Study tail behavior of sum of heavy-tailed risks with copulas.
problem Analyzing the tail behavior of sums of heavy-tailed risks with dependence modeled by copulas.
method Modeling dependence with copulas and analyzing tail asymptotics of sums of heavy-tailed risks.
result Obtained asymptotic expansions for Value-at-Risk of aggregate risk.
Sharp concentration results for sums of heavy-tailed random variables.
problem Analyzing sums of independent heavy-tailed random variables.
method Using concentration inequalities and large deviation principles for distributions satisfying specific tail bounds.
result Sharp concentration inequalities and large deviation results for sums of heavy-tailed random variables.
New tail inequalities for sums of random matrices without matrix-dimension terms.
problem Tail behavior of matrix functions in high-dimensional settings.
method Developed new tail inequalities for matrix sums, independent of matrix dimension.
result Tail inequalities for various matrix functions without matrix-dimension terms.
The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the collective risk model, where the total claim size in a portfolio is the sum of a …
New insights into tail behavior of heavy-tailed random vectors and processes.
problem Understanding tail behavior of aggregates of heavy-tailed random vectors.
method Analyzing multivariate regularly varying random vectors and Lévy processes.
result More than one large jump can determine tail behavior of aggregates.
A perturbative approach is used to derive approximations of arbitrary order to estimate high percentiles of sums of positive independent random variables that exhibit heavy tails. Closed-form expressions for the successive approximations are obtained both when the number of terms in the sum is deterministic and when it…
We derive exponential tail inequalities for sums of random matrices with no dependence on the explicit matrix dimensions. These are similar to the matrix versions of the Chernoff bound and Bernstein inequality except with the explicit matrix dimensions replaced by a trace quantity that can be small even when the dimens…
We present sharp tail asymptotics for the density and the distribution function of linear combinations of correlated log-normal random variables, that is, exponentials of components of a correlated Gaussian vector. The asymptotic behavior turns out to depend on the correlation between the components, and the explicit s…
Paper establishes sufficient condition for comparing linear combinations of infinite-mean risks.
problem Comparing linear combinations of infinite-mean risks under stochastic dominance.
method Introduced a new class of distributions and used majorization order to compare weights.
result Linear combinations of random variables are stochastically larger when their weight vectors are smaller in majorization order.
Operational measure for assessing fat-tailedness in distributions.
problem Lack of operational measures for assessing fat-tailedness in finite sample sizes.
method Operational measure based on the rate of convergence of the Law of Large Numbers for finite sums.
result Allows practical comparisons across different fat-tailed distributions and parametrizations.
Optimized method tackles convex optimization with heavy-tailed noise.
problem Convex optimization problems with noisy gradients.
method Vanilla stochastic proximal subgradient method without gradient clipping or normalization.
result Achieves optimal complexity for various convex optimization types under heavy-tailed noise.
Develops efficient nonparametric testing with random projections.
problem High computational complexity in nonparametric inference with large data.
method Random projection strategy for kernel ridge regression.
result Achieves testing optimality with minimum number of projections.
Paper introduces new approximations for lognormal sums, matching comonotonicity and moments.
problem Approximating sums of lognormal random variables accurately.
method Introduces new approximations based on weighted distribution theory, emphasizing comonotonicity and moment matching.
result Approximations perform better than classical methods, especially in the right tail of the distribution.
The paper provides a new uniform tail bound for empirical processes.
problem Developing a uniform tail bound for empirical processes indexed by a class of functions.
method Introducing a deflation step to the standard generic chaining argument, and using a natural seminorm based on Cramér functions.
result Established a new uniform tail bound for empirical processes.
This work compresses heavy-tailed weight matrices for tighter generalization bounds.
problem Empirical evidence linking heavy-tailed weight matrices to test set accuracy but lack of formal relationship with generalization bounds.
method Utilized the compression framework to show that heavy-tailed matrices can be compressed, resulting in sparse weight matrices.
result Demonstrated a non-vacuous generalization bound for compressed networks with heavy-tailed weight matrices.
The paper studies discrete sums of geometric Brownian motions in finance.
problem Modeling stochastic annuities and pricing Asian options.
method Analyzes probability distributions and asymptotic behavior of discrete sums of geometric Brownian motions.
result Derives tail asymptotics and computes asymptotic distribution functions for discrete sums.
Optimal algorithm identifies best arm for risk measures in heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Identifying the arm with smallest CVaR, VaR, or weighted sum of CVaR and mean from heavy-tailed distributions.
method Multi-armed bandit best-arm identification framework, solving non-convex optimization problem.
result Optimal δ-correct algorithm with matching lower bound on expected samples.
New algorithms recover signals robustly against outliers and heavy-tailed noise.
problem Estimating signals in the presence of heavy-tailed noise and outliers.
method Sum-of-squares relaxations for robust estimation.
result Recovery of signals in polynomial/quasipolynomial time for specific problems.
Paper studies second order tail probabilities in risk models.
problem Analyzing tail probabilities in risk models with constant interest force.
method Asymptotic expansion and weighted Kesten-type inequality for second order subexponential random variables.
result Second order asymptotic formulae for continuous-time renewal risk models are derived.
The paper introduces a new method for tail bounds of random vectors and matrices.
problem Estimating norms of random vectors and matrices under moment assumptions.
method Variational tail bounds for norms of random vectors and matrices.
result Dimension-free concentration inequalities for various norms of random vectors and matrices.
Geometric framework for signed multivariate tail-dependence compatibility at various thresholds.
problem Modeling and analyzing signed multivariate tail-dependence across different thresholds.
method Developed a geometric witness framework to represent and invert signed tail families, identifying nonnegative weights and normalized masses.
result Characterization and synthesis of signed multivariate tail-dependence at finite thresholds, preserving the complete signed tail family throughout.
The paper examines how small positive dependence can lead to correlated tail risks.
problem Understanding the impact of dependence uncertainty on tail risk measures.
method Introducing a regular dependence measure and analyzing the aggregation of risks.
result Small positive dependence can result in perfectly correlated tail risks.
Novel LSE estimator improves off-policy learning and evaluation.
problem High variance and poor performance with low-quality propensity scores and heavy-tailed reward distributions.
method Introduces a novel estimator based on the log-sum-exponential (LSE) operator.
result Achieves convergence rate of O(n−ε/(1+ε)) for regret bounds. The paper develops concentration inequalities for structured random data, extending beyond independent terms.
problem Developing concentration inequalities for structured weighted sums of random data, including tensors and matrix-valued data.
method The paper develops Hoeffding and Bernstein bounds for structured weighted sums under exchangeability, extending beyond the classical framework of independent terms.
result The paper develops a sharper concentration bound for combinatorial sums of matrix arrays.
Paper develops sparse learning for heavy-tailed time series with locally stationary dynamics.
problem Sparse learning for high-dimensional heavy-tailed locally stationary time series.
method Additive modeling with kernel smoothing, sparsity-inducing penalized estimation.
result Prediction-error bounds and convergence rates for different sparsity structures.
New algorithm reduces heavy-tailed linear bandits' computational cost.
problem Stochastic linear bandits with heavy-tailed noise.
method One-pass online mirror descent with adaptive Huber regression.
result Near-optimal regret bound with reduced computational cost.
Simplifies risk minimization combining mean and standard deviation.
problem Minimizing mean and standard deviation under heavy-tailed losses.
method Adapting robust mean estimation technique to include standard deviation.
result Simple approach performs as well or better than alternative risk criteria.
We introduce a simple generalization of rational bubble models which removes the fundamental problem discovered by [Lux and Sornette, 1999] that the distribution of returns is a power law with exponent less than 1, in contradiction with empirical data. The idea is that the price fluctuations associated with bubbles mus…
We introduce and discuss a nonlinear kinetic equation of Boltzmann type which describes the evolution of wealth in a pure gambling process, where the entire sum of wealths of two agents is up for gambling, and randomly shared between the agents. For this equation the analytical form of the steady states is found for va…
Paper develops new inequalities for high-dimensional statistics under sub-Weibull tail assumptions.
problem High-dimensional statistical methods under sub-Weibull tail assumptions.
method Develops new concentration inequalities for sums of independent random variables under sub-Weibull tail assumptions.
result Concentration inequalities match asymptotics of central limit theorem and match sub-Gaussian tail behavior.
Modeling financial returns as conditionally independent random variables explains power-law tails.
problem Understanding the distribution of financial returns and their relation to volatility.
method Assuming returns are conditionally independent given volatility, which varies randomly over time.
result Returns distribution can be described by the sum of conditionally independent random variables, showing scaling and power-law tails.
Two algorithms tackle heavy-tailed rewards in reinforcement learning with linear function approximation.
problem Online sequential decision-making with heavy-tailed rewards.
method AdaOFUL and VARA algorithms for linear stochastic bandits and MDPs, using modified adaptive Huber regression.
result Achieved state-of-the-art and variance-aware regret bounds for heavy-tailed rewards.
Sample measures of top centile contributions to the total (concentration) are downward biased, unstable estimators, extremely sensitive to sample size and concave in accounting for large deviations. It makes them particularly unfit in domains with power law tails, especially for low values of the exponent. These estima…
The Lugannani-Rice formula is a saddlepoint approximation method for estimating the tail probability distribution function, which was originally studied for the sum of independent identically distributed random variables. Because of its tractability, the formula is now widely used in practical financial engineering as …
We analyze the local Rademacher complexity of empirical risk minimization (ERM)-based multi-label learning algorithms, and in doing so propose a new algorithm for multi-label learning. Rather than using the trace norm to regularize the multi-label predictor, we instead minimize the tail sum of the singular values of th…
Exact tail probability bounds for bounded kurtosis.
problem Determining worst-case tail probabilities under kurtosis constraints.
method AI-guided search and certifying pipeline to compute bounds.
result A four-regime map of tail probabilities with explicit formulas.
We find the exact worst-case tail probability for bounded kurtosis.
problem Determining the worst-case tail probability under bounded kurtosis constraints.
method AI-guided search and certificate verification around the certifying pipeline.
result A four-regime map of tail probabilities with explicit formulas and dual certificates.
Revisits granular models explaining firm growth rates and sizes.
problem Understanding the relationship between firm size and growth rate statistics.
method Developed new theoretical insights linking firm size and growth rate statistics within granular models.
result Growth volatility distribution is size-independent but fat-tailed, challenging granular models.
New algorithm tackles heavy-tailed rewards in RL with instance-dependent regret bounds.
problem Efficient algorithms for RL with heavy-tailed rewards in large state-action spaces.
method Design of \textsc{Heavy-OFUL} for heavy-tailed linear bandits and \textsc{Heavy-LSVI-UCB} for RL with linear function approximation.
result First instance-dependent regret bounds for heavy-tailed rewards in RL with linear function approximation.
Improved concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull variables enhance statistical and machine learning applications.
problem Improving concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull random variables.
method Developed new concentration inequalities for sums of independent sub-Weibull random variables, including a new sub-Weibull parameter.
result New concentration inequalities with sharper constants and a mixture of sub-Gaussian and sub-Weibull tails.
A new robust gradient descent method improves generalization efficiency.
problem Improving off-sample generalization of learning algorithms under heavy-tailed data.
method Smoothed multiplicative noise applied to observations before constructing a sum of soft-truncated gradient coordinates.
result The proposed method achieves competitive theoretical guarantees and efficient generalization over a wide class of data distributions.
Proposes a new sampling policy for ranking and selection problems.
problem Improving ranking and selection in adaptive sampling policies.
method Annealed entropic allocation, using soft-min weights and saddlepoint corrections.
result Consistently competitive performance in various settings.
Sharp concentration inequalities for sub-Orlicz random variables with phase transition at α=2.
problem Developing concentration inequalities for sub-Orlicz random variables with phase transition.
method New theoretical analysis framework involving variance and min/max functions of Orlicz tails.
result Sharp concentration inequalities with phase transition at α=2 for sub-Orlicz random variables.
Manipulation is an important issue for both developed and emerging stock markets. For the study of manipulation, it is critical to analyze investor behavior in the stock market. In this paper, an analysis of the full transaction records of over a hundred stocks in a one-year period is conducted. For each stock, a tradi…
Paper bounds excess risk in robust empirical risk minimization for heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Risk bounds for robust empirical risk minimization in heavy-tailed distributions.
method Proposes robust proxies for expectation to bound excess risk.
result Excess risk of robust estimators can converge to 0 at fast rates.
We study the problem of high-dimensional sparse mean estimation in the presence of an ε-fraction of adversarial outliers. Prior work obtained sample and computationally efficient algorithms for this task for identity-covariance subgaussian distributions. In this work, we develop the first efficient algorithms for rob…
Investigates VaR behavior for sums of one-sided random variables, showing impossibilities and conditions for super-additivity.
problem Investigates the behavior of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for sums of one-sided random variables.
method Analyzes the extremal aggregation behavior of VaR, introduces structural conditions for super-additivity.
result Characterizes when VaR is fully super-additive and provides unified framework for various dependence structures.
This paper approximates SA iterates using Gaussian distributions for tail bounds.
problem Characterizing the distribution of stochastic approximation iterates in finite time.
method Approximating pre-limit distributions of SA iterates by Gaussian sequences with recursively defined covariances.
result Explicit bounds on the Wasserstein-1 distance between rescaled iterates and Gaussians.