A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Toehold purchase, defined here as purchase of one share in a firm by an investor preparing a tender offer to acquire majority of shares in it, reduces by one the number of shares this investor needs for majority. In the paper we construct mathematical models for the toehold and no-toehold strategies and compare the exp…
We consider a class of auctions (Lowest Unique Bid Auctions) that have achieved a considerable success on the Internet. Bids are made in cents (of euro) and every bidder can bid as many numbers as she wants. The lowest unique bid wins the auction. Every bid has a fixed cost, and once a participant makes a bid, she gets…
A new relaxed framework for pricing illiquid derivatives using bid-ask spreads.
problem Pricing illiquid derivatives with realistic bounds and hedging prices.
method Introducing Bid--Ask Martingale Optimal Transport (BAMOT) that relaxes the exact calibration of model marginals to mid-prices of vanilla options.
result BAMOT yields realistic price bounds and superhedging prices for illiquid derivatives.
Real-time advertising allows advertisers to bid for each impression for a visiting user. To optimize specific goals such as maximizing revenue and return on investment (ROI) led by ad placements, advertisers not only need to estimate the relevance between the ads and user's interests, but most importantly require a str…
Models of auctions or tendering processes are introduced. In every round of bidding the players select their bid from a probability distribution and whenever a bid is unsuccessful, it is discarded and replaced. For simple models, the probability distributions evolve to a stationary power law with the exponent dependent…
In this paper a finite discrete time market with an arbitrary state space and bid-ask spreads is considered. The notion of an equivalent bid-ask martingale measure (EBAMM) is introduced and the fundamental theorem of asset pricing is proved using (EBAMM) as an equivalent condition for no-arbitrage. The Cox-Ross-Rubinst…
Taobao, as the largest online retail platform in the world, provides billions of online display advertising impressions for millions of advertisers every day. For commercial purposes, the advertisers bid for specific spots and target crowds to compete for business traffic. The platform chooses the most suitable ads to …
In programmatic advertising, ad slots are usually sold using second-price (SP) auctions in real-time. The highest bidding advertiser wins but pays only the second-highest bid (known as the winning price). In SP, for a single item, the dominant strategy of each bidder is to bid the true value from the bidder's perspecti…
This work optimizes bid strategies for online auctions using measure-valued optimization.
problem Optimizing bid strategies in first-price auctions to maximize expected surplus.
method Formulates the problem as convex optimization over the joint distribution of shading parameters, adapts the distribution after each auction using a Wasserstein-proximal update.
result The proposed algorithm encourages bids on values with high expected surplus.
Predicting click and conversion probabilities when bidding on ad exchanges is at the core of the programmatic advertising industry. Two separated lines of previous works respectively address i) the prediction of user conversion probability and ii) the attribution of these conversions to advertising events (such as clic…
We introduce, in continuous time, an axiomatic approach to assign to any financial position a dynamic ask (resp. bid) price process. Taking into account both transaction costs and liquidity risk this leads to the convexity (resp. concavity) of the ask (resp. bid) price. Time consistency is a crucial property for dynami…
The participants of the electricity market concern very much the market price evolution. Various technologies have been developed for price forecast. SVM (Support Vector Machine) has shown its good performance in market price forecast. Two approaches for forming the market bidding strategies based on SVM are proposed. …
Real-time bidding (RTB) systems, which utilize auctions to allocate user impressions to competing advertisers, continue to enjoy success in digital advertising. Assessing the effectiveness of such advertising remains a challenge in research and practice. This paper proposes a new approach to perform causal inference on…
Microstructure of market dynamics is studied through analysis of tick price data. Linear trend is introduced as a tool for such analysis. Trend arbitrage inequality is developed and tested. The inequality sets limiting relationship between trend, bid-ask spread, market reaction and average update frequency of price inf…
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for determining dynamic ask and bid prices of derivatives using the theory of dynamic coherent acceptability indices in discrete time. We prove a version of the First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing using the dynamic coherent risk measures. We introduce the dynamic …
In recent years, RTB(Real Time Bidding) becomes a popular online advertisement trading method. During the auction, each DSP(Demand Side Platform) is supposed to evaluate current opportunity and respond with an ad and corresponding bid price. It's essential for DSP to find an optimal ad selection and bid price determina…
In the domain of the so called Econophysics some attempts already have been made for applying the theory of Thermodynamics and Statistical Mechanics to economics and financial markets. In this paper a similar approach is made from a different perspective, trying to model the limit order book and price formation process…
The ad-trading desks of media-buying agencies are increasingly relying on complex algorithms for purchasing advertising inventory. In particular, Real-Time Bidding (RTB) algorithms respond to many auctions -- usually Vickrey auctions -- throughout the day for buying ad-inventory with the aim of maximizing one or severa…
The paper proposes estimators for bid-ask spreads with and without serial dependence.
problem Estimating bid-ask spreads in financial markets with and without serial dependence.
method The authors propose moment-based estimators for bid-ask spreads, considering both geometric Brownian motion and geometric fractional Brownian motion for price dynamics, and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for microstructure noise.
result The estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, and perform well compared to existing approaches on simulated data.