We study the effects of non-systematic and systematic mortality risks on the required initial capital in a pension plan, in the presence of financial risks. We discover that for a pension plan with few members the impact of pooling on the required capital per person is strong, but non-systematic risk diminishes rapidly…
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48 results for “systematic risk”
The paper models and prices cyber insurance risks, distinguishing idiosyncratic, systematic, and systemic risks.
problem Modeling and pricing cyber insurance policies, especially for systemic risks.
method Distinguishes three types of cyber risks and proposes methods for their valuation.
result Complex methods are needed for systemic cyber risks, including risk-neutral valuation and monetary risk measures.
Tuning into Climate Risks: Extracting Innovation from Television News for Clean Energy Firmsq-fin.ST
Study uses TV news to measure climate risks affecting clean energy firms.
problem Understanding how climate risks impact clean energy firms' financial stability.
method Developed climate risk measures from TV news coverage and analyzed their effects on clean energy firms' risks.
result Increased TV news coverage of climate risks correlates with higher systematic risk and lower idiosyncratic risk for clean energy firms.
Extends ASRF model for green and brown loans, accounting for systematic and idiosyncratic risks.
problem Credit risk assessment for portfolios of green and brown loans.
method Two-factor copula structure, skewed distributions for systematic risk, Gaussian for idiosyncratic risk, non-uniform exposure setting.
result Portfolio loss convergence to a limit reflecting green and brown loan characteristics.
Paper analyzes systematic jump risk around the clock using news narratives.
problem Identifying and managing priced risks in real-time market conditions.
method Combining high-frequency market data with news narratives classified by an LLM.
result Significant heterogeneity in risk premia, with macroeconomic news commanding the largest premium.
Systematic and multifactor risk models are revisited via methods which were already successfully developed in signal processing and in automatic control. The results, which bypass the usual criticisms on those risk modeling, are illustrated by several successful computer experiments.
Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures (standard deviation, VaR and Expected Shortfall) as well as allocation of risk down to…
Study shows short exposure and systematic risk exposure affect disposition effect asymmetries.
problem Understanding disposition effect in short vs long exposure positions and systematic risk.
method Generalized Odean measures, introduced Value metric, implemented dispositionEffect R package.
result Short positions exhibit weaker disposition effect than long positions under narrow framing, reversing in integrated framing.
Hybrid ML ensemble predicts market risk and generates alpha.
problem Forecasting short-horizon market risk and generating alpha.
method Neural networks and tree-based voting models integrated for trading signal.
result Sharpe ratio of 2.51 and annualized CAPM alpha of +0.28.
Two pension funds mutually insure against longevity risk.
problem Mutual insurance against systematic longevity risk for pension funds.
method Mathematical demonstration and market clearing condition.
result Insurance provides little benefit when fund preferences are similar, but can be beneficial when preferences vary significantly.
Proposes a new risk model using stable laws to manage company-wide losses.
problem Managing aggregate risks and pricing policies in the presence of systematic risk.
method Develops a modified risk model using multivariate stable distributions to account for various risk phenomena.
result Computes the Tail Conditional Expectation of aggregate risks and corresponding allocations.
Modelling China's Credit System with Complex Network Theory for Systematic Credit Risk Controlq-fin.RM
The insufficient understanding of the credit network structure was recognized as a key factor for regulators' underestimation of the destructive systematic risk during the financial crisis that started in 2007. The existing credit network research either took a macro perspective to clarify the topological properties of…
Measuring Strategy-Decay Risk: Minimum Regime Performance and the Durability of Systematic Investingq-fin.RM
Measures strategy durability through minimum regime performance, revealing trade-offs between efficiency and resilience.
problem Systematic investing strategies are vulnerable to regime changes, affecting their effectiveness and performance.
method Introduces minimum regime performance (MRP) to quantify the durability of systematic strategies, capturing how performance deteriorates under changing market conditions.
result Higher long-term Sharpe ratios do not always correlate with higher MRP, highlighting a new dimension of portfolio fragility.
Review of uncertainty representation methods in risk management.
problem Inadequate consideration of uncertainty in risk management.
method Systematic literature review of 370 publications.
result Probabilistic methods are predominant, but fuzzy and evidence-based approaches are also useful.
Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures (standard deviation, VaR and Expected Shortfall) as well as allocation of risk down to…
A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis from Big Data and LLMs Perspectiveq-fin.RM
This paper surveys enterprise financial risk analysis from Big Data and LLMs perspectives.
problem Predicting future financial risk of enterprises.
method Systematic literature review of enterprise financial risk analysis approaches from Big Data and LLMs perspectives.
result Offers a holistic synthesis of research methods and key insights.
The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic prospective tables thus built make it possible to project the evolution of the rand…
This paper reviews LLMs for credit risk assessment, creating a taxonomy.
problem Assessing credit risk using financial text analysis.
method Systematic review of 60 papers, focusing on model architectures, data types, and explainability mechanisms.
result Developed a taxonomy of LLM-based credit risk models.
Economic factors significantly influence stock returns, as shown by attribution analysis.
problem The influence of economic factors on stock returns.
method Attribution model using five classic factors and new factors like Market Indices, Consumptions, and Oil Prices.
result Stock returns are exposed to economic news and priced based on risk exposure.
In this paper, we measure systematic risk with a new nonparametric factor model, the neural network factor model. The suitable factors for systematic risk can be naturally found by inserting daily returns on a wide range of assets into the bottleneck network. The network-based model does not stick to a probabilistic st…
The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic prospective tables thus built make it possible to project the evolution of the rand…
The paper proposes a new risk model for foundation models in finance.
problem Understanding how foundation models affect trading strategies' risk and return.
method An extension of the CAPM, separating systematic and idiosyncratic risks.
result Monte Carlo dropout measures the epistemic risk of foundation models.
Risk is part of the fabric of every business; surprisingly, there is little work on establishing best practices for systematic, repeatable risk identification, arguably the first step of any risk management process. In this paper, we present a proposal that constitutes a more holistic risk management approach, a method…
Optimizes investment strategies for retirees with longevity risk.
problem Maximizing retirement savings under longevity risk for a group of investors.
method Analytic and numerical solutions for investment strategies in both discrete and continuous time models.
result Analytic formulae for optimal investment strategies in both discrete and continuous time models.
This paper improves credit risk analysis by incorporating state-dependent recovery rates into a factor model.
problem Accurate default forecasting in credit risk analysis.
method Extends a one-factor Gaussian copula model to include state-dependent recovery rates and a common factor.
result The proposed model outperforms other models in default prediction, especially during hectic periods.
Study analyzes crypto asset risk exposures using a divide-and-conquer approach.
problem Lack of high-frequency macro-financial proxies for estimating risk.
method Two-stage divide-and-conquer approach: first stage estimates idiosyncratic and market risk, second stage identifies latent economy-wide factors.
result Heterogeneous exposures to idiosyncratic and systematic risk across crypto assets.
A Kalman filter reduces valuation risk in business valuation models.
problem Reducing valuation risk in business valuation models.
method Recursive FCFF model with Kalman filtering to adjust WACC.
result Significant reduction in valuation risk by implementing Kalman filter.
Structured factor copulas for modeling the systemic risk of European and United States banksq-fin.ST
The paper models systemic risk in European and U.S. banks using factor copulas.
problem Modeling the joint and conditional distress probabilities of banks across Europe and the U.S.
method Employing Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and factor copulas, the paper proposes multi-factor, structured factor, and factor-vine models.
result Systematic contagion channel drives distress probabilities in the banking system as a whole, while regional factors are important within each region.
There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover losses during the adverse economic downturns; the so-called "downturn LGD" requ…
The paper analyzes risk assessment for cash flows in continuous time using the notion of convex risk measures for processes. By combining a decomposition result for optional measures, and a dual representation of a convex risk measure for bounded \cd processes, we show that this framework provides a systematic approach…
New framework identifies hidden risks and optionality in American options.
problem Underestimation of flexibility and convexity in early-exercise features.
method Introducing stochasticity into underlying determinants to quantify hidden risks and optionality.
result Remedies conventional pricing systems that underestimate optionality.
The downside risk of a portfolio of (equity)assets is generally substantially higher than the downside risk of its components. In particular in times of crises when assets tend to have high correlation, the understanding of this difference can be crucial in managing systemic risk of a portfolio. In this paper we genera…
UniFinEval: Towards Unified Evaluation of Financial Multimodal Models across Text, Images and Videosq-fin.GN
UniFinEval benchmarks financial models across text, images, and videos.
problem Challenges in evaluating financial multimodal models across text, images, and videos.
method Proposes UniFinEval, a unified multimodal benchmark for financial scenarios.
result Gemini-3-pro-preview achieves best performance but still lags behind experts.
Study evaluates three position sizing methods for put-writing on S&P 500 Index options.
problem Underdeveloped practical implementation of short-dated volatility-selling strategies.
method Kelly criterion, VIX-based volatility scaling, hybrid method.
result Ultra-short-dated, out-of-the-money options deliver superior risk-adjusted returns.
Systemic Risk Clustering of China Internet Financial Based on t-SNE Machine Learning Algorithmq-fin.ST
With the rapid development of Internet finance, a large number of studies have shown that Internet financial platforms have different financial systemic risk characteristics when they are subject to macroeconomic shocks or fragile internal crisis. From the perspective of regional development of Internet finance, this p…
Method for factor analysis in short panels without assuming sphericity or Gaussianity.
problem Factor analysis in short panels without assuming sphericity or Gaussianity.
method Pseudo maximum likelihood method and asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant test.
result Systematic risk explains a large part of cross-sectional total variance in bear markets but is not spanned by observed factors.
New method improves privacy risk evaluation of machine learning models.
problem Machine learning models can be vulnerable to membership inference attacks.
method Proposed new inference attack method based on prediction entropy, and introduced privacy risk score metric.
result Existing defense approaches are not as effective as previously reported.
We investigate a multi-factor extension of the asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) model that underlies the capital charges of the "Basel II Accord". In this extended model, it is still possible to derive closed-form solutions for the risk contributions to Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. As an application of the…
Systematic review finds reinforcement learning enhances financial tech performance.
problem Improving financial tech performance through reinforcement learning.
method Systematic review using PRISMA technique.
result RL-based strategies outperform other algorithms in financial tech.
We propose a new methodology based on the Marshall-Olkin (MO) copula to model cross-border systemic risk. The proposed framework estimates the impact of the systematic and idiosyncratic components on systemic risk. Initially, we propose a maximum-likelihood method to estimate the parameter of the MO copula. In order to…
Agent learns to trade currency pairs with improved risk management.
problem Improving systematic FX trading performance with online transfer learning.
method Online inductive transfer learning using feature representation from Gaussian mixture model to a reinforcement learning agent.
result Annualized portfolio information ratio of 0.52, compound return of 9.3%.
Improved earnings predictions through text-morphed earnings calls.
problem Improving earnings prediction models using narrative information.
method Introducing a text-morphing methodology to generate counterfactual transcripts.
result Analysts over-react to sentiment and under-react to risk and uncertainty.
Paper examines risk measure expansions under FGM dependence, improving accuracy at extreme levels.
problem Capturing higher-order tail behavior and dependence effects in risk measures.
method Second-order asymptotic expansions using extreme value theory and regular variation theory.
result Second-order approximations reduce approximation errors, especially at extreme confidence levels.
We develop a dynamic point process model of correlated default timing in a portfolio of firms, and analyze typical default profiles in the limit as the size of the pool grows. In our model, a firm defaults at a stochastic intensity that is influenced by an idiosyncratic risk process, a systematic risk process common to…
New metrics quantify implementation risk in portfolio backtesting, revealing systematic differences in engine implementations.
problem Systematic divergence in backtested portfolio metrics due to differences in engine implementations.
method Formalized implementation risk, proposed four metrics, executed 15 strategies through five engines, analyzed source-code defects.
result Implementation risk introduces measurable ambiguity in performance attribution, but does not alter investment decisions.
Risk-Constrained Kelly Gamblingq-fin.PM
We consider the classic Kelly gambling problem with general distribution of outcomes, and an additional risk constraint that limits the probability of a drawdown of wealth to a given undesirable level. We develop a bound on the drawdown probability; using this bound instead of the original risk constraint yields a conv…
Study on estimating conditional risk in machine learning.
problem Estimating expected loss of prediction models given input features.
method Analyzed in classification and regression settings, showing equivalence to standard regression. Developed theoretical insights and empirical validation.
result Conditional risk calibration is distinct from existing uncertainty quantification problems.
Within the context of capital adequacy, we study comonotonicity of risk measures in terms of the primitives of the theory: acceptance sets and eligible, or reference, assets. We show that comonotonicity cannot be characterized by the properties of the acceptance set alone and heavily depends on the choice of the eligib…