New algorithms improve sampling from complex distributions.
problem Sampling from complex probability distributions efficiently.
method Regime-switching Langevin dynamics and Monte Carlo algorithms.
result Convergence guarantees and iteration complexities provided.
Markov regime switching models have been used in numerous empirical studies in economics and finance. However, the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing the number of regimes in Markov regime switching models has been an unresolved problem. This paper derives the asymptotic distribu…
Develops identifiability theory for multi-lag regime-switching models.
problem Ensuring interpretability of deep latent variable models with multi-lag dependencies.
method Formulates a general theoretical framework for multi-lag Regime-Switching Models (RSMs), proving identifiability of number of regimes and multi-lag transitions.
result Establishes identifiability conditions for multi-lag regime-switching models, including Markov Switching Models and Switching Dynamical Systems.
Regime switching volatility models provide a tractable method of modelling stochastic volatility. Currently the most popular method of regime switching calibration is the Hamilton filter. We propose using the Baum-Welch algorithm, an established technique from Engineering, to calibrate regime switching models instead. …
We study the problem of dynamically trading futures in a regime-switching market. Modeling the underlying asset price as a Markov-modulated diffusion process, we present a utility maximization approach to determine the optimal futures trading strategy. This leads to the analysis of the associated system of Hamilton-Jac…
Paper derives analytical formulas for NLD-CEV moments with regime switching.
problem Analytical tractability of NLD-CEV models under stochastic regimes.
method Hybrid system approach using Feynman-Kac formula for solving interconnected PDEs.
result Exact closed-form expressions for fractional-order conditional moments.
Study optimal liquidation with multiple regimes using BSDEs with singular terminal values.
problem Optimal liquidation with regime switching in dark pools.
method Introduced a system of BSDEs with jumps and singular terminal values.
result Existence and uniqueness results for the BSDE system are obtained.
Pricing financial or real options with arbitrary payoffs in regime-switching models is an important problem in finance. Mathematically, it is to solve, under certain standard assumptions, a general form of optimal stopping problems in regime-switching models. In this article, we reduce an optimal stopping problem with …
A hybrid approach detects financial market regime switches using PCA and k-means.
problem Detecting regime switches in financial markets for trend forecasting.
method Dimensionality reduction with PCA and clustering with k-means.
result Trading strategies based on detected regimes show improved performance.
Model captures external influences through random parameters and regime switching.
problem Capturing external influences in asset dynamics with uncertainty and regime changes.
method Developed a stochastic model with random parameters and regime switching, mathematically consistent and interpretable.
result Demonstrated the model's versatility through local volatility models and characteristic functions.
We have developed a statistical technique to test the model assumption of binary regime switching extension of the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model by proposing a new discriminating statistics. Given a time series data, we have identified an admissible class of the regime switching candidate models for the statist…
Study optimal portfolios in a non-Markovian regime-switching model with random time horizon.
problem Optimal portfolio selection in a market with non-Markovian regime-switching and random time horizon.
method Formulated as a constrained stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problem, derived closed-form expressions for optimal portfolios and efficient frontier.
result Closed-form expressions for optimal portfolios and efficient frontier derived under non-Markovian regime-switching and random time horizon.
Investigates optimal portfolio selection with regime-switching-induced stock price shocks.
problem Mean-variance portfolio selection with regime-switching and stock price jumps.
method Modeling regime-switching and stock price jumps, deriving optimal portfolio strategy and efficient frontier using ODEs.
result Added complexity due to regime-switching-induced stock price shocks, leading to nonlinear ODEs.
Study optimal stopping times under regime-switching models with constraints.
problem Optimal stopping times for discounted payoffs on a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion.
method Solve variational inequality to find value functions and optimal thresholds.
result Existence and expressions of optimal stopping times under specific conditions.
New algorithm learns switching dynamics from multiple neural signals.
problem Learning accurate switching dynamical system models from multimodal neural data.
method Unsupervised learning algorithm for multiscale switching dynamical system models.
result Switching multiscale dynamical system models outperform single-scale models in behavior decoding.
Study improves S&P 500 volatility forecasting through regime-switching methods.
problem Accurate prediction of S&P 500 volatility for risk management and investment.
method Regime-switching methods including soft Markov switching, spectral clustering, and coefficient-based clustering.
result Coefficient-based clustering algorithm outperformed other models during all time periods.
A new method for pricing European options in changing market conditions.
problem Lack of closed-form solutions for pricing European options in regime-switching models.
method Physics-informed residual learning (PIRL) for efficient option pricing.
result PIRL eliminates the need for retraining and offers near-instantaneous pricing.
The paper optimizes portfolios using a new GARCH model with regime switching and tempered stable innovations.
problem Mitigating left tail risk in multi-asset portfolios.
method Proposes a Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation (MRS-MNTS-GARCH) for portfolio optimization.
result Optimal portfolios with tail risk measures outperform standard deviation-based portfolios and equally weighted portfolios in various performance metrics.
Framework models multiscale dynamics with Bayesian learning for regime changes.
problem Analyzing complex interactions between fast and slow processes.
method Hierarchical state-space modeling with Sequential Monte Carlo.
result Bayesian approach accurately tracks state transitions and identifies switching dynamics.
Investigates JM for reducing downside risk in market regimes.
problem Mitigating downside risk during market downturns.
method Statistical jump model for identifying market regimes, optimizing penalty for state transitions.
result JM-guided strategies outperform traditional models in reducing risk and enhancing returns.
This paper studies the optimal VIX futures trading problems under a regime-switching model. We consider the VIX as mean reversion dynamics with dependence on the regime that switches among a finite number of states. For the trading strategies, we analyze the timings and sequences of the investor's market participation,…
In this paper, we consider the problem of pricing discretely-sampled variance swaps based on a hybrid model of stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate with regime-switching. Our modelling framework extends the Heston stochastic volatility model by including the CIR stochastic interest rate and model paramete…
Model predicts risk-adjusted returns across various financial markets.
problem Stationary models fail in predicting risk-adjusted returns due to market regime changes.
method Asset-independent regime-switching model using hidden Markov models.
result Accurately detects bull, bear, and high volatility periods for improved risk-adjusted returns.
Optimal credit and consumption strategies in a switching market with default contagion.
problem Optimal portfolio and consumption decisions in a credit market with default contagion.
method Cobb-Douglas utility, recursive ODE system, backward solution from all-default state.
result Existence and uniqueness of optimal feedback controls, verification theorem.
The article detects market regimes from covariance matrices using VLSTAR and clustering models.
problem Market regime switching is hard to detect due to time-varying correlation coefficients.
method The article applies VLSTAR and unsupervised hierarchical clustering on monthly realized covariance matrices.
result VLSTAR outperforms clustering in detecting market regimes.
In this paper, we consider a discrete time economy where we assume that the short term interest rate follows a quadratic term structure of a regime switching asset process. The possible non-linear structure and the fact that the interest rate can have different economic or financial trends justify the interest of Regim…
Algorithm solves American options with regime-switching using multigrid and compact finite difference.
problem Pricing American put options with regime-switching.
method Multigrid iterative algorithm based on compact finite difference schemes and Hermite interpolation.
result The algorithm provides a fast and efficient tool for pricing American put options with regime-switching.
Model interest rates and energy futures with regime-switching dynamics.
problem Modeling interest rates and energy futures with regime-switching dynamics.
method HJM model with Markov-chain modulated forward rates, proving affine structure for term structure.
result Explicit solutions for forward curves in many cases.
New model identifies regimes in non-stationary data.
problem Identifying latent regimes in non-stationary systems with instantaneous effects.
method Identifiable Markov Switching Models with exponential family noise.
result Established identifiability of latent regimes and causal structures.
Algorithm for bandits with switching costs achieves optimal regret bounds.
problem Optimal regret bounds for stochastic and adversarial bandits with switching costs.
method Adaptation of Tsallis-INF algorithm with no prior knowledge of regime or time horizon.
result Achieves minimax optimal regret bounds in various settings.
Optimizes consumption under regime-switching economic states with risk-sensitive preferences.
problem Optimizing consumption in an economy with uncertain states and random shocks.
method Risk-sensitive optimization of consumption-utility with a Markov chain model of economic states and i.i.d. random shocks.
result Existence of unique optimal policy and value function in stationary policies.
In this paper, we consider the optimal dividend problem for a company. We describe the surplus process of the company by a diffusion model with regime switching. The aim of the company is to choose a dividend policy to maximize the expected total discounted payments until ruin. In this article, we consider a hybrid div…
We consider option pricing in a regime-switching diffusion market. As the market is incomplete, there is no unique price for a derivative. We apply the good-deal pricing bounds idea to obtain ranges for the price of a derivative. As an illustration, we calculate the good-deal pricing bounds for a European call option a…
Develops a new model to better predict corporate bond yields.
problem Persistent shifts in interest rates undermine single-regime models.
method Regime-switching generalized CIR model with two-state short-rate process and credit factors.
result The model improves joint curve fit and delivers interpretable probabilities.
This work models market regimes using CTMSTOU and simulates trading policies.
problem Defining and understanding market regimes in finance.
method Discrete event time multi-agent market simulation with CTMSTOU model.
result Illustrates the importance of regime-awareness in trading policies.
This paper is concerned with cost optimization of an insurance company. The surplus of the insurance company is modeled by a controlled regime switching diffusion, where the regime switching mechanism provides the fluctuations of the random environment. The goal is to find an optimal control that minimizes the total co…
Paper solves complex game theory problems with new equations.
problem Zero-sum stochastic games with non-Markovian switching.
method New multidimensional SRE and BSDE solutions.
result Existence and uniqueness of SRE solutions.
This paper proposes a multi-scale Markov-Switching GARCH model for EUR/USD volatility.
problem Non-stationary financial volatility requires models that capture changing market conditions across multiple timescales.
method Triple-timeframe Markov-Switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) framework with AR(1)-MS-GARCH models and TVTP for short horizons.
result The proposed model produces statistically distinct regimes and superior volatility forecasting performance.
Paper extends Lévy models with memory to better price FX double barrier options.
problem Efficiently pricing double barrier options in complex FX models.
method Introduces regime-switching Lévy models with memory and a modified numerical method.
result New models and method improve accuracy of option pricing.
This paper investigates the hedging performance of pegged foreign exchange market in a regime switching (RS) model introduced in a recent paper by Drapeau, Wang and Wang (2019). We compare two prices, an exact solution and first order approximation and provide the bounds for the error. We provide exact RS delta, approx…
Researchers adaptively analyze market regimes to reveal investor behavior shifts.
problem Market relationships shift across different regimes, affecting investor behavior.
method Combining Kalman filtering, Markov-switching, and asymmetric response estimation.
result Foreign investors' predictive power increases during crises, while individual investors react more strongly to positive shocks.
Pricing and hedging rainbow options using Bayesian MS-VAR process.
problem Pricing and hedging rainbow options under varying economic conditions.
method Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) process to model regime-switching economic variables.
result Model provides a simpler and more economic variable-dependent approach for rainbow options pricing and hedging.
Paper addresses uncertainty in model generalization under regime shifts.
problem Uncertainty in model generalization under regime changes.
method Proposes a framework to quantify and separate regime mismatch and sensitivity.
result Obtains exact decomposition and minimax lower bound for regime-aware models.
This paper studies the bail-out optimal dividend problem with regime switching under the constraint that the cumulative dividend strategy is absolutely continuous. We confirm the optimality of the regime-modulated refraction-reflection strategy when the underlying risk model follows a general spectrally negative Markov…
The paper solves a complex control problem with stochastic elements and switching conditions.
problem Non-homogeneous stochastic LQ control with regime switching and random coefficients.
method Explicit optimal control and value obtained through two systems of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). Existence and uniqueness of solutions proved using BMO martingales and contraction mapping method.
result Explicit optimal state feedback control and optimal value derived for the problem.
New risk measures incorporate economic states to assess crude oil derivatives.
problem Assessing risk in crude oil derivatives with varying economic conditions.
method Introduced regime switching entropic risk measures using Markov chains.
result Closed formulae for risk measures derived, showing term structure and mean-reverting convenience yield.
In this paper we consider the problem of calculating the quantiles of a risky position, the dynamic of which is described as a continuous time regime-switching jump-diffusion, by using Fourier Transform methods. Furthermore, we study a classical option-based portfolio strategy which minimizes the Value-at-Risk of the h…
Optimized portfolio management with dynamic market regimes using RL and OC learning.
problem Mean-Variance portfolio optimization in a regime-switching market.
method Reinforcement learning (RL) with Orthogonality Condition (OC) learning for regime-switching market dynamics.
result OC learning outperforms TD learning in simulated and real market scenarios, leading to better portfolio performance.