A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This work extends identifiability analysis to sequential latent variable models, focusing on Switching Dynamical Systems.
Study approximates financial market with discrete-time models.
New algorithm learns switching dynamics from multiple neural signals.
Develops identifiability theory for multi-lag regime-switching models.
Regime switching volatility models provide a tractable method of modelling stochastic volatility. Currently the most popular method of regime switching calibration is the Hamilton filter. We propose using the Baum-Welch algorithm, an established technique from Engineering, to calibrate regime switching models instead. …
This paper studies deep learning methodologies for portfolio optimization in the US equities market. We present a novel residual switching network that can automatically sense changes in market regimes and switch between momentum and reversal predictors accordingly. The residual switching network architecture combines …
Optimizes control of hybrid systems with multiple switching processes.
In this paper, we consider the problem of pricing discretely-sampled variance swaps based on a hybrid model of stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate with regime-switching. Our modelling framework extends the Heston stochastic volatility model by including the CIR stochastic interest rate and model paramete…
This paper addresses parameter estimation for wave equations with Markovian switching.
New algorithm reduces switching costs in multinomial logit bandit problems.
We have developed a statistical technique to test the model assumption of binary regime switching extension of the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model by proposing a new discriminating statistics. Given a time series data, we have identified an admissible class of the regime switching candidate models for the statist…
Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this work we consider HMMs in continuous time with both constant and switching volati…
Latent force models (LFMs) are hybrid models combining mechanistic principles with non-parametric components. In this article, we shall show how LFMs can be equivalently formulated and solved using the state variable approach. We shall also show how the Gaussian process prior used in LFMs can be equivalently formulated…
New polynomial invariants derived from birack and switch structures.
Pricing financial or real options with arbitrary payoffs in regime-switching models is an important problem in finance. Mathematically, it is to solve, under certain standard assumptions, a general form of optimal stopping problems in regime-switching models. In this article, we reduce an optimal stopping problem with …
Model captures external influences through random parameters and regime switching.
We study the problem of dynamically trading futures in a regime-switching market. Modeling the underlying asset price as a Markov-modulated diffusion process, we present a utility maximization approach to determine the optimal futures trading strategy. This leads to the analysis of the associated system of Hamilton-Jac…
New RL algorithm reduces policy switching cost to loglog(T) with similar regret.
The paper optimizes portfolios using a new GARCH model with regime switching and tempered stable innovations.
Many complex dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. Our Bayesian nonparametric approach utilizes a hiera…
The stochastic knapsack has been used as a model in wide ranging applications from dynamic resource allocation to admission control in telecommunication. In recent years, a variation of the model has become a basic tool in studying problems that arise in revenue management and dynamic/flexible pricing; and it is in thi…
In this paper, we study optimal switching problems under ambiguity. To characterize the optimal switching under ambiguity in the finite horizon, we use multidimensional reflected backward stochastic differential equations (multidimensional RBSDEs) and show that a value function of the optimal switching under ambiguity …
In this paper, we derive the family switching formula of -n two-sphere fiber bundle embedded in a smooth four-manifold fiber bundle. In the smooth category, it is a partial generalization of Fintushel-Stern's argument for four-manifolds. We also derive an algebraic analogue of the family switching formula, allowing the…
Framework models multiscale dynamics with Bayesian learning for regime changes.
Study optimal portfolios in a non-Markovian regime-switching model with random time horizon.
Paper derives analytical formulas for NLD-CEV moments with regime switching.
Study strategic competition in commodity markets using impulse-switching controls.
Markov regime switching models have been used in numerous empirical studies in economics and finance. However, the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing the number of regimes in Markov regime switching models has been an unresolved problem. This paper derives the asymptotic distribu…
Model interest rates and energy futures with regime-switching dynamics.
A new method for pricing European options in changing market conditions.
Bayesian model averaging, model selection and its approximations such as BIC are generally statistically consistent, but sometimes achieve slower rates og convergence than other methods such as AIC and leave-one-out cross-validation. On the other hand, these other methods can br inconsistent. We identify the "catch-up …
Many natural systems, such as neurons firing in the brain or basketball teams traversing a court, give rise to time series data with complex, nonlinear dynamics. We can gain insight into these systems by decomposing the data into segments that are each explained by simpler dynamic units. Building on switching linear dy…
Pricing and hedging rainbow options using Bayesian MS-VAR process.
The problem of optimal switching between nonlinear autonomous subsystems is investigated in this study where the objective is not only bringing the states to close to the desired point, but also adjusting the switching pattern, in the sense of penalizing switching occurrences and assigning different preferences to util…
In this paper, we consider a discrete time economy where we assume that the short term interest rate follows a quadratic term structure of a regime switching asset process. The possible non-linear structure and the fact that the interest rate can have different economic or financial trends justify the interest of Regim…
Code-switching, the alternation of languages within a conversation or utterance, is a common communicative phenomenon that occurs in multilingual communities across the world. This survey reviews computational approaches for code-switched Speech and Natural Language Processing. We motivate why processing code-switched …
Label switching is a phenomenon arising in mixture model posterior inference that prevents one from meaningfully assessing posterior statistics using standard Monte Carlo procedures. This issue arises due to invariance of the posterior under actions of a group; for example, permuting the ordering of mixture components …
Proposes a new model for better speech segmentation.
This paper studies the optimal VIX futures trading problems under a regime-switching model. We consider the VIX as mean reversion dynamics with dependence on the regime that switches among a finite number of states. For the trading strategies, we analyze the timings and sequences of the investor's market participation,…
This paper tackles near-optimal adversarial RL with switching costs, providing algorithms and matching lower bounds.
New algorithms improve sampling from complex distributions.
This work addresses identifiability in sequential data with switching dynamics, introducing a new estimator.
Study optimal stopping times under regime-switching models with constraints.
Paper extends Lévy models with memory to better price FX double barrier options.
Squirrel switches between optimizers for better performance.
New algorithm reduces RL complexity with low switching costs.
Bayesian MS-VAR process improves option pricing models.
Two new models for volatility in Markov-switching environments capture financial time-series properties.