth as they interact economically? We outline the consequences of a simple microscopic model in which repeated pairwise exchanges of assets between individuals build the wealth distribution of a population. This distribution is determined for generic exchange rules --- transactions that…
The team predicts foreign exchange rates using clustering and attention models.
problem Complexity and unexpected events in foreign exchange markets.
method Clustering and attention models applied to historical data.
result Improved event-driven price prediction for oversold scenarios.
Wealth Distributions in Models of Capital Exchangecond-mat.stat-mech
A dynamical model of capital exchange is introduced in which a specified amount of capital is exchanged between two individuals when they meet. The resulting time dependent wealth distributions are determined for a variety of exchange rules. For ``greedy'' exchange, an interaction between a rich and a poor individual r…
Study finds recurring patterns in cryptocurrency volatility and liquidity.
problem Recurring patterns in volatility and liquidity of major cryptocurrencies.
method Data from two centralized exchanges and a decentralized exchange analyzed for patterns.
result Systematic patterns in volatility and liquidity across different timeframes.
Representation of Exchange Option Prices under Stochastic Volatility Jump-Diffusion Dynamicsq-fin.MF
The article provides representations of exchange option prices under SVJD dynamics.
problem Modeling and pricing exchange options under stochastic volatility and jumps.
method Develops representations for European and American exchange options using SVJD dynamics and equivalent martingale measures.
result Derives integro-partial differential equations and representations for exchange option prices.
Paper proves conformal prediction works for any data distribution.
problem Quantifying risk in AI systems with non-exchangeable data.
method Developed a method to extend conformal prediction to any data distribution.
result Valid conformal prediction guarantees for any data distribution.
This paper introduces cluster exchange groupoids for Coxeter-Dynkin diagrams and finds their fundamental groups are braid groups.
problem Understanding the fundamental groups of cluster exchange groupoids for Coxeter-Dynkin diagrams.
method Introduced cluster exchange groupoids for Coxeter-Dynkin diagrams and showed the fundamental group isomorphic to braid groups.
result The fundamental group of the exchange groupoid for a Coxeter-Dynkin diagram is the braid group associated with the diagram.
We unify subsampling methods for network embeddings and prove their asymptotic distribution.
problem Understanding and improving the performance of network embeddings learned via subsampling.
method Unified framework for node2vec-like methods, proving asymptotic distribution under exchangeable graph assumption.
result Asymptotic distribution of learned embedding vectors decouples and provides rates of convergence.
Kalman Filter in the Problem of the Exchange and the Inflation Rates Adequacy To Determining Factorsq-fin.MF
Study finds relevance of exchange and inflation rates to economic factors.
problem Determining the relevance of exchange and inflation rates to economic factors.
method Introduced concept of adequacy, established positive relation between exchange and inflation rates and other economic factors.
result Close positive relation found between exchange and inflation rates and other economic factors.
Data-aware activation function customization reduces neural network error.
problem Current neural networks lack consideration for specific activation functions.
method Linear algebraic explanation and Diaconis-Shahshahani Approximation Theorem criteria for activation functions.
result Using an even activation function like seagull can reduce neural network error by orders of magnitude.
The article improves the display of acceptable exchange ratios for merging companies.
problem Determining feasible exchange ratios for merging companies.
method Exploits a diagrammatic approach to display the bargaining region.
result Shares face upper and lower bounds for acceptable exchange ratios.
Framework for systemic risk modeling using jointly exchangeable arrays.
problem Systemic risk in insurance portfolios with interactions.
method Jointly exchangeable arrays, central limit theorems, simulation-based validation.
result Asymptotic approximations for total portfolio losses in large portfolios over long time horizons.
Framework handles both exchangeable and non-exchangeable event sequences without tuning.
problem Handling both exchangeable and non-exchangeable event sequences efficiently.
method Parametric Hawkes-process-inspired conditional probability mass function with variational inference.
result Competitive computational and predictive performance against state-of-the-art methods.
IUS framework predicts EUR/USD exchange rate with improved accuracy.
problem Accurate forecasting of EUR/USD exchange rate.
method Combines large language models for sentiment analysis, deep learning for forecasting, and feature selection.
result Optuna-optimized Bi-LSTM model reduces MAE and RMSE by 10.69% and 9.56% respectively.