A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Many natural systems, such as neurons firing in the brain or basketball teams traversing a court, give rise to time series data with complex, nonlinear dynamics. We can gain insight into these systems by decomposing the data into segments that are each explained by simpler dynamic units. Building on switching linear dy…
Many complex dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. Our Bayesian nonparametric approach utilizes a hiera…
Using movement primitive libraries is an effective means to enable robots to solve more complex tasks. In order to build these movement libraries, current algorithms require a prior segmentation of the demonstration trajectories. A promising approach is to model the trajectory as being generated by a set of Switching L…
We study the problem of dynamically trading futures in a regime-switching market. Modeling the underlying asset price as a Markov-modulated diffusion process, we present a utility maximization approach to determine the optimal futures trading strategy. This leads to the analysis of the associated system of Hamilton-Jac…
Many real-world systems studied are governed by complex, nonlinear dynamics. By modeling these dynamics, we can gain insight into how these systems work, make predictions about how they will behave, and develop strategies for controlling them. While there are many methods for modeling nonlinear dynamical systems, exist…
We introduce a machine learning approach for extracting fine-grained representations of protein evolution from molecular dynamics datasets. Metastable switching linear dynamical systems extend standard switching models with a physically-inspired stability constraint. This constraint enables the learning of nuanced repr…
System identification of complex and nonlinear systems is a central problem for model predictive control and model-based reinforcement learning. Despite their complexity, such systems can often be approximated well by a set of linear dynamical systems if broken into appropriate subsequences. This mechanism not only hel…
Latent force models (LFMs) are hybrid models combining mechanistic principles with non-parametric components. In this article, we shall show how LFMs can be equivalently formulated and solved using the state variable approach. We shall also show how the Gaussian process prior used in LFMs can be equivalently formulated…
To survive environmental conditions, cells transcribe their response activities into encoded mRNA sequences in order to produce certain amounts of protein concentrations. The external conditions are mapped into the cell through the activation of special proteins called transcription factors (TFs). Due to the difficult …
A natural generalization of interval exchange maps are linear involutions, first introduced by Danthony and Nogueira. Recurrent train tracks with a single switch provide a subclass of linear involutions. We call such linear involutions non-classical interval exchanges. They are related to measured foliations on orienta…
We propose an efficient inference method for switching nonlinear dynamical systems. The key idea is to learn an inference network which can be used as a proposal distribution for the continuous latent variables, while performing exact marginalization of the discrete latent variables. This allows us to use the reparamet…
Estimates hybrid dynamical systems with polynomial expansions and Markovian switching.
problem Identifying hybrid dynamical systems with nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) components and Markovian switching.
method Probabilistic framework using Expectation Maximization for parameter estimation, including submodel coefficients, hidden state values, and transition probabilities. Disentangles mode classification and NARX regression tasks. Uses soft-labels and coordinate descent approach for parameter fitting.
result Demonstrated on a SMNARX problem with three nonlinear sub-models, achieving parsimonious models through l1-norm bridge estimation and hard-thresholding.
The paper solves a complex control problem with stochastic elements and switching conditions.
problem Non-homogeneous stochastic LQ control with regime switching and random coefficients.
method Explicit optimal control and value obtained through two systems of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). Existence and uniqueness of solutions proved using BMO martingales and contraction mapping method.
result Explicit optimal state feedback control and optimal value derived for the problem.
In this paper, we investigate the non-stationary combinatorial semi-bandit problem, both in the switching case and in the dynamic case. In the general case where (a) the reward function is non-linear, (b) arms may be probabilistically triggered, and (c) only approximate offline oracle exists \cite{wang2017improving}, o…
This paper studies the optimal VIX futures trading problems under a regime-switching model. We consider the VIX as mean reversion dynamics with dependence on the regime that switches among a finite number of states. For the trading strategies, we analyze the timings and sequences of the investor's market participation,…
We study an open problem of risk-sensitive portfolio allocation in a regime-switching credit market with default contagion. The state space of the Markovian regime-switching process is assumed to be a countably infinite set. To characterize the value function, we investigate the corresponding recursive infinite-dimensi…