A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method combines model forecasts and real-time observations for hourly wind speed predictions.
Dark matter in the universe evolves through gravity to form a complex network of halos, filaments, sheets and voids, that is known as the cosmic web. Computational models of the underlying physical processes, such as classical N-body simulations, are extremely resource intensive, as they track the action of gravity in …
The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope will complete its survey in 2022 and produce terabytes of imaging data each night. To work with this massive onset of data, automated algorithms to classify astronomical light curves are crucial. Here, we present a method for automated classification of photometric light curves for a…
Quarter-hour market bursts predict algorithmic trading and returns in crypto futures.
Hour-Aware Adaptive Risk Management for Autonomous Memecoin Trading
In foreign exchange markets monotonic rate changes can be observed in time scale of order of an hour on the days that governmental interventions took place. We estimate the starting time of an intervention using this characteristic behavior of the exchange rates. We find that big amount of interventions can shift the a…
Study analyzes order transitions in high, medium, and low market cap stocks using Markov chains.
With the increasing penetration of solar power into power systems, forecasting becomes critical in power system operations. In this paper, an hourly-similarity (HS) based method is developed for 1-hour-ahead (1HA) global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting. This developed method utilizes diurnal patterns, statistic…
Inter-subject variability between individuals poses a challenge in inter-subject brain signal analysis problems. A new algorithm for subject-selection based on clustering covariance matrices on a Riemannian manifold is proposed. After unsupervised selection of the subsets of relevant subjects, data in a cluster is mapp…
Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in hospitalized patients and can lead to serious medical complications. In order to optimally predict AKI before it develops at any time during a hospital stay, we present a novel framework in which AKI is continually predicted automatically from EHR data over the entire hospit…
This is a report of our lessons learned building acoustic models from 1 Million hours of unlabeled speech, while labeled speech is restricted to 7,000 hours. We employ student/teacher training on unlabeled data, helping scale out target generation in comparison to confidence model based methods, which require a decoder…
Time-warping improves RNN transfer learning for diverse time scales.
Can we automatically design a Convolutional Network (ConvNet) with the highest image classification accuracy under the runtime constraint of a mobile device? Neural architecture search (NAS) has revolutionized the design of hardware-efficient ConvNets by automating this process. However, the NAS problem remains challen…
HotNAS reduces AI search time from hundreds of GPU hours to less than 3 GPU hours.
Can we automatically design a Convolutional Network (ConvNet) with the highest image classification accuracy under the latency constraint of a mobile device? Neural Architecture Search (NAS) for ConvNet design is a challenging problem due to the combinatorially large design space and search time (at least 200 GPU-hours…
Study develops electronic phenotypes of ICU patient acuity.
Optimal scheduling of hydrogen production in dynamic pricing power market can maximize the profit of hydrogen producer; however, it highly depends on the accurate forecast of hydrogen consumption. In this paper, we propose a deep leaning based forecasting approach for predicting hydrogen consumption of fuel cell vehicl…
LLT improves cryptocurrency price movement prediction accuracy.
In this paper, we propose and investigate a variety of distributed deep learning strategies for automatic speech recognition (ASR) and evaluate them with a state-of-the-art Long short-term memory (LSTM) acoustic model on the 2000-hour Switchboard (SWB2000), which is one of the most widely used datasets for ASR performa…
Observations of astrophysical objects such as galaxies are limited by various sources of random and systematic noise from the sky background, the optical system of the telescope and the detector used to record the data. Conventional deconvolution techniques are limited in their ability to recover features in imaging da…
MetNet forecasts precipitation up to 8 hours with high spatial and temporal resolution.
Data set tracks real-time election results for 4 hours post-October 2019 Portuguese elections.
System predicts respiratory failure up to 8 hours early.
Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, o…
Stage-based hyper-parameter optimization reduces GPU-hours and training time.
Can we reduce the search cost of Neural Architecture Search (NAS) from days down to only few hours? NAS methods automate the design of Convolutional Networks (ConvNets) under hardware constraints and they have emerged as key components of AutoML frameworks. However, the NAS problem remains challenging due to the combin…
Study finds recurring patterns in cryptocurrency volatility and liquidity.
Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) is now a common tool for audio source separation. When learning NMF on large audio databases, one major drawback is that the complexity in time is O(FKN) when updating the dictionary (where (F;N) is the dimension of the input power spectrograms, and K the number of basis spectra),…
Upcoming synoptic surveys are set to generate an unprecedented amount of data. This requires an automatic framework that can quickly and efficiently provide classification labels for several new object classification challenges. Using data describing 11 types of variable stars from the Catalina Real-Time Transient Surv…
Financial markets worldwide do not have the same working hours. As a consequence, the study of correlation or causality between financial market indices becomes dependent on wether we should consider in computations of correlation matrices all indices in the same day or lagged indices. The answer this article proposes …
Deep network clusters hospital patients' vital signs.
Identifying patients who will be discharged within 24 hours can improve hospital resource management and quality of care. We studied this problem using eight years of Electronic Health Records (EHR) data from Stanford Hospital. We fit models to predict 24 hour discharge across the entire inpatient population. The best …
This paper accelerates D-PSGD and AD-PSGD for large-scale deep learning tasks.
DL improves precipitation nowcasting from radar images.
Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of the…
SIFT reduces training time by selecting samples with approximate losses.
Simple 1D-CNN network predicts electricity loads 36 hours ahead.
Discrete random variables are natural components of probabilistic clustering models. A number of VAE variants with discrete latent variables have been developed. Training such methods requires marginalizing over the discrete latent variables, causing training time complexity to be linear in the number clusters. By appl…
NLE embeds labels for domain adaptation with neural networks.
We explore efficient neural architecture search methods and show that a simple yet powerful evolutionary algorithm can discover new architectures with excellent performance. Our approach combines a novel hierarchical genetic representation scheme that imitates the modularized design pattern commonly adopted by human ex…
Study developed phenotypes for ICU patients' brain dysfunction states.
We present RAPID (Real-time Automated Photometric IDentification), a novel time-series classification tool capable of automatically identifying transients from within a day of the initial alert, to the full lifetime of a light curve. Using a deep recurrent neural network with Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), we present th…
AI agents on social networks rarely engage in extended conversations.
Recent work has shown how to train Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) rapidly on large image datasets, then transfer the knowledge gained from these models to a variety of tasks. Following [Radford 2017], in this work, we demonstrate similar scalability and transfer for Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) for Natural La…
Neural network-based post-processing improves ensemble forecast sharpness
Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their trajectory paths is critical to reduce economic loss and save human lives. Given th…
Stochastic principal component analysis (SPCA) has become a popular dimensionality reduction strategy for large, high-dimensional datasets. We derive a simplified algorithm, called Lazy SPCA, which has reduced computational complexity and is better suited for large-scale distributed computation. We prove that SPCA and …
Consumer Demand Response (DR) is an important research and industry problem, which seeks to categorize, predict and modify consumer's energy consumption. Unfortunately, traditional clustering methods have resulted in many hundreds of clusters, with a given consumer often associated with several clusters, making it diff…